The Tempest Has Left The Teapot

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

The Greasy PIIG
No, not some new Barbecue restaurant in Kansas City or Memphis but our old favorite haunt including and surrounding Athens. In the last few days they have trooped around Europe, Aegean Fiddler’s hat in hand, asking for more time to implement their agreed upon austerity programs. That is what they claimed of course as it was one more fabricated tact to get more money. It is nothing other than that.
The strategy was to ask for an extension of time in sentence one and then follow up in sentence two with the argument that since they needed more time that they would need more money until the various programs were implemented. Implementation, however, is obviously not a word to be found in the Greek language or if it is then it is to be found under the heading of “old Greek legend” or “tales of brave Ulysses” or “myths of the Greek gods.”
Merkel and Hollande both had the same retort to all of this pretense which was that they wanted Greece to remain in the Eurozone but that there would be no extensions and that Greece had to stick to the bailout agreement. Consequently no second sentence was spoken which was the purpose of the European walk about and so the mission was a failure. There will never come a time when Berlin or Paris will say anything else other than they want Greece to remain in the Eurozone; so never expect it. The showdown will come over money and whether it will be given or not which will then either be one more bundle of Euros down the rabbit hole where its value will decrease like a shrinking Alice or the end to the handout which would force the return of Greece to the Drachma. All of this will ostensibly be decided sometime in October after the Troika report except they already have the report in all but its formal version and they are agonizing between tossing good money after bad or turning over one more losing hand in resignation. This card game cannot continue ad infinitum and it is now really a question of the politics in Germany and what that will force Ms. Merkel to do. There is increasing displeasure in Germany with this little party and the political pressures may well force an end to this game of charades where the debt to GDP ratio of Greece is thought of as anything other than an unmitigated disaster and where bills cannot be paid along with the promises. Over the weekend the Netherlands Prime Minister said he was done and the German Finance Minister has said he was done so we shall all watch how long the Faustian deal with the Devil remains in force.
The time has come to prove by deeds
that man will not quake before the pit where fantasy
condemns itself to tortures of its own creation
when he advances to the narrow passageway
about whose mouth infernal flames are blazing
Approach the brink serenely and accept the risk
                   -Goethe, Faust 57
The carnage continues. I recall vividly when the Prime Minister of Belgium stated that Dexia would only affect the debt to GDP ratio for Belgium by one percent. He did not count the contingent liabilities in his calculation of course and I called him out on his projection at the time stating that it was some Belgian waffle type of fantasy. Now the fantasy is proving itself to be just that as the losses continue to mount and are $16 billion in the last eighteen months which will have to be borne by Belgium (60.5%) and France (36.5%) and Luxembourg (3.0%). The guarantees for Dexia, I predict, will continue to rise and will exceed more than $125 billion and perhaps much more than that. As contingent liabilities become real losses they will hit the balance sheets of these three countries and I think that both Belgium and France will be forced to take material hits to their ledgers which will cause both downgrades and increased costs of funding. I would be avoiding or selling the credits of these two countries now.
I have been saying for about a year that Portugal will be forced back to the PIIGS’ trough and you may expect it now to come sooner rather than later. The projections for Portugal during the past year have been whims and fanciful merriment meant to lull the watchers into sleep and they have been fairly effective. Now, however, the real numbers begin to roll out and they are dismal. Portugal, the EU and the IMF had projected a revenue increase of 2.6%, which I have often disputed, and Portugal finally reported out actual receipts that were -3.5% as the economy continued to contract and as unemployment hit 15%. With a deficit target of 4.5% Portugal will now need to find another $3.5-4.0 billion to bridge the gap. Much of the projections for Portugal were based upon ending the 13th and 14th month salary bonuses but this was declared unconstitutional and was never corrected by the legislature. The Troika arrives today in Lisbon and we are already hearing the echoes of Greece calling for more time, extensions and diminished austerity measures. As is the case for Greece you may expect a second sentence which is the asking for additional funding. Expect Portugal to be back in the headlines soon.
China & the American Infection
Prepare yourself and not just for some news from a far off land but for data that will absolutely affect the United States and Europe. China is hitting the wall and whether it is caused by Europe or of their own making; the wall is no less real. Caterpillar, one of America’s bellwether companies, who relies upon China for 25% of their revenues is going to be one of the affected companies and in a major fashion. Their sales of mining equipment have plunged the most since January 2009 and this is the fifteenth month of decline. Sales of machinery for the building and construction industries are also in a serious slump. In the coal industry, now at a virtual standstill, machinery sales were off 53% in July and the total fixed income asset investments in this sector have plummeted from 19% to 3% giving you some idea of the severity of the situation.
If you are smart you will take a look at your holdings and note which companies receive a significant portion of their earnings from China. I make no specific recommendations but I point to any and every company where the Chinese revenues make up a meaningful part of their corporate revenues and earnings and factor in a meaningful decline because that is what I think will be occurring. I believe the decline will take place across all sectors and all industries as the growth engine that has driven so many of the markets grinds to much lower levels which I have projected to be around 4.0% and may be worse than that. We are facing a Europe in recession and China perhaps approaching one several quarters out and here is one more drag upon the United States that I think will drive the world into a global recession by the end of the first quarter of 2013.
This is German for “Enough” and I think this will be the operative word for the rest of this year. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands over the weekend already used the Dutch word “Genoeg,” which is their equivalent word, in reference to Greece as he stated clearly and unequivocally that the Netherlands would not fund any proposed third Greek bailout. The entire concept of the protection of Firewalls has failed with the forthcoming capitulation of Spain proving that some sort of supposed protection against speculators does nothing to cure or help the nations that were meant to be protected. Spain will require around $350-400 billion in my view to right itself and the problem is actually squared as a country receiving money then can no longer contribute to the funding of other countries and so the burden then rests upon Germany, France and Italy with Italy like to be the next nation in line for assistance. Then Germany and France with a combined GDP of $6.2 trillion just do not have enough capacity to fund all of Europe without serious downgrades and vastly increased costs of funding. The first instance reaction to move capital out of the troubled nations and into the strongest of the core nations in Europe will be followed by a capital flight from even these countries as the storm clouds darken and as the financial tempest begins in Europe.
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter says donor states and Austrian taxpayers have reached the “uppermost limit” of their capacity to absorb bailouts for other nations.
I advise you to take note of the political opposition that is coalescing in Europe. The cry across the Continent, in various languages, is “Enough.” All of the grand designs speculated about for the ECB rest upon the use of the EFSF and/or the ESM as stated specifically by Mr. Draghi. Over the weekend the Bundesbank was absolutely critical of any such plans and they were supported by several statements made by Ms. Merkel. It is now dubious, in my view, whether Austria, the Netherlands, Finland and perhaps Germany would support not pledges but more actual money to be used for Greece, Portugal and Spain. The rub is on and the size of these potential programs will, without doubt, affect the funding nations in Europe along with the nations that need the capital. Muddling is no longer possible, delay has run out of road, postponement is no longer an option as recession grips the Continent and as each solvent nation seeks to defend itself.
“Our revels now are ended. These our actors,
As I foretold you, were all spirits and
Are melted into air, into thin air:
And, like the baseless fabric of this vision,
The cloud-capp'd towers, the gorgeous palaces,
The solemn temples, the great globe itself,
Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve
And, like this insubstantial pageant faded,
Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff
As dreams are made on
                       -William Shakespeare, The Tempest

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Inthemix96's picture

Mind I will give those handsome boys from Belgium one thing.

They invented stella artois.  The worlds premium lager.

Fucking genius's

GetZeeGold's picture



Ran out of road.....looks with we're walkin.


TrulyStupid's picture

Stella is marketed in Europe as a standard North America it commands a premium price based on an image makeover.

I prefer Lowenbrau or Tuborg

Desert Irish's picture

If your going to drink Belgium beer stick with the Trappist's - those monks will still be brewing beer long after this latest European cluster fuck has a fork stuck in it.

SWRichmond's picture

Snake piss is your idea of Belgian beer / good beer?  OMFG.

Why would you drink that stuff when you could be drinking something described like this:

"A: Pours a hazy golden-yellow with a creamy eggshell-white head. The head arises from the lively carbonation, and it has more snap, crackle, and pop than a bowl of Rice Krispies. It eventually settles into a thin quarter inch crown, but never goes away completely. Clumps of lacing slide down the glass lazily.

S: Complex doesn't even begin to describe the nose. It's everything you'd expect from a good saison, but with a zesty, spritzy, and very lively fruitiness. Apricot, tart peach, granny smith apple peel, nectarine, and fleshy mango. Touch of mustiness and funk in the background, along with that trademark saison spiciness coming from the yeast (white pepper specifically). Earthy and grassy impressions as well. This is one of the deepest noses I've ever experienced in a beer. Marvelous.

T: Tart tropical fruits on the attack: apricot, peach, nectarine, and pulpy orange. The tartness is quite pleasing. Lip smacking and slightly puckering, but humble enough not to steal the show. Eventually the tart and fruity tastes begin to drop away, revealing the rustic flavors beneath. Grassy, musty, earthy, hint of barnyard. White pepper and coriander spiciness. The finish is a long but subtle medley of tropical fruit, understated tartness, and ghost-like funkiness.

M: Light in body, but silky, slightly creamy, and incredibly smooth. Carbonation is active, but soft and caressing. Light acidity and astringency actually make it even more refreshing and thirst-quenching.

O: This is as near perfection as I've ever experienced. It's so well balanced, and it has a perfect sort of 'flow' to it. Exquisite in its uniqueness. So much of it is intangible too, but entirely delicious. A beer to contemplate if ever there was one."

Or this:

A: Pours a crystal clear medium yellow in color with some moderate amounts of visible carbonation. The beer has a two finger tall fizzy (like ginger ale) white head that reduces to thick layer covering the entire surface of the beer evenly. Light to moderate amounts of lacing are observed.

S: Moderate aromas of light fruit (pear), Belgian yeast, banana, clove, lemon zest, and some floral notes.

T: Very similar to the smell, the taste of this beer starts out with the flavors of light fruits (pear and apple), Belgian yeast with some spiciness, banana, and clove.

M: Light bodied with moderate to heavy amounts of carbonation. Crisp and pretty dry, especially in the finish.

O: This beer is enjoyable and relatively refreshing even though there is a fairly high ABV in which the alcohol is detectable. This is much more of a sipping beer but is very good. Very good example of the style.

LeisureSmith's picture

Mmm, sounds delicious and i'm gonna seek it out, but you left out the funny part of the review: If Charlie Sheen thinks he's winning at life right now, he ain't got shit on me.

Im my huble opinion as far as commercial beers are concerned, you can't go wrong with a cool Urquell. In fact, i think i'm going to not go wrong right now.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey 9_6!

any port in a storm, buckeroo!

mark gets into faust, wich we usta do here back when we had captcha and people actually communicated or got their assz kicked

here is slewie's fave projection of the faust myth:> theWildAss'sSkin

balzac has the best characters! r.e.a.l.

enjoy!  Honore de Balzac's Novel: The Magic Skin [Read online]

fonzannoon's picture

"Muddling is no longer possible, delay has run out of road"




and counting

OneTinSoldier66's picture

Yes, kind of sad.


Until some adult can manage to wrestle the printing press away from the juveniles, we will continue to have keynesian chaos.

CPL's picture

I feel this will end in some insane rally...

Anyone else bullish today?

dingoj's picture

Nope, bullishness died Friday evening. The crisis is coming back with a vengeance.

CPL's picture

yup...definately bullish.


Any news regardless of context or relevance should be considered bullish.   Any news.  It's all so very predictable after watching it for four years.


Why aren't you people in silver and gold and understanding that is the only place you all should be.

Ignorance is bliss's picture

Besides the 800 billion in the stimulus we'll probably also see further trade friction with the U.S.


"Analysts said the government could now steer the value of the yuan lower, after a gain of 4.7pc last year against the dollar. Further export tax rebates could also be used to bail out manufacturers."

ElvisDog's picture

Let me guess, more roads, airports, shopping malls, and factories. Perhaps an apartment building or two.

Venerability's picture

"New" Yahoo Finance message board system means boards totally in hands of Botnets, which veer towards the Short side.

Formal complaints made to SEC and Canadian regulators.

If Yahoo does not open these boards to humans again, it will be prosecuted.

Venerability's picture

Many believe closing the Yahoo Finance message boards to humans played a major role in the Crash of 2008.

Yahoo is, of course, far less influential now. Many believe it is a total joke.

But still, if the purpose of the Yahoo boards is spewing pure propaganda via Script Bots, with no differences of opinion from real human beings allowed, Yahoo has literally no part to play in financial markets.

Everybodys All American's picture

the whole world is becoming more and more bizarre.

Everybodys All American's picture

A relic and an example of what can happen. If bots are taking over news stories it would not be a surprise to see them on the message boards at which point they become worthless. Hope this is not the case. Again does anyone at the SEC care about regulating anything?

Element's picture

Text bots? 

The subprime shake-out was due to massive over-leverage that was not covered by anything significant (well, except the mother of all inflation-press's ... sorry, printing-press's).

slewie the pi-rat's picture

well it IS negative news and you presented it wonderfully, too!

script bots spewing pure financial propaganda online? with robot messaging?  really? 

i like the "many believe" part.  no link?  is it from the message boards?  you said it twice for some reason  perhaps you are in a rush today?

those bots are attacking the email accounts too but that's ok b/c it doesn't effect "markets";  but maybe the bots didn't tell ya about the emails

i got one three weeks ago from a dear friend:  she had been robbed at gunpoint in singapore! everything was gone and if we could just help by sending some money she would really appreciate it b/c she has a new "international " passport issued for her ID so she will be able to cash th money if we just sent it to her @ ________

so i called in in LA and we had a good laugh but she said it was weird b/c she was going to amsterdam the next day!  so now she has g-mail!  what could possibly go wrong there?  but here she is trying to connect with peeps in europe about her travels and jobs and connections and she couldn't get into her own e-mail!

pretty funny huh?  i of course reassured her that it was just the fuking NSA and don't sweat the small stuff about "privacy" b/c they already put a RC chip in her cheek the last time she was at the "dentist" getting overcharged for shit that she didn't need done anyhow  but she has fabulous teeth and she knows it too!

plus a clonie in singapore!  slewie doesn't even have a clonie in singapore yet!  i was tring to be nice but the green guy was just raging!

we can hope that tyler & sac are safely in control of these bots too, like the 50 or so they've allowed on here.  those captchas were rilly slowing em down but...  somebody didn't like the arrangement and s/he has m.o.n.e.y. too! yep!  i am clinically insane too!

if they're not on top of it, perhaps the wingnuts of the religiousRight can operate them, as here!  that way they can go after EVIL all over the wWw and with that "end the FED b/c it is EVIl"  taking the high ground morally in this election,  i think you may need help sooner than even slewie

we have moral bots now who can help people who have no fuking chance of ever thinking straight determine what is evil and also exactly what to do about it and when, too!

people have  no clue as to why say the Treasury is running the US MiNTS instead of the congress as per the CON-stitution, but if it were due to EVIL, the moral bots would tell them immediately and they would "fix it" b/c all ya hafta do is make the EVIL illegal.  immediately!

so i wouldn't be too concerned, but i understand yer pain and what the FUK these bots are capable of achieving on a shady site like yahoo

so thanks

i'm glad you're so pretty!  i would like to fuk you in the ass;  with my boot!  you remind me of somebody but this chronic is rilly bad on what's left of my memory and cognitive abilities...  i don't know why, but i keep thinking:  are you "lou" ?

anyhow, that is the way i feel abt you and i just don't want to hide it any longer

see ya!

slewie the pi-rat's picture

jeez! i almost fergot!

when i called my friend in LA and told her the clonie had written to me asking for "anything i could do to help; if a few people were able to loan her $1500 apiece she would pay us back as soon as she got the hell outa singapore"

she sez:>   they wrote to YOU asking for money?


Everybodys All American's picture

what? Could you explain further or is this just a supposition.

orangegeek's picture

The US Dollar is 60% weighted against the Euro.  When the Euro rises, the US Dollar falls - and when the Euro falls...


machineh's picture

'The first instance reaction to move capital out of the troubled nations and into the strongest of the core nations in Europe will be followed by a capital flight from even these countries as the storm clouds darken and as the financial tempest begins in Europe.'

Maybe. But if the potential emerges for a hard-currency northern euro (the 'neuro'?) or a New Deutschmark, capital inflows will only accelerate.

Whoa Dammit's picture

Guess what, when most people have lost or are in the process of  losing everything that they have worked for, they are not going to support more austerity for themselves just so that the elite can keep being elite. 

ElvisDog's picture

It's articles like these that make ZH so valuable. Try to find information/analysis like this anywhere in the MSM.

Element's picture

And China is a little preoccupied:


China's industrial profits decline; market skeptical on stimulus

eddiebe's picture

It's just all too easy: When in doubt, you print!

Element's picture

It's just all too easy: When in doubt, you print inflation!


Fixed it for you. :)

ElvisDog's picture

I'll believe Germany/Finland/Netherlands will cut off the PIIGS when it happens. They've been talking tough for many months, but when the deadline comes they roll over like over-indulgement parents of a misbehaving teenager.

oogs66's picture

exactly, Finland is probably the only one that can say no because they are small enough and probably don't need to be in the euro anywyas

Mugatu's picture

In the end, TPTB will still do whatever they can to keep the Ponzi scheme going.  There is no "end of the road" when you own the paving machine and the US, EU and China will manipulate the hell out of everything.  Right now, the CB with the most experience in manipulating markets is the U.S., and they have 90+ years of experience in manipulation.  Europe gets 2nd place in manipulation and China is a distant 3rd.  Considering this, it is no fluke that US equities are near a post 2008 high and leading the pack.  The EU is just treading water from 2008, and China is now making new post 2008 lows.  

China may make cheaper washing machines, but they are decades behind in manipulation.  How S&P 500 can be near its highs as the world is entering a new global recession is the greatest market manipulation of all time!

intric8's picture

I think dem mayans are spot on. Picture all this crap playing out on a FB timeline, and the account gets deleted on 12-21-2012

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

All Nations are solvent when they are true nations with money power ......they may become poorer because of coruption , stupidity etc but that is a slightly different matter

For example Irish Oil consumption could be cut much further without throwing people off a monetary cliff by simply producing interest free money and giving it to the railways to subsidise tickets.

The Cork Dubin road would become empty of private cars if rail tickets were 1 Punt a trip.

The cores car Industry would implode however if the edge gained such power.

We are all naturally solvent if we stop becoming conduits to the multinationals and the core countries which they use as bases of operations.


ElvisDog's picture

I think there is a little more to solvency than payouts to multi-national corporations. Do expected future payouts for pensions, healthcare, and so on in Ireland match up with expected tax revenue? They certainly don't in the U.S. and if they don't in Ireland then Ireland isn't solvent over the long term.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Elvis - you tax the money supply ..... if the money supply is not there , you can't tax it.

Anybody with the law of the land on their side can create the money - money and debt are really metaphysical concepts - what matters is natural resourses.

Ireland is probally the most open country to external capital flows in the world ... that and maybe Singapore.

Post 1987~ all of the structures built were designed to capture these criminal capital flows.

Now that these are leaving the building the real resourse input costs are manifesting themselves.

If I print money (which then can be taxed) which reduces the input costs of a country the money will not devalue - no matter how much I print ...indeed if I continue to print money with a net energy gain - the money will increase in value.

If Banks can create credit at will , countries can print.

It will not happen in Ireland of course - its a very absurd place really.

A Island of Fools & Criminals



Some local (& slightly funny) evidence of pent up demand withen Southern France.

SNCF put on a 1 Euro fare structure between Nimes & the Beech resort of Le Grau-du – Roi.
It appeared to attract the street urchins of Nimes to the displeasure of the local traders….
It went so far as the local supermarket closing before the train arrives.

The local paper covers the story,539134.php

Google translate
This room and it laughs hard on the train between Nimes and Le Grau-du-Roi. Five lads romp on one of the benches of 12 h 51 (two oars or five hundred seats). A train under heavy guard. Railway police patrol cars.

One of five teenagers took out his cell phone, connect the speaker and will loop the latest hits to his buddies laughing. One of the SNCF agents pass a smile to the kids and waved off the speaker. The warning was not enough. This time, one of the officers, in uniform, of Suge (monitoring rail) intervenes. A first and a second reprimand … “Next time, it is outside,” the officer tells her hefty.

The teenager is in a tight front of his buddies and then complied. Minutes later, the incident is already forgotten and the laughter and jokes begins again.

Since the return of warm weather, the train from sea to € 1 refueling, or overflow , weekends or Wednesdays. Saturday, 12 h 51 was stormed. Eight hundred people for five hundred seats have arrived at the Gare du Grau du Roi less than an hour later.

And the last two scheduled return from 17 hours were very difficult. “It was borderline unmanageable,” said one witness. At the station, Suge and guards present at each departure were hard pressed to contain the crowd. And the railway police had to intervene on one or even two early fights on the train. Faced with this influx, the SNCF had to adapt its service until the summer (more trains, including a return later) which will begin July 7.

“Oddly enough, on Sunday evening, it is often much quieter,” says a regular. Yesterday, the return of 17 h 12 went off without incident. A dozen officers and gendarmes watched Suge grain at the Gare du Grau du Roi .”

Dork -This illustrates the tensions building between the poor and not so poor as the rich flee to Corsica for the Summer.
The tensions between Black and white.
The tensions between the disenfranchised Young and the Old approaching Pension age.

On a more practical level it illustrates how SNCF needs a massive fiscal subsidy if it is to fill its rail cars and utilise its capital to the maximum extent.
This will save more oil imports then the tradional environmentalists can ever hope to achieve via a UK style de industrialisation programme.


If market state countries were operating as national economies again - they would simply print and if they reduced their input costs the national currencies would rise in value.

If they gifted the commons to the local Oligarchy to waste via private credit creation then their currencies would fall in value.

Thats why the Oligarchy designed the modern market state with no redundency - they want no way out for you.

Renewable Life's picture

Very nicely laid out article, yet still several 1000 pound gorrillas in the room, that weren't mentioned:
Stagflation is firmly entrenching itself, with food and energy prices spiking higher, as natural and man made disasters hit consumers and producers around the world!!!!
Social Unrest has yet to enter the arena, of this "global slowdown", which when this occurs, ala the "Arab Spring", this will take on a life of its own!!

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Based on obvious symbolism the European union is explicitly tied to a new babylon

the parliament building and their original ads are based on a (erroneous) interpretation of the original tower of babylon.


At another building you have Europa riding a bull which can, through the ages trace back to Nimrod (bull and the man of reknown who presided over babylon) and Semiramis (his  whore, consort)


This being the case, the dolts in my opinion who really pull the strings are operating on a level other than economic synergy - which becomes more and more obvious by the day. Without all the countries ceding their sovereignty ( as above the plan from day 1 ) either voluntarily or by the sword - it simply cannot work.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture


Its not a European Union Symbol , its a European pagan thingy - going back to Roman & Greek times.

It operates at a local level also.... it always has.

 here - They run the bulls before the wine gathering and Mistral comes down the Rhone valley.

kevinearick's picture

of course the rats are jumping off the ship. of course the Fed is backstopping Europe.

surely, by now, that we have popped the process of History off the stack, not so divine providence, and the middle class finds itself in the same position it was in before WWII, you can see that the US Constitution is just another civil contract, a pig with pearls, in a long line of contracts written by captal, to be broken by capital at its convenience, enabled by yet another demographic ponzi of stupid consumers of addiction and debt leverage, to the end of exploiting natural resources for the purpose of subsidizing nonperforming capital.

and the middle class as a peer pressure group cannot change its course, because civil marriage is based on the habits of fear, greed, and lies, seeking security and codification in law, to the profit of capital and the debt slavery of the to be born. look in the mirror. capital pays its middle class civil servants to hunt down and expunge natural labor, and then expunges the middle class with the same laws they themselves voted to establish, with increasing efficiency.

the only way not to lose is not to play. i am not telling the kids anything they do not already know about physics. i am showing them the true nature of the middle class and civil marriage, the achilles heel of capital. step aside and the entire system collapses, of its own dead weight.

proLiberty's picture

"Donor states"?? 


Whose money is it and in whose name is the money being borrowed?  Disgusting socialists!

TWSceptic's picture

The Prime Minister of Belgium knows more about drilling stinky holes than finance and economy. I'm confident he has the capability of turning Belgium into another Greece.