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Ten Charts That Show Sentiment Is Anything But Bearish

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Walls-of-worry; Short-squeezes; money-on-the-sidelines; Everyone's Bearish, right? Well, instead of just listening to the drone of the mainstream media and talking heads, who appear once any rally appears in the hope of garnering some more AUM and taking commissions, we thought it worth a few minutes to look at actual data, positions, and sentiment across equity, debt, and FX asset classes. Sure enough - here are ten charts that show investors are anything but bearish and that the ammunition for the next leg from here can only come from central-banks (and we are concerned that disappointment is due).

 

The CBOE's Put-Call Ratio is now in notably overbought (contrarian-wise over-bullish or complacent)

 

AAII Bears low and Bulls/Bears rising rapidly (about +1 sigma bullish)

 

Commitment of Traders in S&P 500 e-mini futures is 'normal' and does not have the ammo to provide another short-squeeze (as it did in September of last year)

 

IG Credit Net Positioning in Europe and the US is near record long

 

High-Yield credit has not participated dramatically in this upside rally

 

Corporate Bond Advance-Decline Line was very recently at extreme highs (rolling over now)

 

Equity Implied Vol is below Realized Vol (somewhat extreme levels of complacency that things stay well-behaved)

 

Credit Implied Vol is below Realized Vol

 

Credit vol skews very complacent (just like stocks)

 

EURUSD and its EUR-USD swap-spread 'fair-value' have converged - removing much of the squeeze factor in that differential (between rate carry and FX carry)

 

So all-in-all, it seems there are fewer suckers on the sidelines to be dragged long into this hope-ridden extravaganza - no matter what you read or hear...

Charts: Bloomberg, BofAML, Morgan Stanley

 

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Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:15 | 2724630 ouchtouch
ouchtouch's picture

How can the CB's print when crude is nearly $100???

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2724641 B-rock
B-rock's picture

They can't.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:34 | 2724717 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Zimbabwe and Weimar Republic respectfully disagree.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:49 | 2724803 ACP
ACP's picture

MBS purchases are still going on:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/ambs/

$6.6 billion just between Aug 9-15 alone, more before and more forever after. This is why corrections have been shallow so far.

Not to mention the Fed's super-subscribed twist.

There is still plenty of printing, and it won't stop.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 15:07 | 2724876 MarkD
MarkD's picture

And making room for more..........

Housing agency changes rule to boost short sales

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-agency-changes-rule-to-boost-sh...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:42 | 2724740 akak
akak's picture

They can, they are and they will.

Clearly, you are not a student of monetary history (nor a shopper).

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:47 | 2724795 Law97
Law97's picture

And most important of all, they must.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:53 | 2724818 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

People don't seem to understand the interest payment dilemma issuing all this debt creates when rates react to issuing all this debt.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:36 | 2724723 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Everyone simply knows they will print unlimited amounts of money is things get bad enough. QE to infinity is here to stay.

 

http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.ca/

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:46 | 2724782 FoxMulder
FoxMulder's picture

The inflation is only transitory. /sarc

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:47 | 2724790 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL - (minus) 1.27%

Silver + (plus) 2.53%

Enuff said,

Silver bitchez

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2724637 VulpisVulpis
VulpisVulpis's picture

Ruinis inminentibus musculi praemigrant

 

(When collapse is imminent, the little rodents flee.)

 

Pliny the Elder

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 15:00 | 2724843 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Goldman is still selling tickets to the rats for the maiden voyage of the Titanic.......packing in a few more before the lines are cast off...."No Rat Left Behind"

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:20 | 2724654 walküre
walküre's picture

Draghi? What's next? What are you gonna do or rather say now, Draghi?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:21 | 2724660 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Pisani was just trying to talk up apple and the spx at his usual feverish pitch. It's so funny how desperate they sound even at these levels.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:26 | 2724679 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

i admire your tolerance (sound on)

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:22 | 2724668 GMan_
GMan_'s picture

they have to print. Joey Greenberg of JP Morgan can't afford his gf's fake tits if they don't print. The banks need the end of year bonuses.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:24 | 2724675 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

Greenberg will Always have fake tit money, if he has to snatch it out of an old ladies hand XD

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:32 | 2724703 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Credit Tit Swaps from securitizing all of the 12 months same as cash breast augmentation payment plans. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:22 | 2724669 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

ROUNDED RECTANGLES RESTORE REALITY

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:30 | 2724699 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Today is the beginning of THE JANJUAH PLUNGE.   Let us bring Bob the Bear back to ZH.   

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:32 | 2724705 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Well, when The Bernank has your back, why not be complacent?  When good news is good for the market and bad news is good for the market, it Market Meth!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:36 | 2724722 Silversem
Silversem's picture

For a CFD trader every market condition is bullish!!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:36 | 2724725 Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

More aptly put...How many Central Banks does it take to make a market?

 

1...with a printing press and enough of a global economy to destroy of course....

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:40 | 2724751 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Is this the mother of all reversals or what, haven't seen this aboutface in a while.....!!!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:41 | 2724753 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I am shocked, SHOCKED that AAPL is not up 2-3% today!!   How do they expect to get retail back into this nightmare?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 15:32 | 2724954 Haager
Haager's picture

That was the big crash this season, now the way up is free again...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:49 | 2724801 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

ah, yes ... the mythical "investors" ...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 15:19 | 2724913 resurger
resurger's picture

"On Bounce Volume" vs "On Plunge Volume"

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 19:20 | 2725645 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Question is, with bond prices rolling over, will the fund managers seeking income pile into dividend paying stocks?

 

 

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