"There’s No Place For Hope On Friday the 13th" - Rout Post-Mortem With Goldman

Tyler Durden's picture

It is always interesting to see how Goldman's sales deks views the day's action.

All might be well in China, but Europe again is a cause for serious concern. Spain is the victim of the most intense violence – CDS trades to new all-time wides, and local banks sent nearly 5% lower. The hope might have been that once European markets closed, US equities would recoup losses. But there’s no place for hope on Friday the 13th, and stocks close at the low. The post-close price action in futures was even worse as ES1 drops further still. Back below the 50d again. Perhaps spillover from weakness in European financials, but problematic as tech, the other obvious leader of the year’s rally, is also flagging. SPX drops 17 to close 1370 (-1.25%). The DOW drops 137 to close 12850 (1.05%). The NASDAQ drops 44 to close 3011 (-1.45%).

The VIX up 2.35 to 19.55.

With Spanish CDS trading 500 for the first time ever, no surprise that the EURO is under pressure. Perhaps surprising that the pressure wasn’t more intense as the recent low still holds and vol, while picking up a bit on the day, is still very near multi-year lows. Notable weakness in MXN as well, as positioning continues to mean a bad day for risk means a very bad day for the currency. USDJPY back to its old, boring ways – 40 pip range today despite the happenings elsewhere. SGD manages to hold onto most its post-MAS gains despite a very negative day for risk assets.

Continued concerns over Europe + equity sell-off = rally in Treasuries. Hard to believe we have rallied back to levels from before the breakout in rates a month ago, with 10y yields back below 2%. Flows were light on the day. Some real money buying the belly before the CPI data and leveraged buying in 5s post-data. While we saw some interest in fading the move near the highs, Treasuries still went out at the highs of the day.

Metals led us broadly lower in commodities on weaker headline data from China and a USD rally overall – gold down 1.1% and silver down 2.2%.  WTI down 0.8% while brent manages to finish up 0.1%.  In ags: sugar down 3%, wheat down 2.2%, and corn down 1.3%.

Post China GDP and ECB headlines, credit sold off with the market finding support at 100.375 for IG and 95.125 for HY; following HY dropped 0.5 with no buyers. IG closed at 102 and HY closed at 94.875.

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barliman's picture


We can HOPE the central bank Ponzi comes unraveled


TruthInSunshine's picture

I literally remember days in mid to late 2008 like they were yesterday. The Dow was dropping 500+, the Naz 100+ and the Spooz 50+ on a routine, daily basis. 

This is not even a drop, let alone a correction. This is horseshit.


We're still in a secular bear market. We've been in one since the early 90s. We're sitting at NOMINAL LEVELS on the indexes of 13 years ago, and levels in REAL TERMS that are 55% lower today than back then.

There's not a question as to whether stocks, and for that matter, the broadest bask of 'risk assets,' along with many assets deemed 'safe,' such as investment grade bonds (whether sovereign or corporate) are massively overvalued. They are. By miles (thanks to unprecedented activism of the most idiotic variety by central fractional reserve banking geniuses).

The only reasonable questions at this point are whether everything unwinds in a cascade, ala 2008 or 1933, or by a far more gradual but mentally & emotionally brutal (for dip buyers and bagholders alike) fall down a long set of stairs, ala Nikkei circa-1989 onward (or downward, more accurately stated, as it is and has been for 22 years).

Caviar Emptor's picture

It's like this: they won't allow a crash (or cascade as you put it). Instead all paper assets will be debauched over time, the purchasing power of their nominal values pulverized into assymptotic nothingness. 

What they want is for people like you and me to exchange something of real value in exchange for their crap: a real asset like gold, or the present value of your hard earned wealth in any form (your savings or a piece of your rvenue). Once they've got it, they'll hand you an IOU (a stock, a bond etc...). And then they've got you since they'll repay in Monopoly money. Haha

TruthInSunshine's picture

aka 'Harvest' as the term was coined and explained in The Creature From Jekyll Island.

Those who have signed over their homes, farmland, equipment or other assets in exchange for fiat loans get 'harvested.'

Debt serfdom to infinity and beyond.


Caviar Emptor's picture

Yes. Harvest imagery is very prevalent in the dystopian future genre. Vegetarian equivalent of lambs to the slaughter

navy62802's picture

It is difficult to "harvest" people who are armed.

Jlmadyson's picture

There is no answer for Spain just like Europe just like the US. Where or where will the Euro be next week. Debt bomb continues to build.

thatthingcanfly's picture

Dependable Petroleum.

We don't just fuck the Earth, we DP it.

Hedgetard55's picture

Send Yellen and Dudley out again on Monday, or all is doomed, great Obi Ben Bernanke.

Number 156's picture

There's something amiss here.

Usually they have the upper hand because they are fed some kind of information from government insiders.

Could it be that things are so much more dire behind the scenes that not even Goldman can skim profits anymore?


gatorengineer's picture

Don't worry about the squid, its fine, just do the opposite of what it says.........  My guess is its all in short......

Everybodys All American's picture

wonder what they do when the stock market and the treasury markets head south at the same time? My guess is they will go away just like should have in 2008.

Yen Cross's picture

Away from my terminal. This says it all! xlf via Yahoo. That was a very weak pullback!

Technically the banks are F..Ked, but the trend fundementally is up! Sell in May and go away! Hedge your positions. Stay lean and mean!  I know this sucker is going to sell off, and I want the " window washers" scaffolding next to my window when the grenade goes off!

slewie the pi-rat's picture

just had a little line squall come thru and some hail

time to bundle up & take the old shit-bike out...

HPC Surface Analysis/Radar Loop

Yen Cross's picture

Try this one Slewie. Massive Cell moving through! Visiting a Business Partner and borrowed the Office P/C. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoo...

Caviar Emptor's picture

Mexico's benchmark IPC index plunged nearly 2 percent within minutes in late trading Friday after a "wrong order by a broker," the exchange's chief executive told CNBC.

"We are in the process of fixing it," said Luis Tellez, chairman and CEO of the exchange.


TruthInSunshine's picture

Waddell & Reed está en la casa.

Yen Cross's picture

Waddell & Reed ? I'll take your word for it! You seem Trust Worthy.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Yeah, bust that order.  Obviously wrong.

navy62802's picture

I think the real crisis in Europe has now begun. Strap in.

disabledvet's picture

big week next week. quite possibly "historic." one big mistake that's being made is to call Washington DC "merely political." With a HUGE IMF meeting coming up, MF Global legal actions on tap, a meltdown of the Euro-zone, a literal "meltdown" in Japan, Iran, Egypt, the Arab REVOLT, an oil crisis, Aircraft Carrier battle groups, Syria, Afghanistan...WHEW! And to think "the media is covering all this!" (No, wait! "It's all about George Zimmerman." MY BAD!) Oh, yeah...and "some kind of election is going on as well...

Yen Cross's picture

IMF meeting? This Christine Lagarde?  Typical European Technocrats!   "Strauss Kahn to Lagarde" {=}' Alien to Predator'!


                                                                                                                                                                Inverse Titles!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Perhaps the best solution is not to have one POTUS, but two. 

We should have a Democratic AND Republican president at the same time. 

This was indeed a solution that worked in the late Roman empire (one Eastern Emperor, one Western) until the Tetrarchy (2 ceasars, 2 augusti) was formed in response to the 3rd cnetury financial crisis. 

Food for thought

NotApplicable's picture

My vote is for ZERO.

No one owns my life but me, thus no one has any legitimate authority over me, as I do not grant it.

All they have is force. You see what they do with it. The only thing they can. Destroy.

SKY85hawk's picture

Many years ago, Americans knew how to protect their rights and hold their property privately.

Are the methods you use available to others, to read?

SKY85hawk's picture

Many years ago, Americans knew how to protect their rights and hold their property privately.

Are the methods you use available to others, to read?

JustACitizen's picture

Great Idea!

We can send Mitt Romney and the rest of the Chicken Hawks (and his Cabinet) to lead the charge into Iran/Syria/North Korea/Pakistan/whichever...singing Onward Christian Soldiers...

We can keep Barack Obama and the rest of the Corrupt-ocrats (and his Cabinet) supporting the Ponzi scheme that passes for an economy at home...

It would be a near perfect division of labor and it worked for the Spartans as well.

Schmuck Raker's picture


I misread the headline as: "Post-Mortem OF Goldman".

xela2200's picture

So this is what gold was sniffing out. We'll see how it gets in the next couple of weeks.

PMakoi's picture

Yeah, there's hope.  It's centered in being ahead of the curve.  It's Maslow's heirarchy of needs investing.  It's stupid stuff like LVMHF and seeing what the monied is going to want.  Invest in greed.  Invest in human foibles like LVS (did that in '08), in opportunities like JMAT or PMO (also 2008)... just see the blood in the streets and go with what people, businesses, and communites will always need.  It's not rocket science, the alogs will blow themselves up.


Yen Cross's picture

 I just love the "Hazy Shade of Winter" , on that " Bloomberg" chart!

Grand Supercycle's picture

The Big Picture Wile E. Coyote Market Top.


Prepare for a substantial USD rally.