There Is No Joy In Muddlethroughville: World's Biggest Hedge Fund Is Bearish For 2012 Through 2028, And Is Long Gold
That Ray Dalio, famed head of the world's largest (and not one hit wonder unlike certain others) hedge fund has long been quite bearishly inclined has been no secret. For anyone who missed Dalio's must see interview (and transcript) with Charlie Rose we urge you to read this: "Dalio: "There Are No More Tools In The Tool Kit." For everyone who is too lazy to watch the whole thing, or read the transcript, the WSJ reminds us once again that going into 2012 Dalio's Bridgewater, which may as well rename itself Bearwater, has not changed its tune. In fact the CT hedge fund continues to see what we noted back in September is the greatest threat to the modern financial system: a debt overhang so large, at roughly $21 trillion, that one of 3 things will have to happen: a global debt restructuring/repudiation; global hyperinflation to inflate away this debt, or a one-time financial tax on all individuals amounting to roughly 30% of all wealth. That's pretty much it, at least according to mathematics. And according to Bridgewater. From the WSJ: "Bridgewater Associates has made big money for investors in recent years by staying bearish on much of the global economy. As the new year rings in, the hedge fund firm has no plans to change that gloomy view...What you have is a picture of broken economic systems that are operating on life support," Mr. Prince says. "We're in a secular deleveraging that will probably take 15 to 20 years to work through and we're just four years in." So basically scratch everything between 2012 and 2028? But, but, it was that paragon of investment insight Jim "Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept" O'Neill keeps telling us stocks will go up by 20%... stocks will go up by 20%....stocks will go up by 20%...
From the WSJ:
Robert Prince, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater, and his managers at the world's biggest hedge fund firm are preparing for at least a decade of slow growth and high unemployment for the big developed economies. Mr. Prince describes those economies—the U.S. and Europe, in particular—as "zombies" and says they will remain that way until they work through their mountains of debt.
In Europe, "the debt crisis is [a] long ways from over," he says. The economic and financial morass will mean interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will essentially be locked at zero for years.
In this bleak environment, Mr. Prince says stocks remain vulnerable to "air pockets" from shocks, such as bad news out of Europe. But for longer-term investors looking out over the next decade, he says, equities may be a good buy. There is even money to be made in U.S. Treasurys, despite interest rates near record lows, and gold is likely to resume its climb as central banks print money to bolster their economies. Mr. Prince says
Unlike Paulson, who would have been best advised in the beginning of 2011 to park his money with these "bears", and has lately become a running watercooler joke, what Bridgewater says is actually relevant:
The views of Bridgewater are keenly watched by other investors, given the firm's elevated status in the competitive world of hedge-fund investing. Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha Strategy fund is considered one of the top funds in the world. As of the end of November, it was up 25% since the start of the year, according to people familiar with the situation. The average macro fund had lost 3.7%, according to Hedge Fund Research.
Also, don't tell spam-loving party animal econ professors, but the $122 billion hedge fund, is long gold.
Currently, the fund is positioned for higher gold prices, stronger Asian emerging-market currencies and lower yields across high-quality government bond markets, Mr. Prince says.
And for all those marrionettes who parrot the release of patently manipulated and fraudulent data such as anything out of the BLS or the NAR, here is what is really driving those "better than expected" recent numbers, which goes to the core of our argument that the US has not decoupled - not by a long shot - it is merely sustaining as consumers deplete every last bit of savings. Another words for which, of course, is lagging.
Recent better-than-expected news on the U.S. economy is unlikely to be the start of a healthy expansion, he says. The uptick in economic growth has been fueled by a decline in the savings rate, which, without material income and employment gains, is unlikely to be sustainable as long-term credit growth also remains weak, he says.
The problem for the U.S, says Mr. Prince, is that it is on the wrong side of a long-term debt cycle.
"We were in a leveraging-up period for 60 years, from the early 1950s to 2008," he says. This debt bubble was self-reinforcing on the way up, and "when it tipped over, it set about a self-reinforcing process on the way down."
As evidence for the long slog facing the U.S economy, he notes that the level of leverage, as measured by comparing household income to net worth, is still higher than it was before 2008.
Which means what?
Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve will need to do more quantitative easing—buying of government bonds—but Mr. Prince says the purchases will probably be sporadic.
Gold prices should resume a rally amid continued printing of money by the Fed and other central banks, Mr. Prince says. Those efforts effectively devalue those countries' currencies compared with gold.
Bingo, and thus for all the (completed redemption driven) year end gold dumping, we have just one question: when is John Paulson's Q4 13F coming out (that's rhetorical - we know not only when it is coming out, but what is in it - stay tuned).
As for the cataclysm across the Atlantic:
"You've got insolvent banks supporting insolvent sovereigns and insolvent sovereigns supporting insolvent banks," he says.
We could not have said it better ourselves.