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As If There Was No Risk Tomorrow: Complacency Hits Record As VIX Craters

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As VIX drops below 15 for the first time in almost a year, the clarion calls of 'all-clear' should perhaps be tempered with the record-steepness of the volatility term-structure. Simply put, everyone and his mom is now selling short-dated vol but mid-term vol remains stubbornly high - in English, we're safe today but tomorrow could be a disaster - or given medium-term risk outlooks, short-term traders are the most complacent they have ever been.

The writing of covered calls - or overwriting to juice returns - seems to be reaching crescendo levels given this steepness. Writing premium is a no-brainer trade until it reaches down your throat and rips your guts out...

Each time the VIX/VXV term structure has reached down to these levels it has snapped back extremely quickly - this is a record steepness for the short-term vol term structure and should be viewed with massive skepticism.

With all the Vol ETFs, we just wonder how much impact these are having on this short-dated vol compression - especially as longer-term vol fits much more accurately with credit implied protection costs - meaning reality in the short-term remains, well, complacent is a polite word.

Using the vol term structure to 'bet' across event risk time horizons is a popular trade (perhaps on Greek sovereign litigation risk concerns) but we think the collapse in short-term vol is as much as matter of levered longs chasing risk (as S&P has lost its juice) as it is a thoughtful risk positioning for some inevitable risk flare.

Careful with those fingers in front of that steamroller...

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The quiet before the storm.

http://www.usingenglish.com/reference/idioms/quiet+before+the+storm.html

"The soft summer wind stirs the redwoods, and Wild-Water ripples sweet cadences over its mossy stones. There are butterflies in the sunshine, and from everywhere arises the drowsy hum of bees. It is so quiet and peaceful, and I sit here, and ponder, and am restless. It is the quiet that makes me restless. It seems unreal. All the world is quiet, but it is the quiet before the storm. I strain my ears, and all my senses, for some betrayal of that impending storm. Oh, that it may not be premature! That it may not be premature!"
- Jack London, Iron Heel

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

How apt, a writer who loved to talk about wolves

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

London was one of the original Bohemians who formed the Grove.  They had about ten years before the rich of San Fransisco bought in and took it over.  Jack didn't stick around much longer after the rich boys took over the club.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment lineskis
lineskis's picture

Time to go long UVXY? ^^

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

good timing - just a few hrs back we have been told to prepare our systems for a significant increase in volume over the coming days (prob by this time next week). No idea on direction but it does not sound like we are onboarding a huge new client...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

Complacency? According to this guy everyone is bearish and the contrarian call is to be bullish.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 13:51 | Link to Comment lineskis
lineskis's picture

@tooktheredpill: What system are we talking about? An exchange system to route quotes and stuff? Or a broker system? Prop trading system?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

at least all equity flows, for all of the above and algo and xing. Other than that its mums the word, but the vibe is at least the volume of last July August. Not sure if bullish news would generate that sort of volume.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

actually nothing to get excited about - just triple witch combined with the original date of the fed 'stress' tests.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment mendigo
mendigo's picture

Deer in the headlights.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Jack London could feel the Winds of Shit.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Well, I hate to be the one to say it -- but basically we were all wrong once again.   I include myself here of course, because I've been preaching "imminent collapse" as loud as anyone.

You can always say, "Yeah...but that's because of manipulation" or "We'll be right one day soon" -- but as a trader, that's a cop-out.  

 

The crash has once again been pushed-back... and it may well get pushed back another 20 times.

Remember:  It was perfectly clear to many critics in 1925 that Communism would never work.  And those critics were 100% correct.  But anyone holding their breath for the collapse died long before it came.    

It pains me to say it but:   Point scored by the other side.

Shit.

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Great part is, it doesnt matter if you thought the markets would surely head down by now and were 'wrong' as long as youve got plenty of commodities loaded.

Problem is with your 'scorekeeping' theyre will be no winners in this. Why do you think they keep 'pushing it back'...because they know theyre on the losing side and their plans are *fail*.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

"..because they know theyre on the losing side and their plans are *fail*."

 

I don't know how you get that.  They sure look like they're on the winning side from where I sit.

And there are winners in every crash.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre winning what? Some fiat currency which is going worthless? Whatever, they must be easily amused. 

To see more what Im talking about with 'failing' listen to Putins weekend speech.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment French Frog
French Frog's picture

Talk of 'market collapse' is so passé, so yesterday, dear!

In full agreement with you here: it's easy to generalise about impending doom when you are only commenting on the matter, but when one is trading day-in/day-out it's a completely different kettle of fish.

The other side is definitely ahead ... for the time being only hopefully

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Hate to tell you this but if you're referring to Marxist communism, it's very much alive and well.

As well, the CDS 'trigger' saw some debate on Friday. I know hedgless_horseman basically said that the banks would just call it square between themselves and ignore the whole thing. Others echoed similar sentiment.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The can has many miles to be kicked before it crumbles.

But it WILL eventually crumble.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

The green & red colors on your screen will continue to flash long after your death.

The actual economy will in fact continue to die a slow death.

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Sleepless Knight
Sleepless Knight's picture

I think what will happen is everything is "fine" on Friday night, Monday morning will be a totally different story. I just think they can mask it that well now.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

I dont see how any points are scored if we are paying over 4 bucks for gas.. and get ZIRP at the bank..

doesnt matter whether the crash comes or not.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Damn, actual intellectual honesty on ZH.  Can't believe you haven't been massively junked for it, but for me, you get a green.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Capitulation.......check one more indicator

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

I"ve never read that before and Jack London is one of my favorites!  Thanks for that quote.  America's golden age.  

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

While the quote quickly rose to my tongue when summoned, I had never seen it "In situ". When I "Googled" it to insert a reference for the readers I realized I had never read the book itself and that there were several Jack London that I had missed along the way.

Summer reading.......bitches. :>)

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Jake88
Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ya gotta love that Interweb thingy. :)

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment HarryM
HarryM's picture

The artificially inseminated market will give violent birth to a horror like the scene from the movie "Alien".

 

That , is poetry

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

or Damien

or Rosemary's baby

or Mrs. Bernanke's baby

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Vogon poetry.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Diet Coke and F...
Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

Durden 2012

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

The Baltic Index and VIX are broken due to new and different underlying assupmtions.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Just amazing how little what we call "investors" care about tomorrow. Just keep skipping up that yellow brick road. 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:06 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I know, theyre total fuktards. Never any danger today, or tomorrow...all is well.

Then watch the next market collapse we'll hear all their crying and whining and how they really need to be bailed out or their new Porsche will be repo-ed.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

GODS work is being done....fear not

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Let's see how resilient economies are to an oil shock when Isreall strikes Iran.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

maybe before striking the Central Bank will load up on oil stocks and derivatives, as they announced buying equities using "excess cash"

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

Man Tyler, you sure cry WOLF a lot!  How long has it been since you've been warning of danger around the corner?  Three years and 4,000 points on the DOW?

I think you have been clear that the Fed is propping this thing up.  Why would they stop tomorrow?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment justanothernerd
justanothernerd's picture

Agreed -- there are people like me who want to take Tyler seriously, but with all of this 'boy cry wolf' talk, it's getting annoying. I mean, I'm guessing Tyler would have predicted that the markets would have crashed by now... 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Man you 2 guys have great troll names! Well, I guess if you think its all good and any caution is just 'boy who cried wolf' then Im sure youre happy in your all-in margined equity ownership. As you say, what could go wrong?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

nerdboy.....you dont get it......tyler lets you know that the pretty and tidy packaged meat in the supermarket is filled with toxic "pink slime" (shout-out to washington blog at the top of the page)......you can eat it now and maybe not feel its effects immediately, but it will catch up to you..........eat it or not.....the pink slime still pervades..........

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Remember last year's daily 500 pt. swings? It can happen any time, just whenever the monkeys decide they want it to happen. 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

there's a slight difference between not wanting to stop and continuing to have the desired effect

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

It will continue until it cannot - when the political cost to Bernanke and Obama are greater than the political gains from the market, i.e. when inflation rages and gas prices appear to be crashing Obama's reelection chances.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

obamas reelection is a lock.......more than 50 percent of households now receive government assistance....that...my friend....is a majority..................

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

not to mention the pathetic offers of "an alternative" (except Ron P., of course)

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

The issue is, many households don't realize it - or deny it even though it's pretty pervasive.  It's actually pretty hard to find anyone who doesn't get something a little extra out of the government in some way.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

DCFusor

The issue is, many households don't realize it - or deny it even though it's pretty pervasive.  It's actually pretty hard to find anyone who doesn't get something a little extra out of the government in some way.

A little too vauge for me explain your statement more fully pls, I get nothing from them, period, that I can see.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Just because a household gets government assistance -- I get social security, FWIW -- doesn't mean they necessarily credit Barry with their "good fortune". I got it when GWB was in the head puppet chair too, and he wasn't a favorite either.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Proceed with the junking....

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

done

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Stupid avatar. Ass.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Poser...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Just the tip?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Grill me a cheese....

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

"Man Tyler, you sure cry WOLF a lot!  How long has it been since you've been warning of danger around the corner?  Three years and 4,000 points on the DOW?"

 

I understand what you mean.  This site has predicted enough gloom for years to come.  That said, the fundamental reasons for preaching this doom do in fact exist.  As such, using your imagery, I think we need to focus on the fact that at the end of the story the wolf does in fact show up.  Timing's a bitch...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment resurger
Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

I agree with @kito.

 

Zerohedge shows you how the sausage is made.  If you want to eat it, it's up to you.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment ZIRPThis
ZIRPThis's picture

@SimpleandConfused Are you really equating economic health and DOW PERFORMANCE??  Why not just link everything directly to inflation then?  The only reason the Dow is up is because the price of equities have risen, not the value, just like everything else.  We have not only fixed NOTHING since '08, we've made it exponentially worse with every passing day of QE/Stimulus horseshit.  If Uncle Ben & Co. stop tomorrow, we'll begin the correction process.  Otherwise, we'll continue to pump air into the balloon & thus exponentially worsen the eventual result.  That's it.  Anybody not living under a rock can see the writing on the wall.  The question is what will be the trigger..  Possibly another credit downgrade coinciding with the coming debt ceiling farce later this year, although I don't think we'll make it much past the July 1 Iran/Troika oil embargoes before things start to really spiral downward.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 13:47 | Link to Comment amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

This is a valid point. Sometimes I wonder whether ZH isn't in fact a GS false flag to improve their cost basis.

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=cl&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

Nice breakout in CL but go to the bottom of the page the insiders are selling into it. Check any stock the same everywere. You may be simple and confused but the insiders are not

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

cramer said everything is fine, AAPL is back at $550

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

The AAPL store was packed this weekend with kids buying more stuff they don't need with credit cards from parents who are not paying their mortgages so little Johnny can buy yet another expensive toy.

They probaly won't pay their credit cards also and then claim how bad banks are treating them....

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

The AAPL store was packed this weekend with kids buying more stuff they don't need with credit cards from parents who are not paying their mortgages so little Johnny can buy yet another expensive toy.

WHAT were you doing there?..............LOL

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Those were debit cards.  That bunch can't get credit cards anymore.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment e92335i08
e92335i08's picture

To go along with this Look at TVIX STILL has NOT made new lows. Very interesting that TVIX is holding up over the mid Feburary lows.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

tvix is trading at large premium over nav. vxx looks like its in a downward wedge to me, spx losing steam, things should interesting in the next couple of weeks

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

VIX won't spike here, but it should come back up to the 18-20 range soon, as the environment is still murky.  Now that Greece is fine we are on to the next one, and the next one is Spain/Ireland/Portugal/Italy; these States are larger and more "important" than Greece, and they will have a much larger impact on the continued hyperinflating of the euro, and along with it, the dollar, since the euro is receiving direct liquidity from the Fed.

So the VIX will go apeshit when europe addresses its next crisis, which should be in May, or if the ME trades bombs, or it may even wait until the next US debt debacle, if Europe can continue to borrow cash from the Fed.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

VIX, the most utterly meaningless 'indicator' around, as it apparently never indicates a damn thing.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Then why does it fluctuate?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

???

Thu, 03/15/2012 - 00:00 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

vxx and spy look highly correlated to me, inversely.

take any 2 prices on SPY (SP500 etf, same for the index), divide. same time periods, divide for vxx.

 

log(vxx_ratio) / log (spy_ratio) = -4.05  +/- 0.05

on a scatterplot this makes a pretty clear line with a negative slope.

This indicates to me if you plan to make big money off a small drop in the s&p you'd get a vxx call or vxx shares. if you want to hedge that with spy shares, spy call or vxx put, that can also work.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p14766932286

nice & easy to see.

looking at vxx vs VIX ... okay, there's problems there:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=D&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p72603797318

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Lennon,

According to the man in the know, the IRAN bombing is OFF the table, and if he is correct on the numbers ...................the ENTIRE ME is in big trouble, I do not see Izzy doing shit.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57394904/the-spymaster-meir-dagan-on-irans-threat/?pageNum=3

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Primary Dealers have been ordered to keep the market up at any cost. Nobody knows whether they've already run out of money or will soon.

I am fighting the Fed. My bet is 20% drop within April due to margin calls from Greece, otherwise if it levitates like this, NYSE may go out of business due to no volume.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

PDs get billions of dollars with every Treasury auction.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

but it's for our own good, right john jimi? 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Braaaaaiiins!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

for some reason whenever I think of "the bankers" all I can see is this piece 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZ-aRwEbp5I 

It's all about PR. I think our handlers could soften the economic blow quite a bit by giving the current condition a more accessable pet name like .... "Abbey"...  Abbey Normal 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Only problem is those billions of 'dollars' will soon be worthless.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Problem for whom?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Problem for anyone counting dollars.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Agree. And they put them back to the Fed. Some of it they seem to use it to hold up the market, but hey, they did the same thing in 2008.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46658525

They are trying very hard to lure suckers (click above) but the suckers are retiring and scared shitless. Eventually, same as in 2008 they will have to crash the market to generate some volume and some non PD demand. My crystal ball tells me it's few weeks away, my money is on it.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

IMHO (because who really knows), a bet for or against the market is a bet about whether the administration controls the market or it's enemies do. In these days of system manipulation, the market is just a function of money and thus only a function of who controls the printing and distribution. Failing to realize this is suicidal or masochistic at best.

Don't look for break down in the areas that are easy to control. It won't happen unless for a specific strategic purpose and such a purpose will not likely include your immediate interests.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Absolutely agree with your analysis.

I am just crazy to put my money on the probability of a 20% drop within 6 weeks. I don't think the central bankers would like to hold up the market longer than that. They can but I'm betting they won't since everything is so expensive, stocks, crude oil, food. No volume for NYSE.

They engineered the Lehman crash in 2008 and I think they are engineering another crash as we speak. My bet, though. I am crazy.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

At least it is a conscious bet - you are attempting to handicap the manipulators.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

I don't even call them manipulators any longer. Not many suckers left to manipulate.

They have plainly bought up the market.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I also agree with that analysis, but I am doing the same as you.
Good luck!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Likewise. Good luck to you.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

skyrockets in flight, afternoon delight

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

+1 Starland Vocal Band

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Anchorman

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

CVX at 109.50 Oil at 105 and no Arbitrage!

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

This is the calm before the storm.

Here in Jersey, the weather has been exceptionally mild the past few days.  On my local travels this past weekend, I noticed an alarming number of homes up for sale.  Sure, its pretty much spring already--no news to anyone but we've had a very tame winter---and I get that this is the time of year for residential real estate, but I did notice the same houses that were on sale last year at this time, are out there again.  And then some.  One home in particular went up for sale late 2010, was on the market most of 2011, and a For Rent sign went up this past September.   That same house had the sale sign back up as of yesterday.  Clearly there are no takers.

There is clearly a problem in the ever-shrinking middle class America.  People are desperately trying to dump their homes for what they can get and either downsizing or renting (you should be sitting pretty if you're a landlord with stabilized properties), lucky to be able to have some proceeds left over for closing costs and keep the banks away.

As Tyler indicated earlier today, job creation is anemic at best and the "jobs" being created are barely worth the pittance being paid. 

Our government has been practicing Keynesianism on steroids---$1 trillion spent on "stimulus" to "help" the Middle Class and all we have is an 8.3% unemployment rate to show for it, and the media won't even acknowledge that the true unemployment rate is somewhere in the teens--at best.

The fleecing of America continues.  Couple this with rising fuel costs, food costs, etc., increasing number of people dependent on government checks, impending war...and you have a toxic brew of putrified angst.

Something wicked this way comes...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

shithole

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

As the FED keeps printing, expect that inflation to keep rising. I don't giva a shit what they call  it, it's printing....calling it QE or not, who cares? Hell, you can't make the packages any smaller, they have to increase prices. Middle class homes? sad story.

Just got back from Vegas......a lotta empty tables and near free rooms and comps. But you'll never hear about it, media keeps hope alive.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

sure, do you think the money go to peoples pockets to prop the fucking market?

If teh cash is hostage at banks QE/LTRO who is trading the markets? i guess you know ...

there is only one scene to see, coporate armageddon is looming, whoever hauled ass first wins.

 

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DOW around 13,000, almost back to ALL-TIME bubbletop highs again....anyone with any brains here would be looking to dump first. Later, no escape.

Yet pigs here still think they can surely get some more upside banked, after all markets dont go down anymore from here on out...they fixed all that.

Uh huh....sure.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

yea.........and housing prices will only go up.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment optimator
optimator's picture

How about the opposite.  Of the eighty homes in my complex of upscale homes only one is for sale.  One home was taken by the Government as the owner was a drug dealer.  Everyone wants that particular home but the Government will not discuss with anyone in the four years that home has been empty.  What's the end game? Opinion anyone?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

*

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Oh look......The DOW is leading the charge. Consider a short on IBM.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

See that last really high peak...yeah.  Thats when I sold last time...now I'm starting all over again.

Fan set up and running- Check

Shit loaded - Check

Completely irresponsible bastard at the switch - You betcha!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Back up the fk'ng truck.

UVXY here I come.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

TBTB will read this and they will short it.

sigh!

They are shorting everything, VXX,TVIX, UVXY any inverse ETF

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Same here, I bought some after taking a good look at the chart.

Thank you Tyler.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Yeah  sure that UVXY reverse split worked out well.....

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Those shorts who are patient will soon be rewarded.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Soccer moms and retired engineers are writting puts and shorting the euro.  They are the new day traders.  Bernanke has built an army of average Joes to help him balance out his renegade policy.  You think you can go against the inevitable hyperinflation of the Fiat Ponzi?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Hyperinflation'? Sorry not going to happen...no one around able to afford it anymore. 'Hyperinflation'...I always laughed at that. Hey go ahead charge $10 for a gallon of gas lets see what demand does.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We can't afford to use worthless fiat anymore, that's all I know.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyll find a 'magical solution' after the next giant market collapse...a single currency for everyone. Of course along with that you need 1 central govt to administer it, and 1 bank....but I know thats all just 'crazy conspiracy kook nonsense'....till it happens.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Most likely not.

There are many a deceased bear who tried to short the real estate shitstorm during 2003-2006. Yes they were right but only the best of the best made money in 2007-2009.

They will do everything possible to kill as many people who are on their trail via these pump an dumps. Be careful.

I am short since 3:58 on Friday in IWM. I have a stop in there so we shall see

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I did pretty good in that time frame. I missed the Bear Sterns short but I caught the Lehman short and made money on shorting Merrill. My thoughts are that they are going to have to find an excuse for a market sell off. They can't continue to allow the gas prices to rise like this or the economy will slow enough and crush demand, the sellers will overwhelm the fed. A war will give them a good reason for the market to sell off and still protect Obummer. 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Not if they run out of money first.  It's the Big Poker Game.  Some of the players don't have enough (or any) chips left to call.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its like Jim Lahey always says 'What do you get when you plant shit seeds? Shit weeds, Randy Bobandy....Shit Weeds'.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No risk, right.  The "game" that is our current system will only end when no one is playing.  Want to know what the future of America is, look no further than India.  Almost 70% of the transactions in India occur "off the books".  Want to run a cable line, pay off locals and their representitives, want to get your product out of the country, pay all the bribes of those families/clans and "officials" that own the shipping companies and regulate that sector.

Awesome, at least it will be a "free" market of sorts.  Energy remains the wild card in all this.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

WTF will wake the flock? If only my ruby nikes worked liked dorothys.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fuck them. The sheeple or 'Walkers' will only drag you down. 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment pauhana
pauhana's picture

Epperson on CNBC just said that the government will be looking into manipulation of the oil market.  What a hoot!  They just need to look in the mirror.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

At first I thought they were going to consider how to best manipulate it. :-)

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Yes they can ...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

the government will be looking into manipulation of the oil market.

Which is to say, they will do nothing but look in the mirror.

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Congress hearings into 'scurrilous oil manipulators' may be a secret insider signal. The last time they had such hearings the markets tanked. And remember, all congresscritters know far ahead of time what the markets are going to do, theyre warned by their insider buddies.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Definitely complacency is here: only one article on the front page of Zero Hedge pimping gold.

Sorry, I don't have a chart for that ...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

The VIX is best viewed upside down:

http://chart.ly/o3q5kvv

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I know this is probably wrong, but what if folks are getting out of it because they think it won't pay off when you need to cash it in? Nickles are nice but not if steam rollers are flattening the place. 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyd be smart to realize the casino doors are about to be chained and locked from the outside pretty soon.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment elmiatzi
elmiatzi's picture

For a not trader type the market seems to be completely broken, it dosenot reflet anything happening in the real world, I dont know if one should really attach any importance to anything happening on the indices...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

"Everything is fine...."

"Priced in already...."

"seasonally adjusted looks good...."

"Never been a better time to buy...."

So the MSM and NAR sayeth.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment rosebud
rosebud's picture

what do you suopose it would cost for all the biggies to put up a web site that caters to all the short minded investor- to lure them in with every concievable negative story on the investment planet?  Think it might be worth it?   Where does the great one Tyler get all those stories all the time? It isnt like CBS  with unlimited resources,  or is it? What fun it must be ..."look they fell for it again"

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

rosebud,

  Where does the great one Tyler get all those stories all the time?

I would wager they have access to many ,many news outlets, that we do not get here in Radio UnFree America.

We get less NEWS than most of the world.Want to know whats going on in the US?, check out the other WORLD sources,because we are spoon fed exactly what the PTB want, nothing more, nothing less.

Have to keep the sheeple on a tight lease and dumb as rocks.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Rosebud:

Outlier conspiracy theory of the day!

Congrats!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment breakyoself
breakyoself's picture

Maria Bartiromo is finally getting it. She knows the low volume is due to no participation in the fraud market and her co-host thinks it's just the new normal. We'll see what he thinks when it drops another few million. 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 02:20 | Link to Comment cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

yes, people are selling  options!

 

http://www.cnhedge.com/

http://www.jinrongbaike.com/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!