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The Thin Blue Line Between Hopium And Reality
If there was one unique datapoint that confirms beyond a reasonable doubt the perpetual upside bias of "analysts" and other snake oil salesmen (after all, one is far more likely to buy the stuff another is selling if one has a smile on his face, a wink in the eye, and is optimistically inclined, even if that optimism is completely unfounded), it is the following chart from UBS which shows the progression of consensus bottom-up EPS growth estimates for Europe: "consensus estimates for 2012 EPS growth have fallen from double digits at the end of last year to 0.7% currently." Observe the straight thin blue line below: it begins in the land of Hopium, and ends in Reality.
Of course, there are 5 more months in the year. By the time 2012 is actually done, the YoY change will actually be negative.
That, however has not prevented the same analysts who have been so massively wrong on 2012 to keep their 2013 forecast at its highs, and rising, and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year.
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well the ANAL-ysts have to do something. They're paid to pump up stocks.
And they espouse "value investing," the art of buying low and selling lower. When I had a broker, I often told him that's what he made me.
can anyone explain why the vix is trading down?
ZH had an article on the Vix, last week I think - that explains that there is this arb trade involving vix, but it was a bit over my head...esentially derivative games to keep markets up.
perhaps this is a comment too general to be shown here, but, last i heard the russian dude that started this site was hit for something over a thousand dollars of "inside trading".
bet they wish they had waved that one by.
p.s. thanks for keeping us at least part with our constitution. oh the enlightenment. catherine the great had virtues well beyond the inter species.
Think of all the earnings "beats" still to come! /sarc on
The chart can also show "The Thin Blue Line" as law enforcement going from Order to Chaos...
Remember, not everyone will not agree on everything but we can agree on a couple of core principles against Banksters, unresponsive politicians, Federal law/military enforcement agencies. Shoulder to shoulder we must stand up to tyranny...
Skynet going live in 3,,,,2,,,,,1
Its bubble of hope, it has to burst either way. http://www.freefdawatchlist.com
Don't you just love when the D dops 120 and VIX drops .77 ?
That, however has not prevented the same analysts who have been so massively wrong on 2012 to keep their 2013 forecast at its highs, and rising, and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year.
that's because they think the mayans said there won't be a 2013 anyway.
no accountability bitchez
There will be a 2013 and it will be an awful year, for markets and everything else
for shorts?
http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=recollections+of+a+s...
CODY WILLARD = STUPID PERFORMANCE CHASER
= STUPID CBS-MW "REPORTER"...he told you to buy FB @ $27....he rode to $33 and rode to $19 (still riding) and he bought more @ $23..NOW he tells you to buy AAPL @ $600 = UNFREAKINBELIABLE !!
he has said on previous articles that he was "trained by the best" = jim crank-a-holic cramer...ok i can see why...crank says: buy aapl @ $620, nflx @ $300, slv @ $45, gold @ 1800 (after tanking from 1900) = me shooOOOOORT !!
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/08/02/how-to-trade-apple-into-the-new-iphone-launch/
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/07/31/olympic-sponsors-on-the-wrong-track/
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/07/23/how-facebook-gets-to-100/
making $$$$$ in the casino = soooo easy..just KEEP TRACK of the shoe shine boys and BET AGAINST THEM !!!
i bought FB
@ 26 and DUMPED @ $30...did not chase to $33...
and recently short covered my 1386 shorts from last fri @ 1360 today...waiting for pump to 1380+ to reshort and final pop before sub 1300.
also waiting for EUR pop to 1.225+ to reshort.
waiting in cash...can wait days...NO PROBLEM !!
Have you ever heard of the Harptones man...they rock.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rHqV3YMTP8
i keep waiting for them to pick it up and mention sh boom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBgQezOF8kY&feature=related
STUPID cbs-MW CENSORS
is that you thumbing me down??? ROFLMAO !!! LOL !!! remember that it was your LIE-beral stance that got me booted off mw...i told u guys you idiots were a bunchof DEMON-RATic odummernomics, RAPE the peasants with INFLATION and DEBT to "saaaaave" the fat cat's casino and that apparently did not "conform" with the "communitie's guidlines" = LOL !!
i love zero hedge !!!
Dude, put down the pipe.
pods
ditto.
anyone who thinks the u.s. political parties are more real than professional wrestling or (going farther back) the harlem globetrotters vs. the washington generals has not been paying attention lately.
gayest excuse ever for watching CNBC.
Your lack of "tolerance" will not be tolerated. Off to the education camps for sensitivity training with you.
getting caught up in the divisive shit much?
look at it selfishly. gay men will not steal pussy from you.
what makes CODY WILLARD different than all other MarketWatch jewish liars
I trust even the weathermen more than I trust any of the so-called analysts.
i use a stock rock. whatever the rock tells me to buy i buy. so far nothing.
Long VIX seems like such a no brainer play here . . . .
Yardstick that thought has thrust many to the front of the line for a free kick in the balls for a long time now.
International Data on Living Standards Show that the United States Should Not Become More Like Europe
If the president gets re-elected that hope line will do the death cross on the reality line for sure.
What will happen if he doesn't get re-elected? Perhaps GWB and BO should alternate indefinately to bring us prosperity.
And the difference between the two would be ......?
one is the bankers left leg, the other is the bankers right leg.......both are needed for them to stand...........
And the difference between the two would be ......?
It's a difference in style:
GWB & Co. stole from us and raped us and our brothers and sisters and looked us in the eye while doing so and smiled his evil smile and told us that it's all our fault.
BO flirted with us, promised the moon and vacation in Paris, and we laid in bed with him. Tomorrow morning the bastard was gone with our money.
So, you like getting ass raped gently and getting the kiss, followed by the words "I love you and will never lie to you"?????!!!!!
The initials R or D. That is about it.
So theyre doing everything they can for The One's re-election thingy, with the knowledge that if He does get back in then we;re really fucked. Ok its all makin sense now.
hey sheepie, bernanke didnt propose yesterday............sigh........poor girl, he keeps promising, and she keeps hoping..........will she ever get that marriage proposal???????????
Is there any volume today? Will I be hearing "we are well off the lows" in a half hour?
Here it comes.
One fucking disaster after another. If we were more technologically advanced(thank god we aren't based on what it's done so far) people would not only be fleeing the banks with cash but getting the fuck off this planet. One huge time bomb. I don't know how anyone could one bit of faith in any of this shit anymore.
Fuck 'em all 2012. Get the rope.
It's a good thing that I'm in high dividend paying stawks, just imagine the cash flow the companies will have this time next year.
Sarc/...the disclaimer is for those not bright enough to get sarcasm....you know who you are.
12.1%?!?? Holy mother of God ...
I think they meant in a different solar system.
Woe is unto us.
They'll move with the herd. One should pay very close attention when all the analysts say we're doomed.
Yeah, but it's 12% off a lower base! Not to worry.
Our EPS estimates of 2013 are sponsored by EASTON Hockey Equipment proud partner of Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg.
Illegal banana curves on those hockey sticks.
Looks like it's time for the 1430 ramp attempt...
While we're talking about hopium...
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/08/01/MEXICO-DISSOLVES-THEIR-FBI...
Mexico Dissolves Its FBI, Moves to Legalize Drugs
http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120802/174924803.html
Turkish Army Holds Drills on Syria Border
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/China_says_Japan_defence_report_irrespon...
China says Japan defence report 'irresponsible'
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Syria_rebels_bombard_air_base_near_Alepp...
Syria rebels bombard air base near Aleppo: AFP, NGO
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/S_Korea_close_to_expanding_missile_ran...
S. Korea close to expanding missile range: report
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/S_Korea_to_stage_military_drill_near_d...
S. Korea to stage military drill near disputed island
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Australia_rules_out_US_nuclear_aircraf...
Australia rules out US nuclear aircraft carrier base
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Iraq_says_July_deadliest_month_in_nearly...
Iraq says July deadliest month in nearly two years
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China_hits_back_at_new_US_sanctions_ov...
China hits back at new US sanctions over Iran
http://www.firstpost.com/world/us-gives-25-mn-aid-to-syrian-rebels-40193...
US gives $25 mn aid to Syrian rebels
Syria replaces border guards with combat forces to prevent any infiltration from Lebanon to Syria
Turkey to double size of Syria refugee camps. 5 new facilities housing further 50k refugees to be completed over next 3 weeks - Hurriyet
White House: Annan resignation shows 'failure' of Russia, China to act at UN Security Council - @AP
http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120801/174912552.html
Iran to Drop $4-bln Claim if Russia Delivers S-300 Missiles: Envoy
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120801/DEFREG04/308010006/Israel-Na...|newswell|text|World%20News|p
Israel Navy Completes Major Drill
Just like US analysts! The US is about to enter a recession. Europe is entering a depression. China is about to see its bubble pop along with its ridiculous real estate market, and fucking India cannot even keep its lights on. However, analyst are calling for the S&P 500 to earn record earnings next year! Really.....are people really that stupid? Is everyone taking "stupid pills"?
They designed the chaos, and now that its here it seems they got cold feet.
No fear. They are just taking their sweet time. Timing is everything.
I agree that timing is everything, that's why it cant happen until after the elections. Regardless of who wins.
Everytime I drive somewhere these days I ask myself the same dam question. Must be something in the water.
Same phucks trying to sell muppets on "hopium" while they steal all real "hope". All economic prosperity starts with hope.
For the most part, nearly ALL equity analysts and their bulltard bretheren are DELUDED from the time they wake up until the time they wake up again. Unfortunately, this is what many consider to be 'The American Way'....They have no basis is reality and live in a world of their own construct. Most cannot get laid on a regular basis, either. That's where the deluded 'all day' quality comes into play....
Who cares?
The 2pm pump calvalry showed up. They ass hump this back to positive by the close. They could give a shit less about legalities and even less about hiding it.
it's...IN YO FACE.
Just watch in amazement.
I'm watching. Its kind of surrealistic.
Just shows how completely desperate they are now.
i think it's gonna fail today...market (broke/rigged/fucked/otherwise) sucks.
The S&P with one loud whimper thusly spoke "Heal Me!" and the luminous hand of the money lords rested down on the S&P's quaking shoulders then sayeth in a wonderous voice, "I have healed you, go and fail no more. At least until tomorrow at 2 PM."
I've come to accept that they'll literally 'do' whatever the fuck they want to.
Here comes the next wave of relentless bidding right 3pm.
It really is extraordinary. Based on the calls/sentiment around my office you'd think this thing could not move up...and like some magician's muse the lady rises and levitates off the table.
DJIA now down 124, S&P down 12. These numbers are changing like every ten seconds. Last read prior to this one had DJIA down 112. Its like watching the Olympic table tennis games all over again.
Look on the bright side folks,
The time is almost upon us to pay back in kind what the wall street, london mile has given us.
And in my very astute and opinionated opinion, I really do believe they will shit their fucking shorts for what a certain percentage of us have up our sleeve.
Watch out big men, us little ones are awake.
Cunts
"---and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year"
Damn, I am in need of a new keyboard now.
They will continue the inflation/devaluation-dance, 10-15% over that year, managing some stability in the price within the eurozone.
hey.. its too early in the day for the end of the day algo ramp....another bad program?
And the VIX is down again. No reason to buy puts today, no sir.