The Thin Blue Line Between Hopium And Reality

Tyler Durden's picture

If there was one unique datapoint that confirms beyond a reasonable doubt the perpetual upside bias of "analysts" and other snake oil salesmen (after all, one is far more likely to buy the stuff another is selling if one has a smile on his face, a wink in the eye, and is optimistically inclined, even if that optimism is completely unfounded), it is the following chart from UBS which shows the progression of consensus bottom-up EPS growth estimates for Europe: "consensus estimates for 2012 EPS growth have fallen from double digits at the end of last year to 0.7% currently." Observe the straight thin blue line below: it begins in the land of Hopium, and ends in Reality.

Of course, there are 5 more months in the year. By the time 2012 is actually done, the YoY change will actually be negative.

That, however has not prevented the same analysts who have been so massively wrong on 2012 to keep their 2013 forecast at its highs, and rising, and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year.

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GMan_'s picture

well the ANAL-ysts have to do something. They're paid to pump up stocks.

Brother Sebastian's picture

And they espouse "value investing," the art of buying low and selling lower.  When I had a broker, I often told him that's what he made me.

The trend is your friend's picture

can anyone explain why the vix is trading down? 

mirac's picture

ZH had an article on the Vix, last week I think - that explains that there is this arb trade involving vix, but it was a bit over my head...esentially derivative games to keep markets up.

jeff montanye's picture

perhaps this is a comment too general to be shown here, but, last i heard the russian dude that started this site was hit for something over a thousand dollars of "inside trading".  

bet they wish they had waved that one by.

p.s. thanks for keeping us at least part with our constitution.  oh the enlightenment.  catherine the great had virtues well beyond the inter species.

spastic_colon's picture

Think of all the earnings "beats" still to come! /sarc on

El Oregonian's picture

The chart can also show "The Thin Blue Line" as law enforcement going from Order to Chaos...

Remember, not everyone will not agree on everything but we can agree on a couple of core principles against Banksters, unresponsive politicians, Federal law/military enforcement agencies. Shoulder to shoulder we must stand up to tyranny...

LeonardoFibonacci's picture

Skynet going live in   3,,,,2,,,,,1

vinu02's picture

Its bubble of hope, it has to burst either way.

HarryM's picture

Don't you just love when the D dops 120 and VIX drops .77 ?


bigdumbnugly's picture

That, however has not prevented the same analysts who have been so massively wrong on 2012 to keep their 2013 forecast at its highs, and rising, and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year.


that's because they think the mayans said there won't be a 2013 anyway.

no accountability bitchez

doc_in_the_house's picture


= STUPID CBS-MW "REPORTER"...he told you to buy FB @ $27....he rode to $33 and rode to $19 (still riding) and he bought more @ $23..NOW he tells you to buy AAPL @ $600 = UNFREAKINBELIABLE !!

he has said on previous articles that he was "trained by the best" = jim crank-a-holic cramer...ok i can see why...crank says: buy aapl @ $620, nflx @ $300, slv @ $45, gold @ 1800 (after tanking from 1900) = me shooOOOOORT !!


making $$$$$ in the casino = soooo easy..just KEEP TRACK of the shoe shine boys and BET AGAINST THEM !!!

doc_in_the_house's picture

i bought FB

@ 26 and DUMPED @ $30...did not chase to $33...

and recently short covered my 1386 shorts from last fri @ 1360 today...waiting for pump to 1380+ to reshort and final pop before sub 1300.

also waiting for EUR pop to 1.225+ to reshort.

waiting in cash...can wait days...NO PROBLEM !!

Itch's picture

Have you ever heard of the Harptones man...they rock.

jeff montanye's picture

i keep waiting for them to pick it up and mention sh boom.


doc_in_the_house's picture


is that you thumbing me down??? ROFLMAO !!! LOL !!! remember that it was your LIE-beral stance that got me booted off mw...i told u guys you idiots were a bunchof DEMON-RATic odummernomics, RAPE the peasants with INFLATION and DEBT to "saaaaave" the fat cat's casino and that apparently did not "conform" with the "communitie's guidlines" = LOL !!

i love zero hedge !!!

pods's picture

Dude, put down the pipe.


jeff montanye's picture


anyone who thinks the u.s. political parties are more real than professional wrestling or (going farther back) the harlem globetrotters vs. the washington generals has not been paying attention lately.

oddjob's picture

gayest excuse ever for watching CNBC.

Dr. Engali's picture

Your lack of "tolerance" will not be tolerated. Off to the education camps for sensitivity training with you.

jeff montanye's picture

getting caught up in the divisive shit much?

look at it selfishly.  gay men will not steal pussy from you.

ObungaBoy's picture

what makes CODY WILLARD different than all other MarketWatch jewish liars

Abraxas's picture

I trust even the weathermen more than I trust any of the so-called analysts.

buzzsaw99's picture

i use a stock rock. whatever the rock tells me to buy i buy. so far nothing.

Yardstick of Civilization's picture

Long VIX seems like such a no brainer play here . . . . 

fonzannoon's picture

Yardstick that thought has thrust many to the front of the line for a free kick in the balls for a long time now.

Everybodys All American's picture

If the president gets re-elected that hope line will do the death cross on the reality line for sure.

Abraxas's picture

What will happen if he doesn't get re-elected? Perhaps GWB and BO should alternate indefinately to bring us prosperity. 

akak's picture


Perhaps GWB and BO should alternate indefinately

And the difference between the two would be ......?

kito's picture

one is the bankers left leg, the other is the bankers right leg.......both are needed for them to stand...........

Abraxas's picture

And the difference between the two would be ......?

It's a difference in style:

GWB & Co. stole from us and raped us and our brothers and sisters and looked us in the eye while doing so and smiled his evil smile and told us that it's all our fault.

BO flirted with us, promised the moon and vacation in Paris, and we laid in bed with him. Tomorrow morning the bastard was gone with our money. 

WAMO556's picture

So, you like getting ass raped gently and getting the kiss, followed by the words "I love you and will never lie to you"?????!!!!!

WAMO556's picture

The initials R or D. That is about it.

SheepDog-One's picture

So theyre doing everything they can for The One's re-election thingy, with the knowledge that if He does get back in then we;re really fucked. Ok its all makin sense now.

kito's picture

hey sheepie, bernanke didnt propose yesterday............sigh........poor girl, he keeps promising, and she keeps hoping..........will she ever get that marriage proposal???????????

fonzannoon's picture

Is there any volume today? Will I be hearing "we are well off the lows" in a half hour?

rsnoble's picture

One fucking disaster after another. If we were more technologically advanced(thank god we aren't based on what it's done so far) people would not only be fleeing the banks with cash but getting the fuck off this planet. One huge time bomb. I don't know how anyone could one bit of faith in any of this shit anymore.

Fuck 'em all 2012. Get the rope.

Dr. Engali's picture

It's a good thing that I'm in high dividend paying stawks, just imagine the cash flow the companies will have this time next year.


Sarc/...the disclaimer is for those not bright enough to get know who you are.

bdc63's picture

12.1%?!??  Holy mother of God ...

RSloane's picture

I think they meant in a different solar system.

Jlmadyson's picture

Woe is unto us.

Bohm Squad's picture

They'll move with the herd.  One should pay very close attention when all the analysts say we're doomed.

Clark80's picture

Yeah, but it's 12% off a lower base! Not to worry.

timbo_em's picture

Our EPS estimates of 2013 are sponsored by EASTON Hockey Equipment proud partner of Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg.

SheepDog-One's picture

Illegal banana curves on those hockey sticks.

Disenchanted's picture





Looks like it's time for the 1430 ramp attempt...