The Thin Blue Line Between Hopium And Reality

Tyler Durden's picture

If there was one unique datapoint that confirms beyond a reasonable doubt the perpetual upside bias of "analysts" and other snake oil salesmen (after all, one is far more likely to buy the stuff another is selling if one has a smile on his face, a wink in the eye, and is optimistically inclined, even if that optimism is completely unfounded), it is the following chart from UBS which shows the progression of consensus bottom-up EPS growth estimates for Europe: "consensus estimates for 2012 EPS growth have fallen from double digits at the end of last year to 0.7% currently." Observe the straight thin blue line below: it begins in the land of Hopium, and ends in Reality.

Of course, there are 5 more months in the year. By the time 2012 is actually done, the YoY change will actually be negative.

That, however has not prevented the same analysts who have been so massively wrong on 2012 to keep their 2013 forecast at its highs, and rising, and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year.