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The Thin Blue Line Between Hopium And Reality

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If there was one unique datapoint that confirms beyond a reasonable doubt the perpetual upside bias of "analysts" and other snake oil salesmen (after all, one is far more likely to buy the stuff another is selling if one has a smile on his face, a wink in the eye, and is optimistically inclined, even if that optimism is completely unfounded), it is the following chart from UBS which shows the progression of consensus bottom-up EPS growth estimates for Europe: "consensus estimates for 2012 EPS growth have fallen from double digits at the end of last year to 0.7% currently." Observe the straight thin blue line below: it begins in the land of Hopium, and ends in Reality.

Of course, there are 5 more months in the year. By the time 2012 is actually done, the YoY change will actually be negative.

That, however has not prevented the same analysts who have been so massively wrong on 2012 to keep their 2013 forecast at its highs, and rising, and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year.

 

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Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:24 | 2673270 GMan_
GMan_'s picture

well the ANAL-ysts have to do something. They're paid to pump up stocks.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:28 | 2673290 Brother Sebastian
Brother Sebastian's picture

And they espouse "value investing," the art of buying low and selling lower.  When I had a broker, I often told him that's what he made me.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:09 | 2673446 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

can anyone explain why the vix is trading down? 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:18 | 2673490 mirac
mirac's picture

ZH had an article on the Vix, last week I think - that explains that there is this arb trade involving vix, but it was a bit over my head...esentially derivative games to keep markets up.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 02:10 | 2674986 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

perhaps this is a comment too general to be shown here, but, last i heard the russian dude that started this site was hit for something over a thousand dollars of "inside trading".  

bet they wish they had waved that one by.

p.s. thanks for keeping us at least part with our constitution.  oh the enlightenment.  catherine the great had virtues well beyond the inter species.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:02 | 2673420 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

Think of all the earnings "beats" still to come! /sarc on

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:21 | 2673503 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

The chart can also show "The Thin Blue Line" as law enforcement going from Order to Chaos...

Remember, not everyone will not agree on everything but we can agree on a couple of core principles against Banksters, unresponsive politicians, Federal law/military enforcement agencies. Shoulder to shoulder we must stand up to tyranny...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:07 | 2673439 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

Skynet going live in   3,,,,2,,,,,1

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:24 | 2673271 vinu02
vinu02's picture

Its bubble of hope, it has to burst either way. http://www.freefdawatchlist.com

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:05 | 2673429 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Don't you just love when the D dops 120 and VIX drops .77 ?

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:24 | 2673273 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

That, however has not prevented the same analysts who have been so massively wrong on 2012 to keep their 2013 forecast at its highs, and rising, and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year.

 

that's because they think the mayans said there won't be a 2013 anyway.

no accountability bitchez

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:21 | 2673504 mirac
mirac's picture

There will be a 2013 and it will be an awful year, for markets and everything else

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:25 | 2673274 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

CODY WILLARD = STUPID PERFORMANCE CHASER

= STUPID CBS-MW "REPORTER"...he told you to buy FB @ $27....he rode to $33 and rode to $19 (still riding) and he bought more @ $23..NOW he tells you to buy AAPL @ $600 = UNFREAKINBELIABLE !!

he has said on previous articles that he was "trained by the best" = jim crank-a-holic cramer...ok i can see why...crank says: buy aapl @ $620, nflx @ $300, slv @ $45, gold @ 1800 (after tanking from 1900) = me shooOOOOORT !!

 http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/08/02/how-to-trade-apple-into-the-new-iphone-launch/

 

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/07/31/olympic-sponsors-on-the-wrong-track/

 

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/07/23/how-facebook-gets-to-100/

 

making $$$$$ in the casino = soooo easy..just KEEP TRACK of the shoe shine boys and BET AGAINST THEM !!!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:30 | 2673296 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

i bought FB

@ 26 and DUMPED @ $30...did not chase to $33...

and recently short covered my 1386 shorts from last fri @ 1360 today...waiting for pump to 1380+ to reshort and final pop before sub 1300.

also waiting for EUR pop to 1.225+ to reshort.

waiting in cash...can wait days...NO PROBLEM !!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:43 | 2673351 Itch
Itch's picture

Have you ever heard of the Harptones man...they rock.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rHqV3YMTP8

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 02:20 | 2674994 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i keep waiting for them to pick it up and mention sh boom.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBgQezOF8kY&feature=related

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:44 | 2673356 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

STUPID cbs-MW CENSORS

is that you thumbing me down??? ROFLMAO !!! LOL !!! remember that it was your LIE-beral stance that got me booted off mw...i told u guys you idiots were a bunchof DEMON-RATic odummernomics, RAPE the peasants with INFLATION and DEBT to "saaaaave" the fat cat's casino and that apparently did not "conform" with the "communitie's guidlines" = LOL !!

i love zero hedge !!!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:06 | 2673437 pods
pods's picture

Dude, put down the pipe.

pods

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 02:23 | 2674996 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

ditto.

anyone who thinks the u.s. political parties are more real than professional wrestling or (going farther back) the harlem globetrotters vs. the washington generals has not been paying attention lately.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:35 | 2673320 oddjob
oddjob's picture

gayest excuse ever for watching CNBC.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:58 | 2673406 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Your lack of "tolerance" will not be tolerated. Off to the education camps for sensitivity training with you.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 02:26 | 2674997 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

getting caught up in the divisive shit much?

look at it selfishly.  gay men will not steal pussy from you.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:51 | 2673382 ObungaBoy
ObungaBoy's picture

what makes CODY WILLARD different than all other MarketWatch jewish liars

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:30 | 2673277 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

I trust even the weathermen more than I trust any of the so-called analysts.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:34 | 2673318 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i use a stock rock. whatever the rock tells me to buy i buy. so far nothing.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:25 | 2673278 Yardstick of Ci...
Yardstick of Civilization's picture

Long VIX seems like such a no brainer play here . . . . 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:28 | 2673289 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yardstick that thought has thrust many to the front of the line for a free kick in the balls for a long time now.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:27 | 2673283 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

If the president gets re-elected that hope line will do the death cross on the reality line for sure.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:35 | 2673322 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

What will happen if he doesn't get re-elected? Perhaps GWB and BO should alternate indefinately to bring us prosperity. 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:42 | 2673346 akak
akak's picture

 

Perhaps GWB and BO should alternate indefinately

And the difference between the two would be ......?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:49 | 2673373 kito
kito's picture

one is the bankers left leg, the other is the bankers right leg.......both are needed for them to stand...........

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:03 | 2673416 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

And the difference between the two would be ......?

It's a difference in style:

GWB & Co. stole from us and raped us and our brothers and sisters and looked us in the eye while doing so and smiled his evil smile and told us that it's all our fault.

BO flirted with us, promised the moon and vacation in Paris, and we laid in bed with him. Tomorrow morning the bastard was gone with our money. 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 19:43 | 2674388 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

So, you like getting ass raped gently and getting the kiss, followed by the words "I love you and will never lie to you"?????!!!!!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 19:40 | 2674382 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

The initials R or D. That is about it.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:49 | 2673374 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So theyre doing everything they can for The One's re-election thingy, with the knowledge that if He does get back in then we;re really fucked. Ok its all makin sense now.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:55 | 2673402 kito
kito's picture

hey sheepie, bernanke didnt propose yesterday............sigh........poor girl, he keeps promising, and she keeps hoping..........will she ever get that marriage proposal???????????

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:27 | 2673284 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Is there any volume today? Will I be hearing "we are well off the lows" in a half hour?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:29 | 2673542 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Here it comes.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:27 | 2673285 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

One fucking disaster after another. If we were more technologically advanced(thank god we aren't based on what it's done so far) people would not only be fleeing the banks with cash but getting the fuck off this planet. One huge time bomb. I don't know how anyone could one bit of faith in any of this shit anymore.

Fuck 'em all 2012. Get the rope.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:32 | 2673286 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's a good thing that I'm in high dividend paying stawks, just imagine the cash flow the companies will have this time next year.

 

Sarc/...the disclaimer is for those not bright enough to get  sarcasm....you know who you are.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:32 | 2673302 bdc63
bdc63's picture

12.1%?!??  Holy mother of God ...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:40 | 2673342 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I think they meant in a different solar system.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:32 | 2673304 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Woe is unto us.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:33 | 2673308 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

They'll move with the herd.  One should pay very close attention when all the analysts say we're doomed.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:34 | 2673312 Clark80
Clark80's picture

Yeah, but it's 12% off a lower base! Not to worry.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:34 | 2673313 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

Our EPS estimates of 2013 are sponsored by EASTON Hockey Equipment proud partner of Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:48 | 2673370 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Illegal banana curves on those hockey sticks.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:35 | 2673321 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

 

 

Looks like it's time for the 1430 ramp attempt...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:35 | 2673323 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

While we're talking about hopium...

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/08/01/MEXICO-DISSOLVES-THEIR-FBI...
Mexico Dissolves Its FBI, Moves to Legalize Drugs

http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120802/174924803.html
Turkish Army Holds Drills on Syria Border

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/China_says_Japan_defence_report_irrespon...
China says Japan defence report 'irresponsible'

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Syria_rebels_bombard_air_base_near_Alepp...
Syria rebels bombard air base near Aleppo: AFP, NGO

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/S_Korea_close_to_expanding_missile_ran...
S. Korea close to expanding missile range: report

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/S_Korea_to_stage_military_drill_near_d...
S. Korea to stage military drill near disputed island

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Australia_rules_out_US_nuclear_aircraf...
Australia rules out US nuclear aircraft carrier base

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Iraq_says_July_deadliest_month_in_nearly...
Iraq says July deadliest month in nearly two years

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China_hits_back_at_new_US_sanctions_ov...
China hits back at new US sanctions over Iran

http://www.firstpost.com/world/us-gives-25-mn-aid-to-syrian-rebels-40193...
US gives $25 mn aid to Syrian rebels

Syria replaces border guards with combat forces to prevent any infiltration from Lebanon to Syria

Turkey to double size of Syria refugee camps. 5 new facilities housing further 50k refugees to be completed over next 3 weeks - Hurriyet

White House: Annan resignation shows 'failure' of Russia, China to act at UN Security Council - @AP

http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120801/174912552.html
Iran to Drop $4-bln Claim if Russia Delivers S-300 Missiles: Envoy

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120801/DEFREG04/308010006/Israel-Na...|newswell|text|World%20News|p
Israel Navy Completes Major Drill

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:40 | 2673337 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Just like US analysts!  The US is about to enter a recession.  Europe is entering a depression.  China is about to see its bubble pop along with its ridiculous real estate market, and fucking India cannot even keep its lights on. However, analyst are calling for the S&P 500 to earn record earnings next year!   Really.....are people really that stupid?  Is everyone taking "stupid pills"?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:47 | 2673366 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They designed the chaos, and now that its here it seems they got cold feet.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:09 | 2673449 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

No fear. They are just taking their sweet time. Timing is everything.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:47 | 2673639 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I agree that timing is everything, that's why it cant happen until after the elections. Regardless of who wins.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:53 | 2673388 pavman
pavman's picture

...are people really that stupid?  Is everyone taking "stupid pills"?

Everytime I drive somewhere these days I ask myself the same dam question.  Must be something in the water.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:36 | 2673587 giddy
giddy's picture

Same phucks trying to sell muppets on "hopium" while they steal all real  "hope".  All economic prosperity starts with hope.  

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:43 | 2673946 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

For the most part, nearly ALL equity analysts and their bulltard bretheren are DELUDED from the time they wake up until the time they wake up again. Unfortunately, this is what many consider to be 'The American Way'....They have no basis is reality and live in a world of their own construct. Most cannot get laid on a regular basis, either. That's where the deluded 'all day' quality comes into play....

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:41 | 2673344 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Who cares?

The 2pm pump calvalry showed up.  They ass hump this back to positive by the close.  They could give a shit less about legalities and even less about hiding it.

it's...IN YO FACE.

Just watch in amazement.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:43 | 2673349 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I'm watching. Its kind of surrealistic.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:45 | 2673357 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just shows how completely desperate they are now.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:47 | 2673369 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

i think it's gonna fail today...market (broke/rigged/fucked/otherwise) sucks.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:00 | 2673412 RSloane
RSloane's picture

The S&P with one loud whimper thusly spoke "Heal Me!" and the luminous hand of the money lords rested down on the S&P's quaking shoulders then sayeth in a wonderous voice, "I have healed you, go and fail no more. At least until tomorrow at 2 PM."

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:02 | 2673418 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I've come to accept that they'll literally 'do' whatever the fuck they want to.

Here comes the next wave of relentless bidding right 3pm.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:18 | 2673493 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

It really is extraordinary. Based on the calls/sentiment around my office you'd think this thing could not move up...and like some magician's muse the lady rises and levitates off the table.

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:26 | 2673527 RSloane
RSloane's picture

DJIA now down 124, S&P down 12. These numbers are changing like every ten seconds. Last read prior to this one had DJIA down 112. Its like watching the Olympic table tennis games all over again.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 14:57 | 2673403 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Look on the bright side folks,

The time is almost upon us to pay back in kind what the wall street, london mile has given us.

And in my very astute and opinionated opinion, I really do believe they will shit their fucking shorts for what a certain percentage of us have up our sleeve.

Watch out big men, us little ones are awake.

Cunts

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:00 | 2673411 Haager
Haager's picture

 "---and forecast a 12.1% EPS growth next year"

Damn, I am in need of a new keyboard now.

They will continue the inflation/devaluation-dance, 10-15% over that year, managing some stability in the price within the eurozone.


Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:07 | 2673438 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

hey.. its too early in the day for the end of the day algo ramp....another bad program?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 15:40 | 2673614 sablya
sablya's picture

And the VIX is down again.  No reason to buy puts today, no sir.

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