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Is Third Time The Charm For Central Bank Intervention Prayers?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Of course this time is different, right?

 

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Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:21 | 2666478 GMan_
GMan_'s picture

Yes. Keep smoking that Hopium you dumb mofo WS traders. Damn Algos running the place. Prop Firm A buys from Prop Firm B and Sells it to Prop Firm C and then repeat insane process. 

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:28 | 2666503 strannick
strannick's picture

3rd time? I thought this was like the 10th time.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:50 | 2666559 malikai
malikai's picture

My S&P model is looking apocalyptic right now.

I hope it's wrong, but it's converging.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 21:31 | 2667154 1000924014093
1000924014093's picture

Do tell.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 02:20 | 2667799 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

u might be right, could be 4% drop today, not apocalyptic yet

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:53 | 2666563 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Bill Gross said today the stock market is dead..

Newsflash Bill,

It's been dead a long time.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gross-latest-join-stocks-171132221.html

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:39 | 2666670 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

Bill Gross is a sniveling shit of a shrew.  Second, he's in bonds.  So be it.  Each person has their own market.  Not saying I dissagree or agree with him, but if you are going to take your leads from some?  Quote somone other than Bill Gross.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:58 | 2666565 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

First of all. 

Unless every trading unit out there is frontrunning, then the market will exist in harmony, as it is now.

All of you Cry and complain that the market is impossible to play.

There are literally HUNDREDS of trading strategies that you can use.

Even methods that can defeat front running.

The market is perfectly healthy.  Yes it is overdue for a small fall.  Maybe even a thousand or two.

But there is absolutely no reason to proclaim the market is worthless or not worth time and effort.

 

How long will you all keep QQ'ing that the market is impossible to participate in?

Yes there is gold and silver manipulation, but wtf do you expect banks to do?

All ow gold and silver to sky rocket thus quickening the death of the dollar?

Do you REALLY want to experience hyper inflation quickly?  NO.

MOREOVER, the longer gold and silver stay low, the longer smart, courageous, motivated people have to wake up and understand they need to buy gold and silver at these artificially low prices.

 

You would rather pull up the ladder and leave all the younger people who have a chance to wake up still?

What a crock of shit!  There is still plently of time which will allow would be muppets to wake up and protect their money.

You seem to proclaim the market end is just around the corner!  But you are always wrong!

Stop calling the death of the markets! when they are alive and healthy.  & stop mistreating them like they should be crashed into the ground just b/c BBKing didn't give you QE.  You are like spoiled children.

What you should do?  Be responsible. Don't try to crash the market into bearitory.  Move to create fair market value.  Don't expect FMV to exist in metals.  & treat QE like it should be used.  To prevent a 2008 plunge.  btw market's got an 80% chance of crashing tomorrow.

In B4 bear-trolls hatehatehate

 

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:03 | 2666589 malikai
malikai's picture

No hate here. For those who haven't noticed, everyone is "in" the game, whether we pretend we aren't or not. Thanks to our central planners destroying the store of value aspect of our money.

The "game" can and is played by everyone connected to it - and that is all of us - whether we like it or not.

The only choice is to play it smart or be consumed by it.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 02:25 | 2667808 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Agreed.  I like to be delta neutral - long stock, long puts, zero delta.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 19:15 | 2666772 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

LOL!!!

 

FULL MOON RETARDS TRAVEL IN PACKS...

8 Days to go.

Expect all the regulars.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 22:11 | 2667238 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

I like them beaten, drained for blood, and stirfried, thanks.

 

Ice berg ahead!

 

August 1st  -

Full Sturgeon Moon

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/full-moon-dates-and-times/
Tue, 07/31/2012 - 20:21 | 2666981 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Careful not to get Corzined. But how can you be careful about that? I guess one way would be to keep investments running out of profits. That if the loss happens to quick to get out of you already have your money out.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 11:08 | 2668700 cramers_tears
cramers_tears's picture

Sure the market is alive... but healthy?  It's all about figuring out the fraud now.  Incorporating fraud and the false economy of America into your business analysis is what's required in this market.  Janet Tavakoli -"Fraud As a Business Model"   There was a time when I frequented a horse track in Illinois when I was a teen and an old-timer told me the only way to make money at this particular track was to "FIGURE OUT HOW THEY'RE GOING TO CHEAT."  That's some of the best advice I've ever heard.  In today's market it's the only rule that guides me.  Figure out how they're going to cheat.  My Aug FB Puts thank you.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:38 | 2666532 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I used to think the powers in charge were biding their time, getting these extensions and setting themselves up to make it through the collapse......

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:44 | 2666548 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Of course this time is different, right?"

F*ck no, Tyler.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:50 | 2666558 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Notice amplitude of the rise and fall is getting smaller. FOMC and FED having little effect -like a heroin addict. Need more frequent or bigger injections to maintain a similar high. Everytime is different...the results still end up being a government/banking class turbocharged assisted deflationary crash.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:13 | 2666601 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Don't worry, they're working on the new & improved "Must fight terrorists or they'll kill us all" drug.

Then the sheeple will forget all about the placebos that Benron hands out.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:23 | 2666484 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

This will fix everything.

Hail Obama!

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:24 | 2666487 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Red or black.....place your bets!!

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:36 | 2666526 cliffynator
cliffynator's picture

"Always bet on black!"

--Passenger 57

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:52 | 2666564 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Until you get that green 0 or 00.

 

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 23:56 | 2667563 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I watched a driver carefully fill the roulette table with bets.

So did everyone else. It took 10 minutes to load the entire table with chip stacks.

 

The wheel spun, the ball picked a spot and that was that.

 

So many chips disappeared and a few large ones showed up. To this day I am not sure who won. The house or the driver. I ought to try it sometime one day.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:27 | 2666489 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Goosing the market at <3% off the highs will only be seen as political and too much of the *cough* data *cough* has come in not as damning as expected.  Also, they haven't jawboned it enough.  We need some more, "they've got the market's back" and are prepared to act BS.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:26 | 2666493 hedgeisforpussies
hedgeisforpussies's picture

sell sell sell

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 01:45 | 2667759 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

I love the name and share the sentiment.  Diversification over, not of, hedging.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:27 | 2666500 XitSam
XitSam's picture

No. Next question.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:30 | 2666505 Rainman
Rainman's picture

This time is different.....the Kenyan's commitment to 100-day waterboarding of the Bernank should gitterdone.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:30 | 2666511 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

the yo-yo effect, treating the muppets like
mushrooms! fed a bunch of shit and kept in the
dark.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:32 | 2666514 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

no QE. I'm sick of all this pimp talk on the QE bullshit to drive up prices only to see them come down after a dose of reality.

 

THEY WILL NOT QE BEFORE THE ELECTION... AND... They know what you know and will want to get more bang for the buck; so we'll be hurt'n beg'n like ho with her mouth open, before QE number 3 comes... WHY?

cause, third time is the charm... everyone will get it, the US of A is finished.

 

GOLDS

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:11 | 2666597 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

ps. GOLDS after it sells off wednesday.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 19:21 | 2666792 arby63
arby63's picture

I am beginning to believe the only stores of value left are ammo and food.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:32 | 2666515 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Perfect set up for a gold smash and grab when they take it all down off of a 150 to 200 point controlled plunge in /ES

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:40 | 2666536 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

My thought also.

Gold raid tomorrow if they stick to form.

Every time Bernanke speaks or the FOMC meets.

I just do not trust this gold 'market' enough to short it.One day its going to go

vertical when the banks cash out of the ponzi,and pile into physical.

 

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:42 | 2666542 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

They'll be well into the physical before it goes vertical.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:45 | 2666550 sabra1
sabra1's picture

gold will go vertical when the fed seizes all your golds!

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:53 | 2666568 malikai
malikai's picture

Since when are the FED guys scuba divers?

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:50 | 2666557 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I won't short it, but I agree that it's a good idea to be prepared to buy on these FOMC days.  These clowns pull the same trick over and over.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:37 | 2666529 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

agreed. . but romney too much of a dumbshit to know that a QE basically is setting the election. If there were no QE OT, things with markets and election would be a whole lot different.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:37 | 2666530 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Short gold and silver, as always.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:40 | 2666535 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Last 10 years must have been rough on you.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:42 | 2666547 Conman
Conman's picture

Id assume he was talking about post-fomc like the article is referring to.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:38 | 2666531 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The world has food inflation tsunami headed towards the shores greater than any seen in a generation. Unleash QE3 Daddy Bernanke and set the world on fire. This way you will not be tarnished by history because records will be ashes. 

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:40 | 2666534 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and then we wonder why other countries/people hate us.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:42 | 2666543 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

buy the qe rumor sell the qe news.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 01:49 | 2667765 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

LIAR.  ALWAYS GO LONG THE QE NEWS.  BEN IS OUR FRIEND.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:44 | 2666549 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

We need to see the Hitler's reaction...

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:48 | 2666555 mrfreeman
mrfreeman's picture

Can someone confirm if anything is happening with gold and silver CME margins this week?  I'm sure I saw a post here a few weeks ago linking to a notice on the CME website about expiry of margins or something on 5/8/12?  I can't find it now, and there isn't anything on the CME website.  

I know they reduced the margins earlier in the year as they were clearly losing business after the MF Global fiasco, but did this reduction have a time limit?  Because if so, when that time limit expires it would equate to a margin HIKE!  Which of course would fit their purposes perfectly just at the right moment.  But maybe I hallucinated the post.  I actually don't see how it would help their business at all if they increase margins again, but anyway.  Hopefully I misread the whole thing.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:01 | 2666583 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Sorry, there was no rep from the CME @ the coin shop.

Damn those rapids.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 17:49 | 2666556 rebelscum1967
rebelscum1967's picture

long bond auctions next week...need a plunge to issue some debt.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:02 | 2666586 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

They sucked everyone in with that "Where would the Market Be?" Fed chart that was published a couple of weeks ago.  Now the populis is thinking, "Well the Fed said that we should be in the market the day of announcements, so we must ramp up the ES 60 points prior to the meeting."  I think after the next three days there will be an appendix to that Fed research piece...

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:05 | 2666590 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Prayer from the Equity Market to the FED.  More QE or we'll crash it all. 

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 01:49 | 2667766 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

go fuck yourself cunt.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:08 | 2666594 China
China's picture

China very sick of you people hoping system crashes. China need more time to import gold while pant bagging, real Christian hating Amerikans buy Chineese Trinkets (thank you)

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:11 | 2666596 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This is so obvious. No QE tomorrow. Bernanke talks his balls off about how ready he is to do it. Over the next few weeks we get some green sharts from the data. September Bernanke backs off the QE talk and says he is hopeful the economy is picking up. The market muddles along through it while metals get hammered. Same as it ever was.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:13 | 2666600 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Also if he does QE he will set off a major bond selloff as everyone dumps treasuries for risk assets. Maybe thats what he wants but it will only send mortgage rates up so I don't see how he wants that.

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:21 | 2666621 Haager
Haager's picture

QE Hopeyness is on all time high, so the markets needs to rock first. According to Hopey I would assume some 1600 compared with April, and 1400+ compared with June. So, EVA, lets rock...

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 18:40 | 2666669 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Weekly Dow shows a bigger picture of what's pending - primary wave 3 down.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/dow-jones-industrial-average-weekly-jul...

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 20:36 | 2667020 Hallpass2012
Hallpass2012's picture

I agree with  Muppet of the U..., just STFU and trade this bitch and make a shit load of paper, roll the paper into other assets, or even better when shit hits the fan play momentum on high probability trades... just you have to make a strategy that gives you excellent odds, & no you do not need inside info or anything else like that in order for you to slaughter the market, everyone just do your duty which is to please that booty heheh jk

just beat the market, I do it consistently :)

Tue, 07/31/2012 - 20:58 | 2667080 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Just, Wow.  You should make your own Charles Schwab commercial.  But go ahead and have another drink.  No crime there.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 03:18 | 2667848 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

No

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 22:03 | 2667908 pamriallc
pamriallc's picture

You'll get S&P earnings of $100 this year.  The number will be something like $135 in 10 years at around 5% growth annually.  Weather that's adjusted for inflation or not.... it doesn't matter.  With the same average increase in dividends (5% annually) you get an index yield of almost 5% by 2022 if the S&P price stayed the same.

History:  Basically remember that when long term interest rates were something like 7% in 1993 the S&P still sold for around 14X earnings.  Lots of banks on the ropes then, too, with the S&L crisis really close in the rear-view mirror.

High estimate of 14X earnings is S&P 2000 or something close.

Low estimate of S&P at 8X earnings puts us at around 1100 with a 6% current dividend yield 10 years from now with the same low level estimates in mind with profit margins and S&P "earnings multiple" reverting back to the long term mean average using a depression economics scenario.

This compares to  10 year treasury yield of around 1.4% currently.

There you go.  Strap yourself in for the ride of a lifetime and buy the index.  Better than cash, better than bonds, more liquid than real-estate.

Put the rest in metals or "real assets" with a bias toward energy and we talk in another 10 years.

Waiting is the hard part.  Buying the S&P and selling 12 month calls and puts 20% away from current value will probably increase the potential return by 2-3% annually if you're lucky.  Basically a slow lazy process of beating cash and bonds.

 

DEC-2013 120's and 145's are around $8.00 per contract.  That's $16 in volatility premia.  If all you wanted was to collect the dividend and an additional 5% option premia, you would have a nice return here, and still own the index.  Worse things can happen.  Sell put options and get around double the premia but with the possibility of buying SPY at $130 and then getting "put out" in which cash you basically have $130 - $16 = $114 and you make "a half a percent" plus dividend income for the period.

Wed, 08/01/2012 - 16:56 | 2670233 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

Hope and Change !!

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