For Those Not Watching CDS Implode, It Is Heinous
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
IG16 is 125.5 +10 as I type. Could be 5 bps different by the time I finish writing. Main is being quoted on 2 bp markets. I'm seeing IG16 quoted on anywhere from 1 to 2 bp market. Typical bid/off is 1/2 a bp. HY16 is down 1 3/4 points again, but shockingly is still being quoted in 1/4 pt markets by most dealers. It could be a bright spot when the weakest of weak is actually holding on to some liquidity. Maybe have some people looking for the bottom in that market. SOVX is trading on 6 bp markets, and fins in Europe are all over the place.
Not much to say, that I didn't say yesterday. We are back to seeing bank bear raids and if anything, the markets are brokener (and my spelling is worse). I'm not sure liquidity at the bank funding level can disappear as quickly as we are pricing in, so am pretty sure someone is going to buy IG16 at a price that brings tears to their eyes later today. It may be the 125.5 print. It might not, but this will be gappy. There is zero liquidity and the market is trading in a vacuum. This could be ugly in either direction from here. I guess it already has been in Europe where the markets were positive for awhile.
Finally, it is a shame and in many ways an embarrassment that no one could figure out how to get CDX indices on an exchange by now. E-minis are there trading away all day and night long. IG16 right now has 10 dealers scrambling around trying not to be off market and 100's of clients staring at their phone, guessing what dealer is most likely not to flake if they call for a trade. And a few, looking around trying "make the market more efficient" by finding which dealers are a second too slow to change their prices. An utter failure by the exchanges and regulators to not have some version of this in the truly public domain.
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