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Three Charts Of Equity Complacency Pre-ISDA
Equities have drifted sideways at their highs for the last few hours. Meanwhile, credit markets have sold off, Volatility and implied correlation have pushed higher, and broad risk assets (CONTEXT) has leaked lower. Complacency, or do stock momo algos know something everyone else doesn't?
Equities vs Credit...
Equities vs Vol...
Equities vs CONTEXT (broad risk)...
Charts: Bloomberg
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no
they have the same info
unfortunately, L0L!!!
everything remains screwed down tight, imo, with some shorts getting dressed for the hamptons, is all
UK in urgent national security emergency:
Security: UK 'must plan for euro collapse'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17295461
L0L
whatever it takes for an emergency run of 500 Bil Pounds for the weekend!
since when have these fukers needed a "reason tp print"?
certainly not in the last year, so why believe their prop-wash today, ax?
the UK may need to print, and this may just be a convenient "truth"/cover b/c they are pretty much tits-up without printing, from what i have seen, recently
so this is really funny, to me!
blaming the EU! get it?
London Olympics will signify the end party. Good riddance as far as I'm concerned.
CREDIT EVENT BITCHEZ
http://www.isda.org/dc/view.asp?issuenum=2012030901
Ongoing 3/9/2012 EMEA_Determinations_Committee_Decision_09032012
EMEA_Determinations_Committee_Statement_09032012
Yes, a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred with respect to The Hellenic Republic
yay!!!
and, we can all stop drinking now and have a nice family weekend!
Great find if that's true. As if there was ever any real question they would default. Only question was could they cover it up or not.
Everything is fine. iPad3 is coming out next week.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/feedarticle/10133241
The joint committee on the government's National Security Strategy (NSS) said the full or partial collapse of the single currency was "plausible".
The Brits are always so God Damned polite...
Click above
I think the info about DTCC and the Fed owning all stocks in reality on that site, is more interesting. Your link goes to an article that has ZH linked in it. But finding out no one actually owns the stocks and bonds they think they do is pretty disturbing.
I agree, in light of MF Global and many other situations it is highly disturbing to know we are all just beneficiaries of our stocks, bonds, etc. Seems like it would be very easy to have ownership transferred to some kind of government control or worse in an emergency, as they did with gold confiscation in the 30's.
so, is the thinking that WHEN isda triggers cds, we could have a repeat similar to LEH bankruptcy?
btw, everyone is aware what today is, correct?
...... maybe Friday?
3-yr since S&P low?
1 year anniversary of Fukushima
... and the infamous "Haines bottom" from '09
101 years and c...
Nice one! Yes, I remember it well, the G20 met at the O2 arena in London that week and the markets immediately turned up.
DavidC
No, nothing will happen... There's not much money involved. I'm a loyal ZeroHedger, but I swear I'd be a way better trader if I just read MarketWatch instead.
I totally agree that you would be a better trader. I'm sure the vast majority of traders follow Market Watch, Bloomburg or CNBC, so they move the market according to the mood they set. If you're going to trade on market conditions, 90+% of the time it is not reality that you should trade on but the perception because it is not reality that causes the market to go up or down, it is perception.
There's an entire weekend to figure out some BS fuckery to ramp the market after the trigger.
Central banks are buying stock...wouldn't surprise me if Madman Ben & the ECB simply bought up everything no one else wants at par. Which, of course, would make this default bullish.
fuck that, they will make the markets collapse then buy significant interests in major companies with newly printed fiat
Yes, there's that too.
Or both over time.
The banks have had 2 years to prepare for this, so they better be ready. I suspect we'll see that all the LTRO2 money that was immediately parked at the ECB will be withdrawn to pay off the CDSs ... quite the "coincidence" ...
But you might want to listen to what Sinclair has to say about it: hhtp://www.jsmineset.com/2012/01/30/the-impending-undeclared-default-of-5-major...
Why would banks prepare for losses when the PTB have got their backs?
the shadows of reality...
what is with the Ransquawk headlines regarding a Greek Credit Event?
Getting word the ISDA says a credit event has occurred
are you for real? When ... post man
http://www.businessinsider.com/theres-a-report-circulating-that-isda-has-declared-a-credit-event-in-greece-2012-3
That's the latest. Notice how everything has suddenly went quite?
THEY JUST CHANGED THE TITLE, just now
Derivatives Intelligence (part of Institutional Investor) reports that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association has determined that Greece has triggered a credit event as part of its debt restructuring.
This would provoke credit default swaps—insurance contracts on Greek bonds issued under Greek law—to be payed out.
But we don't know why they have this and nobody else does, and we can't confirm. Therefore, we have certain misgivings about the veracity of this report. While everyone expects that this will be the outcome, the report is not currently out.
ISDA's committee met today to discuss the issue, and said it would issue a statement on whether or not a credit event had occurred once Greece formally activated the collective action clauses it recently inserted into its Greek debt issuances.
Consensus is that activating the CACs will indeed provoke a credit event, however analysts have been waiting all day for a decision to be published here, to no avail (yet).
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/theres-a-report-circulating-that-isda-has-declared-a-credit-event-in-greece-2012-3#ixzz1oeKzjEKDAnyone who knows the basic rules knows a CAC is an automatic trigger... no matter how they try and spin it
it will trigger!
Just an FYI at 2.32 they say event has occurred. Its done...
and the fun begins?
The best investment for 2012 will be a bag of seeds to grow your own food and a greenhouse to grow them.
already done! Chickens too...and extra "polish". :)
it has Triggered
correct it posted
never mess with a CACodemon....unless you have the BFG9000.
yes ... and out of a sudden they changed the title..
i think this is it, it coming no doubt
Won't be anything real until after 4:01pm EST.........
Linking to BI usually ends up in a visit by Durden. If 'Simone Foxman' is a real reporter, well... I'll gladly bang her.
Yep....TOO quiet.
Rudderless Titanic equity markets just right where theyve been all day like the uncontrollable ghost ship behemoth it is.
thanks jus lite reading! :)
then maybe we'll get a small sell-off on the "news"
this is pretty well choreographed, tho, imo
if they have not got the greek CDS sorted out in the past year, they let some divine BEing do it, later
or tyler
but they may have figured out "all" these swaps, already, of course...
I smell popcorn!
Yes, and the smell of the market going UP because this is a non-event.
What do you mean market up, DOW up +40? Been there since open.
Is it just me or has everything grinded to a standstill?
Ever seen Dark City; they need to stop time and change all our memories to keep the farce alive.
It's 20:30 CET. Do you know where your ISDA rep is?
Prob waiting for 4:01 pm EST.
This has got to be one of the lowest volume days since December.
ZZZZZZzzzzzzZz
FCX at day low. That cannot be good.
Portugal up, Spain on deck, and Italy in the hole. Just keep this thread running through the summer.
Doesn't Ireland want a re-work?
You're talking like we won't be hearing from Greece anymore. That's crazy talk.
Interesting how, as the day has progressed and we now have the word (rumour?) that ISDA will declare a CDS-trigger event....Citigroup has gradually leaked lower from its intial euphoric high of 34.90 to 34.50 whilst MS has gone from doing nothing al day to its highs of 18.55. Small moves in the grand scheme of things, but is it perhaps a sign of how the market feels that one firm will suffer whilst another will benefit from a "credit event" being called? Way too simplistic, I now...but I've always wanted to know which banks sold a ton of protection, and which ones bought. In other words, which ones want the options to expire worthless, whilst the others want the insurance to apy out!
I'm pretty sure most of these "banks" have gotten flat on Greece exposure. If not the CEO's should be shot. Part of dragging this out was so these banks could offload risk. MFGlobal ring a bell?
DT is reporting that DI ISDA story incorrect. Back to the waiting game. I guess we're all chasing out tails now :)
The story looked pretty damn specific to me. Suddenly its 'incorrect'? I doubt that. Damage control maintenance men frantically rolling whitewash over the story more like it.
yeah, calm before the eye of the storm passes by.
'Equity complacency"? If by 'complacent' you mean a flatline coma patient, then yea.
ISDA says IS credit event!
When is the ISDA announcement?
DavidC
http://www.businessinsider.com/its-official-isda-triggers-greek-cds-2012-3
lolwut?
Apparently now this 'worst case scenario event horizon' is now 'no big deal at all'....oh ok.
Everything is a big deal until it actually happens.
RAN Squawk 15 minutes ago
According to an official ISDA report, a restructuring credit event has occurred with respect to Greece- the Committee has determined that an auction will be held in respect of outstanding CDS transactions on March 19th 2012.
Someting wery wong..
http://www.isda.org/dc/docs/EMEA_Determinations_Committee_Statement_0903...
The EMEA DC resolved that a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred under Section 4.7 of the ISDA 2003 Credit Derivatives Definitions (as amended by the July 2009 Supplement) (the 2003 Definitions) following the exercise by The Hellenic Republic of collective action clauses to amend the terms of Greek law governed bonds issued by The Hellenic Republic (the Affected Bonds) such that the right of all holders of the Affected Bonds to receive payments has been reduced.
The so-called 'markets' are dead silent, not even a blip out there like they shut off all the machines at once.
I sense a great disturbance in the (markets), as if millions of (algos) suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.
LOL