Is A Thunderous Flock Of Black Swans Imminent, Or The "Price Stability" Redux

Tyler Durden's picture

Update per commentary feedback: time to rebrand the Black Swan to The Black Loch Ness Monster.

For today's chart of the day we once again look to Bloomberg, which has compiled a fascinating dataset looking at the frequency of 4 sigma+ events in the S&P500 since 1951. The trend is unmistakable, as is that the cumulative total now looks glaringly like a swan itself (paging William Banzai). What is also glaringly obvious is that all those claiming central planning under a monetary authority leads to market stability need to have their head examined: what the central bankers of the world do is merely push back ever more disastrous events into the future. Sorry: physics can not be circumvented with a printer, and a crash deferred today, is double the crash that can not be deferred tomorrow. Yet for all their brain power, all those Hewlett Packard fans in the Marriner Eccles building still can not comprehend this one so simple fact.

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Pladizow's picture

"You can ignore reality, but you cant ignore the consequences of ignoring reality" - Ayn Rand

nodhannum's picture

And I can't ignore your avatar...makes me feel like a young child or teenager!

falak pema's picture

Its called a weiner moment. Or corn dog if you prefer.

Pain Train's picture

For the record (and I'm not hatin' but the distinction is important), a black swan is an UNFORSEEN event with tremendous effects. It is NOT simply a big, bad event. It's being misused a bit on this site.

 

faustian bargain's picture

Just because we see it here, doesn't mean everyone else in the world does as well.

After all, who are we? Me personally, I'm nobody. If I am made aware of some upcoming event, and can deal with it, sure it's not a black swan to me; but that won't prevent the country from collapsing if it's a big enough event.

The color of the swan is dependent on the awareness of the viewer.

cartonero's picture

The color of the swan is dependent on the awareness of the viewer.

Exactly.  What the turkey experiences as a black swan event is entirely expected by the farmer.

BlackholeDivestment's picture

...just wait for the lone nuke gunman from space, Krugman. That's gonna be the big swan dive.

-Michelle-'s picture

I'm starting to think they know something we don't.  Did you see NASA's latest "report?"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/aug/18/aliens-destroy-humanity-pr...

john39's picture

who needs an alien invasion (fake or otherwise), when war is just about to break out in the ME?

andybev01's picture

"just about"

 

Where have you been?

Stumpy's picture

I see the loch Ness monster.

Village Smithy's picture

Do you really want to trust your savings to a system that is trending like this? This is the best graphic representation of why buy and hold is dead. Now what happens to the multi-billion dollar buy and hold industry? BAC's lay-offs are only the beginning.

smlbizman's picture

there are somethings i know and somethings i don't...can someone use crayons and explain this to me

thanks

Diogenes's picture

There are storms that happen all the time. There are real bad storms that happen every few years. Then there is "the perfect storm" that only comes along once in a century.

The above graph shows how oftena "perfect storm" happens in the stock market. Notice how at the start, they happen once in a while but lately, all the time. That is because of the efforts by governments to PREVENT them from happening.

To put it another way, if you don't want the pot to boil over you can try strapping the lid down but if you do that without turning off the heat, it will blow anyway and take the whole kitchen with it.

Diogenes's picture

Slight correction... when I said prevent them from happening, what I should have said was cover them up and pretend nothing was wrong, instead of fixing the problem.

The new banking and stock market laws enacted in the thirties actually worked, until they were abandoned. Now the idea seems to be lie and deny, extend and pretend and everything will be OK.

Diogenes's picture

There are storms that happen all the time. There are real bad storms that happen every few years. Then there is "the perfect storm" that only comes along once in a century.

The above graph shows how oftena "perfect storm" happens in the stock market. Notice how at the start, they happen once in a while but lately, all the time. That is because of the efforts by governments to PREVENT them from happening.

To put it another way, if you don't want the pot to boil over you can try strapping the lid down but if you do that without turning off the heat, it will blow anyway and take the whole kitchen with it.

ZackLo's picture

Did you guys hear the news???!?!  HP is giving up it's computer business up to strictly dedicate it's time to printing for the FED! Now that's what I call sustainability!

H. Perowne's picture

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

-Upton Sinclair

Raymond Reason's picture

Indeed.  One of the greatest un-understood truths of all time. 

Calls and Putz's picture

All those derivatives never elimanted risk, they merely postponed it.

firstdivision's picture

They also amplified the risks, along with shifting the risk from firm risk to systemic risk. MAD, the risk manamgement kind.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Excellent points, yours and Putz's above. 

This is sympathetic resonance of the bridge busting kind. And it's just begun.

Vivek

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep.  We will all be farmers shortly.  Glad I am hedged accordingly.

Nascent_Variable's picture

Not only have the banksters destabilized the markets by printing FRN bandaids for bulletwounds in the economy, they've ensured that the inevitable bust will result in nuclear fallout when the "invest rich quick" derivatives market implodes.

I just hope they have the common decency to jump off their roofs this time.

Byte Me's picture

Postpone -- check

Amplify -- check

Morph risk -- check

But remember, nice fees were charged for quid-pro-quos, parasitic draining of capital enacted as an undeclared tax upon productive economies. This is necessary for a few MOTUs to award really fat bonuses to a chosen few.

So nothing changes then.

HellFish's picture

So this would be worse than a black swan - a Black Loch Ness Monster?

Oh regional Indian's picture

Actually we can call it the Black Lot Less Monster.

After it's done, you'll be worth a Lot Less.

;-)

Vivek

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

JW n FL's picture

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/194602.html

The first shipment of Iranian crude oil has been sold on Iran's international oil bourse on the Persian Gulf island of Kish, an Iranian official says.

Mohammad Reza Khajenasiri, the chief supervisor of bourses and markets in Iran's Bourse Organization, said that a shipment of 500,000 barrels of heavy crude oil were offered at the Kish Commodity Exchange on Thursday and were traded at USD 105.49 per barrel, Mehr News Agency reported.

doggings's picture

I thought they werent selling for USD?

Raymond Reason's picture

Yes, I thought that was the whole point.  It could be that they are reporting the story in dollar equivalents as disrespect. 

JW n FL's picture

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/193809.html

 

India has paid around 1.4 Billion US$ to Iran as part payment of its long over dues payments for oil exports thereby ending the long standing impasse in India -Iran oil relations.

India has followed and independent foreign policy and has not succumbed to any kind of pressure from the US on braking trade ties with Iran.

India imports oil worth $12 billion annually from Iran ,but India and Iran relations is not about oil alone.

*************************************************************************************************

 

You idiots should listen when I speak, instead of runing your fucking ignorant mouths.

Bam_Man's picture

It was actually priced in Qwatloos.

Seer's picture

A Flying Black Loch Ness Monster!

hugovanderbubble's picture

The Trigger is Societe Generale.

 

and Italian Generali Ass."-"

Miss Expectations's picture

This farmer has about 200 hens, but no rooster and he wants chicks. So, he goes down the road to the next farmer and asks if he has a rooster.

The other farmer says, "Yeah, I've got this great rooster, named Randy; he'll service every chicken you've got. No problem."

Well, Randy the rooster is a lot of money, but the farmer decides he'd be worth it. So, he buys Randy.

The farmer takes Randy home and sets him down in the barnyard, giving the rooster a pep talk...

"Randy, I want you to pace yourself now. You've got a lot of chickens to service here and you cost me a lot of money and I'll need you to do a good job. So, take your time and have some fun," the farmer said with a chuckle.

Randy seemed to understand, so the farmer points towards the hen house and Randy took off like a shot ~WHAM~ He nails every hen on there THREE or FOUR times and the farmer is just shocked.

Randy runs out of the hen house and sees a flock of geese down by the lake ~WHAM~ He gets all the geese.

Randy's up in the pigpen. He's in with the cows. Randy is jumping on every animal the farmer owns.

The farmer is distraught, worried that his expensive rooster won't even last the day.

Sure enough, the farmer goes to bed and wakes up the next day to find Randy in the middle of the yard looking like he is dead from exhaustion.

Buzzards are circling overhead. The farmer, saddened by the loss of such a colorful animal, shakes his head and says, "Oh, Randy, I told you to pace yourself. I tried to get you to slow down, now look what you've done to yourself."

Randy opens one eye, nods towards the sky and say's, "Shhh. They're getting closer..."

falak pema's picture

the spirit of dsk lives on...never say die!