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'Til Debt Did Europe Part

Tyler Durden's picture





 

'All is not resolved' is how Morgan Stanley's Arnaud Mares begins his latest diatribe on the debacle that is occurring in Europe. While a disorderly default seems to have been avoided (for now), the Greek problem (as we have discussed extensively) remains in play as debt sustainability seems questionable at best, economic recovery a remote hope, and the growing political tensions across Europe (and its people) grow wider. Critically, Mares addresses the seeming complacency towards a Greek exit from the euro area noting that it is no small matter and has dramatic consequences (specifically a la Lehman, the unintended consequences could be catastrophic). Greece (or another nation) leaving the Euro invites concerns over the fungibility of bank deposits across weak and strong nations and with doubt over the Euro, the EU could collapse as free-trade broke down. The key is that, just as in the US downgrade case last year, a Euro-exit implies the impossible is possible and the impact of such an event is much, much higher than most seem to realize. While the likelihood of a Greek euro-exit may remain low (for now), the scale of the impact makes this highly material and suggests the EU will do whatever it takes (print?) to hold the status quo.

 

Morgan Stanley: Til Debt Us Do Part

Of the importance of unintended consequences.

Our colleague Joachim Fels once described the current stage of the crisis in Europe with the acronym CCC, standing for a crisis of confidence, competency and credibility. One could add a fourth ‘C’ to this list, for consequences. A recurrent feature of the global crisis is the unintended consequences of policy actions. Perhaps the two most important milestones of the past four years were policy decisions, whose unanticipated consequences caused in each case a considerable degradation of the situation and extended the crisis both in scope and length.  

 

The first of these events was the decision by US authorities to let Lehman Brothers fail in September 2008, now widely acknowledged to have been a major policy error.

 

The second was the decision by European governments to initiate restructuring of public debt in Greece without having first put in place a robust safety net for solvent governments. This is also now widely regarded as a policy error. In each case, we note that many in the market initially applauded these decisions (when not actively calling for them beforehand) without seemingly fully appreciating the consequences.

 

Why would a Greek exit from the euro area be so damaging?

The euro is irreversible. Is it? The starting point of the analysis is the simple yet immensely important observation that if Greece were to leave the euro, this would imply that the euro is reversible.

Breaking down the fungibility of money. If the euro is reversible, it is not reversible in only one country. It is reversible in all. If Greece can leave the euro, then other countries may also leave the euro at a subsequent date. The implication is what we describe as a breakdown in the fungibility of money.

To explain this point, one must consider that in a fiat money system, money is the liability of a bank. It is the liability of the central bank in the case of central money, i.e., banknotes and bank reserves held at the central bank. It is the liability of commercial banks for commercial money, i.e., deposits.

As long as the euro and the Eurosystem exist in an irreversible form, these different forms of money are effectively fungible. Should the euro be reversible, however, these different forms of money are no longer completely fungible.

Federal money versus national money. Which is which? The euro may be a federal currency, but a deposit in a bank is effectively national money. If a country were to leave the euro, it would most likely be redenominated in that country’s new currency.

...

Strong money versus weak money. Which is which? As long as the euro is irrevocable, the distinction made above between federal and national money is irrelevant. By contrast, if the euro were to become reversible, this distinction matters. A euro held in a country more likely to abandon the euro becomes a weaker form of money than a euro held in a country more likely to keep it, with banknotes the strongest form of money.

...

How a run on money would unfold. In a situation where different forms of money are no longer entirely fungible, what one ought to expect is a run away from the weaker forms of money towards the stronger forms.

 

The erosion of deposits in Greece and Ireland provides but a glimpse of what would happen elsewhere if Greece exited the euro.

Contagion ought to be a familiar pattern by now. To illustrate this point, it suffices to recall that the failure of Lehman Brothers closed access to capital market and interbank funding to all banks, regardless of whether they were solvent or not. Similarly, the initiation of PSI for euro area sovereigns caused contagion not just to Ireland and Portugal but also to Spain, Italy, Cyprus, etc., and eventually France and Austria, regardless of whether the governments of these countries were objectively solvent or not.

...

No line of defence? The precedent of deposit haemorrhage in Greece and Ireland is nonetheless relevant in that it highlights the tools necessary to counter a bank run.

In a situation of a bank run, what prevents catastrophic outcomes (widespread bank failure) is the ability and willingness of the central bank to replace deposits and fund banks directly itself. This is what happened in Greece and Ireland, where the Eurosystem increased its lending to domestic banks.

Limits to the ability of the Eurosystem to intervene... The Eurosystem is however constitutionally constrained to only lending to banks against ‘adequate’ collateral.

and perhaps limits to its willingness. More fundamentally, if the euro were to become reversible, the nature of the risk taken by the central bank by replacing deposits would change substantially.

 

 

And the credit crunch would likely come back. Arguably, the points we have listed here are of secondary importance. More important is the fact that if banks lost their deposits, they are very unlikely to extend credit to the economy.

...

Conclusion: if one country goes, it is monetary union that goes.

Our conclusion at this stage is that Greece leaving the euro would not be a local event. It would change the nature of money everywhere across the euro area by making the euro reversible. It would turn most of money supply (commercial money) back into national money. It would hinder the ability (and possibly willingness) of the Eurosystem to act as a lender of last resort for the entire euro area banking system. For all practical purposes, it would be the end of the euro as a genuine single currency. It would also likely trigger an unstoppable run on banks, which would push large parts of the continent onto a depressionary and politically painful path.

To preserve the euro if Greece left would require total federalism in the rest of the area.

 


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Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

When will we reach critical mass with all this debt?  WHEN is the word, not if..   I'm betting 2017. 

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

5 years?? we crossed 100% GDP last week. it will be 5 months.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Hard1
Hard1's picture

The mayans knew!!!  I used to think that they just ran out of temple space to write dates and that people are very superstitious.  Now I think they knew all along.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:12 | Link to Comment knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

Months is more likely than years....I would rather get off this roller coaster sooner rather than later....

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

No way it's just months.  "May you live in interesting times."  - I'll take boring instead.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment American34
American34's picture

That Mayan date is irrelevant and ridiculous. Your confusing Correlation and Causation.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

No way we get to 2017.

But then again, I've been wrong over and over and over as CBs keep managing to kick this can, so what the hell do I know?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

It always goes on for longer than you think it can.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

You know nothing, chump

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Have they scheduled the Day of Reckoning yet?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

sure, but no announcement on the date to the masses.  its for internal consumption only.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:02 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

In another co-incidence, right after I applied for a job with the SEC all my ads on ZH are for Filipino tranny porn and dating services. 
Why?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

That sounds much more interesting than ads I'm seeing, perhaps I should do the same...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

Greece Defaults in 3 months, that and Iran and watch the fireworks..

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

As long as it comes AFTER November 6, 2012, no one in the World Banker/Filthy Rich Elite/Socialist/Big Media circles cares.

All that matters is delaying ANY signs of economic Distress until then.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Conclusion: if one country goes, it is monetary union that goes.'

'Critically, Mares addresses the seeming complacency towards a Greek exit from the euro area noting that it is no small matter and has dramatic consequences (specifically a la Lehman, the unintended consequences could be catastrophic).'

Analysis? Or scaremongering so that MS doesn't get exposed as part of the global banking conspiracy cabal?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

"scaremongering so that MS doesn't get exposed"

Correct from at least two perspectives.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment jose.six.pack
jose.six.pack's picture

'drachmatic consequences'

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

In terms of federal governence and the sovereignty of it's member states, Europe is now where the United States was in the 1860's.

But on which side of the Civil War is not evident just yet.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:26 | Link to Comment citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

a little like the old Roach Motel - roaches check in but they can't check out. Ah, fetteral systems.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Lincoln proved conclusively that unions are insoluble, once you destroy all opposition to them.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

"To preserve the euro if Greece left would require total federalism in the rest of the area."

Uhh, what do you think is the purpose of this entire EU exercise? Answer: total federalism. I personally doubt Greece will leave, it would require that they form a non-collaborator government, but either way, Greece in or Greece out, this is heading toward a United States of Europe. Has been since 1914.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

No.

That delusion, and rightly so, is over with.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

...did war breakout today? gold and oil sure did...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

either something happened already, or, more likely, insiders are getting the jump on things...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

see my comments below. new era starts now.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

if one country goes the entire western fiat money system goes including the usa after a momentary spike in dollar strength.  isn't it ironic that the country whose history serves as the mythological(pun intended) cradle of western civilization should be the country responsible for the takedown of the mutated organism from it's legacy oozing diseased pus over the world.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

The Eurocrat leadership is betting DESPERATELY on real economic growth, both to prevent civil disorder and to enable them to in effect devalue and pay off their debts.

It won't happen with oil prices over $100. 

"Buy" gold now.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Too bad the "leaders" have no chips to bet with that weren't first given to them by the bankstercrats (as they are the ones profiting from the economic destruction and civil disorder).

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

It is all ok. We live in upside down land. My favorite statistic is contracting at a slower rate than before is actually growth.

Or how about spending more, but not as much as you previously said, is cutting spending.

Or adding debt is actually increasing capital.

Or booking future sales as profit now is under GAAP rules.

Or selling 2% more than the previous month while still being down 20% year over year is a recovery???

Last month my house lost $10k in value but this month is only lost $8k. That means my house actually increased in value by $2k!!??!?

How anyone can actually spout this garbage with a straight face is beyond me. What makes me crazy is people actually buy it!!!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

...did war breakout today? gold and oil sure did...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

 "the decision by US authorities to let Lehman Brothers fail in September 2008, now widely acknowledged to have been a major policy error. "

 

The rescue of Goldman and AIG was the policy error.

But we will pay the price for not clearing the system then and all the QE malinvestment since then within the next couple of years.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

It's all a matter of perspective; letting Lehman Brothers fail was a major error, if your objective was to keep people from paying attention to what is going on, and keep the ponzi going.

Not letting businesses collapse when they fail, and bailing them out forever without taking any action to reduce risks is the major error, if you wanted to allow for a properly functioning market.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:03 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Actually it has gotten much worse. More concentration of risk, more fragility and less transparency.

Fat tails cometh. Conflagration cometh. Atonement cometh.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

It was a POLITICAL ERROR, not a policy one. The error came in not allowing the markets to fall and recover naturally. We'd already be out of this by now. Instead, the pain will be magnified times 100.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

we are heading there : total  federalism; but it will take a lot of pain to accept it... 20 years, if we are lucky. The world will change fast now...and nobody knows how the cookie will crumble. 

Nation states have a thousand year history written in blood; unwinding that is something that takes decades even centuries. 

The European continent is centerpiece now to regress or progress. But the downturn will be ominous first. 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment chockl
chockl's picture

To the Greeks  ....Do Not Pay.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

What are the unintended consequences of avoiding a Lehman moment? Might be worse than those f having a Lehman moment

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

I knew by getting gold to close below 1750 on option expiration Friday that time was near for an explosive move. Today's the day. Holiday weekend +1. The cartel may have printed their last tape. ahhh, free markets again. Happy Gen. Washington's birthday gift to us all!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Until the Crimex is gone the tape-painting will continue.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Why was letting Lehman fail an error? How so? It was an error becuase it brought to light how overleveraged the financial scam was. 

It was an error because it caused the stock market to collapse? It was bad policy for the stock market to go down?

I get it, anything that causes investors to lose money or for a large corporation to fail is bad policy. You can't let Greece fail because it is bad policy for any investor in equities to lose money if bondholders lose money. If you own Apple shares your holdings should not decline in value because of some stupid unimportant country like Greece.

Failure is not an option. Equities should never decline in value, that just ain't kosher.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

It was an Error because Lehman operated out of LONDON and that is where irs global trades were handled - and it had NO CASH to pay bills or to meet counterparties' demands.  It is a little fact of life that Big Dick Swingers in New York might get to be Treasury Secretary, but if they don't understand what goes on in London or Tokyo they tend to look really stupid when it all implodes.

Just how dumb do you have to be to run Goldman Sachs ? Have any of these guys getting to be Capo in this Mafia organisation ever worked outside the Big Sandpit in the USA ?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

There's a project that needs your help, KG-1984 An encryption tool for liberty focused peaceful resistance groups:  https://launchpad.net/kg1984

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

The goal is to keep it together until early 2013. If it spins out of control before that marshal law will be declared, suspending elections. The plan is to knock the legs out from under it all after obama has secured his (their) second term. However in either case, obama's mandate will be secure...Destruction of the United States and the U.S. dollar. The globalist have determined that the time to act is now.

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

marshal law  - try Martial Law, and it is not possible.  You are living History - the milestones towards revolution. You ignore them in learning history to focus on the screscendo - so watch the milestones as they pass because when the turmoil comes you will forget how you got there. In the meantime read Dmitry Orlov "Reinventing Collapse"

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-22/goldman-hedge-fund-group-chief-...

Goldman Hedge Fund Chief Retires.

 

There is something wrong there

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

"Wietschner, 44, joined New York-based Goldman Sachs in 1994 in the firm’s convertible sales group after working for three years at law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges LLP (1127L), according to the memo."

Well, there's part of it.  The only logical reason to hire a lawyer for that position is to circumvent the law.

But I think you were driving at something more?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:10 | Link to Comment Shleprock
Shleprock's picture

Can I get some QE or a bailout, I just want to fill my tank???

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Greece needs a Currency Reform as in Germany in 1949 and France very often. A New Currency at a 10:1 exchange rate backed by the 111 tonnes of Gold in the Central Bank and a total moratorium on External Debt repayment.

That is the only solution. Otherwise Greeks should charter buses and have the population move to Austria and Germany and look for work or build Favellas

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:16 | Link to Comment Olympia
Olympia's picture

Global Debt Crisis

The greatest private fraud of human history.
Who are the great fraudsters who are becoming the murderers of the human kind? How does the economy "illness" threaten Democracy and the freedom of people?

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
---------------------------------
By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:16 | Link to Comment tim73
tim73's picture

Relax, Captain Finlander will not FIRE ONE, UNLESS

They FIRE ONE!  :)

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

The bailout of Greece in 2010 attached itself to any meaningful collateral. Actions since then have been to readjust the tentacles for a better grip around the deflated victim. Now it's time to consider discarding the carcass and move to the next flailing victim. 

Portugal may fall, but Spain and Italy will wise up and pull an Iceland.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

time for arnaud to change his shorts?

 

Herding Greek Cats from Bondage
By: Jim Willie CB

 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment NO1HOME
NO1HOME's picture

GM sound. Reflecting on the waste of america

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkLj3on6oUs&feature=share

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Augustus
Augustus's picture

Print the HELL out of the Euro while it is still worth more than the issuance costs.

The Lehman collapse did cause a great deal of trauma.  It should have been the wake up call to get this financial system straightened out.  Every sentence containing "Lehman collapse was a mistake" implies that someone should insure that there cannot be failures again.  The statements should be made as "be very careful to not be involved in the next Lehman disaster.  No bailout for you either."  That would put it as a continual reminder to evaluate risk of where the funds are parked.  "No more bailouts" could have been the answer eading to the reordering necessary.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:46 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

The break up of the euro would actually be better long term as it would allow countries to recover on their own accord without beholden to a continuing insolvent financial system.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GRCD5

Last I checked on the pricing, it costs $12,481,599.10 to insure against a $ 10,000,000 loss on a default of Greek debt....If I'm doing this right, which I may not be, the premium is greater than the coverage.

What don't I know?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Freegold
Freegold's picture

Greece will not leave the Euro or be thrown out. This debacle is clearly not manageable inside the FIAT-system and Gold will emerge as the "savior" for the EU. Really bad for paperwealth but for holders of the shiny, true wealth.

Gold, go get you some "Aristotle"

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