Time To Fade Byron Wien Again: Here Are Brontosaurus Rex' Predictions For 2012

Tyler Durden's picture

The abysmal hit rate of Byron Wien's predictions over the past several years (ostensibly since the inception of this silly practice nearly three decades ago) has been the source of much laughter on the pages of Zero Hedge: see here and here. It has also been the source of much profit, due to the Blackstone Vice Chairman's uncanny ability to bat just over 0.000 with laser-guided precision and consistency. Below, as reported by Bloomberg, are the latest set of forecasts which are to be faded with impunity as soon as is possible.

  • S&P to rise over 1,400 in 2012
  • Oil Prices at $85/barrell in 2012
    • US Becomes less dependent on Middle East supply in 2012
  • Real growth to exceed 3%, unemployment will be below 8%
  • Democrats take House in 2012, lose Senate
  • Obama to run versus Romney in 2012
  • Greece will have major debt restructuring in 2012
  • The Computer will be the "principal weapon of terrorists" in 2012
    • Temporary bank closures on hacking in 2012
  • Italy to have "voluntary" restructuring in 2012
  • US defense, medicare to be cut significantly in 2012
  • Spain/Ireland will strengthen finances in 2012
  • Scandinavian/Australian currencies will benefit in 2012
  • China, Brazil, India indexes will appreciate 15-20%
  • Gold may rebound to $1,800 during the year
  • The yield on the 10 Year may rise to 4% in 2012

In other words, the usual set of permabullish drivel, mixed in with one or two realistic scenarios. Par for the course for the man whose words have become a joke to everyone but himself.

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Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Contrarian indicator, bitchez!

Don Birnam's picture

One of the most repulsive, repellent, and unctuous characters Wall Street has produced in recent memory.

whatsinaname's picture

Gold "may" rise ?

Yield "may" rise ?

The rest are all WILL !

mayhem_korner's picture



...and if the 10-yr yield rises to 4%, you can bet that gold won't be $1,800/oz.

StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, would it be too farfetched to add two more zeroes to that prediction? :>D

RealFinney's picture

Remember, unlike the US Dollar, gold isn't backed by anything.

CPL's picture

Somewhere an old age home is missing a resident...if the staff only knew enough to seek the missing bodies on CNBC.

Pool Shark's picture



Q: What do Barton Biggs and Byron Wien have in common?

A: Depends...


Cara's picture

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GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Scandinavian/Australian currencies will benefit in 2012'

Australia has currencie(s)? Poorly worded nonsense.

'The Computer will be the "principal weapon of terrorists" in 2012

Temporary bank closures on hacking in 2012'

Is that the machine used to view pornography? And thank goodness they'll be 'temporary' because the word 'closures' had me worried for sec. 

Cdad's picture

No doubt...this guy is a complete tool...which is why he enjoys the constant attention of the BlowHorn [CNBC].  

Aaaaahhhh.  The sounds of silence in Cdad's bunker.

francis_sawyer's picture

So what do we glean from all of this?...

OK... The best I could make out of it is that when the BANK HOLIDAYS are declared, it'll be blamed on computer HACKERS...


American34's picture

From the American who brought you the 8 Rules of U.S. Government Spending now comes....


1. The Status Quo must be maintained.


3. If a country stops printing, doesn't borrow, or decreses spending the fight is over.

4. Only two wars at a time please.

5. ANY "Official Data" can be manipulated.

6. NO Public Privacy, NO problem.

7. Governments can spend as much as they want to.

8. If your economy is stalling, you have to print money.

Hephasteus's picture

Predications of a dangling participle?

mayhem_korner's picture



I put the under/over on the number that happen at 3.

Coke and Hookers's picture

"unemployment will be below 8%"

So it's gonna go down from the current 24% to 8% in no time flat? :-)

mayhem_korner's picture



Yes, because real GDP is going to go up 3% from it's current minus 2.5%.

SilverRhino's picture

A conscript levy / draft for World War III can do that amazingly enough.

hugovanderbubble's picture

France downgraded

Spain downgraded

Italy downgraded

Dont wait till 5th january

punxsutawney phil's picture

Please do not give that asshole the benefit of a forum on this site.  Discretion please.


American34's picture

You stole my image! This is WAR!

punxsutawney phil's picture

technically I had it first...what are the odds

American34's picture

If you move any Aircraft Carriers near my Praire Dog town I will bury you!

hugovanderbubble's picture

War just for a stolen image? lol imaging if one country attacks with currencies and CDS another one?...Nuclear Blast attack¡

France tic  tac....

Clifhanger's picture

Would love to see this guy trying to defend his predictions on a 1 on 1 debate w/ Kyle Bass..

LeBalance's picture

the debate of the flounder versus the bass?

azzhatter's picture

Still alive? I figured Byron Weenie was long ago tits up

UP Forester's picture

But his Magic 8-BallTM is still broken....

Rainman's picture

A 10 year yield at 4% blows up all the ponzis. He could have stopped right there.

Sancho Ponzi's picture

You got that right, Rainman.  In 1999 the Japanese 10 year was yielding 1%. Fast forward 13 years and it's still trading at 1%. That's the beauty and the curse of a country being a true fiat currency issuer; you can create any amount of money at any time by clicking a few keys. Of course money creation isn't capital creation, but that's not as important to Bennie and Timmay as putting off the inevitable for a few more days, weeks, months or years. 


Hephasteus's picture

It will be a great depression play.

4 percent 10 year yield one day. Back down the next. LULZ.

TooRichtoCare's picture

I thought Byron Wein had an annual "Surprises for the year`" list...where they weren't so much predictions as they were low probability events that would surprise people if they happened?  No?  

Cos, yeah...if they were bone fide predictions, then his track record stinks!

blu's picture

These are great predictions! Just need help from a qualified editor:


  • S&P to rise over 1,400 measured in inflated fiat in 2012
  • Oil Prices onshore in Iran at $85/barrell in 2012
    • US Becomes less dependent on Middle East supply due to Arab embargoes in 2012
  • Real growth in money supply to exceed 3%, unemployment at 20% participation will be below 8%
  • Democrats take your House on foreclosure in 2012, lose Senate as a result
  • Obama to run in a breast cancer marathon versus Romney in 2012
  • Greece will once again pretend to have major debt restructuring in 2012
  • The HFT Computer will again be the "principal weapon of bankster terrorists" in 2012
    • Temporary bank closures on false flag hacking in 2012
  • Italy to have "voluntary" restructuring after Germany invades in 2012
  • US defense, medicare not to be cut significantly in 2012 and anyone even mentioning the possibility will end up in Gitmo
  • Spain/Ireland will strengthen football team finances in 2012
  • Scandinavian/Australian currencies will benefit from massive French deflation in 2012
  • China, Brazil, India indexes will still not appreciate having their heads caved in 15-20%
  • Gold may rebound to $1,800 during the year on it's way to $3,000
  • The yield on the 10 Year may rise to 4% above Italian 10 year yields in 2012

Glad I could help.


hugovanderbubble's picture

Italian and Spanish Football teams are all in default

Including Real Madrid and Barcelona

Players salaries the most freaking bubble in whole history...


SPORTS are overvalued.


candyman's picture

Thanks for getting the redactive free version. It makes more sense now.

asteroids's picture

The only thing I would add that precedes everything is "and then a miracle happens, after which...."

chinaguy's picture

How TF do you get:

"The yield on the 10 Year may rise to 4% in 2012"


"Real growth to exceed 3%, unemployment will be below 8%"



AmCockerSpaniel's picture

So what do you think will happen to unemployment when real war starts in 2012?

StychoKiller's picture

Blasted unicorns!  They keep poopin' skittles all over my yard, too! :>D

SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Obviously BW knows you only get on Sqwauk Talk and Kudlow if you are Bullish/positive... not if your right.  Clearly BW's ego/vanity more important than the truth

jcaz's picture

Wow- bold calls on Greek and Italian debt....  DUH

hugovanderbubble's picture

Greece will never payback any principal or interests in Euro, will be in drachmas.


Italy is going to be toasted with 10yrs bond over 9%

my puppy for prez's picture

f you support Ron Paul, PLEASE go to drudgereport.com and vote in their IN HOUSE poll.  It's right at the top and DOES NOT link you or spam you.  I just voted and after it just shows the results.


gckings19's picture

his predictions make no sense.....oil goes to 85 but the emerging mkt economies of china, india and brazil boom....these are ridiculous.  oil at 85 and brics booming are opposite trades...he's trying to game his predictions so that some come true....typical WS hack bankster...wants their cake and to eat it too.

Scalaris's picture

Scandinavian/Australian currencies will benefit in 2012

Yes - If China bans any broadcasting regarding its domino-like bursting housing project bubbles, province by province.

Gotta keep that growth machine alive, cause if that goes out our only hope will be Krugman's aliens.