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Time To Fill The Euro-Gap?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As the EUR trades at its lows of the day (having retraced over 60% of the Euro-Summit rally, we wonder how long before the broad European equity markets will take to fill the gap from that wondrous liquidating day. Equities are underperforming credit so far this morning but it is very clear that hedgers/shorts are back in lower cost credit positions as European sovereigns leak wider in yield (cash and CDS). We also note that EFSF is underperforming Bunds (by around 7bps so far this morning) making us wait for the Barroso-Van-Rompuy 'We're gonna need a bigger boat' speech.

The Bloomberg 500 Index perilously close to starting the EFSF gap fill. The EFSF trades 127bps cheap to Bunds, a seemingly critical level given the chart below, and based on Moody's comments overnight on the Euro-Summit's negative implications for AAA-rated European nations, we are hardly surprised. Spain and Italy are also seeing their bonds leak significantly higher in yields this morning - hardly reassuring for the uber-solution that was in place last week.

The EUR itself, perhaps a little shell-shocked at Azumi's revenge last night, has now retraced 61.8% of the huge swing higher from last week.

And while equities are underperforming credit markets (as evident in the chart below), it is very clear that the cheaper (lower cost/carry) hedges are underperforming the higher-beta (expensive carry) positions for now as last week's nerve-jangling rip-fest is still ripe in the minds of many credit traders.

Interestingly, given the massive disconnect between EURJPY (and other JPY crosses) last night and a correlation-driven expectation for where ES would trade, the retracement in JPY has dragged the 'model' price much more in line with the lower (and falling) ES...it seems risk-off (as we discussed last night) is driving not being-driven.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:10 | 1828093 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Driving the car off the cliff sounds about right.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:37 | 1828169 eureka
eureka's picture

Let's say a country wanted to prevent speculators from raiding its currency - would it be technically possible - i.e. to make a currency non-tradeable?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:12 | 1828094 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but this will still require help from the big boys.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:22 | 1828130 tuco13
tuco13's picture

if risk off $usd (/DX) > 76.00...200ma

otherwise another BS move to rattle eurotards

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:26 | 1828144 Flounder
Flounder's picture

My hat is off to anyone who can successfully trade these markets.

Italy 10 yr yld goes from a high of 6.22 on 8/4 and then to 4.86 on 8/18 and now back to 6.15.

DAX loses 30% May to Sept then gains 20% in a month rising 6% last Thurs only to be down 2% today.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 09:53 | 1828206 Minoan
Minoan's picture

The eur/rub jumped from 41.50 to 42.20 "unexpectedly".CBR intervention?

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