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"This Time It's Different?" - David Rosenberg Explains The Melt Up And The Latent Risks

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The market is ripping. That much is obvious. What some may have forgotten however, is that it ripped in the beginning of 2011... and in the beginning of 2010: in other words, what we are getting is not just deja vu (all on the back of massive central bank intervention time after time), but double deja vu. The end results, however, by year end in both those cases was less than spectacular. In fact, in an attempt to convince readers that this time it is different, Reuters came out yesterday with an article titled, you guessed it, "This Time It's Different" which contains the following verbiage: "bursts of optimism have sown false hope before... Today there is a cautious hope that perhaps this time it's different." (this article was penned by the inhouse spin master, Stella Dawson, who had a rather prominent appearance here.) So the trillions in excess electronic liquidity provided by everyone but the Fed (constrained in an election year) is different than the liquidity provided by the Fed? Got it. Of course, there are those who will bite, and buy the propaganda, and stocks. For everyone else, here is a rundown from David Rosenberg explaining why stocks continue to move near-vertically higher, and what the latent risks continue to be.

UP, UP AND AWAY!

It has been quite a move up in the U.S. equity markets. The S&P 500 just completed its fifth straight week of gains, the longest streak of the year. From the closing low of last October 3rd, the index has rallied a breathtaking 28%. So far in 2012, the Dow is up 8%, the S&P 500 is up 12% and the Nasdaq is up 17%. Breathtaking to say the least.

What accounts for all this optimism:

  • The European LTRO program has obliterated financial tail risks in the region.
  • The successful second bailout of Greece.
  • Chinese inflation down to 3.2% has fuelled hopes of monetary ease.
  • Perceptions that that the U.S. economy is reaccelerating — all the Fed had to do was change "modest" to "moderate" (plus the ECRI leading index has improved to a seven-month high).
  • Tentative signs that the secular headwinds are subsiding — housing, credit, employment, local government fiscal restraint.
  • Oil prices stabilizing with a calm emerging with respect to Iran.
  • Technically, the market is making higher highs and higher lows — a confirmed uptrend.
  • Global earnings estimates are no longer going down.
  • Financial conditions are easing with corporate bond spreads narrowing sharply.
  • The success evident in the Fed's latest banking sector stress tests — bank
  • stocks advanced 9% last week.
  • The snapback after the early-March triple-digit decline in the Dow — the first of the year has emboldened the 'buy the dip' psychology.

What are the risks?

That we wake up some time in the second quarter and discover that the economy may well have contracted if not for the extremely warm weather we had in the opening months of the year, which provided a huge, if not unprecedented, skew to the data (see Weather Alert: Why the Sun Could Be Bad for Risky Assets on page 14 of the weekend FT).

Remember —January and February were both 5 degrees warmer than usual. For months usually beset by winter weather, the seasonal factors attempt to correct for this by boosting the raw data, which at that time of year are about the lowest given that many folks are snowbound. If not for the seasonal adjustment process, we would only be able to compare the data on a year-to-year basis because there is no apples-to-apples comparison between economic activity in January and what you would typically see in May. So in January and February in particular, the raw nonseasonally adjusted basis get a "bell curve" like we would in school in a tough mid-term exam. The problem this time is that January and February were downright balmy. This wreaked havoc on all the data, especially housing, employment and spending.

We estimate that over 40% of the job gains were weather-related, taking both months into account. We also know that productivity is contracting and 100% of the time in the past decade, companies responded by curbing their hiring. So taking the weather effect into account and the reversal this will have in coming months with respect to the data impact, combined with the likely cooling-off in hiring plans already evident in many surveys, and we could well see the nonfarm payroll numbers get cut in half and come in closer to 100k than 200k as we move into the spring and summer months.

This is not a disaster story at all, but recall that it was this sort of sluggish backdrop that brought at least a temporary end to the equity market rally last year and forced the Fed into more intervention in support of the bond market. Don't write off QE3 just yet. On top of all that, we do expect to see the trade deficit continue to widen as the European recession and Asian slowdown hit the U.S. shores, and contraction in net exports is going to very likely emerge as a big headwind for the GDP data in the next few quarters. In fact, it is only now starting.

And by the time it subsides later this year, households and businesses will be preparing for next year's massive tax grab. If logic prevails, this preparation is probably going to include a move to boost savings and raise liquidity (ostensibly at the expense of spending growth — expect the retailers to head into the 2012 holiday season lean and mean).

The weather also had a direct impact on spending by releasing more than $30 billion in recent months in terms of household cash flow from a radically lower utility bill. Absent that de facto tax cut', and retail sales would have stagnated over the past three months as opposed to rising at what appears to be a healthy 8% annual rate. This will subside now and we have not yet seen the full brunt of $4 gasoline either — many a commentator has stated that the consumer sector is less vulnerable now and there is less of a "shock factor" this time around. We shall see about that.

As it stands, nominal spending at the pumps is at its lowest level since last June — we have not seen the draining impact on household cash flows yet. But we did see the impact on University of Michigan consumer sentiment, which surprised to the downside in a month that saw the Nasdaq head to 12-year highs and employment rip by more than 200k — going from 75.3 on sentiment to 74.3 is largely explained from the rise in gasoline prices.

The IBD/TIPP economic optimism index also slumped to 47.5 in March from the one-year high of 49.4 in February. The components of the recently released March survey data from NY Fed Empire and Philly Fed looked on the soft side, especially order books and production plans. This has also shown up in a recent reversal in President Obama's approval ratings — so the gasoline impact, with a lag, is only now starting to rear its ugly head.

Keep in mind that even with WTI consolidating, the prices that consumers pay at the pump are on a steady march higher — up 31 cents in the past month to an average of $3.82 a gallon (nationwide) — but already nearly one-third of Americans are paying $4 or higher. What does this then do to the GDP price deflator and hence to real growth — well, just have a look and see what happened in the first quarter of 2011. It's called stall speed, not escape velocity.

It is unclear just how stable things are in Europe. The ECB has papered over the problems for now but has jeopardized the sanctity of its balance sheet at the same time. The U.K. is seemingly on the precipice of losing its AAA rating status. Then we have Asia. India in a full-blown economic downturn and its banking system is in disarray. And the Chinese economy is now slowing down at a pace we have not seen since the 2009 hard landing. As the U.S. market has been surging, the MSCI China index sagged 2.7% in March —not a constructive signpost for the commodity complex. While this has caused the TSX index to lag the S&P 500, the Canadian dollar has managed to stay above par, in part because the rate-hike that is now being priced into the local bond market (Canadian 2-year note yields now offer a hefty 90 basis point premium to the U.S. comparable).

Back to China for a minute — the country's A shares are down 3.3% in the past month while the H shares have gained 18%. The Chinese stock market now trades at a 9.9x forward multiple, versus a 15-year average of 12x. So the market there is well valued and the A shares (those listed in China; the H shares trade in Hong Kong) may well be poised to play some catch-up here. Something we have noticed and are definitely keying on.

As for the overall market, our CIO, Bill Webb, likes what he sees in the form of the lingering wide gap between the prevailing return on capital and the cost of capital. Screening for GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) and yield remains in vogue. While we are involved in those slices of the market, the major averages have managed to rally to levels above the year-end targets the consensus established at the start of 2012 (of 1,355 on the S&P 500), as was the case this time last year. The S&P 500 has actually risen as much in 2012 so far as it did at this stage in 1998 and when you consider how benevolent 1998 was in terms of fiscal, monetary and economic stability just three years after the advent of the Internet, how can anyone really compare the two years?

What we are seeing unfold really is a liquidity-induced rally that is built on a lot of hope. Neither were required in 1998 — the Fed kept a neutral policy in place for most of that year and there was no need for hope; the growth in the economy was organic and self-sustaining without unprecedented government assistance. Even then, we had a near-20% correction that summer. Nothing moves in a straight line indefinitely and while Bill and the investment team have been tactically bullish for most of this year, we are feeling the need to dial back the risk somewhat near-term given the high levels of complacency and the fact that valuation is less compelling than it was four-six months ago.

For example, the FT cites research showing that the S&P 500 is now two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, which is far beyond the norm of even an overbought market and in the past this has proven to be a pretty good 'chill for now indicator. Breadth has also deteriorated of late as the market has scaled new highs, which is often a technical sign that an intermediate top is at hand.

In the name of being 'tactical' and 'nimble', which is critical in today's rapid-fire volatile backdrop, getting a little more defensive here is not a bad idea at all. We also remain long-term bulls on gold and commodities, but with the U.S. dollar breaking out and the Chinese data coming in softer than expected for the most part, we have taken on a less ebullient posture for the time being and plan to get more involved at better pricing levels once this corrective phase runs its course. The mining stocks have broken below key support levels here and over the near-term, the chart points are to be respected.

Also keep an eye on the bond market, which has become a bit unglued in recent weeks. Of course, this happens at least four times a year so hiccups like this are really par for the course. And as usual, we are hearing once again how we should all be prepared for the end of the secular bull market in Treasuries. These Wall Street reports come out at least once per year, the latest coming from UBS strategists. When will these people ever learn? In any event, it has been a rocky road as the 10-year note yield spiked 27 basis points last week to a five-month high of 2.3%. This is all part of the global risk-on trade because German bunds sold off just as much, and other assets that tend to do better in risk-off environments, such as gold, also suffered setbacks (the yellow metal lost S50/oz over the week).

Bond yields are not yet at a level to upset the equity market apple cart, especially with the yield on the banks improving so much in one fell swoop. But if we approach 3% on the 10-year note then we could start to see the stock market pay some attention — it's not so much the level, as the change, and at a time when gasoline prices start to really pinch the consumer (driving season is right around the corner), rising borrowing costs are not going to provide a very constructive backdrop.

 


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Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

Summer 2012: Iran war, crash in the markets and financial institutions

 

five devastating storms will mark the summer of 2012 and thus accelerate the process of world geopolitical swing:

  • . US relapse into recession against the background of European stagnation and BRICS slowdown
  • . dead end for the central banks and interest rate increases
  • . storm on the foreign exchange and Western sovereign debt markets
  • . Iran, the war « too far »
  • new crash in the markets and financial institutions.

 

Full Analysis:

 

http://www.webcompact.net/index.php/news/21800-summer-2012-iran-war-crash-in-the-markets-and-financial-institutions

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment It was not me
It was not me's picture

Where do you get your information?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

He is a bit further down the rabbit hole than most, but we are definitely all not far behind him.  Now pass the hopium.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

The end is delayed.

Debt, deleveraging, money printing...it has only just begun.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment bigun
bigun's picture

the end will always be delayed as long as we have a broken capatlist system

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

This time it's different. Promise.

This time it's different. Promise.

This time it's different. Promise.

This time it's different. Promise.

This time it's different. Promise.

This time it's different. Promise.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Timing IS everything, after all.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Well, those 5 points of rumination are all on the table.  Just a mater of the timing, whether now or later (as in much, how far can the can really be kicked) and independently vs. collectively.
Maybe we are after all in a long tail section of a leptokurtic curve wherein we just imagine that we're somewhere near the mean/center.  But instead, all of the outcomes, good, bad and indifferent are all essentially just a matter of degree of doom for the ensuing period.
Kind of a stasis of bad shit, worse shit or fucking terrible shit.
Why not?
It (leptokurtotic curves) actually well profile historical market experiences over extended time frames and there are definitely eras of the good, bad and fugly.
And only God knows just how really fucked up things are, for if we were to cast our collective minds back 10, 7, 5 and even 3 years, and assume the worst, the outcomes as to criminality, fraud, lack of transparency, abridgement of the rules of law, etc., etc., etc. have been worse than anyone (on average) believed.
And it seems as almost every day, something dastardly bad that has been held secret has been shouted from the rooftops. 
Biblical shits a happening, so to speak.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

Don't get sucked in by those clowns at LEAP/GEAB. They were predicting the collapse of the US treasury market for summer of 2011. "Euroland is increasingly asserting itself as a sustainable structure" pure propaganda, the guys writing that crap probably have their offices next to Barroso's and Rompuys.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

A. Provided that the standing government has any concern that they will not be able to be easily rigged, the economy will continue to be pumped because it is an election year... the elitists play from the same book all the time. They lack creativity and must use history as their guide for everything... and so the election will be rigged first by pumping the market, second by creating geopolitical tension that will freeze the masses into accepting no change (Iran) and the third by vote fraud (if necessary ... as was done with GWB in FL).

B. Once the election is off the table then they are free to get down to the real action which seems to be: 1) Eliminating the US Republic (it is my guess that the US will not have another election after 2012) 2) Open creation of the global slave state 3) Global population reduction 4) Scooping up or destroying the remaining countries/states that are not part of the global elitist/satanic/banking empire so that world domination is assured ... to what ultimate purpose one might ask... in other words "then what, Einstein?"

C. The global banking cartel has the ability to crash markets and collect every asset in the western world at any time they want. Maybe they do not have that power in the Islamic and undeveloped world. They have the legal standing (given to them by themselves) to collect on all debts and default on all payments with no consequences. The fact that they have not done so yet, simply means that they are not quite ready. Debt slavery is not enough for them because there are too many people who have been smart enough to exist in the system without paying them homage as their lord and master ... but that will change if they have their way.

Using people, who work in fear of them, they have the power to do almost anything they want at any time. There can be no doubt that THEY are malevolent (evil). The only thing standing in their way is the free will of the people (people can choose, re-choose, re-re-choose because they have free will). If people decide that they want to serve good or serve a benevolent creator instead of serving them, then they are powerless. There can be no killing, no mass murder, no "legalized theft, fraud, slavery and imprisonment. Unfortunately not enough people have woken up to the fact that they have been corrupted by a malevolent enslaving force ... and because they are afraid or have been deluded into into believing that they have no chaoice, have given up their "free will" to do what they know inside themselves is right and good. 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

After Rosie we are just seconds away from Bob "The Bear" Janjuah following up on his bear prognostications. 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment It was not me
It was not me's picture

I bet there will never be a month when stocks fall. It's all up from now. BTFD.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"This Time It's Different" is different this time. 

iPromise!

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment tickhound
tickhound's picture

iVolume showing 'conviction'

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just hoping we see a 'conviction' somewhere, anywhere, for Gods sake.

But (of course) in order for the iPonzi to continue there must be no stopping the iFeeding Frenzy, something a trip to the docket (never mind prison) might throw cold water on.

iCarry On.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment tickhound
tickhound's picture

Awaiting the iBAC app so banking is 'everywhere I need it to be'

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Just wait till the times alls you can buy is an iFuckingVolt.

And the Manditory Voluntary iBanker Appreciation Week

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment tickhound
tickhound's picture

iMarketshare is certainly no laughing matter.

iConsolidation going into overdrive. 

BTW, knuk, could you send me an ibuzz and pay me back that $20 you owe me?  I downloaded the app.  Actually they sent it directly to my iphone, I didn't even have to ask.

It'll be a $20.12 total.  .04 goes to philanthropy. 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:59 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

"It depends on how you define 'different', this time."

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This time "different" is iDifferent.

Nuff said.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

iHear you in quadraphonic glory.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

poor rosie, bears are extinct in the world of central planning...........

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:42 | Link to Comment kengland
kengland's picture

Why they ignore this simple fact is beyond me. How about the never ending treasury bubble? Road is littered with bear bodies there

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Let's not confuse extinction with hibernation...

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Bears are ignored, not extinct. And we all know what happens when a hungry bear gets too close without warning..

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Respectfully, Wrong.

Unless they "knew" the truth, then there would Not Be The Continual Propaganda Effort.
To wit.... turn on your telly and observe the guide graphic.  Stuff like the NatGeo or History Channel having police action specials and border patrol anthologies.  Look for News ... is none.  Aside from that its materialstic shit to fill the holes in people's souls... shopping, Brazilian butts, Viagria Bigger is Fucking Awesome....  Or tow truck companies idiot brother's employee's error reports.
Jesus.

It's a 24/7/365 media manipulation way the fuck past PR, transcending Perceptions Management well into formal control and Propaganda.

Oh, they know well.  All too well.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment kengland
kengland's picture

Rosenberg is a moron. What does setiment have to do with anything when no one is buying stocks? This is a central bank fueled movement and has been now for three years. That's how long he's been wrong. He'll continue to be wrong as well.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Its different alright. Qcom isnt $750/share. Otherwise, Rally on. 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Wait till twist ends.  The period between that and QE3 (which may not be immediately after unlike the last 2 years) should be interesting. Just like last year with QE2 ending.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

The weather? Come on, you can do better than that.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

People think that "it is the weather of earth" ... but how many people have actually looked up into the sky and observed the planets of our solar system? By my recollection, in the past in the Chicago area where I live and the artificial light makes only the brightest stars visible, the planets always faded into the background. This year Venus, Jupitor and Mars (at least those 3) are standing out so bright in the night sky that they draw one's attention and it is hard not to think "dang, I don't remember them being that bright". It looks as if our entire solar system is being flooded with energy that is causing global warming on EVERY PLANET. And maybe the flooding of our skies with BaSO4 makes it less noticable here (or more, who knows the real story)

We shall see what we shall see ... but my guess is that 30 years ago (or so) the elitist families knew that we would be undergoing an energy peak here on earth and they decided that they could use it to distract attention from the "real thing" and so toady family shills such as Al Gore were tasked with finding the way to best use the increase in solar energy transference to their advantage.

If global warming is Obama's best friend, it is not because of normal interaction between the temperature and the economy (stupid). It would be because of the planned use of higher energy output to the purposes of those who knew it would happen.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

In 1999 I remember the market going up every single day. No reason. It made no sense. The QQQs made all time highs. And then, it rolled over. The QQQs have yet to recover.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

yes, but for now, the "i"s have it

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Binko
Binko's picture

Funny how everything is now about sentiment and markets and interest rates and government programs. But nothing is about real sales of actual products or real physical growth or expansion. Says it all, really. It's a big game where the organizers and cheerleaders get very very rich as long as reality can be kept isolated from the game world.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Spacemoose
Spacemoose's picture

so true, i repeat myself but ..

in the long run (and absent war or theft), the value of the goods and services which country "X" can distribute to its citizens, must be equal to the value of the goods and services which the citizens of country "X" produce (a sentiment which, your post excepted, is rarely articulated on ZH. is it too obvious to be stated?).

thus, for most of us here in the real world trenches, what really matters is not, per se, bond sales, interest rates or deficits, but rather, the impact those sales, rates and deficits have on productivity and on the allocation of the yields of that productivity.

and i'm sorry, but the government and (most of) FIRE produce nada so we're already in a bigger hole than the numbers would imply.

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

  the government and (most of) FIRE produce nada so we're already in a bigger hole than the numbers would imply.

It's kinda predictable, right?

Let's see...industrial profits begin to decline in the '70s with the losers of WWII rebuilt and their capacity coming fully online.  Oil availability gets tweaked hard in the early '70s just as our early industrial superpowers are starting to see meaningful competition, and winding down Vietnam eliminates a safety valve for overcapacity. 

There's a realization that corporations are primarily concerned with moving money around, and that physical inputs and outputs should be viewed as just another drag on profit.  The idea that *everyone* needs to be in the stock market is sold very effectively and FIRE captures a greater share of money flows while discouraging investment in US physical development and maintenance.

Eventually the financial components of domestic industry overwhelm the significance of the physical inputs/outputs, and fragility of transport/communications logistics starts threatening the stablity of money flows.  Declining reliability in finances is very very bad for business.

The expansion of the FIRE sector produces the largest aggregates of currency amongst financial giants, which then have the resources to demand political concessions from the politicians whose campaigns they fund.  (That's all of them.)  The political concessions provide additional reward and incentive to already over-supplied markets, and the disease is treated like the cure.

Finally some kind of distinction between "capital" and "currency" starts coming into focus.  The "salvage value" of the failing dominant industry goes negative and the productive industries are not capable of sustaining the money flows (being constrained by real-world factors--physical inputs/outputs).

We end up with the flows of real goods and services being interrupted by changes in the supply of currency, despite no underlying physical failure.  The financiers are no use anymore.  The entire "problem" of physical inputs/outputs has been eliminated from the equations--it's just a variable drag on profits.

Trenches?  Are they supposed to be like dips?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Much ado about nothing! Wait patiently toget more PHYZZZ, that's actually ALL i care about!

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Physicist
Physicist's picture

Do all economists do the same thing over and over expecting different results, or is it just Rosie?  His mind would work better if he were not so fat (headed).

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Does anyone else get the feeling that the Rosy glow put on things by this author seem to depend on totalitarian control across the board?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I love it!

Since Summer of 2009, here's what I've been *promised* as a "bear" at various levels on the S&P:

800 - Just one more rally, then...

911 - Just one more rally, then...

1040 - Just one more rally, then...

1150 - Just one more rally, then...

1220 - Just one more rally, then...

1340 - Just one more rally, then...

1400 - Just one more rally, then...

What will I hear at 1577?

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Price those rallies against gold and tell me where you're at. Or better yet against the purchasing power of your dollar.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Only market geeks and nerds (such as your's truly) care about stuff such as that.

Everybody else sees one thing - continuous green in the equity markets.

Perception is reality, and both can be manipulated.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Hmmm...the buy and hold bulls have been lied to even more so - the promise of wealth and certainly to "keep ahead of inflation", and yet the US stock markets are DOWN from Dec. 1, 1999 til THIS VERY DAY.  Wonder where the buy and hold gold bulls are since that time??

S&P500 chart Compare max chart with

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html

At least the bears have math, reality and sometimes even integrity on their side - what do the bulls have - lies, distortions, crimes (few convictions) and humongous bankers' bonuses.  Perhaps that's enough for them.  But not for me.

 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hmmmm it seems Apple may be letting go of their cah too soon. There may be a recall on the way.

http://www.bgr.com/2012/03/19/reports-claim-new-ipad-is-too-hot-to-handle/

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

He got short too soon again.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

One more time.  Stocks will drop when WTI begins to drop.  Which comes first--they will come at about the same time.

If at some point DOW is up 20% YTD and oil 5%, then I am wrong.  I don't think I'll be wrong.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Monoki
Monoki's picture

Just take note that if you have listened to uberbear "Anom" at ZH you would have missed a three-year rally.

 

Ultimately, we'll discover exactly why this guy goes by an alias 'Tyler Durden' and not his real name.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Goldtoothchimp09
Goldtoothchimp09's picture

Why does ZH continue to follow Rosenberg?!  He's been wrong everytime for 3+ years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

for some reason (probably due to tyler's 'packaging') stellaSawson piqued my interest, not entirely unlibidinally, for some reason (possibly tyler knows she's hot?  L0L) 

here's stella!!!  i am already on zH record that tReuters is the MSM of the NW0 NG0/UN nannies;  when i have concern about what is happening in togo, for example, or why, and who is involved, (who cares?) i can resaerch stuff pretty well there;  when TSHTF somewhere, tReuters will know who's goin where, with what, and why, and then letcha know how things are going once they get there, what the UN and its infinite agencies are "up to" and so on.  many NG0s are "charities" but even the biggest "charitable ops" have goobermint funding coning in;  b/c of the goobermint funding aspects of NG0s they are about as "politically independent" as university professors spouting "economics" and "law" or "careersInJustice"

so stella looks like leadership material, and i would love to recruit her and turn her, personally, so after checking her gyno records and sexual history, let's try to get a sense for her "editorial slant" at this point, or as tyler sez:  agenda, and: it's NW0 nannyism, i tell ya! 

tyler (paste) So the trillions in excess electronic liquidity provided by everyone but the Fed (constrained in an election year) is different than the liquidity provided by the Fed? Got it.

here's that fungibility thing. again.   earlier, on another string, i was reading a guy i pay attention to saying gold price is pretty much entirely dependent on FED printing, so i hope he considers this idea, too:  [fiat money = debt] is true no matter what language the green or red or blue stamps tell you they are worth 1 or 1,000 debt-units of some kind in, or how the electronic digits are "currency-shaped", at least for now

fiat is fiat and like god said to noah:  it is gonna rain and rain:  prepare for the flood, BiChez! 

all the accountants' accounting and reporters' reporting will be 100% honest, as usual, too, regarding monetary precipitation, the centralBansters' answer to the biblical concept of "manna", at least in certain respects, there, rabbi;  maybe anti-manna would be better in the Hewbrew, in that you eat one, the other eats you...  "...and when he came down, thePeople were worshipping a paper calf..."  doesn't have quite the same ooomph, does it?  or do i need further re-conditoning, here?   due to 'popular opinion polls', the paper calf was IN!

so where is sean's diapson piece about this great race-horse: fungi-cide   ?  

"the market is ripping" (rosie): and china's stock can "catch up" in valuation, here

but slewienomics indicate this is a classic tantricTM liquidity ooze and the blue guy isn't gonna have a happy ending till the ass-fuking begins;  the satyr playing the sitar will front-run the tail ending of the piece by a subtle change in the eternal flourish as the drums' boom builds and maybe just a tad more cowbell, too...

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

^(O_O)^


 

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Slewie, I think that you typed that with your left hand, on the keyboard, while your right hand was somewhere under the keyboard.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 18:29 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

How about that Russell 2000 chart?

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 02:59 | Link to Comment zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Faber is seldom wrong, unlike Rosie...and Faber is looking for a big down move soon.

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