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This Time Next US Presidential Campaign: $24.1 Trillion In Debt, 138.9% Debt/GDP
While Obama may or may not be on the way to winning his reelection, courtesy of a GOP field that is, to say the least, limited, and where the only worthy candidate is more ostracized by the right than even anyone on the left, the bottom line is that whoever wins the presidency, it will matter precisely didley squat. As the US debt clock shows, fast forwarding 4 years, or to February 2016, when the next presidential race will be in its final stretch, America will have $24.1 trillion in debt, about $9 trillion more than it does, now on $17.4 trillion in GDP, for a gross debt to GDP ratio of 138.9% (and Apple's $1 trillion market cap will account for 150% of the Nasdaq... just as IBM is 125% of the DJIA). Needless to say, it will be long past game over at that point confirming that the current presidential race, with its exciting tangential detours into female fertility, moon bases, LBO IRR maximization courtesy of cost-cutting, is completely and utterly meaningless. Also, keep in mind, "at current rates" for an endspiel that has now entered the exponential phase in virtually every category, is to say the least, optimistic. Yes, interest rates may be negative in 2016, but that means that the liquidity trap endgame has not only begun, but is well on its way to ending, and mercifully putting an end to this whole Keynesian "sustainability" charade. Remember: Japan's debt-deflation lasted for 30 years only thanks to new pockets of incremental global leverage and inflation: China and the PIIGS. This time, absent the levering of the entire continent of Africa, there is noone who can take the releverage baton and run. Which means the only "buyers" will be the central banks. At least back in the day, Weimar just one nation. This time, it will be the "Weimar World."
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Anyone investing in Xerox or Lexmark for record profits from now till then by the amount of toners they will sell to the US Govt to print all of this money? Souns like a good idea to me.
i believe the calcs for this estimated debt/gdp ratio to be conservative; we are not accounting for inflation (oil/food/etc), market crashes, ZIRP fuckery rejiggered and failed QE, etc. etc. etc.
Yeah really... This is optimistic to say the least.
There will be 314 million Americans in 2016, approximately.
There will be 152 million employed Americans (give or take 5%).
There will be 75 million Americans who pay net taxes of +1 USD or more.
If David M. Walker is correct (and he's the former Chief Accountant of the U.S.) the real debt will be 79 trillion USD, as it's just under 60 trillion USD now.
If Larry Kotliloff is correct (former economic advisor to Reagan) the real debt will be 276 trillion USD, as it's just over 200 trillion USD now (1.38 times 200 trillion = 276 trillion USD).
So, let's use Walker's more conservative figure as to what the true national debt will be, or 79 trillion USD, based on 1.38 times 58 trillion:
79 trillion USD divided by 314 million Americans = $251,192.357 USD per American (newborns to centurians).
But, only 75 million Americans will be employed and pay net tax, so this is the relevant number.
79 trillion divided by 75 million American workers who paying net taxes = $1,053,333.33 USD per American Taxpayer
So, in 2016, the national debt might be manageable if US GDP grows 50% each year in each of the next consecutive 4 years (i.e. US GDP would = 110 trillion USD by 2016).
2012 US GDP would = 22 trillion USD
2013 US GDP would = 33 trillion USD
2014 US GDP would = 49 trillion USD
2015 US GDP would = 73.5 trillion USD
2016 US GDP would = 110 trillion USD
I think this is very doable.
Get crackin'.
p.s. - The Bernank or whomever the esteemed Fed Chairman would be would have to manage inflation at this growth rate (hypotehtically insane that it is) so that there's not hyperinflationary collapse. A minor detail.
At least if RP elected we'd reverse course. Now the corporate conseratives favorite dirty word is "libertarian" afraid they will lose their control and money from their overlords. Santorum is sucking their dicks in Texas now.
Time for a new media station that gives us news of freedom and truth. To pull in older supporters who miss message from internet, a new station that won't cancel shows for mentioning RP support.
No, Dammit ... this time is different! You just gotta have more hope!
Not hope, work harder to stop them.
Need a news station who will report so all can see fraud in the GOP party. Show all that the GOP change caucus dates and times in Maine to confuse voters and they tell organizers to make sure not to chose delgates who are under 40 to weed out RP supporters.
In fact, why the hell aren't the unemployed who care about this country doing independent news stories on fraud in this election, then posting to the internet. Even sting operations. Why are we letting them commit election fraud?
We need on the ground reporters who will show us the strong RP support and the measly support for Santorum, Romney. Notice how CSPAN doesn't cover the primary race anymore, or other news station don't show us on the ground support. Only time CNN showed us is when they thought it was a Gingrich shoe in and instead the whole caucus in Nevada was not for Gingrich, but was a RP love fest. How come we didn't see news story of on the ground support in MN, MO, or CO?
They are stealing the election from us and we are letting them.
Every realist with an IQ above 100 (even 85) knows that the debt is unpayable unless: a) dollars are devalued by another 75% over the short term (not too short, though, as frogs will leap from water heated too quickly; 7-10 years is a decent guestimate), or b) we literally turn Japanese, and The Bernank and his successor get Americans to buy treasuries bearing highly negative real yields in large quantities and for a long period of time, or c) both of a & b.
The problem with this solution (option c) is that even it has a finite window of effectiveness, as it leads to fundamental economic collapse (diminishing incremental returns on investment of capital, ultimately turning into negative returns, will act as the ultimate disincentive for producers and suppliers of goods and services to produce and supply).
The U.S. economy can't grow itself out of this crisis, it can't borrow itself out this crisis (that's a myth applicable to any nation at any point in history), and unless someone believes the U.S. will formally default on its debt (or interest payments on its debt), the only mathematically possible way to keep kicking the can is to print a mind boggling number of Federal Reserve Notes & to engineer a scenario where many, many people are still willing to conduct commerce with FRNs and hold FRN, negative real yiled bearing FRN demoninated government bonds.
Now that we've covered that, let's talk about the really bad news...
On second thought, screw it, let's just have the government hire everyone, resulting in a true banana republic, bound to collapse within 5 or 10 years, or start WWIII.
Look! Over there! It's an Iranian/Chinese/Russian <insert randomly selected allegedly threatening thing that is of Iranian/Chinese/Russian origin here>.
p.s. - The truth is that The Money Masters are playing the ultimate fiat inflation-deflation stategy to control the global economic Ponzi as evidenced by the most indebted nation on earth as measured by most metrics (i.e. Japan), which has increased its fiat supply by an astounding amount over the last 30 years on a relative basis, having a fiat currency that has appreciated rapidly and strongly against nations having fiat currencies that have decreased in supply compared to the yen on a relative basis.
-- Uber-Saint Lord Mayer Amschel Rothschild
NIRP: The Angel of Debt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mort_du_fossoyeur.jpg
We, the people, need Ron Paul.
If you still have any questions as to why, please view this Alex Jones interview:
"Entering into The Age of Darkness With Dr. Francis Boyle"
http://www.infowars.com/entering-into-the-age-of-darkness-with-dr-franci...
did TD do a logarithmic chart or is this linear debt? The debt is growing at 9% per year or so.
You're correct. 9% sounds so benign, but wow, when one breaks it down, it means almost a doubling every 5 years:
U.S. National Debt (officially - a joke, I know) was 9.4 trillion when Obama took office, and will be 16.7 trillion for fiscal year 2012 (officially) - http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt
16.7 trillion minus 9.4 trillion = 7.3 trillion
That's a 44% increase in 5 years (based on through the end of FY 2012), or put another way, nearly a doubling of the debt (by official figures).
44% divided by 5 = 8.8%
Of course, the real debt is at minimum 58 trillion, and as much as 202 trillion, based on the estimates (even though they're widely varying; more on that in the links that follow) of two absolutely credible sources, David M. Walker & Laurence Kotlikoff, so it's all moot anyways:
Judging by your arithmetic, you must have gone to an American school.
Starting debt: $9.4 trillion
Ending debt: $16.7 trillion
Difference: $7.3 trillion
% increase: 7.3/9.4 = 77%, not 44% (where did you get that?!)
to get compounded interest rates, you don't just divide by the number of years; you need to take roots using that number of years
Fifth root of 77% is 12%, not 8.8% (i.e 1.12^5=1.77)
I'm not disagreeing with your thesis, mind you, just that the figures you use to support them are not calculated according to the laws of the known universe. You might want to google the "Rule of 70" to get a better handle on figuring this stuff out in your head.
It's even worse than I thought. 77%???!!!!
Thanks for cleaning up my errors.
These revised, accurate figures have officially blown my prior optimism America's debt crisis could be resolved.
p.s. - I was highly distracted and multi-tasking when I posted those flawed calculations, but that's just a lame excuse to try and mitigate my embarassment. And Trav's 9% number screwed me up (It's Trav's fault, actually).
No worries, mate. I'm only here to help.
And I think it's all Trav's fault too :}
I forgot the most important excuse of all: It was being reported by the Main Stream Media (the critical informational institution that Americans depend on to determine their future course) that Whitney Houston had died (with blanket coverage that surpassed all matters regarding our deficit spending, national debt, NDAA 2012 passage that undermines constitutional guarantees, many-trillion USD wars in Iraq, Afghanistan & Iran soon that are helping to bankrupt us, the co-opting/Deep Capture of our legislative, executive and even judicial branches of government by multinational corporate and foreign interest groups, the fraudclosure settlement that undermines constitutional guarantees, unemployment crisis, labor participation rate, SNAP and other government assistance reliance, crumbling of our public infrastructure, precarious financial state of health of our states, counties and cities, and many other less important 'issues' than Whitney Houston's death, in the aggregate).
But it's still Trav's fault, mainly.
The federal, state, and local debt is 121%. Total debt is 370% Suicide is 250%. Bernanke is juggling 8 plates right now. How long? He's a good juggler.
As long as the US dollar is the reserve currency backed by the US military, printing prospartity seems to work. Once that changes and the world cuts up our credit card, then the US goes FUBAR. The economic doomsday clock is ticking, how are you spending this time we have to prepare?
+1 - the "Rule of 70" ought to be banned as a subversive mathematical mind trick ;-)
Ah, and I think it's all Trav's fault too
It's really Whitney Houston's fault, and that plus her inside knowledge of 911 is why TPTB had her done in.
can't be. Whitney Houston died, Trav is still posting. ergo trav is not Whitney
My quick and dirty calculations show that if we start at $17 tn (or so) and grow the debt (doesn't that sound nice, like a plant or something) at 9% / year, then we do arrive at a debt of 24 tn.
I show my work: $17 tn * 1.09 * 10.9 *1.09 * 1.09 = approx. $24 tn
The Ron Paul Crew will screw over the mainstream media and the GOP by handing Obama the win. You can take that to the bank and too fucking bad FOX News crew.
That's what they hope since they are both from the same corporatist party.
It was obvious that Romney won Maine when big mouth brunette on CNN kept repeating how important it was for RP to win Maine. The fix was in.
So lazy ass America, what are we going to do about it. Roll over and let them steal it?
And since nothing will improve with whomever the PTB choses as president, Obama and the Democrats can take credit for the complete and total economic collapse of the USA. I can live with that.
But meanwhile in your next Obama four years the status quo will rob us blind until they hold all the cards before the collapse. No lazy ass, you won't be able to live with that.
400,000,000 personal firearms in the hands of civilians. I can live with that.
+ many, Michael you always stay focused.
whstlblwr said:
...presidential administration of the winning War Party candidate (be it George W. Obama, Newt Gangrenerich, Willard "The Rat" Romney, or Frothy Santorum)...
Fixed it for ya.
This is why you need to get your news from the leggy blonde chicks at Fox News.
I constructed a spreadsheet in 2008 that projected the US would reach about 22.4 trill public debt in 2020. At that time I thought a lot about that and realised it would be a horrific catastrophe if it happened, because long before 2020 everyone on Earth would realise that there was no chance the USA was good for it. Three years later it looks like I was optimistic.
But what really blows my mind though is that there are still people out there who think and assert the taxpayer can and should magically make it all ok again.
Because there's zero chance taxpayers are going to do any such thing so why do economists and Bankers and MSM shills keep imagining that is some sort of viable ultimate fall-back position?
We won't be accepting the 'nationalisation' of Red-Sheild's global gambling debts.
'Nationalisation' of toxic-assets is just code for stealing every last bit of wealth from every nation on earth, and leaving us with the war-torn starving husk.
I have a better idea - let's not.
'logs' are for wussies... until, of course, they're not...
For those who can understand, somehow, integrals, this shows the problem between PAYING the debt and PAYMENT of the debt:
Integral_from_1_to_0(xx)dx = some nice tricks here done by Bernoulli = 1 - 1/22 + 1/33 - 1/44 + 1/55 - . . . = 0.78343 . . .
Integral(xx)dx = does not have a closed solution (plainly said undefined or may be, just for fun, 1/(ZeroHedge))
Note the BIG difference: one of them is solvable ( think politics, economic policy, professional money distributing people taking decisions - all of them can be defined as Short Time Dependant Variables - STDV), in DEFINED "time" frame.
Without a given, a WELL DEFINED time frame, influenced/created by STDV, we have a system crash = undefined.
So this is the problem we are ALL facing.
Very few people look even 5 years ahead. Not to speak 10 - 20, forget about 50 or 100.
When one starts thinking in THAT extended time frame EVERYTHING changes.
A note aside. Tesla was one person that I know of, that has thought about what the world will be facing in the future. Of course, he was thinking about more important things than money. He was thinking about ENERGY. The underlying force for ALL living systems, economy is one example ( a human made ) of such a system.
120 years ago, Tesla was able to foresee that the MAJOR problem humanity will face in the future is SUSTAINABLE energy sources.
And here you have it in ONE word the major problem we all face, even without 99.9% of us realizing it.
If only we could start thinking in undefined than in defined integrals, using the analogy above, we could have a totally different world around us.
But, hey, human life by itself is in a defined integral. And as we all know THE HARDEST THING is to think outside of one's inherited environment.
Had to give you a greenie for mentioning Tesla, hands down the greatest scientific mind that has lived to date.
pods
Takes away his hopium pipe...
Paul Krugman IS PISSED that I'm talking about the official (based on U.S. Government's own numbers) debt, let alone David M. Walker's or Laurence Kotlikoff's figures.
He just tweeted:
I had better put more thought into what I write. He does have a Nobel Laureate in Economics.
Now, that's funny.
Paul didn't give you whole scoop. Based on his Nobel Laureate Economist thesis the acceptable debt to GDP ratio for the United States during times of economic weakness is based on an exponential function (the specifics of which are kept secret!). The worse things get the greater the allowable debt to GDP ratio. In the mind of Paul Krugman there is no limit to debt to GDP ratio for the US.
Krugman uses a log-log model with a few dummy variables for good measure ... Wait, I read that wrong ... Krugman was logged by a dummy for good measure.
Paulie's first audition as a comedian flopped...lol.
I'm thinkin ditch digger or drunken window breaker is better suited to his abilities.
nmewn said of Fake Nobel Prize in Economics Award recipient Paul Krugman:
It would have to be drunken window breaker. Ditch digging requires formidable skills (marking the path with stakes and string, calculating the slope (because water still flows downhill), and operating a shovel) which are likely beyond the grasp of a Fake Nobel Prize in Economics Award laureate.
"because water still flows downhil"
WhatEVER, you friggin Austrian Schooler ...
Madagascar bitchez!
Phooking Santorum. Snake handling womb boss pip squeek.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt0Y39eMvpI
That clock has morphed into a ticking time bomb.
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Costa Rica here I come.
Good luck with that.
If q99x2 has assets, and/or friends, and/or speaks Spanish, Costa Rica IS a good option.
Costa Rica is not what it used to be. I do speak Spanish, and I am from the region. The truth is you are placing your bets. At this point, who knows what can happen. Costa Rica's main income comes from coffee and tourism. No country is an island anymore. Already their entitlement programs are starting to weigh in the country (health care) and real estate through the roof. Guess who they blame for that (fucken politicians)? Foreigners become targets during times of stress. Just read some of the comments in this board. Lastly, many retires are seen their dollar loosing value against local currencies. In other words, the dollar is turning into crap and when you convert it to colones evaporates quickly. I am not saying don't go. Just don't do it because you think you are going to be insulated.
Also, You NEVER know what a desperate US government can do because, at this point, it is unimaginable.
Yes, screw all this. Time to do what our ancestors did and get the hell out.
Where's a good place to go?
I heard Titan is nice this time of year.
Kind of a bitch to get to, though.
Hong Kong or Singapore if they will take you
I think Singapore is already had their fill. Hong Kong is filled to capacity.
Go to New Zealand and find my precious for me.
I kinda like it here. I think I'll just take it back.
I agree. I would consider a small town where taxes are relatively low. I am thinking of getting an rv park. All those people loosing their homes need to live somewhere. I hear that many are buying rv and move around to where the jobs are (The Wrapes of Wrath).
BTW.
Steinbeck complained publicly about government harassment. Thomas Steinbeck, the author's eldest son, said that J. Edgar Hoover, director of the FBI at the time, could find no basis for prosecuting Steinbeck and therefore used his power to encourage the U.S. Internal Revenue Service to audit Steinbeck's taxes every single year of his life, just to annoy him. According to Thomas, a true artist is one who "without a thought for self, stands up against the stones of condemnation, and speaks for those who are given no real voice in the halls of justice, or the halls of government. By doing so these people will naturally become the enemies of the political status quo."[39]
There's a lot to be said for setting up an RV park. I've noticed a resurgence in them and they always seem at least 25-30% full, even in the off season. There's also a lot to be said for those who occupy them. They've unplugged from being tied to one place, whether by design or necessity. I think most of us have thought about that...just saying piss on it, sell everything off (convert it all to something more portable...lol) and hit the road.
I believe it was you up thread who spoke about Costa Rica. I agree with your assessment of it. It seems more, increasingly, a rich persons playground there.
A sizable portion of it is a national park which comes as a good & a bad. Yes, nature is protected, however it is removed from private hands and taxation. Someone, somewhere, somehow will make up that "revenue" shortfall even if it's from international sources which carries it's own pitfalls to the Costa Rican government and it's citizens.
And I won't even get into the nightmare of personal liberty/protection there ;-)
TruthinSunshine
Now add the big pile of mounting derivatives to your projected figures.
[Tiny voice nagging at Obama] If we can get those peasant bitches to accept our UN Gaia plans, we can flip this enormous US debt and ride the motherfucker for another decade. [Tiny voice says to Obama] We need to be eat’ in our peas and kicking the can down the roa….. Uh, I mean.. Kicking ‘in green energy jobs to turn this country around.
http://gigaom.com/cleantech/copenhagen-obama-in-un-climate-chief-says-no-plan-b/
314 million Americans and 50 million Mexican illegal immigrants == 364 million "U.S. Persons."
Truthy
Dan Amerman came to about the same number ($750k debt for each able-to-pay taxpayer but that was a few years back).
Either way it cannot ever be paid in 'good' money. We will not default, we are the United States of America (damn it) so inflation it will be.
This is obvious to all (all who are able to understand and interested in understanding) but if a politician says those words he'll be treated like..like ...Ron Paul. I say this without irony or sarcasm and yet it is true...politicians cannot speak these words. We are in some trouble because we have a problem we cannot fix and the solutions cannot be discussed. prepare accordingly.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think what the US needs now is a few meetings with a TROIKA. The TROIKA would have this resolved in no time, only 72 meetings or so and then maybe a possible solution.
TROIKA, TROIKA, TROIKA!!
50% GDP growth rate is totally realistic. Just like the Greek pledge to return to growth by 2013 despite a 20% reduction in all incomes and revenues.
You're a funny dude!
The whole Fiat PONZI is obviously failing all across the world. The bankster elite and their political whores will keep telling each other that it's still working when everyone including these crooks know full well that it's broken beyond repair.
PPS note that if interest rates raise at all, if oil pushes past $112, not to mention PIIGS crash, and the payments on debt go berzerk = 2014 debt/gdp ration berzerking out of control...and as per above pop growth rise, which in terms of demographics and earning/productivity potential = more gov subsidization etc we are beyond insolvency...
BB will do another helicopter drop, except we will need wheelbarrows full of cash to buy a loaf of bread.
The lamestream media and politicians will play class warfare and redirect the anger of the masses towards the small business owners and upper middle class instead of the robber barrons on Wall Street
I hear Mayan is the new Weimar republic this year. It is all the rage in Europe.
i believe the calcs for this estimated debt/gdp ratio to be conservative
Agreed. Fed tax receipts at $3.4T? No chance. That means many more people working and happily paying much, much higher taxes without denting spending. Also the Fed budget close to flat for the next 4 years? No visible Oval Office candidate is going to achieve that...
...BUT we are not going to find out because it will not get that far. The tipping point is but a pinprick on the rear-view mirror horizon. Europe is insolvent and printing unabated. There is not a single, viable catalyst to reverse the trajectory, nevermind overcome the weight of the world's decades-long pigfest on debt.
TPTB are running out of rugs under which to sweep the mess. Even the slowest of slow-motion trainwrecks (think level 3 of Inception) will not keep the beast shackled past 2014.
My rant is done. :D
+1 for stating the truth. +10 for Inception reference.
Hmmm, maybe I have that backwards...
+100
for being at level 4
I agree with eveything in your post except 2014. The goons have been able to keep the turd floating for much longer than any of us thought. Even the EU hasn't fallen apart yet despite the PIIGS
I have NEVER understood how they can leave out food/energy from their inflation voodoo numbers. Those are the two biggest things people spend money on! How can you leave them out and have any credibility. Thats like pricing a car based on the cost of the tires and completely ignoring the body, electrical work, materials and labor. Whuuuut??
It's called self-serving statist propaganda.
Actually, folks spend 12-15% on food and energy in the US. That is creeping higher. If we computed inflation as they did in Carter's time it would be around 10%.
+1 for pointing out during which alzheimer's patient's reign the fudge factoring began.
Never fails to amuse when the cons complain incessantly about their own nefarious methodologies.
Ketchup is a vegetable!
The military count toward domestic employment!
As long as we're using Stockman as a scion of debt debate:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/opinion/01stockman.html?_r=1
"The nation’s public debt — if honestly reckoned to include municipal bonds and the $7 trillion of new deficits baked into the cake through 2015 — will soon reach $18 trillion. That’s a Greece-scale 120 percent of gross domestic product, and fairly screams out for austerity and sacrifice. It is therefore unseemly for the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, to insist that the nation’s wealthiest taxpayers be spared even a three-percentage-point rate increase."
+1 for pointing out the change that 0bozo brought for you 0bots
Never fails to amuse me when the 0bots cheer 0bozo for carrying on Bush's policies
LOL...WTF would you know about how I feel about Obama, shitwit?
Don't you have some loopholes to go exploit or something, sycophantic leech-boy?
I'm one of those "wealthiest" citizens. From a rural background I worked hard, got a degree and married a great gal. I was an IT consultant for years. We have always lived beneath our means, never spent foolishly. It is very depressing hearing Stockman say that even though I contributed the max to SS annually, I should get nothing. It's already skewed incredibly to those who contribute little. Yes, we need to get revenue and spending lined up but the problem is that spending keeps rising regardless Several friends say they would not mind paying more but we all feel it is like hurling a baseball at Mt Everest. OK, take 5 more from the evil rich guys. You still have a trillion dollar deficit!!
If ZH's beautiful 7-20-11 gold / national debt correlation continues to hold, $24T debt, up 60%, puts au at $2755.
Bring it...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-rise-143-trillion-us-debt-limit-increase-%E2%80%93-bloomberg-chart-day
My guess is that gold goes MUCH HIGHER than that. Physical gold anyway.
The Fiat goose is cooked. Gold has only one way to go and that's higher relative to USD and Euro.
Yeah, +1. Unemplyment, income, and tax revenue projections are rosy to say the least. The CBO is constrained to use "official" numbers in all their projections. I think the truck's already driven off the cliff, and we're just waiting for gravity to do its work at this time.
I agree completely. We crossed the Rubicon at 10 trillion - the rest is extraneous. You know, I know, the whole world knows that figure will be repaid through default and a lower standard of living. It's so odd watching this happen - almost like a dream.
Strange days indeed. Que music
Clearly we are on a road to complete currency failure.
Bix Weir seems to think that the new currency planned will be gold backed and that the Fed is planning to be "the good guys" for us all in this banker fraud. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/261.cfm
Looks like time is running out to stock up on metals, guns, and food
I bought more canned sardines this morning...good for your arteries and keeps a long time in the can and super cheap. I'm learing how to make almost everything from these fish...even sardine bread using the bread machine (although, admittedly, sardine bread takes soem getting used to).
Many scary things happening like gun stores sold out of ammo EVRY week! What the heck are people doing with all that stuff?! My policeman neighbor told me, 'pople are worried."
No shit sherlock!
I got my side by side 16 gauge and XD-40 for the home. I kind of wish I still had my .270 rifle but I think for defending my home and property a shotgun and pistol should be just fine. Also for those looking for good pistol ammo I highly recommend the DPX and PoweRBall ammo from Corbon. DPX is made to penetrate car window glass and still continue somewhat straight unlike other bullets. And PoweRball is hollow point with a plastic ball inside the hollow point to help penetrate through denim and layers of clothes and still shred the fuck out of the body once it gets through the clothing.
If it got to that point you will need to do far more then just defend your house, with that ultra short range weaponry youre going to be in trouble if a collapse scenario happened. You cant drill the pack of scumbags the next block up and heading your way with any of that.
Get another .270, in a worst case scenario it has 10X the range and you can get one for a few hundred bucks. Heck, even a cheap surplus Nagant or Enfield can be had for little money.
What sort of weapon do you recommend to defend my neighborhood from stupid rednecks?
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
LOL.
Just hide out at the library, you'll be safe there. ;)
+ 1 and LOL!
DoChenRollingBearing: bearing asiaticorum
First getter some taste in movies, then change your handle, and then use your imagination. ;)
Aww...prep school kids are sooo thin-skinned.
A book. Stops em right in their tracks.
Looks more like a bent stick and a cape, maybe a funny cone-shaped hat with stars on it....
Elton John and Abba
you should be more concerned about the smart rednecks
Pretty sure the French established that in a contest of fixed positions verses protected mobile firepower ...
Corbon was good stuff maybe 10 years ago, but there are a ton of bonded rounds that will penetrate auto glass without jacket separation. The HST from Federal can achieve it 3/4 times and it's a non-bonded round.
What do you think of hiding in a tree and jumping on the enemy's back?
BBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Fucking SCARY!
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
Hmm. +1 for tree stand.
-30 for using your micropenis and not a 125 grain broadhead.
Your boyfriend will protect you, limpy
Surprised yours let you out of the dungeon again after last time.
Max Fischer said:
I think that, for you, this is the best possible strategy.
Now all you need to do is pull your head out of your ass so you can aim.
I was in Russia when the USSR went out of existence and the country was bankrupt. (Typical sign: "Please do not use rubles for toilet paper.") Unless the US reaction is vastly dissimilar (and it could be) things will not be that much different. Buildings will still stand, folks will go to work, kids will go to school, - EXCEPT the cost of foreign goods will be exorbitant and Everything will be on sale. The oddest sight was individuals on street corners selling tables, books, clothes, family portraits, etc. But folks did not start running around shooting their neighbor or riot in the street. Financial Armaggedon does not necessarily mean societal chaos. It will be a time of experimentation for new currencies (we could use the four major western ones at the time).
Financial Armaggedon does not necessarily mean societal chaos.
In a non-homogeneous society it will.
Considering Americans of various socio-economic groups are at each other's throats in good times, there is a high probability of social Armageddon in times to come.
hmmm...there is societal chaos on that day (forget what is called) when thousands line up and taze each other at walmart for microwaves, cardasian boxed sets, dvd/vcr combos for 12.99, table cloths etc...yea.... nope everything will be fine in a copllapse in the the old red, white and blue...keep in mind there is a gun behind every blade of grass. russians, arabs, asians etc are pacifists compared to what social unrest would look like in la, ny, nj, miami etc...i'm sfraid an old 16 gauge side by side might be more useful as a paddle than home defence
Hurricaine catrina. 24 hours and everyone went ape shit. Take that times 4000 times 3000 miles.
1. The Soviets had very strict gun control and only those connected to the military or security apparatus had guns
2. The USSR didn't have 45 million people on welfare. Everyone was forced to do something for the state.
3. Each of the Soviet Republics was pretty much homogenous. They are less likely to kill each other if they feel some kinship. Look at Japan vs New Orleans after their disasters.
Today's society is essentially built around debt and financial armageddon will not mean societal breakdown? Please, Soviets on individual level had effectively ZERO debt, they didn't carry credit cards to buy food, didn't drive cars to go to work and used public transport mostly, did not depend on imported food, could sustain themselves in terms of oil, nat gas etc. Situation in the US is almost opposite of that of the Soviet Union pre-breakdown. Don't fool yourself, if financial system and/or currency goes under, it will be horrible.
Not so, the USSR imported massive quantities of grain (see pdf below) from the West to feed its people, more and more with time, mainly because Soviet era agriculture had very low productivity. They never became self-sufficient in making their own bread, hence when the collapse occurred the shop shelves were empty. The shelves went from being just almost empty, to completely empty, because the Soviet's credit was so poor that they could not secure loans from European countries in order to buy grain from western markets (and certain great powers would not permit it), simply because the price of oil was low and this was strangling Moscow of funds needed to feed people.
Their chronic cash-flow problem went from an extreme liquidity problem to a profound insolvency, and the total inability to attract a Western bailout and much general hunger, deprivation demoralisation and nearly total economic shutdown was the result.
That, more than anything else, is what bought about 'Perestroika' and the soft-collapse of the Soviet Union.
--
Soviet Economic Decline: Did an Oil Crisis Cause the Transition in the Soviet Union?
http://www.aei.org/files/2007/04/19/20070419_Gaidar.pdf
http://www.oilcrisis.com/reynolds/sovietdecline.htm
There was another reason for grain imports, not shortage per se:
http://rs6.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field%28DOCID+su0357%29
They traded grain for livestock in essence to show Soviet citizen eats no less meat than the America one. Twisted ideological reason for resources allocation.
Interesting Boris, thanks for that.
excellent, boris. I was wondering about the "reasons" and my thought was that some planning office thought cattle is more useful during crises. Though I still think the original driver was some political deal for the US wheat farmers. The supply was there, they needed new markets.
What do you suggest against an AC-130H/U?
Five feet of reinforced concrete, or a directionalized EMP.
http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm
Hide and ambush them when they land to refuel and re-arm
I've listened to Bix and you have to believe one thing first...that Greenspan lead us through 2 bubble that popped and failed to finish us off as planned and
That pick #32 I think for the new Reserve just so happened to have a willingness to follow Greenspan...and who by the way completely lacks an understanding of the great depression even though he is a scholar.
I think it's more likely government or some faction of government is lining this up. Some very smart people in very key spots but even this is way out there.
They're called "Marxists", and they're very good at breaking governments....
I disagree completely. There is no master plan for world domination or financial ruin. Capitalism was so successful that we forgot that all its wealth, products and advancements were not automatic. Worse, abundance turned politicians into zombies (and we readily accepted) who promised us we could have it all regardless of whether it was earned. Prosperity is not automatic but neither is failure. No one is planning anything. They're trying one thing, seeing its failure, trying another (repeat ad infinitum) all the while refusing to consider the consequences of debt.
One more thing - bubbles happen because of low savings. If we were prudent and stocked away 10-20% of our income, we could not afford to hitch a ride on the instant prosperity train.
I agree with you, no "master plan"
your last sentence shocked me. is this an original thought of your's? is there more on it?
I am inclined to agree with your post that it isn't planned, its just consequence = "cock up before conspiracy".
However, if high savings rates prevent bubbles, please explain Japan's Real Estate Bubble in the 1980s, when their savings rates were consistantly over 10 percent?
http://www.mof.go.jp/pri/research/discussion_paper/ron164.pdf
'Good guys', as through the prism of extreme nationalism that an intense crisis brings. Jim Rikards seems to think that ~70% of the world's gold is stored in NYC vaults, enough to hold/confiscate and dictate a new world currency. Thus Rikard's twitter post, "Got a bid from #Germany for foreign rights to #CurrencyWars. Germans should read it. Ch. 11 tells why they'll never see their gold again", and this: "@FrankfurtFinanz Yes. This is described in Ch 5 and Ch 11 of #CurrencyWars. #Germany will never see its #gold again.
Interesting premise.
The only reason the world would switch to a gold standard at the same time as the US confiscated most of the world's gold would be US's military might ... and if the US is willing to use it's military might to steal foreign wealth then how is gold really relevant to the equation? It would be a side show really.
Without US military force what would happen if the US confiscated all the gold stored by it's banks is that the rest of the world would find some other currency to facilitate trade (which is the raison d'etre of currency). The US would be stuck with a mountain of gold no one wants, a still completely uncompetitive economy and universal trade barriers blocking it from foreign natural resources.
I doubt there would be much invading needed. America, France, Italy, Germany, the IMF, and a bunch of ETFs and Hedge funds hold a large portion of the gold, at least compared to reported national reserves. On top of that, much of the gold owned by other countries are held in New York and London.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve
You misunderstand my point ...
In the absence of military force if the US says "okay we are going to default on all that debt you own ... and also we took your gold, you should still find it valuable and give me oil and consumer goods for it" the OPEC countries and China aren't going to say "sure why not". They are going to say "we need neither you nor your fucking gold, choke on it".
The US contributes very little valuable to them other than military protection (in the common sense and in the Mafia sense). In the end they have no absolute need for anything from the US, not even gold ... a gold standard is nice, but there are alternatives. Which they would likely go with in the above scenario absent force.
The PTB DON'T WANT a gold standard. They went to a lot of trouble to get rid of it and they don't want it back. They want a pure FIAT system they can manipulate and control they DO NOT WANT to be tied down to gold.
The gold standard is a fantasy. They can make WAY more money finagling the pieces of paper ( or electronic beeps and boops) than all the gold in the world.
What we will get when the present system collapses is a new FIAT system. Start from scratch and away we go again for another 100 years of exploitation.
I love Bix's theories and hope to god he's right. The only problem I have with the logic of his message is: Wouldn't he be putting the cause in harms way by naming names? Wouldn't his buddies come up to him and say, "Dude, STFU." Or maybe it's a Lindsay Williams type thing - we all know he's not getting any inside information that 'they' don't want him to put out there. Not that he hasn't been right many times but that the message is controlled. Who knows but Bix is sticking his neck WAY out there with the Palin thing.
Yes, I'm waiting for the blue (striped) money.
Please following the link (but worth re-quoting, just in case):
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
I think all the unemployed people should work for the government and the minimum wage should be $100 an hour. And yes, I voted for Obama. He is smart. Like me.
Bud,
They already do and the effective hourly is $100!
om
You're right! But the economy is still in trouble! So the minimum wage should be raised to $500 an hour, and people not making that much in private industry should be hired by the government so they can make more money. For example, the government should take over Wal Mart and McDonalds and pay all their workers a living wage, $500 an hour. I'm surprised no one has thought of that, except for me, Al Sharpton, Van Jones, Barbra Streisand, Odumba the Golman Sachs Lawn Jockey, and Nancy Pelosi.
I have an even better solution.
Just pass a law that makes it illegal to be unemployed. Fine people every day they're unemployed. They'll become employed soon enough. Even if it's at a penny an hour.
With brainstorms like these I deserve a Nobel Prize in Economics.
Coming soon to a Republican-chaired committee near you.
Oh, and make em take a piss test too.
With brainstorms like these I deserve a Nobel Prize in Economics.
And a Peace Prize! Don't forget your Peace Prize!
Dude, they are already using a number of laws to fill the ranks of the prison labor population already working for pennies in things like call center work. Next time you get a call center worker who does not sound Indian or Filipino, ask him or her what they are in for.
The worst part is that we had the chance to call the bankers bluf in 2008. The bankers demand trillions, and even though we did not agree with the decision, the politicians gave them our debt. No one agreed, but did we march? Did we tell them off? No and no. And still we do not address the issue.
There really isn't much time left, and at this point the only thing we can do is to prepare for the next leg of the Illuminatti plan, whatever crazy thing lies in store. And really, who knows what; currency devaluation accelerates, bond market implodes, war, who knows.
Just be prepared.
So what preparations are considered necessary in order for us to be turned into bars of soap?
distilled water, acids & sodium hydroxide.
Long lye and dye.
In the end they are going to give the masses what most ZH's want them to have ... a gold standard, small government and firm property rights.
Unfortunately by that time they will own most property (including gold).
Good luck holding on to all that property when there are 100 million angry people with guns.
Mr. Lennon
Agreed! I would have opted for "Tanks in the streets" rather than the bailout. PS For what little good it did, I did fly my flag upside-down while the Asshole-In-Chief was being sworn in.
Where does the line between The Bankers and The Govt exist? Seems that banks are so regulated -as are insurance companies- that you can't consider them stand-alone businesses. Please enlighten how we can rail against 'bankers' yet ignore the vast obvious influence of govt IN the banking industry? I'm all ears...
The bankers are the ones with net worth over 100 million ... the government is the one on the pay roll.
You have hit on a good point here. Banks and government for all intents and purposes are the same thing. Without government support through legal tender, banks could not get away with fractional reserve banking.
Without the banks, the government could not deficit spend till its heart is content.
They are the same. Or at least two players on the same team.
All started with the Red Shield and 5 arrows.
We are just seeing the endgame now, where the winner cashes in his chips.
And let me tell you, it does not feel good to be a chip.
pods
Again, pods drives it home.
"Banks and government for all intents and purposes are the same thing."
Nothing more needs to be said and don't ever let anyone tell you otherwise.
we're gonna need a bigger guillotine
pods, nmewn, you are talking about the US gov - yes, banks are funding the US candidate's elections, so they get their candidates.
If you take this out of your current context, in general banks are
either fully funded and completely independent from the government,
or they are not fully funded, need therefore government regulation, are usually happy customers of the partially gold-backed or completely fiat currency of the government, need a lender of last resort, and are, for all purpuses, agents of the government's resource extraction mechanism.
In times of crises their original role of being agents of the financial/funding private/market-based resource-to-projects resource allocation mechanism is set a bit aside because the government wants more resources, that's it.
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ok, ok, it's just a longer explanation to the fact that you are right...
Eisenhower should have warned us about the bankers instead of the MIC. Then again, they would have killed him