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This Time Is No Different - Reflections On 1929 Optimism

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When it comes to markets, the following clip, as well as memories of recent market collapses, highlights that it is usually brightest just before it's pitch black.

..."As the market floundered financial leaders were as optimistic as ever...more so"...

(h/t @Macheterosforvr)

 

We are where...

 

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Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:11 | 2305080 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Would a bag of "Wolf Nipple Chips" also be taxed?

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:05 | 2305068 Eric L. Prentis
Eric L. Prentis's picture

Monetizing the debt is what tin-pot dictators do just before they are forced to flee the country. Kings would still be in power, if monetizing the debt were viable. It never works, not once in history.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:15 | 2305227 ffart
ffart's picture

Ask the people of Zimbabwe about that whole fleeing the country part. Obama is outright murdering US citizens and people are LOVING him for it. It makes the sheeple feel secure knowing he has the ability to kill anyone he identifies as a threat.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 09:36 | 2307477 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Yes...there are many stories as of late showing that it is becoming increasingly difficult to leave the US through points of entry/exit.  If the SHTF, I wouldn't be surprised if, magically, they are able to seal our border 110%!

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:10 | 2305075 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

THIS POST IS BULLSHIT

 

Never has a more irrelevant video been posted than this. A crash like this will not be seen in our lifetime. They will go down printing. Dow 50,000 is coming (along with $50 per gallon gas).

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:24 | 2305104 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

And by the way all the morons who post market analysis on this site are just clueless. Do you really not know that the Fed has access to its own HFT operation. You think they are gonna let the market control stocks??!!! What a joke!!!

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:36 | 2305134 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AH the Friday afternoon post market close morons show up on schedule. 

Hey idiot, do you understand theres no POINT to pumping things, unless youre also SELLING off what you printed and pumped? See those STOCKS you talk about the FED controlling are WORTHLESS, unless they can SELL them, and they cant. Thats why youve got MW running an article treating stock markets as a Powerball Lottery trying to create a buying hysteria. Its not going to work.

What youre saying is a 1 sided equation is a complete equation. No point in pumping unless you can pass off the pump, and what we're looking at is idiots who printed and pumped, and are now bagholders. So, they CAN keep pumping, sure they can, and each step higher THEY are bigger bagholders, because NO ONE is buying anything theyre pumping.

But youre probably too dense to even get that.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:54 | 2305192 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

You're so very niave !! You really think the Fed can't play this game with their computers as long as the want? Think about it!!

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:08 | 2305218 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

You said it yourself Nimrod... They will "go down printing"...

What exactly did you mean by 'go down' if not 'implode in horrific fashion.'

I presume it wasn't a casual reference to oral sex.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 20:11 | 2305324 WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

Calling Sheepdog nieve is like, calling your mother a virgin.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:31 | 2305113 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You wont ever even see $6 gas, not in this country, that would cause mayhem so I dont know what nether region youre pulling $50 gas from. Ridiculous. 

Lets see, DOW 14,000 had $1.60 gas, now DOW 13,000 has $4.50 gas....game over whether you realize it or not, wise up or perish.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:55 | 2305197 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

Yeah, that was exactly how it went down in Weimar Germany!!

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 20:09 | 2305318 WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

The notes produced by the Weimar republic were not the world's reserve currency.  When the world realizes that the dollar has lost its' position atop the shit pile, things will happen quickly.  Weimar's hyperinflation was slowed by the need to print notes; today's digital world will not produce Weimar results.  The US hyperinflationary period will be digital, hence faster.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 21:30 | 2305453 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

I agree.  If the US dollar crashes it will be a quick final act.

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 03:10 | 2305896 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

But it won't crash, and it will always be the world's reserve currency ... I know, 'cos Timmy G told me so!

/sarc>

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:21 | 2305096 kdrury12
kdrury12's picture

These guys never explain how HFT caused this crash....

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:32 | 2305117 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

HFT never 'caused' anything itself, its a program on a machine. What causes all crashes is arrogance and idiocy. And those 2 things have never been in greater supply than today.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 18:40 | 2305159 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture
The Department Of Defense Wants Control Of The Internet Back

 

The U.S. Department of Defense may have funded the research that led to the Internet, but freewheeling innovation created the patchwork of privately owned technology that makes up the Internet today. Now the U.S. government is trying to wrest back some control, as it adjusts to an era when cyberattacks on U.S. corporations and government agencies are common.

 

http://www.secretnews-compact.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=242:the-department-of-defense-wants-control-of-the-internet-back&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=50

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 12:27 | 2306355 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Sorry, but i'm still using it.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:28 | 2305199 q99x2
q99x2's picture

How did your computer react the last time you tried to instill a little fear into it? How about greed?

They won't push the market lower unless the computers are programmed to drive the market lower. Plus a huge percentage of the shares are in the hands of central banks and they never have to sell - ever. Not like it used to be. BTFD.

I went back and looked at your schematic. We just started getting back to the break even line. Lots of upside to go.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:11 | 2305220 kill switch
Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:28 | 2305249 Theos
Theos's picture

My take away is "buy the fucking crater"?

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:32 | 2305255 MikeMcGspot
MikeMcGspot's picture

 

"I" am an individual at a point of hope with a view that as the collective "We" in the rich world descend down the rollercoaster drop of a major cultural and financial system state transition, many unhealthy patterns of life will self correct.

I hope that Healthcare problems such as the dramatically rising Obesity and Diabetes rates will drop.

As the price of gas goes up, perhaps more people will walk or ride bicycles.

Perhaps our collective diets will shift towards less expensive food than even greasy pink slime $1.00 burgers, etc?

Perhaps as we individuals become more closely connected to the physical world our new financial systems and society will be more tightly coupled to the same physical whereby investments of energy will have a much higher return on life support than they do now?

Wistful ruminations with a brandy and very sharp cheddar after a hard fought week.

Happy Friday Bitchez!

 

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:32 | 2305257 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

OT

Congrats ZH, Der Spiegel is quoting you:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/0,1518,824855,00.html

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:35 | 2305265 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

I can't find "incredulity" on the chart anywhere

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:35 | 2305267 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

One of the most astonishing hypocrisies of Zero Hedge is MDB.

You’re embarrassing yourself.


Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:39 | 2305275 Theos
Theos's picture

Can you explain this to someone who has no idea what you're talking about and trusts nethier ZH or CNBS?

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 19:51 | 2305291 AllTheWay
AllTheWay's picture

Shit just gets worse and worse by the nanosecond.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 20:03 | 2305311 spinone
spinone's picture

OK, back to the topic.

 

We are in denial

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 20:06 | 2305317 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture
‘Food Stamp Friday’ party

 

"A nightclub in Montgomery, Ala. is raising eyebrows by hosting a “Food Stamp Friday” party on April 6 that seems to glamorize life on the federal government’s food assistance program.

An invitation for the April 6 party obtained by The Daily Caller tells patrons of the Rose Supper Club in North Montgomery that the Friday night cover charge will be just $5 if a “food stamp card” is shown upon arrival.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) was designed for Americans living at near-poverty levels."

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/03/30/alabama-nightclub-raises-eyebrows-with-food-stamp-friday-party/#ixzz1qeUXV100
Sun, 04/01/2012 - 09:29 | 2307473 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

The new SNAP:  Supplemental Nightclub Assistance Program.

Nice.....

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 20:09 | 2305320 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

On the chart, we are between Hope and Relief.  That means we have plenty more up to go.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 20:14 | 2305329 non_anon
non_anon's picture

since the fall of mankind, human nature has not changed one iota over the span of time

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 20:28 | 2305362 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Is anyone aware of a new luxury cruise line scheduled to embark it's maden voyage, filled with progressive/central planning passengers?

/sarc

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 21:15 | 2305436 HD
HD's picture

It travels near, far...wherever you are. I believe that the debt will go on.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 21:17 | 2305432 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Other than pysical gold, do you folks think ANY equities/bonds will actually go UP in the the crash?  WHICH? A very few get very very rich during the actual crashing - doing what? For ex, will S&P short ETF's go way way up in a crash?  Will people rush for the few ETF's and other short instruments that would actually be rising?

 

 

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 22:43 | 2305473 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

http://rt.com/politics/nato-ukraine-missile-defense-835/

NATO eyes deploying AMD in Ukraine

The North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is holding talks with Kiev over Ukraine’s possible participation in the alliance's planned missile defense system n Europe.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/03/30/2012033001312.html

China Nervous About U.S.-Led Missile Defense System

China is growing nervous after U.S. calls for an Asia-wide missile-defense system against the threat of North Korean intercontinental ballistic missiles.

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/243571-FDA-Deletes-1-Million-Signature...

FDA Deletes 1 Million Signatures for GMO Labeling Campaign

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-03-30/news/os-george-zimmerman-...

Al Sharpton: Civil disobedience will escalate if Zimmerman remains free

If George Zimmerman is not arrested in the shooting death of Trayvon Martin soon, theRev. Al Sharpton will call for an escalation in peaceful civil disobedience and economic sanctions.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-israel-s-mossad-sca...

Report: Israel's Mossad scales back covert operations in Iran

The report further states that according to one official, the reductions have caused “increasing dissatisfaction” inside the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency.

Uh oh?

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 22:49 | 2305483 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

MBD out did it's ALGO, this time! Slewie and cdad, watch those China CPI numbers @ 02:00 GMT. The aud is resting on that trendline again.

  Who in the ( HELL) would be buying eur & gbp into the Q-1 close? Hint Hint  ) T-notes(  Have a great weekend Fellas!

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 23:06 | 2305532 EHM
EHM's picture

.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 23:20 | 2305584 jomama
jomama's picture

but, but these days we have algorithms that stabilize our modern day markets!

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 23:59 | 2305683 knowless
Sat, 03/31/2012 - 07:31 | 2305687 Griffin
Griffin's picture

I think this bubble/crash cycle is different from what we usually see. It is quite large and is to some degree designed to make permanent changes, like federal Europe for example.

The sheeple emotions dotted line is somewhat different than usual. In Iceland there was lots of optimism during the boom years when the great economic wonder was at its best, people believed the bankers when they said there was no need to think about the traditional parts of the economy, like fishing and farming etc.

Then the whole house of cards crashed and the people were in denial, the politicians said it was very important to get the bankers to help the state solve the problems as they were experts in the field. Bankers were seen running in and out of state buildings where they met with their politicians to try to negotiate bailout money among other things. They did manage to steal at least 2 bn euros, the entire currency reserves of the Central bank, leaving it bankrupt.

Soon people started realising the magitude of the problem, the PM was on TV in a special broadcast saing the country could face national bankruptcy. The next stage was anger

The bankers, politicans and connected morons, like the chamber of commerce and advisors of all sorts were busy "saving" valuable assets and viable companies into "investment vehicles" that would later be privatised.

Then came a interesting twist, Landsbanki bank had collected a few billion pounds of British and Dutch savings on accounts known as Icesave, this caused a dispute between Iceland and those countries as demands were made that the Icelandic state would provide a state guarantee to repay those funds, promtly liberated from the failed pivately owned bank by owners and special friends.

The Icelandic Govt refused so Gordon Brown used terrorist laws to freeze LB assets and said on BBC that Britain was freezing the assets of Icelandic companies where possible, resulting in all busines between Iceland and the world to stop.

This could have resulted in the Govt being the defenders of Iceland against the evil UK and NL, but that did not happen, Gordon Brown got all the hate and the public demanded the resignation of the govt and all 3 Central bank governors. Soon people were starting fires, attacking buildings and cars where politicians were likely to be found, this escalated until the country was on the verge of civil war and the politicians had asked Denmark to lend equipment like armored cars to Iceland, whitch they did.

The first politicians started loosing their nerve and one resigned, ending the coalition govt and stopping the riots.

A new coalition was formed, soon it became clear that all IMF assistance would be connected to a deal on Icesave, a commitee was formed, led by a idiot who got his education in East Germany and worked for Stazi many yeas ago. Shortly after a "glorious deal" was anounced, one that was kept a secret.

Wikileaks leaked it on the internet and according to it Iceland would forfit its sovereign rights and accept that all assets belonging to the state could be used as collateral, Iceland would assume full responsibility of this debt, pay considerable interests and UK and NL would get a part of the failed private banks assets. 

There were major protests and the president refused to sign this into law, unless amendments would be made to it, they were and the UK and NL demanded a new deal. That one was sent to a referendum where it was burned by the people, over 90% said no.

A professional negotiator was hired and icesave III was made, it was also sent to a referendum and shot down.

This brings us to the current status, all trust in politicans and the system is gone, its damaged beond repair.

What is going on now is a lot of legal disputes between people and banks, where the banks have found that its very hard to defend fraud in a court of law, resulting in hundreds of billions of ISK repaid to a large number of people.

Things are looking much better economy vise, but that is not enough, there is a demand for accountability and no one is forgiving or forgeting anything.

I would say this crisis is just starting.

 

 

 

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 00:09 | 2305707 bshirley1968
bshirley1968's picture

Obviously we are in "denail" and about to head into panic in about 3 months.  Gas breaches $5 and we have pandamonia and chaos.  Everyone in the political world and the media are still saying things are getting better but the data has rolled over and they know it is becoming a tougher sell with each passing day.  We simply cannot buy enough shit to maintain the altitude of this economy.  We have hit the wall of consumption and the party is living on borrowed funds.  I LMAO everytime I hear someone saying, "We have got to have some growth to really turn things around."  Growth?  Those days are OVER for now.  This week we learned that 50% of US households have an Apple product.  That is market SATURATION!  Housing=saturation.  Auto=saturation.  Technogadgets=saturation.  The only thing left for them is to find ways to make us have to spend money, can you say ObamaCare?  The show Storage Wars should have been a dead give away that the party has been over for some time.  When people have to spend money to store all the shit they can't keep at their primary residence and then just walk away because they don't need it, want it, or forgot it.  We have way too much shit in this country and don't want to buy more.  Denial, people, and panic is right around the corner.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 11:45 | 2307605 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

But ... But ... But we can sell all of our Apple iShit to the burgeoning Chinese middle class. What, those things are made in China? Wonder how long before the Chinese cut out the iMiddle-man.

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 00:47 | 2305776 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Quimsical Thought Tyler?  No? bad idea ,. Yuck,.

   A " Remedial Thesaurus"?                               They did come!

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 01:03 | 2305790 nah
nah's picture

i guess risk sux

.

who cares

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 01:45 | 2305833 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

was that movie clip Muppets 6 or 7 ??  are we up to 53 now?

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 02:21 | 2305871 NFisher
NFisher's picture

let's party like it's 1929!

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 03:04 | 2305893 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

" Bi Planes" and "Mustard Gas" it is!    In the  TRENCHES!

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 03:32 | 2305905 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I'm free! Thanks Tyler!

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 03:50 | 2305908 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Global Debt Crisis

The greatest private fraud of human history.
Who are the great fraudsters who are becoming the murderers of the human kind? How does the economy "illness" threaten Democracy and the freedom of people?

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
---------------------------------
By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 04:10 | 2305921 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

 

Dimon said this week that only housing prices are down but the rest is flashing green.

 

So dumm Muppets, why are you not buying? Where is your confidence?

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 04:10 | 2305922 schizoid
schizoid's picture

This is my favorite blast from the past:

http://tinyurl.com/c3euonx

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 04:42 | 2305937 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This one, is for you  SHEEP DOG!~ I never quit!

 

                 http://www.forexpros.com/commodities/real-time-futures

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 04:48 | 2305938 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  i'M SOO TIRED OF READING CHARTS!

  That little buggar, is so sublime!

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 05:14 | 2305953 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

Interesting piece of arcane history.But what is your point? Now in the age of algobot trading? I can understand that finding NO bidder at all may have been a discomforting experience. However there will now always be a lot of bids .Although the bidders will sell a nanosecond later. So what is your point? If a traditional could happen it would have happened already.

The only thing that will be roadblock are scientific facts. So far no one has been able to beat the speed of light.Not even the neutrino...The algotrading will get a hot stop only at speed of light.

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 06:21 | 2305974 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

There is a difference between the Morgan's of the world in the 1920's and the Fed today.  The Fed can keep printing money thus propping up the banks and the market.

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 10:44 | 2306187 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

They could have printed in 1929- to an extent anyeway  -they wanted the crash. The question is when do they want to crash the economy this time? Before or after we start WW3.

Sun, 04/01/2012 - 09:19 | 2307468 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

I would guess commensurate with the war.  I have heard that it is important to pay little attention to the stock market and watch the "health" of the derivatives market.  When it begins to crack, hold on to your hats!  

My question is:  How does one monitor the derivatives market?  Is this possible?

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 08:12 | 2306049 Griffin
Griffin's picture

I would be very cautious believeing any propaganda related to economic recovery.

Some optimism is often injected into the sheeple world to create a mini bubble just before things get worse, to help transfere wealth from the middle class to the elite. Its like milking the economy to make the sheeple more easy to control.

This article was published by Barron's on July 14 2008.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121581623724947273.html#articleTabs_article%3D1

And this one by the same author in the same magazine March 19 2012.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904797004577281453828447714.html#articleTabs_article%3D1

 

I think it would be a good idea to look out for recycled bullshit, dont believe everything you read. 

 

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 11:04 | 2306201 Grey-Ghost
Grey-Ghost's picture

The Financial Crime Cartel is much more smarter today - CBOE did not exsit in 1929 and today they have hedged their options. So if the market plummets - not quite sure it would for the computers would sell until the pre-programmed buy orders kick in. They'd have the $$ to buy for selling puts (not to mention zillion other instruments) they own will provide the money, so some hectic, insane volatility is more probable option.

The money is now just a tool - a very rafined tool, a weapon of mass destruction; a tool / weapon protected by the mighty military machine - that serves the rulers to loot the sheeple and they know how to use this tool. While I'd like them go in smoke, I doubt it would happen soon.

Whatever "sell" shows up on the ticker, Ben & Co. would have enabled The Financial Crime Cartel, all over again, to get, virtually in seconds, a limitless amount of $$ (just numbers scattered throghout the bunch of computers) from the Fed, for the purpose of "buy". And that in addition to all the money they'd get from selling puts. (and all other "instruments" of fraud)

Nothing like this have ever existed before. So this time the disaster would come more slowly - a famine all over the world due to the Financial Crime Cartel's induced food prices; a continued destruction of the economy at home; forever wars; a Gestapo / STASi like police state but all that with a sugar on top (read - we'd kill brown people far far away from home; we'd imprison and torture Muslims at home...) that would keep this, the most repulsive of them all, nation at bay, obese, stupified and content.

To "hope" for 1929 based on some charts and to disregard the new financial fascist reality is like waiting for Santa Claus to come and deliver us from evil. It wil not happen - the evil are us.

Sat, 03/31/2012 - 13:57 | 2306515 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture
http://www.shadowstats.com/commentaries No. 426: Economic Update: Mired in A Protracted Downturn March, 30th, 2012
• GNP Growth at 1.8% versus 3.0% GDP
• Real Durable Goods Orders 10% Below Levels Seen in 2000
• Shenanigans in Industrial Production Benchmark Masked Small Downside Revisions to Recent Activity
• Recession Deeper than Previously Estimated No. 425: February Housing Starts, New and Existing Home Sales March, 23rd, 2012

• Activity in Housing and Construction Remains Stagnant Near Historic Lows No. 424: February CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production March, 16th, 2012

• February CPI Was Shy of Reflecting Full Impact of Gasoline Prices
• February’s Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales Monthly Gain Was Not Statistically Meaningful
• Volatile Monthly Production Numbers Sputtered And Stalled Once Again Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update March, 15th, 2012
No. 423: February Retail Sales March, 13th, 2012
• Rising Prices Largely Accounted for February Retail Sales Gain No. 422: February Employment, Unemployment and M3, January Trade Balance March, 9th, 2012
• Payrolls Regain Pre-2001 (Not Pre-2007) Recession Levels
• February Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 14.9% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Trade Deficit Deteriorates in January Reporting and Prior-Period Revisions
• Money Supply M3 Growth Stalls Anew No. 421: GDP Revision, January PCE Deflator and Durable Goods Orders March, 1st, 2012
• GDP Revision Was Little More than Statistical Noise, Yet 4th-Quarter No Longer Is Comparable with Prior Periods
• Income Revised to Show Ongoing Surging Salaries and Wages of “Unknown” Nature
• Fed’s Inflation Target (PCE Deflator) Is A Poorly Regurgitated CPI Measure
• Durable Goods Orders Fell Net of Plunging Aircraft Orders No. 420: Monetary Base, January Home Sales February, 24th, 2012
• Monetary Base Surge to Record High Suggests Intensifying Systemic-Solvency Crisis
• January Home Sales Numbers Continued Bottom-Bouncing
• Unstable Seasonal Adjustments in Existing Home Sales? No. 419: January CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales and Housing Starts February, 17th, 2012
• Annual “Core” Inflation Rose for 15th Straight Month
• Year-to-Year January Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Headline CPI and PPI Inflation Rates Understated Due to Unstable Seasonal Factors Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update February, 17th, 2012
Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update February, 17th, 2012
No. 418: January Retail Sales and Industrial Production February, 15th, 2012
• Retail Sales “Growth” Remains Statistically Insignificant and Reliant on Price Increases
• Slowing Annual Growth Evident in Both Sales and Production No. 417: December 2011 and Annual Trade Deficit February, 10th, 2012
• Annual Trade Deficit Widened to $558 Billion in 2011, from $500 Billion in 2010, A Negative for Both the U.S. Dollar and the U.S. Economy
• Trade Could Pressure GDP Revision to Downside
• More Jobs Lost to NAFTA No. 416: Payrolls, Unemployment and Revisions, M3, PCE Deflator February, 3rd, 2012
• Basic Economic Outlook Unaltered by Stronger Labor Data
• January Jobs Reading Still at Levels of 11 Years Ago
• January Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 15.1% (U.6), 22.5% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Growth Is Picking Up No. 415: Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods and Home Sales January, 27th, 2012
• Net of Involuntary Inventory Build-Up, GDP Growth Was 0.8% Instead of 2.8%
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Still Show Stagnation
• Fed’s New PCE Inflation Target Is Inconsistent with Plans for Ongoing Easing No. 414: Hyperinflation Special Report 2012 January, 25th, 2012
• U.S. Hyperinflationary Great Depression Moves Ever Closer
• U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Effectively Have Destroyed Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar
• Systemic-Solvency and Economic Crises Have Not Abated
• Precursors to Ultimate Dollar Disaster Are in Place; 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same No. 413: December CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales January, 19th, 2012
• Patterns of Slowing Growth Have Re-Emerged
• Inflation from High Oil Prices Still Impacting Broad Economy

• 2011 Average Annual Consumer Inflation: 3.2% (CPI-U), 3.6% (CPI-W), 10.7% (SGS)
• 2011 Average Annual Wholesale Inflation: 6.1% (PPI)
• Perils of Poor-Quality Inflation Data and Bad Assumptions No. 412: December Retail Sales, November Trade Balance January, 13th, 2012
• Make-or-Break Month for Retailers Was Flat-to-Minus, Both Before and Likely After Adjustment for Inflation
• Worse-Than-Expected Retail Sales and Trade Data Should Dampen 4th-Quarter GDP Growth Outlook No. 411: December Employment and Unemployment January, 6th, 2012
• Seasonal-Adjustment Problems Spiked Jobs Growth, Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions Artificially Lowered Unemployment Rates
• December Jobs Reading Remained Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• December Unemployment: 8.5% (U.3), 15.2% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Tops 3.0% for First Time in 28 Months FLASH UPDATE: December Payroll Seasonal-Adjustment Problem January, 6th, 2012
• Seasonal-Adjustment Problem Inflated December’s 200,000 Payroll Gain by 42,000

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