"This Time Will Not Be Different": Interactive Chart Of Market Reactions To All Prior 2011 Eurozone Summits And Meetings

Tyler Durden's picture

Looking at this Friday's nth European summit, one could be forgiven to forget that so far in 2011 there have been no less than 10 Eurozone finance minister meetings and summits. TEN. And courtesy of Reuters we have an annotated overlay of the MSCI Eurozone bank index' performance so far in 2011. Unfortunately, one quick glance at the chart leads us to two very sad conclusions: i) the time will not be different, and ii) a "favorable" market response will require an hourly barrage of FT/Guardian/La Stampa/Nikkei rumors just to get the ES green, if only for a few minutes. So without further ado, here is the interactive annotated superimposed analysis showing the Eurozone historical meetings/summits and the reaction in bank stocks, Greek and Italian bonds, and the all important Euro.

Chart: Reuters

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philipat's picture

The food is very good?

PS Technical Report - Still bullish but overbought = Blank Page. Or perhaps that's why their predictions have been so accurate ;-)

Chris Jusset's picture

"So far in 2011 there have been no less than 10 Eurozone finance minister meetings and summits. TEN."


This is just CRAZY ... utter madness !!!

tom a taxpayer's picture

EU confidence builder: Herman Van Rompuy's middle name is Achille.


TruthInSunshine's picture

Japan & Australian economic data show major suckage of wind.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) retreated 1.1 percent after machinery orders fell 6.9 percent in October from September, missing the median forecast of a 0.5 percent gain by 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Australia's property bubble is teetering towards the cliff:

Australia’s employers cut 6,300 (-) workers in November from the previous month, missing the 10,000 (+) extra jobs forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists.


Asia Stocks Fall Ahead of European Debt Summit 

Bloomberg - 9 minutes ago

Oh regional Indian's picture

Of course Asia stox fall. How else to milk the non-insiders with news and rumors of news?

Summits, cheaper by the dozen. Used to be that a Summit was like a climax, meant something. Now, it's just a big circle-jerk.

And I think an overlay of the Bombing Index would add additional granularity to this chart. 

And Mercury is retrograde till the 14th anyways, so expect a lot of crossed connections. No conclusions, just more of the same. 



Fish Gone Bad's picture

I am pretty sure this time will be different.  My definition of "time" is whatever it needs to be to prove me right.  Likewise with my definition of "different".



Cast Iron Skillet's picture

it depends what your definition of "is" is

Michael's picture

The Only Hope for the European Union is for its people to adopt in its entirety, the US Constitution, immediately!
The countries in Europe would be relegated to statehood status, but they will retain all rights not given exclusively to their federal government. Let me tell ya, that's still a lot of rights the states retain.
By the way, a private Federal Reserve is still un-constitutional in the European package, as are income taxes, just like in the USA.

Taint Boil's picture

deleted - my best post yet

Robslob's picture



It's all Greek to me?


Wait...priced in.

ReallySparky's picture

Had to give you a green. I too am so Europed OUT!

philipat's picture

Why can't Germany just make a decision. Bailout or PULL out?

Fish Gone Bad's picture

That is not how politics work.  A decision will actually be really bad.  The game here is to kick the proverbial can down the road as long as it is possible.  Making a decision will let everyone know that the leaders have no clothes and the markets will get sacked.  Kicking the can allows one to potentially make this someone elses problem.  That is the nature of politics.

SemperFord's picture

Agreed, I ALWAYS pull out!

cat2's picture

indeed, can we just assume neverending risk on, risk off nonsense until the end of time and stop it with the EU already

Leraconteur's picture

It is this inability to commit, to make a decision and have it stick, that is that major insight here. Europe STILL, decades later, cannot agree to anything, commit to anything, other that chaos, discord and disagreement.

It doesn't matter what the EFSF does, whether Germany decides to monetize, tax all the rest of the EU, print D-marks, form a core EU, bailout or not, lever up or not - it's the chronic indecisiveness that is the generational take-away from this entire debacle.

Why anyone ever looked up to modern European values, is beyond me.

Unprepared's picture

Look the other way, Fukker

fonzanoon's picture

Is there anyone else out there who feels that if a major bank failed it could set off a chain reatcion that could take down the market big time. But knowing that, "they" will just not let a major bank fail? They will lie cheat and steal their way to keeping the balls in the air. Can someone convince me otherwise?

johnnynaps's picture

Nah, MF Global failed with rumors of Jefferies and BAC on the verge along with AMR and here we are today up the last 3 weeks.

fonzanoon's picture

People are just too stupid. I have hard working friends who really think they should start giving the banks a break.  How fantastic is that? When was the last time you got robbed and had the shit kicked out of you and you chased the robber down to give him your watch. People are stupid. This will go on. We can get excited about meetings and possible breakdowns and whatever. They have all the pieces in place to prevent the big event. It's the whole frog in warm water analogy.

Manthong's picture

When money doesn't mean anything to the power elite who can just shuffle electrons, this is one way to prevent a bank failure.

Seems like a superb Ponzi maneuver to me.

I'm surprised it didn't warrant it's own thread.


DeadFred's picture

This is a well known psychological phenomenon.


It's even European though not EU.

sof_hannibal's picture

but MF global was classified as a financial derivatives broker, not necessarily a bank in the purest sense. not that it matters anymore in today's world, just sayin' though

sof_hannibal's picture

plus one. It would appear that since Lehman, the powers that be will not let it happen again. They have at least convinced themselves they have a green light to do whatever it takes. So, the question is what would make them run out of the magic tricks? As debt delevers they must print. What other options are there realistically-- if they print the mess continues if they don't the system implodes. Buy gold and "small caliber" weapons...

DavidC's picture

Very true - even if it means taking the economy down and screwing the people into the ground - but at least they won't have another Lehman.


Corn1945's picture

Why are we in this mess to begin with if these people have so much power?


HurricaneSeason's picture

Mostly to bring on austerity and higher taxes. People wouldn't agree to suffer unless it was really really necessary.

macholatte's picture

Why are we in this mess to begin with if these people have so much power?


We are in this mess BECAUSE those people have so much power.

macholatte's picture

 Stupid is as Stupid does.

--Forest Gump 


"Several partners have not yet understood the gravity of the situation" facing the EU, the source said.

Germany dampens hopes as France warns of euro 'explosion'




“Germany will not let itself to be impressed by the day-to-day and very short-lived judgment of a single ratings agency.”

German Politician: Euro Downgrade Is an American Plot


sof_hannibal's picture

it's all geared to maintain the status quo; regardless of it making sense or not.

sof_hannibal's picture

it's all geared to maintain the status quo; regardless of it making sense or not.

AmazingLarry's picture

You ever take it off any sweet jumps?

blunderdog's picture

Dude, you got like ten feet of air!

sof_hannibal's picture

totally predicatable.

paul_Liu's picture

so the bank stocks were on top when the announcement?

junkyardjack's picture

I'm already pricing in next week's meeting that hasn't been announced yet.  I'm thinking the market is going to be quite happy with thoughts about the results of that one after they get very disappointed with the results of this week's.

TheLooza's picture

took an respectable IWM put position today at close.  Glad to see that i appear to have positioned myself correctly based on precedent.  I just find it odd that the correct position is errily similar in appearance to that of someone waiting to take it doggystyle.

paul_Liu's picture

put already? tomorrow will be up again

fonzanoon's picture

Good luck with the IWM put. From someone who is getting mauled on a short I wish you luck. That being said you ever go to A.C and play roulette? You see black come up 5 times in a row so you bet red. You lose. You wait. Black comes up again and again and again. so after 9 times in a row you go in hard on red. You lose. Now you are pissed so you put the rest down and black comes up again. You hit the ATM and hit the bar. That is what this is like. Maybe i am the only asshole who has done this.

Mentaliusanything's picture

Its called "betting scared" and no it has happened to me until a nice very wealthy chinese man told me the secret

Never bet scared, go in hard knowing your going to rip the heart out of the beast.

Then you win


TheLooza's picture

dude.  Every gambler and day trader in the world has gone on tilt like that. 


I took the position though because I didn't want to.  Got to be willing to stand tight in the pocket.  Also need to know when to throw it away.  fuck me with all these stupid sports metaphors.

fonzanoon's picture

ha funny shit. Without metaphors we are just stupid people doing stupid things. Metaphors give us something to relate to. Stay with them.

RoadKill's picture

I think of the market as a roulette wheel except every time red comes up, the chance of black coming up next goes up a bit.

So after red comes up 8 times out of 10 I bet a bit on black. If red comes up 8 of 10 times again, I double down. The key is not to bet so much at once that you can't double down several times.

It's not a perfect analogy - except for this.

Never accept the free drinks if you are trying to win. And always bet the opposite of he guy that claims to be an expert (CNBC).

Ragnar24's picture

Exactly.  Roulette is a terrible analogy because there is zero causation from one spin to the next.

Equities, on the other hand, cannot go up indefinitely, so each day these dumbass bulls push it higher (based on nothing but a recycled rumor) there is actually a greater probability tomorrow will be down... and because this "casino" has this feature, you can actually continue to double down (as long as you started with a small enough bet to keep it up for a couple weeks!).

you enjoy myself's picture

tell that to october.  or for that matter, march '09 to may '10.

DeadFred's picture

"Maybe i am the only asshole who has done this."

LOL, not by a long shot, not by a long shot.