Timeline Of Fiscal Catalysts In The Second Half Of 2011 And After

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Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:28 | 1554977 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

Steps to properly embalm a corpse.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:36 | 1556392 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

That's morbid. Good embalmers can bring life-like thrills at the wake, like what we will see with the Dollar:

http://www.primerahora.com/velan_muerto_en_motora_en_hato_rey_(ve_video)-383502.html

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:29 | 1554983 narnia
narnia's picture

You forgot at least one planned emergency before the end of the year that will require swift and bold fiscal handouts.  

These clowns have to raise a lot of money before the 2012 election cycle.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:37 | 1555021 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Paul Krugman now actually saying we need more inflation:

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/12/krugman-calls-for-more-riots/ 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:29 | 1554987 GiantWang
GiantWang's picture

This is crazy.  How much time and wasted effort to accomplish nothing?  And how can the dollar ever collapse when any other currency exists?  I mean, if the dollar is the least bad option, then it should eventually go through the roof, right?

So why is the worry about hyperinflation and the Fed printing?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:47 | 1555051 DeweyLeon
DeweyLeon's picture

Interesting, just as it would've been hard for my great-grandfather to believe gas would ever cost $3.50 or Gold worth $2,000. It will be hard for my great-grandchildren to believe a loaf of bread was ever less than $100 or that gold was able to be bought by average men.

The dollar just keeps falling without ever failing because it will never be the worst option in a world awash with paper.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:41 | 1556188 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Just like I'm sure 50 years ago the Italians could not imagine that today 1000 Lira = $0.75.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:43 | 1555285 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

The issues are this:

1) The deficit projections are expecting far better GDP than exists.  This is going to smack tax revenue, and the uptick in unemployment will do the same.  This is EVERYWHERE.

2) The downtick in Brent, that is recovering this week, should goose results for a week or two.  It might make August revenues look better than they should.

3) There Is No Money To Pay The 120 Billion dollars the Social Security Payroll PREMIUM (it's premium on an insurance policy, not a tax) Reduction Costs.  It Must Expire.

4) For all other programs proposed, see item #3.  There Is No Money To Pay For Anything.  (If you pretend there is, you will exhaust the debt ceiling pre election day)

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:30 | 1554994 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And coming around the final turn, QE3 is in the lead, but losing steam.  Buying Opportunity is now riderless but in second.  Global Growth Story is now lagging badly...and coming up from the rear...Mutual Fund Redemption.

Mutual Fund Redemption is driving hard....

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:40 | 1555031 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All glue horses, but I like ZIRP the best, swayback nag but can really put a move on with a generous pre-race injection of Hopium.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:43 | 1555043 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

you guys are funny. as in ha ha, i mean. not the other kind of funny.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 21:29 | 1556164 The Man in Room Five
The Man in Room Five's picture

Not funny 'ha-ha', funny queer.

I picked up the Kaiser blade... some folks called it a sling blade. I called it a Kaiser blade

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:47 | 1555066 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I think ZIRP the Magic Horse is running in the next race, dog.  Two year recession, baby...brought to you by the Federal Reserve Bank.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:49 | 1555081 SheepDog-One
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Recession within the overall greatest depression. But the banksters and CNBC Clownhorn anchors are doing great and having lots of fun at their caviar stuffed lobster lunches, so all is well.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:01 | 1555113 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yep...the script for today at the BlowHorn...all is well.  If that does not cause you to sell equities...nothing will...except for another 20% plunge.

Mutual Fund Redemption being patient...holding back behind the leader...and now in the final stretch...

**Shocker Alert!  Maria Bartiromo has lined up a bull/bull/bull debate for the final hour of the market.  Who would have guessed?**

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:33 | 1555007 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The US should just buy it's gold back with that 2.8 trillion and default.

The EU should just do something just like it, and default.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:35 | 1555016 RobD
RobD's picture

So if the EUC expires then all those on EUC get removed from the UI percentage correct? Cool, what would that put us at sub 8%? Wow I feel better now.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:52 | 1555094 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just stop sending all checks to the millions of unemployed and VOILA! 0% unemployment in USSAA+.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:38 | 1555027 Cow
Cow's picture

This is all a big circle jerk.  The default scenario where nobody agrees is to get 50% of the reductions from defense and a 50% from Medicare.  Look for the Dems to stall this thing out.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:41 | 1555034 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Seemingly endless game of musical chairs, and the song playing really sucks but just wont stop.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:41 | 1555032 Larry Darrell
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Since the official debt is already 14.602 trillion, and the debt ceiling was only raised 400 billion to 14.694 trillion, someone please explain to me how they won't hit the ceiling again by the end of September at the latest, long before the Super-dee-duper congress even proposes the next round of "cuts" in November.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:46 | 1555056 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Even better, wait till the retirees, pensioners, social security and food stamp recipients hear where Uber Congrezz made the cuts to!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 02:58 | 1556608 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Can gramps even lift a pitchfork these days?  How about putting a washtub (with holes cut in it for vision and a shotgun) over the Hoveround™ and making like a tank?  Congress is in sooo much trouble! :>D

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:26 | 1555447 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

owebama has an extra 500 B all hs has to do is say he wants to use it.

 

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:41 | 1555033 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

Totally off-topic (well not really):

Where do the silver mavens buy thier phyz?

TIA

fyre

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:44 | 1555048 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whats a maven?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:47 | 1555062 fyrebird
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Someone who is really into it. First-adopters. Cheerleaders.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:54 | 1555105 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well I buy my silver from a local coin dealer. Often gives me a good deal, like on a bunch of junk silver he gave me a real cheap deal on, old beat up dimes.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:36 | 1555042 fuu
fuu's picture

.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:53 | 1555096 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

QE3 is required to fund the Federal deficit, because no one in the world has the money to buy 1.5 trillion in new debt every year. And that is just the United States Federal Government! QE to infinity is inescapable. They have no choice now. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:55 | 1555112 SheepDog-One
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Right, basically we're now in a situation where $3+ trillion QE's twice a year are just part of normal economic policy now.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:53 | 1555103 kito
kito's picture

so stocks are rallying, he has said NO to qe3 for now, retail sales havent fallen off a cliff.......how long can a lack of monetary expansion/balance sheet growth be maintained without heading into a deflationary depression? could it be the austrians have overplayed the importance of the keynesian printing presses in masking stability? 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:56 | 1555118 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, bankers and CNBC clownhorn anchors are doing fine, so all is well!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:12 | 1555184 kito
kito's picture

not much of an answer sheepie. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:18 | 1555194 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well allow me to expand on that then, sure all is well with the 'stock rally', as long as the present 15 year market average we're at impresses you, and you dont mind the all time record high unemployment, bankruptcies, foreclosures, % of people on food stamps....yea other than that WOW all is well! Like you say, as long as the printing presses can paper over the underlying collapse to benefit a few 'important people' yep its all good.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:28 | 1555244 kito
kito's picture

sheepie, im not sure you even read my question. i didnt "say", i inquired as to how its possible, when monetary expansion by the fed is supposed to be the recourse to mask the ills, that the country's ills are still being masked without a flood of liquidity. clearly there is no sharp deflationary spiral downward taking place, which is what we would expect after the presses shut. we would expect more than malaise, which is what we have now. and your quips are lacking any intellectual insight that could assist me with my question.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:42 | 1555279 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

The ills of the USA are being masked by the greater ills of the Eurozone.

That could go on for a while, as long as it does the old money in Europe will retire to the New World as a relative safe-haven.

This has always been a race to the bottom. Always. The US might have won that one, until the next shoe drops anyway.

Don't know what that portends for the future. Being the least of the dead is still some flavor of decay.

fyre

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:56 | 1555342 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, you asked 'how long can it last'...well thats the big question indeed, smartass. Gee well sorry Im not 'intellectual' enough to answer your question about how long can fantasyland go on for...a week? A month? What was the answer you were looking for?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:14 | 1555406 kito
kito's picture

how long can a lack of monetary expansion/balance sheet growth be maintained without heading into a deflationary depression?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:22 | 1555435 d00daa
d00daa's picture

what the hell are you talking about??  same as 2010, qe ends, market takes a couple of months to sputter, then crashes, driving liquidity into us debt, bad data starts coming in, confirming the slow down, etc etc.

you want an exact timeframe??  really??  anyone that gives you an answer other than "i have no fucking clue" is lying.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:35 | 1555459 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

same as it always was---- ignore marks to fantasy ---- same as it ever was.

 

If a collapse happened to a phoney mark did it really collapse?

 

There is no doubt that the big banks are marked to fantasy - why does nobody run in and buy them if they are such a great deal?

Because they and other biz are a box of SHIT that's why.

 

Why are not "big money on the sidelines" beating down the door at Fanny/freddy and Bernake's hole to buy up all that cheap crap they have in the basement?

 

Becuase it's SHIT in a box dressed up to look like choc cherry treats.

 

Kito ---- why the heck don't you own it all now!????

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:23 | 1555226 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I'm sure the fed will have some program to prop things up and soon.

All the ducks lining up. Banks going out there way to say all is well, banning short selling, huge daily marker swings.

Once hints are dropped for qe3 the months in-between the release, all bad news will be good as it means a larger package.

But as the us markets have are junkies for fed money, I'd expect over a trillion.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:25 | 1555233 FLIP THAT BOND
FLIP THAT BOND's picture

Nope, more bond purchases must eventually be made in order to keep rates from rising.  I think it's almost impossible to go more than 2 months without more QE.  Stocks should sell off here which should drive rates even lower, cause that deflationary scare and give a great excuse for QE3.  My target was Aug. 26 with Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, but the market must sell off more before QE3 and with the bounce in the market the last few days, I'm not sure if it will sell off enough before Aug. 26. Also, the morning before Bernanke's speech a revision of Q2 GDP comes out and if it's anywhere in line with Q1 GDP, it should give Bernanke terrific ammo for QE3 (if stocks have come down by then).

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:15 | 1555409 d00daa
d00daa's picture

"so stocks are rallying..."  lolwut???

i know you're just itching for a reason to go back to full-on bulltard mode around here kito, but there's no need to just make shit up.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 16:40 | 1555510 karzai_luver
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what is your baseline for retail sales off a cliff?

 

You do have a number for that correct?

 

Do you think outside of a large rock impact they will fall to nothing?

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:06 | 1555163 GiantWang
GiantWang's picture

And the Dow could land at 25,000 but the dollar representation buy less than it does at Dow 11,000?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:20 | 1555212 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and people in this country are so dumbed down they equate a stock market number to 'all is well', so while gas and food doubles in price the TV will be saying how great everything is because look at how high stocks are.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:14 | 1555195 Cognition
Cognition's picture

They forgot to mention one, just like in 1939 when deflation hits and you can't inflat (since everyone knows by now that QE does not work) then start more wars.  Israel and Iran, US and just about any nation that it does not control thru a Central Bank!!

 

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