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Today's Black Gold Swan - Presenting The Reason Why The CME's Crude Market Was Halted For Over One Hour
Earlier today, we reported on the extended halt of the CME Globex crude market, which following an errant trading pattern, did not quite crash, but did the next best thing - go offline for a full 75 minutes. Why did this happen? Our initial speculation was that this "may have been an algo gone berserk in advance of what may or may not have been a block order.... Someone take quote stuffing a little too far today?" It turns out we were not too far off. Below is Nanex visualization of just what occurred in those seconds between 13:59:57 and 14:04:55 when "a blast of quotes corrupted a memory queue causing the software to believe the queue was full all the time." In other words just under two years after the May 2010 flash crash, another algo may have been the reason for the halt in one of the world's most important markets. At least this time there was no 10% "correction." How long until there is, and when it does happen again, will it be limited to just 10%? Oh, and whatever you do, most certainly don't expect this little incident to be brought up ever again by those in control, for any precautionary measure to be taken, or for the SEC to ever get involved. Any of those three would immediately imply something is very wrong with the market. And that's simply not allowed.
From Nanex:
NYMEX Black Swan ~ The March 2012 Crude Oil Futures Quote Loop
On February 13, 2012, starting 13:59:57, quotes for crude oil began queuing. At 14:00:35, all of the queued quotes were sent at once. Again at 14:01:08 the same 38 second block of quotes sent earlier was sent again -- old timestamps and all plus a few new quotes. Again at 14:01:18, all quotes since 13:59:57 were sent again. This repeated 12 times.
From a programmers perspective, it looks like a system problem caused a blast of quotes that corrupted a memory queue causing the software to believe the queue was full all the time.
Tick chart of bid prices (red) along with quote age (blue).
Note that as the cycle repeats, it includes a few more quotes (the new quotes + those since 13:59:57). There are 500 quotes between time axis labels.
500 millisecond chart of ETF U.S. Oil Fund (USO) showing massive quote traffic as it reacts to stale futures quotes.
500 millisecond chart of ETF U.S. Oil Fund (USO) showing massive trade executions in reaction to stale futures quotes.
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Thx for the correction.
I guess it's not important any longer.
CNBC interviewed Beau Biden after the Foreclosure NO DEAL. He didn't commit to it. Nobody asked him how come there is no signed deal yet. Absolutely nobody.
I don't blame them that much. A paycheck is a paycheck.
Did you expect good software? You would think with the hyjack of the HFT that they would at least understand granularity. The oil companies would benifit from the old audtion on the conner until the exchanges cleans up the crony capitalism....... Is there any wonder the crap push on us... At least the robber barrons gave us railroads, cars and electricty..... It will be intesting to see some transparency on these PE companies. The markets have been hyjacked by forced 401 and pention programs.... IMOH this is where competion would free market up......
http://www.economist.com/node/3821814
What's the nefarious strategy that these graphs illustrate?
Bids were driven way up from the delay in the quote, until the ask satisfied the desired run-up of the HFT seller? (And DDOS attack causing quote delay is then ended)
Then on the flipside, more stock is bought on the bottom in the next interval by that same HFT agent, while latency is good, initiate DDOS, quote latency spikes, sell, end DDOS, rinse repeat?
Am i smart enough? Someone please respond :(
That queue/buffer issue, on the face of it, sounds like bull sheit. Perhaps there were some memory erros, long after the DDOS was over (milliseconds of course bitchez)
It was a beta test. The oilgarchs wanted to see a microchosm of an event like the Strait of Hormuz closing. Guess what? The price of oil increases. Imagine that.
Infinite "bots boughts" if-then loop in Pascal. :D
(gotta be some >40 systems geek that gets this)
Probably more like a GOTO: problem in ASM
The turmoil of living on a bed of lies wants to get to your psyche -- do not let it get to your psyche, and turn it to mush.
Choose truth.
This is what happens when the SEC email system is corrupted by Girls Gone Wild video's and pull a train on the CME main frame. Note the ever increasing wave, the pulsating rhythm, getting larger, hotter, wetter..oops, I just jizzed me bloats.
Jizz In My Pants
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXfHLUlZf4 (2:33)
LOL!
Yes, like that.
It's a dick in a box!
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
Anonymous explains the Illuminati protocols
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F4L6LbwHWY (15:28)
You are after all, doing business at the worlds most corrupt financial trading institution. Too busy raising slush funds for Chalky Soetero and providing cover for slime bucket Corzine. When the market does eventually crash, don't expect any protection from these asshats. Wy anybody would do business at this place simply astonishes me.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
"What a beutiful pattern. It is fortunate that Skynet has no such queues, and is 20 years ahead of the markets."
http://www.meh.ro/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/meh.ro5232.jpg
*TFS* Hellsing Ultimate Abridged Episode 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uIVkhtU1Ls (14:38)
Flash crash on the teleprompter. The president looks perplexed and pauses awkwardly. But being the consummate speaker, asks "Did I mention Warren Buffet's secretary yet?"
Speaking of GOLD,I see the PPT is hard at work with the ESF SLUSH FUND.
Fuck You specifically Ben....
Ps..get off your knees you little weasel Timmy.
And wipe your Keynesian chin off.
I need to buy PMs a few more times and Bernanke is speaking on Thursday so a two day drop is more than welcome by me!
Sure you want a drop
And when it drops further after you buy, others want a further drop.
And so on....
Till i guess someone will want silver for free !!!
LOL
Back up he truck!
The PMs may have run out of suckers.
I read this one for a 3rd time.
Now hold on. The plunge protectin team = primary dealers have managed to put a bottom on S&P so far (just so far).
Does this mean that they are trying to put a bottom on crude oil price???????
Oh my God!
Since this event is neither a surprise, nor hard to predict (rather, I bet most here would view it as having been inevitable) I feel this is misuse of the term "Black Swan". Unless the title is purely sarcastic.
CME is THE problem.
Since they are not taking action , it appears that they are in cahoots with the manipulators using HFT.
It's time the world shunned the CME.
Every day the manipulation continues , hand in hand with all Government authorities
There is no safety for one's money even when the CME brokers swindle their clients. It is CME's duty to settle their brokers dues to clients. When insurance can be taken for the ridiculous derivative swaps running into trillions through AIG etc, it appears that the CME have no interest in protecting those who use their trading platform.
Physical is the best. Else use the Hongkong Exchange
CME is as indpendent as the Fed. Which means, not at all.
Has anybody noticed it has no competitors? THE ONLY PENIS-HEAD IN TOWN?
ZH: best investigative journalism around. Correction: ONLY investigative journalism around.
Even the Squid with all its tentacles can't compete in this new version of TWISTER. Just give it fricken up already and throw somebody's white hanky onto the floor so we can end this 50% off paint and spackle sale...
Why would they give it up, theres still a shitload of individual wealth that needs extracting.
Shameful
Wait until oil hits $250 as Nomura predicts....you'll see some real twists and turns and halting and stuttering and coverups then.
He who is in love with himself has at least this advantage - he won't encounter many rivals.
Georg C. Lichtenberg
This is Obama's current mental condition. Description comes from 18th century.
This chart reminds me of the original Tacoma Narrows Bridge and its increasing oscillations until collapse.
Oh God I hit save twice the Oscillations have started! Run for the hills.
This chart reminds me of the original Tacoma Narrows Bridge and its increasing oscillations until collapse.
shaking all over:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPxmPdDQtQA
or
bend me shape me?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CVJFQkPkCg
Considering CME's relationship with MF Global and the 'vaporized' $1.2+ trillion, why would anyone not expect more fun and games in these commodity markets.
Perception is reality.
Just in! Chaos theory baby
0439 GMT [Dow Jones] The JGB market is abuzz with chatter that a buy order may have been mistakenly placed, after the Bank of Japan's surprise easing news briefly sent March JGB futures up as much as 1 yen to 143.37. "Such a big move rarely happens. It reminded investors of the U.S. flash crash in 2010," says Yusuke Ikawa, strategist at RBS Securities in Tokyo.
remember... 'a series of small coincidences usually lead to something big'
I need to interrupt this thread to SCREAM
apologies later if I'm feeling up to it.
1982 Pennies from 95% copper.
US Mint wants to abolish pennies making them legal to melt down for Copper. (Vs the Penny Copper is 3 times the value of a .. penny.)
Ah yes... a flap of a wing from a butterfly looking for that one penny in the gutter.... so goes the World.
Yo, I am done with coins, I no longer deal with them. If I buy a cuppa at Starbucks I hand them a couple of dollars and tell them to keep the change, if they raise the price the tip goes down. If I pay with cash for stuff at the store I will take paper change but instruct the cashier to put the metal change in the box for pet spaying or boob cancer or whatever.
I had a penny fall out of my pocket last year when I went to Spokane for a surgery at the VA hospital, it lodged itself inside one of the screw track mechanisms that runs the drivers seat, it derailed the up down screw and thus fucked up the whole driver side seat adjustment on my BMW, $695 to fix. Because of a fucking penny that could not buy anything anyway. That penny only cost me 69,000 times what it was worth, so no more pennies, no more coins.
I would burn more calories in the effort to pick up a quarter from the floor than I could replace buying food with that coin.
Coins at this point are NOTHING but a marketing tool. When I was a little kid a Hershey Bar cost a nickel, but nickels were few and far between. Yesterday I saw them in Safeway 2 for $3. On sale for a buck and a half. Thirty times what I paid as a child for a candy bar, ON SALE! More because they were bigger back then.
Was I born in 1922? 1935? 1947? Try 1958. So gasoline is cheap today compared to the past, because in the sixties you could buy a beach house in California for eight grand and a box of Kraft Mac'n'cheese for nine cents. An upscale new car was under $3,000. But minimum wage then was a buck and a quarter an hour, if it had been indexed to the price of houses it would still be about 95 bucks an hour, indexed to a box of breakfast cereal it would be about $125 an hour. Indexed to house prices the minimum wage would be about $250 per hour even after the fall in prices.
I would no more work for a wage in the USA than I would cut off my own left nut with a butter knife. Anyone who thinks that is wrong can just go pray I get AIDS or something, but I would not work 2000 hours per year at any job for less than 100,000 bucks. I consider that to be the poverty threshold in modern America, and it gets worse by the day.
Get a better car.
Look, it's fuking over. Most of the people around here knew the scam was on in 2008 and the rest has just been... frosting.
It's been every man, woman, child for oneself since then and the 1%ers know it.
The sequel will be better than than the original. That's an easy wager.
Stand and deliver, de-lever or STFUAGH.
Imagine what they can do to voting machines.
Unexpected access from retail investors due to the Greek bailout interfered with algos implemented in December. Have to increase delays in orders other than those from downstairs.
Gold is the enema of the world's financial system.......
It must have been Anonymous
Remember remember the 14th of February
the crude oil hacking and plot
for i give no fuck
why the crude oil hack
should ever be forgot.
pre-yentervention derivative roil.
GoinFawr ! The blow in blowjob is not just a figure of speech ! Old timers say there is a critical moment when the service provider stops sucking and begins blowing ! It's kind of a lost art ! Monedas 2012 Even my sick mind can't invent this shit !
I've noticed puffing that was at least incidental, for sure.