Today's Busy Event Roster: ISM, Lack Of Personal Income, Job Losses, Construction Outlays, and GM Channel Stuffing
Goldman summarizes today's very busy economic schedule:
8:30: Personal income and outlays (January): Firm spending. The sizable gain in core retail sales in January points to a likely increase in overall consumer spending for the month. We forecast a month-over-month gain of 0.5%. The spending figures in the report could have important implications for our tracking estimate of Q1 GDP growth (currently 2.3% annualized). Separately, we forecast that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.22% on the month. Without revisions, this monthly growth rate would imply a year-over-year increase of 1.9%. However, upward revisions to the core PCE figures in yesterday's Q4 GDP report suggest recent months could be revised higher, and therefore imply upside risks to this year-over-year growth rate.
Income: GS +0.4%; Consensus: +0.4%; Last +0.5%.
Spending: GS: +0.5; Consensus: +0.4%; Last Flat.
Core PCE prices: GS: +0.22%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.2%.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of February 25). Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits have continued to move steadily lower over the last two months. The four-week moving average reached a new recovery low of 359k last week. For this week's report, the consensus expects a small increase to 355k from 351k previously.
Consensus: 355,000; Last: 351,000. MAP: 2
10:00: Construction outlays (January): Better building. We forecast that construction expenditures increased by 1.0% (month-over-month) in January, helped by a pickup in new home building. Gains in housing starts--particularly in the multi-family segment of the market--should lead to increases in construction expenditures over time.
GS: +1.0%; Consensus: +1.0%; Last +1.5%.
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (February): Revised forecast. Yesterday we revised up our forecast for the ISM manufacturing index to 55.0 from 54.0 previously. All the major regional manufacturing surveys released before the ISM (Empire State, Philly Fed, Kansas City, Richmond, Texas and Chicago) improved from January to February. A gain in the national index therefore appears likely. The report's "prices paid" measure may also edge higher, given signs in commodity markets and the other surveys.
GS: 55.0; Consensus: 54.5; Last: 54.1. MAP: 5
10:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers his second day of testimony on the Monetary Policy Report to Congress, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. In yesterday's remarks, the Chairman remained relatively cautious on the economy, but he also failed to given clear signals about additional monetary easing.
10:30: Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin on the economy.
12:30: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on the economy and banking. Q&A expected.
Afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (February). Another increase. Manufacturer comments were consistent with another moderate increase in vehicles sales. We forecast that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 14.3 million units, which would be a new high for the recovery to date.
Total: GS: 14.3m; Consensus: 14.0m; last: 14.1m.
Domestic: GS: 10.9m; Consensus: 11.0m; Last 11.0m.
23:15: San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at a dinner on economic forecasting in Honolulu