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Today's Busy Event Roster: ISM, Lack Of Personal Income, Job Losses, Construction Outlays, and GM Channel Stuffing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Goldman summarizes today's very busy economic schedule:

8:30: Personal income and outlays (January): Firm spending. The sizable gain in core retail sales in January points to a likely increase in overall consumer spending for the month. We forecast a month-over-month gain of 0.5%. The spending figures in the report could have important implications for our tracking estimate of Q1 GDP growth (currently 2.3% annualized). Separately, we forecast that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.22% on the month. Without revisions, this monthly growth rate would imply a year-over-year increase of 1.9%. However, upward revisions to the core PCE figures in yesterday's Q4 GDP report suggest recent months could be revised higher, and therefore imply upside risks to this year-over-year growth rate.
Income: GS +0.4%; Consensus: +0.4%; Last +0.5%.
Spending: GS: +0.5; Consensus: +0.4%; Last Flat.
Core PCE prices: GS: +0.22%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.2%.

8:30: Jobless claims (Week of February 25). Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits have continued to move steadily lower over the last two months. The four-week moving average reached a new recovery low of 359k last week. For this week's report, the consensus expects a small increase to 355k from 351k previously.
Consensus: 355,000; Last: 351,000. MAP: 2

10:00: Construction outlays (January): Better building. We forecast that construction expenditures increased by 1.0% (month-over-month) in January, helped by a pickup in new home building. Gains in housing starts--particularly in the multi-family segment of the market--should lead to increases in construction expenditures over time.
GS: +1.0%; Consensus: +1.0%; Last +1.5%.

10:00: ISM manufacturing index (February): Revised forecast. Yesterday we revised up our forecast for the ISM manufacturing index to 55.0 from 54.0 previously. All the major regional manufacturing surveys released before the ISM (Empire State, Philly Fed, Kansas City, Richmond, Texas and Chicago) improved from January to February. A gain in the national index therefore appears likely. The report's "prices paid" measure may also edge higher, given signs in commodity markets and the other surveys.
GS: 55.0; Consensus: 54.5; Last: 54.1. MAP: 5

10:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers his second day of testimony on the Monetary Policy Report to Congress, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. In yesterday's remarks, the Chairman remained relatively cautious on the economy, but he also failed to given clear signals about additional monetary easing.

10:30: Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin on the economy.

12:30: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on the economy and banking. Q&A expected.

Afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (February). Another increase. Manufacturer comments were consistent with another moderate increase in vehicles sales. We forecast that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 14.3 million units, which would be a new high for the recovery to date.
Total: GS: 14.3m; Consensus: 14.0m; last: 14.1m.
Domestic: GS: 10.9m; Consensus: 11.0m; Last 11.0m.

23:15: San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at a dinner on economic forecasting in Honolulu

 

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Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:23 | 2212020 niktamere
niktamere's picture

Just another day in Whatthefuckistan

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:29 | 2212054 bdc63
bdc63's picture

sounds like the government's random number generators are going to be working overtime today ...

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:31 | 2212068 niktamere
niktamere's picture

implying they ever stopped working overtime!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:25 | 2212033 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

wait and see, it will get even wackier - red close

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:30 | 2212060 bdc63
bdc63's picture

as long as you're predicting markets today ... what's going to happen with PM's and crude?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:24 | 2212034 Cheyenne
Cheyenne's picture

The Chicago Tribune has uncovered startling evidence of the Recovery: the Wyoming legislature voted down a measure to brace for the apocalypse.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-doomsday-wyomingtre81s05p-2...

Rejoice!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:31 | 2212069 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Tyler or ZH   is the CDS  market  finished....I mean   How can it work, without a payout after a 70% haircut?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:43 | 2212126 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Who was surprised by the ISDA result? Bankers subjecting themselves to payouts? Never gonna happen.

 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:34 | 2212089 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Give him hell rick santelli

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:35 | 2212090 lettuce
lettuce's picture

I am loving this headline this morning... a rainy and cloudy day in NYC is brightened by this amusement ;)

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:40 | 2212109 leofff
leofff's picture

Have can people save when real inflation is running at 10% and the beard wants to keep pumping. 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 09:46 | 2212144 Robslob
Robslob's picture

There is nothing left to fear but fear itself....except tyranny, central wankers, governments and the rule of law "in reverse"

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 10:04 | 2212219 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go ahead clowns! Give us your numbers! STILL no ones going to buy the garbage youre peddling!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 10:12 | 2212252 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

We all know that ISM will be a blowout number, toping even the best estimate.  It's an election year after all. 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 12:02 | 2212780 GCT
GCT's picture

Sheep most will believe those numbers what you typing about.  For those that come here regularly you know they are fudged and this is an election year and to be honest it does not matter who is in the oval office they are going to do their best to make them look good.  The sheeple will re-elect him.  the only problem will be fuel prices so look out they are setting up to take fuel back down this year.  No need to get upset about them this year!

 

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