Today's Carnage Through The Eyes Of Goldman

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since Goldman continues to press clients into the worst trade recommendation in the firm's history (remember that once in a lifetime long equity, bond short? no? look here) it means that at least the Goldman version of Bruno Iksil who sits on the firm's prop desk (but only hedge for god's sake, don't go getting any ideas) is having a great time since he is on the other side across from Goldman's clients. Still, while we won't feel bad for them, it is always interesting to note what are the things that Goldman watches for during market wipe outs, such as today, the worst day of trading so far in 2012. So without further ado, here is Goldman's Tuesday roundup.

From GS sales/trading

  • Stocks lower, again. Fifth day running. Europe is again the catalyst as the damage done there makes US violence look like a minor scrape. Italian bourses down almost 5%, and same goes for European financials. Spanish banks now back to last year’s lows and SX7E not too far from the same. Cash flow reasonably balanced, but ETF flow much better for sale – which follows notable buying of downside protection yesterday. Heavy flow clearing today – NYSE volumes 30% above 10, 20, and 30d average. Not the most relevant line, but SPX broke its 50d moving average. Not too far now from uptrend support drawn from the October lows. That comes in around 1350 (cash). SPX closes down 24 at 1359 (-1.71%). The DOW closes down 216 at 12716 (-1.65%). The NASDAQ closes down 56 at 2991 (-1.83%).
  • The VIX up another 1.6 to 20.4. The VIX term structure flattened pretty significantly – today the front month VIX contract (Apr) closed less than 1 point above spot (compare to mid-Feb when front month VIX traded at a 5 point premium to VIX spot).
  • Owned positions under significant attack in FX today, led by MXN. While USDMXN up 1.5% makes sense in the context of stocks down a similar amount, that damage was done prior to 10am EST when US equities started their decline. USDZAR too had already made an aggressive move higher. Contrast with AUD where losses were more modest. AUD in fact outperforms CAD (ie, AUDCAD higher), which is quite rare for such a serious risk-off day. Relative EUR outperformance even more significant / surprising / frustrating. EUR lower is the opposite of a pain trade, something of a pleasure trade – many winners and few losers as EURUSD trades lower.
  • Another day, another rally for the US rates market.  The tone was set overnight as peripherals opened up weaker following the holiday weekend, and Spanish and Italian yields continued to push higher over the course of the day.  Bunds, Gilts and USTs all rallied in due course and ultimately the 2.02% resistance level in 10y USTs failed to hold.  Spreads also widened again, closing as much as 2.7bps higher in 10s.  While we saw better receiving over the course of the day from a variety of accounts, we also saw some stabs at reinitiating shorts at these levels from both levered accounts and real money.
  • Copper the story in commodities today - $8088 was 3m copper’s 100 day MA and is now history and again on volume.  Some shorts squaring up late in the day given size of and volume behind this move and thus the potential for a snap back especially given the potential for further LME/SHFE covering that was seen last night. Other highlights - gold up 1.2% and silver up 0.8%, WTI down 1.5% and brent down 2.5%. In our new energy weekly we reiterate our long Sep12 WTI as we continue to expect the Seaway to debottleneck Cushing, with WTI-brent spreads narrowing in line with pipeline tariff economics.
  • An active day in credit with two way flow from fast money accounts with some better buyers of protection. IG closed at 104.75 and HY closed at 94.75.
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Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:07 | 2333085 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Through the eyes of Goldman: "Oh, there's my straw.  Wow, check out that bitch.  Did I order her?"

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:11 | 2333092 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

"So which sovereign nation is next to have an ex-Goldmanite technocrat installed as its PM?"

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:14 | 2333101 Straying from t...
Straying from the flock's picture

Amerika.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:18 | 2333108 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We already have one installed.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:19 | 2333109 Straying from t...
Straying from the flock's picture

Yes, but there is that little matter of the election.  Do we have it or should we do away with antiquities? Voting is so last season.

 

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:21 | 2333117 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I'd actually love to see that happen, just to find out how many people don't even realize that elections have been eliminated.

I'd wager 40% of the population wouldn't even bat an eye as they scan their teevee menu to find the next Kardashian show.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:25 | 2333125 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Well TPTB are already floating that idea.  Just fucking take a look at Europe.

Headline after headline each and every week, how great it is for democracy to be thrown to the way-side in favor of unelected technocrats.  It's better because these guys prevented another great depression [that they created].

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:29 | 2333131 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Nice observation, Severin.

The old "Problem reaction solution" approach has worked wonders for TPTB for quite some time, hasn't it?

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:35 | 2333141 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

It has.  As has the hidden in plain sight tool.

I routinely show friends, families, and people I've just met articles, clips, movies, etc. where global government is openly talked about and promoted.  I show them reoccurring Illuminati/Satantic symbolism in mass media...And all the time, they dismiss it, arguing it is either entirely coincidental or "if it was some great conspiracy, why wouldn't they hide it?"

I even had one friend (now ex-friend) tell me that subliminal messaging and the subconscious do not exist...I simply asked him to explain using sex in advertising (something that is common knowledge) and he told me that I was wrong, and he was right.

Incrementalism is also a powerful tool for the elites.  Just look at the type of shit that's on TV these days.  It's getting dumber and dumber and more sexual and sexual.  50 years ago did we have shows like Jersey Shore, where people have no problem fucking each other or urinating in public?  Did we have movies like the Hunger Games where little children violently murder each other?

 

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 20:07 | 2333215 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

She isn't perfect, but she's nailed a lot of what's happened in our recent history.  It's called "Disaster Capitalism."  http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine

She explains better than most how 9/11 and the '08 crisis were used by the oligarchs to solidify control.  

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 20:21 | 2333244 Cursive
Cursive's picture

...or you could check out this equally interesting site.

 

http://vigilantcitizen.com/

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 00:41 | 2333660 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

VC is fantastic. Also Michael Tsarion and Jordan Maxwell. Superb insights.

Perhaps the title of this piece should have been: Today's Carnage Through the All Seeing Eye of Goldman. ;-)

This is called turbulence testing.... and this kind of volatility is coming to the PM market too. Great time to be alive and trading if you know your stops and are in paper PMs.

ori

/unedited-stream-of-consciousness/

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:13 | 2333312 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I've just about finished The Shock Doctrine by Naomi. Interesting read. Kind of puts a bullet through the Friedman/Chicago School of economics and exposes it for what it is, and it feeds right into the policies we see in the US today.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:45 | 2333370 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Agreed.  She sees the forest like few I've read. 

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 20:23 | 2333248 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Hunger Games is a ticking time bomb for the ruling aristocracy. Just watch. It's coming.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:19 | 2333325 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Agenda 21 fits the model nicely.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:19 | 2333329 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

You mean Survivor will become more brutal season/season if ratings decline?

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:45 | 2333160 knukles
knukles's picture

Jesus God, man....

The elections already have been eliminated. 
Do you really think for a moment a blank slate versus a died in the wool banker's friend is the choice of the "people" through a purely democratic ground swell uprising of the talented, gifted, altruistic states-persons?

WTF?

The decisions have already been made behind the scenes (used to be called smoke filled back rooms) as to who is gonna be running on the red and blue shirt teams in the one game controlled by the commissioners comprised of the monied parties.

Elections have already been eliminated.
Get a fucking grip.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 20:24 | 2333251 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Knuk....I greened ya only because I disgustedly must agree

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:30 | 2333345 Jake88
Jake88's picture

you can always vote for Ron Paul.  no law yet says we have to vote for one of the CFR puppets. 

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:34 | 2333349 john39
john39's picture

one word.  diebold.  its over.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:25 | 2333427 BobPaulson
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Bingo, we have another winner. John39 wins tonight.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:20 | 2333115 SeverinSlade
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In the end, America is just getting precisely what it deserves.  Obama today is behaving like Hitler, except he's black and trendy.  The idiot sheeple that are tired of Obama (and were tired of Bush after they were tired of Clinton, etc) are now gravitating toward Mittens Romney, who is exactly like Obama, except he's white and not as hip.  He's on the same page as Obama on every single fucking thing that matters and only differs with him slightly on some minor social policies.

We are literally living in the Matrix.  The sheeple are so wholly dependent on it that they will fight to the death to defend the very system that perpetuates their enslavement.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 19:36 | 2333144 SeverinSlade
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1 junk.  Obama must have finished early on the golf course.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 20:24 | 2333247 LetThemEatRand
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2 junks.    Biden pulled up ZH on his I-phone on his train ride home.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:31 | 2333346 Reese Bobby
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I junked you both for thinking you are more enlightened than other people.  Exactly what are you doing to make any real difference that the regular person is not.  Posting on a group-think website?  ZH has been taken over by young, whiny, and worse, unlikable lemmings.  There, I feel better...and yes, I am moving on from this site...it takes a little time to accept the new reality, but I am mostly silent here now.  Bite me.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:37 | 2333352 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Not that it's any of your business, but some of us also do shit beyond posting on ZH and we find this an entertaining outlet for political discussion.  By the way, nice Hollywood handle.   Who is the lemming, asshole?

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 02:07 | 2333756 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

since when is viewing lemonparty 4 times a day considered "doing other shit"?

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:37 | 2333353 SeverinSlade
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So a self admitting do nothing is blasting others for doing nothing (which is a pitiful assumption)...talk about the height of hypocrisy.

I won't even get into what I do on a day to day basis.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:43 | 2333366 wretch
wretch's picture

I don't believe you.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:20 | 2333422 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

My final, I hope, +1 for effective caustic humor.  Well done.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 21:54 | 2333378 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

You are a loser.

 

Self-evident piece of dog-turd.

But then, that was what you were trying to portray, was it not?

Loser.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:22 | 2333425 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

That hurt because as you can imagine, I highly respect your opinion.  One question:  Do you think I am a loser.  It was a little unclear you wordsmith.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:19 | 2333391 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

P.S.  Good biography link. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqnMrynpq9U

 Asshole.  I hope your acting out here is not misplaced Blue Team tribalism.  Steinbeck was angry at the system, not a particular political party.  And his primary protest outlet?  Writing.   

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:20 | 2333419 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

I expected responses that would confirm my observations, but almost ALL of you exceeded my expectations!  Thanks.

 

When I was young we had role-models like The Clash.  I'm not sure what you folks have.

 

But since you decided to stalk my "bio" page, the video is meant to reinforce the Biblical passage.  It may take half your life, or more, to understand.  Good luck.

 

 

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:32 | 2333429 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Sometimes this says it best.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFvdpE3YUfM

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:33 | 2333441 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Meanwhile, you put me to sleep.  Even though I am now pretty sure my opinion doesn't matter.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:39 | 2333450 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

That would be the downside of "thinking you are more enlightened than other people."  Hypocrisy.  It's the new white meat.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:59 | 2333477 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

And this reminds me of you:

I'm all lost in the supermarket
I can no longer shop happily
I came in here for the special offer
Guaranteed personality

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:26 | 2333431 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

You somehow think your expectations matter....

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:31 | 2333439 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

And yet I still respect you.  I guess you "win" even though I somehow know that doesn't matter  Good luck.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:51 | 2333463 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

No need to win. Nice try at the holier than thou shtick though. Coming here to rile up posters does what, exactly, to meet your own expectations or to create the change you might want to see in the world?

I didn't say I had no respect for you, that is your own stuff to work through. However, another person's opinion, especially on a message board, is not my reality. By the way, did you list any expectations? Or did you just assume we should all live up to your expectations as you imagine them in your mind? Do you have difficulties in your relationships? Especially with the opposite sex?

My comment about expectations was posted to see if you are as "enlightened" as you indicate in an earlier post. Perhaps you have more to learn yourself instead of trying to tell others how to change the world in a manner that meets your expectations.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 23:17 | 2333520 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

First of all, at least I know I have a lot to learn.

 

And I did not list any expectations.  I'll give it a try:

ZH has mapped out the system that has ruined the future of this Country.  Even they are getting tired of explaining it, hence the "B Team."

Now I am not willing to join street protests to help educate the angry.  I admit it.  I am unwilling to give up the money it would cost me.  That is one reason I know I am no better than anybody else.

But why won't anybody?:

Explain to the young people willing to protest that Democrats and Republicans are the same thing.

Explain to them that CB's starve people, for real.

Explain to them the entire long-term plan to enslave the lower-middle class in a hopeless economy propped up by Federal handouts.

ZH has provided the knowledge but nobody has effectively shared it with the directionless protestors who have only figured out something is terribly, terribly wrong.

They have to know why, "You've got to say, 'I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!'"

 

So that's where my anger comes from, and am was surprised to find myself trying you to explain it to you.  Good Luck.

 

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 04:15 | 2333848 Western
Western's picture

What's weird is that you say you "have a lot to learn" yet you've posted more than I have in the past month.

 

You don't learn by posting your own thoughts.. but you knew that, and so does everybody else. Begone.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 23:01 | 2333442 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

I'm not debating with Reese Bobby but don't dis RATM. Regardless of the medium of expression, some anger leading to action would be a nice change.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:15 | 2333413 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Hey...I do my best to live as off-grid, under-the-counter, and in the gray economy as possible while throwing as many legally allowed monkeywrenches as I can into this corrupt system. Not all efforts at change require a fan base, rating system, website, podcast, twit-er, Facebook page, or bullhorn.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:27 | 2333432 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

I respect that.  What are you doing here with metro-sexual's who mainly just bitch?

 

Please read "Mere Christianity."  You and my morning cab driver are my only conversion efforts of the day.  Sub-par effort on my part.  It is my hope God Blesses you and your family.

Tue, 04/10/2012 - 22:54 | 2333469 GoinFawr
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"Well, blessed is just about everyone with a vested interest in the status quo, as far as I can tell, Reg"-Francis

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!