Today's Economic And Political Docket - Personal Income, GM Channel Stuffing And The Senate
Today we get Personal Income and Outlays, i.e., the savings rate, car sales (watch for GM dealer inventory), and the debt ceiling drama concludes in the Senate.
8:30: Personal income and outlays (June): Revisions. Full quarterly results for personal income and spending were released with the Q2 advance GDP report on Friday. Today’s release for June will provide details on the monthly pattern of growth during the quarter. Year-over-year growth in the core PCE price index is likely to be revised up.
Income: GS +0.2%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.3%.
Spending: GS: Flat; Consensus: +0.1%; Last Flat. MAP: 1
Core PCE prices: GS: +0.2%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.3%.
Afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (July). Modest rebound. Manufacturer comments during the month were consistent with total vehicle sales of around 12.0 million units (saar). This would be an improvement from the very weak 11.4m unit sales pace in June, but still down significantly from 13.1m units in April.
Total: GS: 12.0m; Consensus: 11.8m; Last: 11.4m.
Domestic: GS: 9.5mm; Consensus: 9.2m; Last 8.9m.
And in political watch:
10:00 am – Mortgage servicing. Witnesses representing the community bankers and larger mortgage servicers will testify. In the Senate Banking Committee.
10:00 am – CMS and GAO testify on health reform and insurance premiums. In the Senate Health Education Labor and Pensions Committee.
12:00 pm – Final Senate vote on debt limit package. Senators agreed to waive the full procedural timeline yesterday, and so will expedite consideration of the debt limit package today. Debate starts at 9:30 am, the final vote is scheduled around noon. Given the strong House vote last night, and that even before that vote had occurred the Senate was already expected to pass it by a wide margin, there isn’t much uncertainty regarding the outcome. While the deadline for enactment is technically today, the Treasury has plenty of room to finance commitments. After morning’s ISM number the markets attention had already turned elsewhere even before the House vote, and is likely to remain focused on things other than Washington until the committee process created by the bill nears its November 23 deadline for reporting recommendations of at least $1.2 trillion in additional savings. The next event in that process will come no later than two weeks from now, when House and Senate leaders must appoint the 12 members of the commission (expected to be committee chairs/ranking members, and probably whips—i.e., the second in line in the leadership structure of each chamber).
From Goldman and ZH
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