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Today's Economic Data Docket - All About The NFP

Tyler Durden's picture




 

All eyes on the July employment report. Goldman summarizes what to expect below, and while we refuse to predict what the number will be this time, we remind readers that it was the horrible July NFP reported in the first week of August 2010 that set off a chain of events starting with Goldman first downgrading the economy, leading to Hatzius and Dudley holding hushed tete-a-tetes, and ultimately culminating with Jackson Hole three weeks later. If the Fed is truly hell bent on QE3 or bust, expect a very disappointing NFP number this month (and potentially an even worse one next month when the economic data is goalseeked to validate monetary policy which only succeeds in raising the Russell 2000).
 
8:30: Employment Report (July): Low growth. Goldman forecasts an increase in nonfarm payroll employment of 50k. Available labor market data for the month of July have been mixed. On the one hand, initial jobless claims, the ADP report, and the non-manufacturing ISM employment index were consistent with healthier growth. On the other hand, job advertising volumes, the manufacturing ISM employment index, and layoff announcements signaled a weak result. The firm forecasts that the unemployment rate held at 9.2%. A further increase in the unemployment rate would bring Goldman closer to tripping its recession warning rule of thumb.

Payrolls: GS: +50k; Consensus: +85k; Last +18k. MAP: 5
Unemployment: GS 9.2%; Consensus: 9.2%; Last 9.2%. MAP: 5
Earnings: GS +0.1%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last: flat.
   
15:00: Consumer credit (June): Likely gains. Consensus forecasts expect that consumer (non-mortgage) credit increased for a ninth consecutive month in June. Recently the trend in “revolving” consumer credit (credit card debt) has turned up. Revolving consumer credit increased by $3.3bn in May—the largest gain since June 2008.
Consensus: +$5.0bn; Last +$5.1bn.

From Goldman Sachs

 

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Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:49 | 1526148 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

It's going negative and qe3 coming

My guess is a loss of 15k and qe3 hints start flying today. Stocks slightly up.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:49 | 1526150 Tiresias
Tiresias's picture

Eh, I'm no Wall Street economist, but I'll throw out an -18k estimate.  Anyone else have any clue?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:22 | 1526220 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

After excrutiatingly tedious calculations, I predict it will either be up or down by some number that is within the range of real numbers, not to discount the possiblity that the "real" number will fall squarely within the imaginary number domain.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:49 | 1526153 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I think we get a bad number with big downward revisions

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:55 | 1526165 J in Vegas
J in Vegas's picture

+1 (-35,000 revision) . Always a down revision. Always. I stayed up past my bedtime to see the opening clusterfuck. I will wake up to CNBS bullshit at noon(PST) on my day off to access if all my shorts have done well. See my last recent post for stock ideas.

J in Vegas.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:07 | 1526185 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

+.5

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:52 | 1526155 freethinker4now
freethinker4now's picture

I have no nails left. My head is spinning. I don't know which way to turn. BUT I have my goody goody Gold :)

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:50 | 1526157 chump666
chump666's picture

futures are pricing in crap number.  mid august and QE3 is activated...then a rating down grade of USTs+ China sells a chunk, market goes into further meltdown in sept.  there you go crystal ball

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:58 | 1526168 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Don't know what to think of china. It's kinda a codependency relationship with the USA. Were the drunks they enable.

I think they want to suck us dry before getting all warlike

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:52 | 1526162 chump666
chump666's picture

20k ...going by amazon crappy book sales last mth.  yes i am guessing

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:55 | 1526163 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Since were all waiting, everyone throw out their best guess. I'm sure it'll be closer than the eCONomists.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:59 | 1526173 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Headline: +65K

Private: +120K

(Later revised lower ;-))

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:58 | 1526167 Piranha
Piranha's picture

If the number come in better than expected we get a small rally, but then what? The market can't feed on it for too long, its gonna end bad later in the session. We need some centralbankers to throw money at the market for an "extensive period of time" for this market to change direction.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:00 | 1526176 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

If Its BTE who knows. Bad news = qe3 sooner. Knowing uncle sugar is on his way give em a warm feeling.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:11 | 1526193 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Not leaked.?..Gonna go with two sets of numbers, based on whether they have enough to try to end the correction now or if they need to let out more line. A better than expected will have Liesman touting "See! we're correcting", he seems to be very smug lately. So far its been weird, very controlled panic selling. As if everyone is waiting on the Fed, preventing capitulation. (reposted from goldman article)

Guess everyone is waiting for the insider info move a minute before release.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:58 | 1526169 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

-80K

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:58 | 1526170 Alpine
Alpine's picture

Gold/silver taken down the day before NFP results, as usual the correlation.
CFTC must be perfectly aware of this.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:02 | 1526178 THE DOCTOR
THE DOCTOR's picture

And your point is?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:25 | 1526181 Bob
Bob's picture

Meanwhile, the politicians and corporate media talking heads, having installed Mr. Market as the impersonal and unimpeachable Arbiter of Truth, are now pointing to his recent squawks and contortions as proof that "The Market," dissatisfied with the deficit deal, is demanding further "stimulative" tax cuts and decreased government spending. 

Get money to the "job creators" while there's still time!  Never let a crisis go to waste. 

We'll be sacrificing virgins to Mr. Market before it's over. 

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:04 | 1526184 Havana White
Havana White's picture

How can the data be goalseeked?  I've often wondered about these reports' integrity.  Bottom line, are the figures reported accurate?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:07 | 1526187 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

My guess, and that's all that it is, market gos sideways today, bottom drops out Monday.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:10 | 1526192 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

If a bad number does the S&P drop or rise due to the forthcoming QE3?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:10 | 1526199 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

only a few more minuites to go, i am so excited my nipples are hard.  I think QE3 is assured but not for the banks or the citizens , its just to keep the goverment from collapsing.   no more buyers of our debt except for QE3 process.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:18 | 1526211 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

No leaks, seems very strange - could be positive. I say -25k, carnage ensues!!!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:19 | 1526214 Cdad
Cdad's picture

0 jobs on the headline.

No matter what it is, S&P prints 1188 before the hue and cry rises enough on the BlowHorn for QE3...before the market turns for a very brief snap back.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:26 | 1526236 island
island's picture

Smart marketeers know this:

1.  A low job figure continues to confirm that growth is limited, if not completely stalled.

2.  QE3, should it occur, is bad for the real economy: higher food & fuel prices, and virtually no impact on increasing consumption, and a drag on future growth.

The excessive debt of the past few decades needs to be restructured.  That is the only way to "reset" the real economy.  Along with that the debt-as-money paradigm needs to be axed, taking The Fed with it.   Of course, neither of these things (debt restructure and non-debt-based-money) will happen as long as the banksters who are running the economy can pillage, via their political accomplices, more from Main St.

 

 

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:32 | 1526259 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Doomsters hit by a truck with the BIG number.
Recession My A$$

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:52 | 1667434 chinawholesaler
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