Today's Economic Data Docket - Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, New Home Sales, And POMO

Tyler Durden's picture

After yesterday's economic data drought, today brings the flood as we get new home sales and Case-Shiller prices, consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed index. We also get a small POMO as part of QE Lite and also two bill and one note auctions, sucking a combined $73 billion in capital out of the market.

 9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (May): Stable. Our model based on asking prices points to a small increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-city index during May. This would leave prices down 4.4% from a year earlier.
GS +0.1%; Consensus: flat; Last -0.1%. MAP: 0
 
10:00: Conference Board confidence index (July): Downside risks. Reported weakness in the University of Michigan’s sentiment index points to another step down in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence. We forecast a decline to 54.5 from 58.5, a larger drop than expected by the consensus.
GS: 54.5; Consensus: 56.0; Last: 58.5.MAP: 3
 
10:00: Richmond Fed survey (July): Also improving? Regional manufacturing surveys released for July so far—including the Philadelphia Fed index, the Dallas Fed index, and the Empire State index—improved modestly month-over-month. The consensus expects a similar message in today’s Richmond Fed report. In additions to a manufacturing index, the Richmond Fed survey contains a separate set of questions sent to firms in service-providing industries, which is one of the few direct measures of services activity in the monthly indicator cycle.
Consensus: +5; Last +3.MAP: 1
 
10:00: New home sales (June): Small decline. We forecast that new home sales fell by 2% in June, following a similar decline in May. New home sales have held in a tight range of about 275k to 325k for the last year.
GS: -2.0%; Consensus: +0.3%; Last -2.1%. MAP: 2

11:00: Time for some mini POMO - Brian Sack will buy Treasurys in the 08/15/2018 - 05/15/2021 range

11:30: Treasury will auction an $18.0 billion 4-week bill, which will paydown $10.0 billion, and a $20.0 billion 52-week bill to paydown $5.0 billion.

13:00: Treasury will auction a $35.0 billion 2-year note to paydown $6.999 billion

14:00: Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig testifies on monetary policy.

Grom GS, SMRA and ZH