After yesterday's economic data drought, today brings the flood as we get new home sales and Case-Shiller prices, consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed index. We also get a small POMO as part of QE Lite and also two bill and one note auctions, sucking a combined $73 billion in capital out of the market.
9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (May): Stable. Our model based on asking prices points to a small increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-city index during May. This would leave prices down 4.4% from a year earlier.
GS +0.1%; Consensus: flat; Last -0.1%. MAP: 0
10:00: Conference Board confidence index (July): Downside risks. Reported weakness in the University of Michigan’s sentiment index points to another step down in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence. We forecast a decline to 54.5 from 58.5, a larger drop than expected by the consensus.
GS: 54.5; Consensus: 56.0; Last: 58.5.MAP: 3
10:00: Richmond Fed survey (July): Also improving? Regional manufacturing surveys released for July so far—including the Philadelphia Fed index, the Dallas Fed index, and the Empire State index—improved modestly month-over-month. The consensus expects a similar message in today’s Richmond Fed report. In additions to a manufacturing index, the Richmond Fed survey contains a separate set of questions sent to firms in service-providing industries, which is one of the few direct measures of services activity in the monthly indicator cycle.
Consensus: +5; Last +3.MAP: 1
10:00: New home sales (June): Small decline. We forecast that new home sales fell by 2% in June, following a similar decline in May. New home sales have held in a tight range of about 275k to 325k for the last year.
GS: -2.0%; Consensus: +0.3%; Last -2.1%. MAP: 2
11:00: Time for some mini POMO - Brian Sack will buy Treasurys in the 08/15/2018 - 05/15/2021 range
11:30: Treasury will auction an $18.0 billion 4-week bill, which will paydown $10.0 billion, and a $20.0 billion 52-week bill to paydown $5.0 billion.
13:00: Treasury will auction a $35.0 billion 2-year note to paydown $6.999 billion
14:00: Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig testifies on monetary policy.
Grom GS, SMRA and ZH