A busy data schedule, with the CPI, existing home sales, jobless claims and the Philly Fed index, all of which will be ignored as the market focuses entirely on European headlines once again.
8:30: Consumer Price Index (July): Goldman forecasts that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% (mom), or 0.2% excluding food and energy. Last month, several of the alternative “core” measures—the trimmed mean, median and sticky CPIs—showed signs of deceleration. The main question this month will be whether the traditional core series also has started to cool.
CPI: GS: +0.4%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last -0.22%.
Core CPI: GS: +0.2%; Consensus: +0.2%; last +0.254%. MAP: 4
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of August 13): Still low? The low rate of initial jobless claims over the last few weeks has been a major surprise. We had expected claims to at least remain around May and June levels, given below-trend growth in the economy overall and increases in other proxies for layoffs (e.g. Challenger announced job cuts). If claims remain around 400k—as the consensus expects—it would be a good sign for the short-term labor market outlook.
Consensus: 400,000; Last: 395,000. MAP: 2
8:35: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the regional economy.
10:00: Existing home sales (July): Forecast change. Although the pending home sales index (a leading indicator) has increased in recent months, regional sales figures point to a relatively weak result. Goldman cut its forecast for existing home sales to an unchanged reading from +8.0% (mom) previously.
GS: Flat; Consensus: +2.7%; Last -0.8%.MAP: 2
10:00: Philadelphia Fed index (August): Back below zero? GS forecasts that the Philadelphia Fed’s business conditions index fell to -1.0 in August after rebounding to +3.2 in July. The weak-than-expected Empire State index result on Monday points to some downside risks.
GS: -1.0; Consensus: +2.0; Last +3.2. MAP: 4
10:00: Index of leading indicators (July): Components of the leading index were mixed last month, with a decline in initial jobless claims offset by a drop in consumer confidence and weakness in the ISM vendor performance index.
Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.3%.
11:00: Treasury will announce details of the following week's 3- and 6-month bill auctions and a 52-week bill along with the month-end 2-, 5-, and 7-year auction details. Market is looking for a combined $58.0 billion of 3- and 6-month bills, a $25.0 billion 52-week bill, a $33.0 billion 2-year note, a $34.0 billion 5-year note, and a $28.0 billion 7-year note.
13:00 : Treasury auctions a $12.0 billion reopening of the 1/8% of 04/15/16 5-year TIPS.
14:30: New York Fed President William Dudley tours Jersey City, NJ.
Source: Goldman, Stone McCarthy