Just two economic datapoints today, jobless claims and pending home sales, which will continue confirming deteriorating macro trends, to be largely lost in the headline barrage as today is D-Day on the Boehner plan. The last of this week's bond auction trifecta comes to a close with an auction of 7 Year bonds. Unless there is an imminent debt ceiling hike this could be the last bond auction for a long, long time.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of July 23): Upside risks. For the last two weeks, initial jobless claims figures have been challenging to interpret due to seasonal adjustment issues in the vehicle sector (in early July manufacturers retool plants for the new model-year vehicles and temporarily layoff workers). This week, these seasonal adjustment distortions could lead to higher jobless claims on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Goldman sees upside risks to the consensus forecast.
Consensus: 415,000; Last: 418,000. MAP: 2
10:00: Pending home sales (June): Another drop? The pending home sales index – which tracks signed home sales contracts, and leads the official count of existing home sales by 1-2 months – rose by 8% in May after an 11% drop in April. The consensus expects a small setback (-2%) in this month’s report. Mortgage purchase application volumes have also remained very weak, consistent with a soft pending home sales reading.
Consensus: -2.0%; Last +8.2%. MAP: 2
11:00: Treasury will announce a projected $59.0 billion of 3- and 6-month bills
12:45: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker on the economy.
13:00: Treasury will auction a $29.0 billion 7-year note to raise all new cash.
14:30: San Francisco Fed President John Williams to community bankers.
From Goldman, Stone McCarthy and ZH