Today's Economic Data Docket - European TARP and US Q3 GDP
While everyone's attention today will be focused on Europe and the market's kneejerk reaction, America will announce its advance Q3 GDP print which is expected to show a modest bounce from recent lows.
8:30: GDP (Q3-Advance): Rebound. Real GDP growth likely rebounded in Q3, based on available expenditure data for the quarter. Goldman forecasts an increase of 2.5% (quarter-over-quarter, annualized), and sees some upside risk to that estimate. Consumer spending likely increased by around 2% after rising by only 0.7% in Q2. A sizable increase in business fixed investment is expected together with roughly unchanged housing activity, and another decline in government spending.
GDP: GS: +2.5%; Consensus: +2.5%; Last (Q2-Final) +1.3%. MAP: 4
GDP price index: GS: +2.5%; Consensus: +2.4%; Last: +2.5%.
PCE core index: GS: +2.7%; Consensus: +2.2%; Last: +2.3%.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of October 22): Still Flat? Jobless claims have been roughly flat over the past four weeks at about 400k. Consensus forecasts expect claims to hold at these levels.
Consensus: 401,000; Last: 403,000. MAP: 2
10:00: Pending home sales (September): Stable. The pending home sales index – which tracks signed home sales contracts, and leads the official count of existing home sales by 1-2 months – has been roughly unchanged in recent months. Steady mortgage purchase application volumes suggest this trend is likely to persist for the time being.
Consensus: +0.3%; Last -1.2%. MAP: 2
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