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Today's Economic Data Docket - FOMC, ADP And Lots Of Kneejerk-Inducing Headlines

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While as usual only headlines will be market moving, today we get the always completely irrelevant and very much worthless October ADP report, followed by the FOMC statement and press conference this afternoon.
 
8:15: ADP employment report (October): Slight improvement? The consensus forecast for private nonfarm payroll employment (+125k) should be roughly consistent with a gain of +100k in the ADP report. This would be a slight improvement from +91k in September. 
Consensus: +100k; Last +114k. MAP: 3
 
12:30: FOMC rate decision and statement. The FOMC will release its standard statement at 12:30 today. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference and the publication of FOMC forecasts will follow at 14:15.
 
A few points are worth highlighting. Goldman does not expect the FOMC to ease policy at this meeting, either through its actions (i.e. additional asset purchases) or through its words (i.e. a lengthening of the funds rate commitment from the current mid-2013 date). Second, while it expects that Fed officials will eventually take steps toward greater transparency—possibly including a published forecast for the federal funds rate—today’s meeting is still probably too early for such a move. This topic will likely come up in Chairman Bernanke’s post-meeting press conference. Third, any changes to the statement should be minor, but they will likely be in a more upbeat direction, given the improvement in financial conditions and better tone to the data. For example, the committee may replace the phrase “significant downside risks” with just “downside risks.” Finally, Fed officials will roll out forecasts for 2014 for the first time. Goldman expects them to show a “central tendency” forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2014 of 7.1%-7.6%.
 
14:15: Fed Chairman Bernanke press conference.
 
20:00: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at awards dinner. No Q&A.

 

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Wed, 11/02/2011 - 07:53 | 1836101 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Only 22pc of Italian's have "a lot" or "enough" confidence in their prime minister, down from 24pc in September. By contrast, 66pc of people have "zero" confidence in the 75-year old leader, according to the poll for the newspaper La Repubblica.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:08 | 1836120 paarsons
paarsons's picture

Let me tell you people the news.

It's bad.  It's gonna get worse.

It might even lead to war.

But what's a boy to do.

My advice?  Jerk off to Becky Quick.  It can't hurt. It can only help.

Peace.

http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:26 | 1836160 sabra1
sabra1's picture

if becky quick isn't available, there's always janet napolitano!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 07:54 | 1836106 Irish66
Irish66's picture


Bank of Italy denies reports of a bond swap emergency intervention with Italian banks

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 07:58 | 1836111 Cynical Sidney
Cynical Sidney's picture

QE Cubed or the juice confetti press. the longer shalom bernanke puts it off the more debt that are snowballed which ultimately result in a bigger bailout at a later date

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:42 | 1836192 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The debt is a fraud to begin with and many people around the world are waking up to this.  Good luck, the more these paper-pushing fucknuts try to "fix" things the more people wake up to the reality that infinite growth on a finite world is impossible and the more people lose faith in all things "paper".  Nature makes no promises regarding anyone's survival, deal with it and be responsible for yourself.  Got physical?  You better or you better have some real-world tradable skills because ounce the bullshit paper is gone you can be damn sure that compensation (in whatever form that may be) will find its way back to people who are actually worth a shit.  Fine with me, that is how it should be to begin with.  Fuck these paper-pushing fucknuts who bring no real value to the system.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:02 | 1836113 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Let's hope they have a fax machine that works this time

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:05 | 1836117 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

I cant help to ask if anyone else finds it funny when the media talks about the POSSIBILITY of a double dip?  As I see it, we are in a depression we have long passed a double dip recession but, I may be alone in my thinking.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:42 | 1836198 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Careful, the truth will get you on a watch list.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:59 | 1836242 oldman
oldman's picture

True, Law

Fear is the lifeblood of this country,

Stay with it, baby      om

hey!, whatever happened to 'Fight Club'?       only reason I stayed here is because it seemed such an interesting place

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:21 | 1836152 msmith
msmith's picture

A bit more "risk off" expected today.  Here is a look at the SPX, DX, and TNX.   http://bit.ly/rTM48H

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:22 | 1836154 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

@ MFL8240

You're not alone. There's no possibility of a double dip because we never got out of the recession of '08 and it should now be classed as a depression now.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:27 | 1836163 oldman
oldman's picture

The trouble is that there has not been any rumor or news that was 'knee-jerking' for a sophistcated market. The knee-jerks are a cover for lack of a market. Who cares? 

More like a bum on the street rushing into the wine-seller's as soon as someone gives him a couple of bucks. When have sophisticated buyers and sellers reacted to rumors in a panic day after day? The maket is an organism, after all, and seems to be re-organizing itself quite nicely. 'Who' are the same handfull of computerbanks that have replaced the real market.

"Computerbanks" is an interesting word to me and freely interchangeable with the word 'market'.

any serious trader with serious funds loves this maket and is not panicked and not talking about what he is doing

the rest of us are making too much out of the house burning to the ground

what else did we expect?

After several days of this it is becoming too tiresome to write about          om         

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 08:35 | 1836179 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The best thing that could come out of ther FOMC would be an appology for fucking up.  They could announce that they screwed up with ZIRP and admit that there is always a cost for creating capital.  They could announce that they will begin moving interest rates up very slowly.

They don't actually have to do anything, just yet, but by simply making this statement and also threatening the congressional "supercommittee" to shit or get off the pot would do wonders.  

Probably won't matter either way which is just fine with me.  Crash the system and lets find out exactly who's labor is actually worth a shit.  All paper-pushing fucknuts need to be shot, period.

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