Today's Economic Data Docket - FOMC, ADP And Lots Of Kneejerk-Inducing Headlines
While as usual only headlines will be market moving, today we get the always completely irrelevant and very much worthless October ADP report, followed by the FOMC statement and press conference this afternoon.
8:15: ADP employment report (October): Slight improvement? The consensus forecast for private nonfarm payroll employment (+125k) should be roughly consistent with a gain of +100k in the ADP report. This would be a slight improvement from +91k in September.
Consensus: +100k; Last +114k. MAP: 3
12:30: FOMC rate decision and statement. The FOMC will release its standard statement at 12:30 today. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference and the publication of FOMC forecasts will follow at 14:15.
A few points are worth highlighting. Goldman does not expect the FOMC to ease policy at this meeting, either through its actions (i.e. additional asset purchases) or through its words (i.e. a lengthening of the funds rate commitment from the current mid-2013 date). Second, while it expects that Fed officials will eventually take steps toward greater transparency—possibly including a published forecast for the federal funds rate—today’s meeting is still probably too early for such a move. This topic will likely come up in Chairman Bernanke’s post-meeting press conference. Third, any changes to the statement should be minor, but they will likely be in a more upbeat direction, given the improvement in financial conditions and better tone to the data. For example, the committee may replace the phrase “significant downside risks” with just “downside risks.” Finally, Fed officials will roll out forecasts for 2014 for the first time. Goldman expects them to show a “central tendency” forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2014 of 7.1%-7.6%.
14:15: Fed Chairman Bernanke press conference.
20:00: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at awards dinner. No Q&A.
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