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Today's Economic Data Docket - GDP And Jackson Hole

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While all eyes will be on Bernanke at around 10 am, the first GDP revision will be quite a stressful number too should it come below 1% as many (but not the Wall Street consensus) predict. Elsewhere, millions of East Coasters will be feverishly hitting F5 on weather.com to see how much closer they are with insurance company busting destiny.

8:30: GDP (Q2-2nd): Small downward revision. Data released since the Commerce Department’s advance estimate of Q2 GDP point to a downward revision to 1.1% (quarter-over-quarter, annualized) from 1.3% previously reported. The downward revision mostly reflects weaker inventory building. Goldman expects final sales—GDP excluding the effects of inventories—to be revised up to 1.2% from 1.1% previously. Among the other components are weaker residential investment and net exports, offset by higher business investment, government spending and consumption.
GDP: GS: +1.1%; Consensus: +1.1%; Last (Q2-Adv) +1.3%.
 
9:55: Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (August-final): Small gain? Higher-frequency measures of consumer sentiment have improved since the beginning of August, pointing to a stabilization or perhaps small increase in the University of Michigan sentiment index.
Consensus: 55.8; Last: 54.9 (August-prelim).
 
10:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on “Near- and Long-term Prospects for the US Economy” at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference (no Q&A). Goldman expects three main elements in the speech: 1) a discussion of the Fed’s revised outlook, where it thinks the chairman could sound constructive relative to the market consensus; 2) a defense of the Fed’s previous easing actions, including the new 2013 commitment language; and 3) a discussion of easing options. With regard to the easing options, look for Bernanke to mention the potential for expanding or changing the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet, perhaps adding greater detail on the latter. A more comprehensive discussion of easing options is more likely to turn up in the FOMC minutes released Tuesday.

 

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Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:32 | 1603297 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Gold 1791... btfd...

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:36 | 1603303 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

Go Benny Go!

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:55 | 1603308 saulysw
saulysw's picture

If QE3 is the worst possible outcome - does that make it assured?

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:15 | 1603374 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

Throw GrandMa under the bus...what other alternative is there in the medium to long term run?

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:44 | 1603316 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Doesn't appear to be one of the more spectacular weekends to hold long over.  Today is pivotal. Problem is it's usually the day after dingdong speaks that reverses and combined with the hurricane.......I think ill be concentrating on beer drinking.  It's ok, if we miss a rally it just means another shorting opportunity is in the works.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:45 | 1603320 freethinker4now
freethinker4now's picture

Assured mutual destruction, drop the Bernanke Money bomb

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:47 | 1603322 nah
nah's picture

how long can they wait for more QE, really, Obama 2012 and all

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:50 | 1603326 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

How many times do I have to keep refreshing the page to see the cute asian girl ad again?

 

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:52 | 1603329 youngman
youngman's picture

Germany stock market down 25% this month...and no change in the Euro USD trade...very wierd...

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:55 | 1603331 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"its the end of the world as we know it...and i feeeel fiiiine."

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:59 | 1603340 Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

Here's a video about the 16 trillion dollar audit of the Federal Reserve to get you ready for Jackson Hole today.

http://www.youtube.com/user/zedgehero?feature=mhee

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:00 | 1603342 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Well its Friday and its daylight so its time for a Vodka orange for breakfast (never from concentrate) I hope there is no QE3 Iam so sick of waiting for this collapse I had to add Vodka 

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:04 | 1603348 chunga
chunga's picture

Whatever Probanke says...the top-down view indicates (to those at the top) the banking putsch is complete.

They are financial predators, and we -- everybody whose net worth is less than eight figures -- are their prey. Since they can't literally eat us alive instead they eat our money, our livelihood, our hopes, and our dreams.

While this group isn't exclusively bankers, and all bankers don't fit into this category, predators seem to be more common in consumer banking than elsewhere. Thanks to a combination of corruption, ignorance, and incompetence, their supporters have done a great job keeping them alive.

The US is in a dark place, where the absolutely most reckless, irresponsible bankers -- who made the most reckless, irresponsible decisions -- are receiving massive government subsidies. The price tag will be picked up by future generations.

That is, we are collectively putting our children into deep hoc lest bankers suffer the sting of a firm slap by the invisible hand, all the while whining that the free market continues to function.

Bankers, along with their supporters in government, tried to portray the interests of Wall St. and Main St. aligned. They aren't. There hasn't been a "class war" from the middle class towards the rich, but there's been a ferocious one the other direction.

They're fighting you. It's not because they don't like you -- some are crazed sociopaths, but most aren't .. it's just a game to them. They're playing to win; you don't even know the game is on, much less the rules.

Take heart. Slowly but surely Main St. is fighting back. They have the money but we have the numbers.

Rogue Foreclosure Mill Harmon Law at it again.

This time the wild and crazy bunch attempts to defy an Order to Stay by a Federal Judge.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:17 | 1603378 David99
David99's picture
Ben made Hurricane from Hole will be 100 times bigger than Hurricane Irene

I hope every one has insurance policy for Hurricane Ben

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:56 | 1603468 Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

Benny and Jack Hole are forever linked in my mind as one.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:27 | 1603563 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

We have a sinking economy living on credit, not production, borrowing money, not making money.

Regardless of what Bernanke says, currency printing (and resulting inflation) is the picture going forward.

Even if the US dollar is the world reserve currency, living on borrowed money created out of thin air can't go on forever.  Eventually debt gets so huge and the currency gets so diluted people just lose confidence in it. 

It's called currency collapse.  Loss of confidence in the currency.

Bernanke can't control that. He can't control people's confidence in the value of the currency.  The more he prints, the greater the risk of currency collapse.

Gold is the best barometer of confidence in the currency.  When confidence in the currency collapses, gold price skyrockets.

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