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Today's Economic Data Docket - Initial Claims And Last Bond Auction Of The Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Calm before the storm today, with just weekly initial jobless claims (20 out of 20 400K+ weeks with one or two very small exceptions) on the economic docket, ahead of the last bond auction of the week, which should send total US debt on the verge of breaching the provision ceiling of $14.695 trillion.
 
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of August 20): Still low? The weekly initial jobless claims figures have remained surprisingly low despite signs of deterioration in other indicators. This may mean that the economy has not weakened as significantly as the survey-based data (e.g. the Philadelphia Fed index) suggest.
Consensus:  405,000; Last: 408,000. MAP: 2

11:00: Treasury will announce a projected $60.0 billion of 3- and 6-month bills.

11:00: Another POMO- The Open Market Desk will buy nominal Treasury coupons in the 04/15/2013 - 02/15/2041 maturity range.

13:00: Treasury auctions $29.0 billion 7-year note to raise all new cash.

 

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Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:43 | 1598553 ZeroPower
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Upside surprise to 420k?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:45 | 1598556 DefiantSurf
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not til next week with the prior week negative revision

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:49 | 1598564 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

I don't think this will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a 380-390k print.  Something that drives the bull rally higher until all of the data starts to turn really negative.  Prob won't happen, though. 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:56 | 1598573 MichaelG
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399.995k.  They'll forget to round up to the nearest whole person whilst diddling the figgers.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:57 | 1598578 Gibu The Great
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It's funny how it always works that way! 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:52 | 1598568 Derpin USA
Derpin USA's picture

Jobless claims will not just surprise but shock the shit out of the hopium addicts. 440-450K. Book it.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:54 | 1598571 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

I would like to see a 440-450 print today, but I don't think we are there yet.  Plus, CNBS would find a way to spin it as a positive (i.e. The Bernank most definitely will launch QE3 XTREME to save us all). 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:04 | 1598594 Derpin USA
Derpin USA's picture

A one week spike in jobless claims, even off by 15%, is not enough to change the Fed's decision to forego QEasing until the market crashes much further. They're going to stay behind the scenes with secret loans and cross-Atlantic fx lines in an attempt to stave off the credit collapse in Europe (and BofA).

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:07 | 1598599 Gibu The Great
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I was just alluding to what CNBS would be talking to all day long.  "Don't worry, this forces the Fed to act, we're saved!"

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:11 | 1598609 Derpin USA
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I suppose, but it'd be in vain. If I'm right, the selloff today will be large, and tomorrow's will be larger.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:53 | 1598569 THE DORK OF CORK
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In the interests of balance on this pro - gold site  , I would just like to say - I pity the fool that bought Gold in the last week or so.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye2JlyZwLTw

 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:57 | 1598576 Gibu The Great
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It really depends on your investment horizon.  I think most everyone here is buying physical gold with the intent to hold it... well... forever.  So if they paid $1900 for it, that might not look good now, but 10+ years from now it's going to look like a steal. 

A lot of people playing the paper trade got burned, I'm sure, but even if you bought paper last week you'd probably be looking pretty good a year from now. 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:25 | 1598632 THE DORK OF CORK
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Sure strategically if you have none of the stuff $1900 is as good as $2000 really .. but from a tactical perspective you got badly burned as the fever struck.

I am up to my tits in the stuff now  -   speaking as a euro buyer I won't get into this sauna until it reaches 950 - 1000 euro or the facts change a bit more.

Not expecting it to dip another $100 - $200 but who knows - the banks like making money out of volatility as that is all those poor broken creatures know.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:58 | 1598581 jelyfish
jelyfish's picture

Let's wait a week...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:59 | 1598583 Derpin USA
Derpin USA's picture

It would certainly be ill-advised to buy at a new record, but not necessarily wrong. Just not as correct as possible.

What I would pity is someone who bought at the record and sold right now out of fear. That's the true sucker who doesn't know why he's doing what he's doing.

My target for correction is around $1,600, but that may never happen depending upon what data is released and what Bernanke says.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:03 | 1598592 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

Agreed.  I'm looking at 1600-1650 as the most likely target.  That would pull us back down to gold's 50 day moving average in a healthy move. 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:09 | 1598602 Derpin USA
Derpin USA's picture

That would be rational, but I'm leaning towards hovering around $1,700 for the next 2-4 weeks. I think it'll just levitate for a while.

The ~30% drop from peak in fall of '08 gives thought to the possibility of a repeat since we're seeing the same thing happening again, but I think that because of how different the situation is now (Fed interventions) it won't suffer the same drop this time around. I think there's far more confidence in gold than there was at that time.

I figure a hover between $1,700-$1,750 for the foreseeable future.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:11 | 1598608 Gibu The Great
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I'd be perfectly happy with building a base around 1700-1750.  That definitely seems logical. 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 07:56 | 1598574 Hedge Hunter
Hedge Hunter's picture

Transitory POMO. Nothing to see here, please move along...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:00 | 1598587 Irish66
Irish66's picture

438-450

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:00 | 1598588 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

I don't see how the PhillyFed can out a -30 and not have an ugly claims number

 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:06 | 1598598 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

I think the real tell is going to be next Friday's August payrolls number.  I don't see how anyone would have been hiring much at all this month.  And I wouldn't be surprised to see a huge downward revision to last month's #. 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:10 | 1598605 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

ahh, thats nothing, wait til you see the the Q3 GDP and downward revision on Q2 GDP....

 

 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:12 | 1598611 Gibu The Great
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I wish I could fast foward to take a look at Q3 earnings. 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:16 | 1598616 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

if you could do that, you would be part of the problem....

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:30 | 1598648 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

IN my defense, I would travel forward in time, take a look at Q3 earnings, then just wait there for everyone to catch up.  I wouldn't come back and spill the beans or trade off of it.  ;)

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:34 | 1598656 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

You must be in politics, I almost believed you :)

 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:11 | 1598610 David99
David99's picture

All the data/ results are manipulated .

This Casino revolves around Helicopter Ben

If Printing Master Helicopter Ben can print few more trillions and gift it to fraud street gang than Dow @ 13,000

If Ben says "enough is enough" Dow below 9.000

Very simple

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:32 | 1598651 Gibu The Great
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417k.  No (immediate) reaction. 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 08:32 | 1598653 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

(double post)

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