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Today's Economic Data Docket - Market Moving Rumors; Also Claims, Philly Fed And Existing Home Sales
While the only market moving events today will come out of Europe, where we will learn just how much of a ponzi scheme the EFSF will be, we will also get largely irrelevant and ignored for anything but HFT kneejerks data on claims, the Philly Fed index, existing home sales, and speeches from several Fed officials.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of October 15): Steady? Jobless claims have held steady at around 400k recently. Consensus forecasts expect little change this week.
Consensus: 400,000; Last: 404,000. MAP: 2
10:00: Index of leading indicators (September): Components of the leading index were mixed last month, with a decline in stock prices and building permits, but increases in consumer sentiment and the ISM vendor performance index. Other known components of the index were about unchanged.
Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.3%.
10:00: Philadelphia Fed index (October): Another improvement. Despite a sizable gain last month, the Philadelphia Fed’s business conditions index remains low compared to other regional manufacturing surveys. In addition, key components of the Empire State index for October (shipments, new orders and employment) looked better than the headline. Goldman's predicted level of -7 would indicate an ongoing contraction, but at a slower rate than during the last two months.
GS: -7.0; Consensus: -9.6; Last -17.5. MAP: 4
10:00: Existing home sales (September): Sales slip back. Goldman forecasts a decline in existing home sales of 4.0% (mom), based on the recent deterioration in the pending home sales index. This follows an increase of 7.7% in existing home sales in August. Despite significant volatility, the trend in existing home sales has remained roughly flat over the last four years.
GS: -4.0%; Consensus: -2.5%; Last +7.7%. MAP: 2
10:15: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard makes opening remarks at research conference. President Bullard also plans a press briefing later in the day.
12:00: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart moderates panel at conference entitled “American Economy in Crisis: How Should We Respond?”
12:50: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto on “US Manufacturing and the Economic Outlook.”
18:00: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo on “Unemployment, the Labor Market, and the Economy.”
19:45: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on economic education.
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OK, so there are 9 straws in the pack. Which is the longer, which will drive up the DJIA 200 points on "fractionally better than expected (but to be downwards revised)"?
I pick "existing home sales".
I suppose there's a tenth; the never-old "Europe to be bailed out yet again" rumour, which has already driven up the DJIA by 2,500 points by now.
Reported by the Telegraph in the UK:
Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble says no agreement has been reached on how to expand the EFSF by leveraging it, but that Germany will oppose any involvement from the ECB in doing so.
That contradicts France's plan to use the bail-out fund as a bank that can borrow from the ECB.
In addition, Germany won't increase its contribution to the bail-out fund beyond the €211bn it has already committed too, and the fund overall will not increase from €440bn, a spokesman for Mr Schäuble said.
He said discussions between eurozone countries going on now are about how the exisiting money can be used most effectively, not about increasing the size of the fund. He said:
There is no discussion about raising it beyond 440 billion euros, that's it, finito.
oBLAMa again, we got him! must improve polls!
What's the 'MAP' number anyway? *blush*
I never saw the -700k jobs promised. Where is it?
"12:00: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart moderates panel at conference entitled “American Economy in Crisis: How Should We Respond?”"
Sounds like a snoozer - with the summer(s) of recovery, and all.
How should we respond - Shrug?