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Today's Economic Data Docket - New Home Sales, Richmond Fed, $95 Billion In Debt Issued

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two economic data points today - New home sales and the Richmond Fed index. Since LaVorgna just hiked his Richmond Fed estimate, leading the consensus to rise from -7 to -5, we would be particularly concerned about this number missing by a mile. Also, Treasury issues $95 billion in new 4 week, 52 week and 2 year debt, for net new cash of $46 billion.
 
10:00: New home sales (July): Small gain. Goldman forecasts that new home sales rose by 2% in July, following a small decline in June. New home sales have held in a tight range of about 275k to 325k for more than a year.
GS: +2.0%; Consensus: -0.6%; Last -1.0%. MAP: 2
 
10:00: Richmond Fed survey (August): Another weak survey? Given the sharp decline in the Philadelphia Fed index last week, GS will be watching the second-tier regional manufacturing reports with greater scrutiny. In addition to a manufacturing index, the Richmond Fed survey contains a separate set of questions sent to firms in service-providing industries, which is one of the few direct measures of services activity in the monthly indicator cycle.
Consensus: -5; Last -1.MAP: 1

10:00: July Mass Layoff Activity update: An uptick in mass layoff activity in July is to be expected, but overall the levels of large-scale job cuts will remain fairly low. Even with the slowing in the economy, most businesses are reluctant to lose skilled workers. There has been no widespread rebuilding of payrolls in the post-recession period, and companies are more likely to try to retain those workers they have after paring them sharply in early 2009.

11:30: Treasury will auction a $35.0 billion 4-week bill to raise $17.0 billion and a $25.0 billion 52-week bill, which will basically roll over the maturing

13:00: Treasury will auction a $35.0 billion 2-year note to paydown $6.998 billion.

 

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Tue, 08/23/2011 - 08:13 | 1589537 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Lavorgna and Shirley at it again!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 08:27 | 1589539 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Here's a good article on how the Philly Index is highly correlated with the S&P, and not economic activity. 

 

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/the-fear-of-self-fulfilling-prophec...

 

It'll be interesting to see if the Richmond Survey is also highly correlated with the S&P.  If so, it may be a brutal read.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 08:26 | 1589559 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'd love for Joey Bagodonuts to miss by a country mile, Im sick of all these professional crystal ball gazers with terrible track records. 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 09:33 | 1589794 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Oops. I wrote my check out for 95 gazillion not billion. NO PROB! There we go...fixed it! It's all good.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:03 | 1590028 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

Richmond Fed at -10.  Nice job, LaVorgna. 

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