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Today's Economic Data Docket - Q2 GDP

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Several important releases today, including the advance report for Q2 GDP, which consensus sees at 1.8% and Goldman is materially lower at 1.5%. A QE Lite POMO closes at 11:00 am. Chicago PMI and UMich consumer confidence round out the data, which will again be vastly inferior in market movery to headlines out of Europe and the US.
 
8:30: GDP (Q2-Advance): Another soft quarter & annual revisions. Goldman estimates that real GDP increased by just 1.5% (qoq ar) in the second quarter. Relative to Goldman's expectations earlier in the year, consumer spending was the major disappointment: available data suggest consumption growth of just 0.5% during the quarter. GS look for a moderate gain in business fixed investment, roughly flat housing investment, and some boost from inventory building. Government spending was likely a drag on growth overall, with weakness at the state and local level offsetting a small gain in federal government outlays.
 
Along with today’s Q2 GDP report, the BEA will also publish annual revisions to the US national accounts. These will incorporate new source data, updated seasonal adjustment, and presentational changes. Real growth rates in GDP and its components will be revised back to 2003, and there could be very small revisions to earlier years as well. Real GDP levels will be revised back to 1929. Revisions could be sizable in imports (due to new seasonal adjustment for imported petroleum) and possibly consumer spending (due to new source data).
GDP: GS: +1.5%; Consensus: +1.8%; Last (Q1-Final): +1.9%. MAP: 4
GDP price index: GS: +2.0%; Consensus: +2.0%; Last: +2.0%.
PCE core index: GS: +2.3%; Consensus: +2.3%; Last: +1.6%.
 
8:30: Employment cost index (Q2): Moderate wage growth.  We forecast that growth in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) retreated to 0.4% (qoq, not annualized) in Q2 after a spike in benefit growth in Q1.
GS: +0.4%; Consensus: +0.5%; Last: +0.6%. MAP: 0
 
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index (July). Small decline. Other regional manufacturing surveys available for the month of July point to a small decline in the Chicago purchasing mangers’ index.
GS: 58.5; Consensus: 60.0; Last: 61.1. MAP: 4
 
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (July final): Stable? Forecasters are looking for this index to stabilize after a sharp drop in the preliminary July report. Daily confidence measures for the latter part of July suggest possible downside risk to consensus forecasts.
Consensus: 64.0; Last: 63.8 (July prelim). MAP: 0

11:00: $2.5 - $3.0 billion POMO with Treasury buying bonds 01/31/2014-06/30/2015

15:15: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on monetary policy.

via GS, SMRA and ZH

 

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Fri, 07/29/2011 - 08:12 | 1503860 Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

This week I have an episode on GE and china and the jobs leaving the US and moving to China.

 

http://www.youtube.com/user/zedgehero?feature=mhee

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 08:13 | 1503861 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

I think we break the record today for the largest single day decline across all the chump stock boards....the ponzi is about to come to reality.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 08:18 | 1503870 Bob
Bob's picture

Per GS, consumer spending is the problem.  Love that generic "consumer" notion.  Perhaps we should focus more upon the fact that the people making most of the money--"Job Creators" in Newspeak--aren't consuming enough imported luxury goods. 

Wait a minute--that wouldn't help GDP at all, would it?

Thank God the finance industry continues to generate weatlh . . . imagine what GDP would be if it were reality-based.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 08:27 | 1503880 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The consumers out there just not spending their huge piles of dollars theyre all sitting on! Bastards!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 08:34 | 1503892 Bob
Bob's picture

Sonsabitches wouldn't know sacrifice if it ran them over!  Christ almighty, they don't even have jobs--so don't tell me they don't have time to get out there and do their part: Consume, you Bastards, consume!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 08:28 | 1503882 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Don't worry, I'm sure the CONfidence poll will come in with numbers above all expectations in the rainbow filled stratosphere and that will bring retail money rushing in to buy the dip. /sarc

 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 08:29 | 1503884 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Any other country would have had their debt rating dunked, but the rating agencies once again refuse to downgrade the US debt problem.  They were late in 2008 to downgrade until it was too late.  These agencies need to be dismantled, because they are not doing what they were designed to do, and they certainly are not there for the investor's sake.  We already know the PIIGS are crap, now it is time to tell the world that the US is crap...what are they waiting for?  Seems like a sham conspiracy to me.

They are scam agencies...shut em' down....they are worthless.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 08:32 | 1503896 Prepared
Prepared's picture

GDP SPANKING!!!!  Ohhhh that hurts like hell too!!

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:44 | 1507049 wwwmm
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Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:49 | 1507079 wwwmm
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