Today's Economic Data Docket - Services ISM And The Irrelevant Noise That Is The ADP
Today we get the completely irrelevant and "nothing but noise" ADP and the somewhat more relevant non-manufacturing ISM. Speaking of ADP, we wonder how many of the private layoffs this month will originate at ADP following years after years of wrong, wrong and more wrong data.
8:15: ADP employment report (July): Downside risks. Goldman's forecast of +50k for the BLS count of total nonfarm payrolls implies downside risk to the consensus forecast for this morning’s ADP private payroll report (+100k). Although the ADP forecast significantly overshot the BLS estimate of private payrolls in June, the pattern was reversed in May. Moreover, over the last three and six months the two measures have had roughly the same average monthly growth rate (around +125k and +160k, respectively).
Consensus: +100k; last +157k. MAP: 3
9:00: Treasury will announce 3-, 10-, and 30-year auction details. Sizes are projected to be as follows: A $32.0 billion 3-year note to raise all new cash, a $24.0 billion 10-year note to paydown $0.431 billion, and a $16.0 billion 30-year note to raise all new cash. The auctions will be held on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week and settle on August 15.
9:45: Fannie Mae will auction $1.0 billion 3 month and $1.0 billion 6 month benchmark bills
10:00: ISM non-manufacturing index (July): Forecast change. Following a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report on Monday, Goldman cut our forecast for the non-manufacturing ISM to 53.0 from 54.0 previously. As in the manufacturing survey, GS suspects that additional weakness could come from the employment component.
GS: 53.0; Consensus: 53.5; Last 53.3. MAP: 3
10:00: Factory orders (June): GDP revisions? The monthly factory orders report will include manufacturing inventories for June as well as possible revisions to durable goods orders and shipments. It may have implications for revisions to Q2 GDP growth.
GS: -1.0%; Consensus: -0.8%; Last +0.8%.
Source: GS, SMRA and ZH
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