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Today's Economic Data Docket - Services ISM And The Irrelevant Noise That Is The ADP
Today we get the completely irrelevant and "nothing but noise" ADP and the somewhat more relevant non-manufacturing ISM. Speaking of ADP, we wonder how many of the private layoffs this month will originate at ADP following years after years of wrong, wrong and more wrong data.
8:15: ADP employment report (July): Downside risks. Goldman's forecast of +50k for the BLS count of total nonfarm payrolls implies downside risk to the consensus forecast for this morning’s ADP private payroll report (+100k). Although the ADP forecast significantly overshot the BLS estimate of private payrolls in June, the pattern was reversed in May. Moreover, over the last three and six months the two measures have had roughly the same average monthly growth rate (around +125k and +160k, respectively).
Consensus: +100k; last +157k. MAP: 3
9:00: Treasury will announce 3-, 10-, and 30-year auction details. Sizes are projected to be as follows: A $32.0 billion 3-year note to raise all new cash, a $24.0 billion 10-year note to paydown $0.431 billion, and a $16.0 billion 30-year note to raise all new cash. The auctions will be held on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week and settle on August 15.
9:45: Fannie Mae will auction $1.0 billion 3 month and $1.0 billion 6 month benchmark bills
10:00: ISM non-manufacturing index (July): Forecast change. Following a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report on Monday, Goldman cut our forecast for the non-manufacturing ISM to 53.0 from 54.0 previously. As in the manufacturing survey, GS suspects that additional weakness could come from the employment component.
GS: 53.0; Consensus: 53.5; Last 53.3. MAP: 3
10:00: Factory orders (June): GDP revisions? The monthly factory orders report will include manufacturing inventories for June as well as possible revisions to durable goods orders and shipments. It may have implications for revisions to Q2 GDP growth.
GS: -1.0%; Consensus: -0.8%; Last +0.8%.
Source: GS, SMRA and ZH
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Challenger = strike 1 of 4 for unemployment data this week. Sell this market, buy $FAZ, gold, silver, and high yield safe names.
I truly can't remember the last time the ADP job report got something right.
I have no idea who hires these guys.
http://geraldcelente.proboards.com
True, however, it often does give us opportunities to enter/exit your strategy. Numbers that cause movement are viable regardless of their lack of accuracy. This is something we should all be used to with just about every number from Central Planning and their hired thugs!
True, however, it often does give us opportunities to enter/exit your strategy. Numbers that cause movement are viable regardless of their lack of accuracy. This is something we should all be used to with just about every number from Central Planning and their hired thugs!
how does cnbc report the challenger numbers and the obvious dying, soon to be dead us economy...than tada!!! liesman and adp proclaims the complete fucking opposite....how fucking stupid do you have to be to consider anything they say as truth...
ADP is never right.
Who in their right minds would listen to these fools? Wall St. that's who!
ADP is a joke, but it still moves markets.
So, when do I need to close the hatch on my bunker?
i will point it out again...the 1 and 3 mos. libor is going higher every day.....slowly i turn, step by step, inch by inch, niagara falls...
Tyler,
Did ZH post the GM Channel Stuffing yesterday? All the hubbub on the debt deal seemed to take over & I don't recall seeing it.
No doubt ADP will be up on McMeals, and ISM will be up on non-manufacturing. Sounds bullish.
sarc on/off, I forget which.
time to rally, our maxed our credit card has had a credit limit increase.
As expected, the "meaningless" ADP comes through with its massage, and shaves $5 off of gold, and .25 off of silver in 5 minutes. Wait until the non-M ISM at 10:00: it will use the same masage oil.
According to ADP, we added 114,000 jobs.
More bullshit we can't believe.
http://geraldcelente.proboards.com
...which means July NFP will come in at about 9K!
ADP should open up a fudge shop on Martha's Vineyard.
I love getting pre-reports that are always not in line, or not even close. It really helps A LOOOOTTTTTT. Hahaha
Speaking of ADP, we wonder how many of the private layoffs this month will originate at ADP following years after years of wrong, wrong and more wrong data.
Miaooowww! Seriously though, we need to know why the ADP figure is wildly out - I know it accounts for 40% of private payroll but this is still a dominant figure and should allow it to extrapolate for the whole population with some accuracy.
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