This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Today's Economic Data Docket - Services ISM And The Irrelevant Noise That Is The ADP

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today we get the completely irrelevant and "nothing but noise" ADP and the somewhat more relevant non-manufacturing ISM. Speaking of ADP, we wonder how many of the private layoffs this month will originate at ADP following years after years of wrong, wrong and more wrong data.
 
8:15: ADP employment report (July): Downside risks. Goldman's forecast of +50k for the BLS count of total nonfarm payrolls implies downside risk to the consensus forecast for this morning’s ADP private payroll report (+100k). Although the ADP forecast significantly overshot the BLS estimate of private payrolls in June, the pattern was reversed in May. Moreover, over the last three and six months the two measures have had roughly the same average monthly growth rate (around +125k and +160k, respectively).
Consensus: +100k; last +157k. MAP: 3

9:00: Treasury will announce 3-, 10-, and 30-year auction details. Sizes are projected to be as follows: A $32.0 billion 3-year note to raise all new cash, a $24.0 billion 10-year note to paydown $0.431 billion, and a $16.0 billion 30-year note to raise all new cash. The auctions will be held on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week and settle on August 15.

9:45: Fannie Mae will auction $1.0 billion 3 month and $1.0 billion 6 month benchmark bills

10:00: ISM non-manufacturing index (July): Forecast change. Following a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report on Monday, Goldman cut our forecast for the non-manufacturing ISM to 53.0 from 54.0 previously. As in the manufacturing survey, GS suspects that additional weakness could come from the employment component.
GS: 53.0; Consensus: 53.5; Last 53.3. MAP: 3
 
10:00: Factory orders (June): GDP revisions? The monthly factory orders report will include manufacturing inventories for June as well as possible revisions to durable goods orders and shipments. It may have implications for revisions to Q2 GDP growth.
GS: -1.0%; Consensus: -0.8%; Last +0.8%.

Source: GS, SMRA and ZH

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 08/03/2011 - 07:59 | 1519942 goldencross10
goldencross10's picture

Challenger = strike 1 of 4 for unemployment data this week. Sell this market, buy $FAZ, gold, silver, and high yield safe names. 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:00 | 1519945 oobrien
oobrien's picture

I truly can't remember the last time the ADP job report got something right.

I have no idea who hires these guys.

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:11 | 1519979 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

True, however, it often does give us opportunities to enter/exit your strategy. Numbers that cause movement are viable regardless of their lack of accuracy. This is something we should all be used to with just about every number from Central Planning and their hired thugs!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:11 | 1519980 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

True, however, it often does give us opportunities to enter/exit your strategy. Numbers that cause movement are viable regardless of their lack of accuracy. This is something we should all be used to with just about every number from Central Planning and their hired thugs!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:31 | 1520030 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

how does cnbc report the challenger numbers and the obvious dying, soon to be dead us economy...than tada!!!  liesman and adp proclaims the complete fucking opposite....how fucking stupid do you have to be to consider anything they say as truth...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:04 | 1519958 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

ADP is never right.

 

Who in their right minds would listen to these fools? Wall St. that's who!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:07 | 1519966 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

ADP is a joke, but it still moves markets. 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:07 | 1519969 GIANTKILR
GIANTKILR's picture

So, when do I need to close the hatch on my bunker?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:09 | 1519974 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i will point it out again...the 1 and 3 mos. libor is going higher every day.....slowly i turn, step by step, inch by inch, niagara falls...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:15 | 1519988 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Tyler,

Did ZH post the GM Channel Stuffing yesterday?  All the hubbub on the debt deal seemed to take over & I don't recall seeing it.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:19 | 1520000 espirit
espirit's picture

No doubt ADP will be up on McMeals, and ISM will be up on non-manufacturing.  Sounds bullish.

sarc on/off, I forget which.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:21 | 1520006 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

time to rally, our maxed our credit card has had a credit limit increase.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:21 | 1520007 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

As expected, the "meaningless" ADP comes through with its massage, and shaves $5 off of gold, and .25 off of silver in 5 minutes.  Wait until the non-M ISM at 10:00: it will use the same masage oil. 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:22 | 1520013 oobrien
oobrien's picture

According to ADP, we added 114,000 jobs.

More bullshit we can't believe.

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:26 | 1520020 Steelpulse
Steelpulse's picture

...which means July NFP will come in at about 9K!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:24 | 1520016 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

ADP should open up a fudge shop on Martha's Vineyard.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 08:26 | 1520018 Shocker
Shocker's picture

I love getting pre-reports that are always not in line, or not even close. It really helps A LOOOOTTTTTT. Hahaha

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 09:47 | 1520250 hackettlad
hackettlad's picture

Speaking of ADP, we wonder how many of the private layoffs this month will originate at ADP following years after years of wrong, wrong and more wrong data.

Miaooowww!  Seriously though, we need to know why the ADP figure is wildly out - I know it accounts for 40% of private payroll but this is still a dominant figure and should allow it to extrapolate for the whole population with some accuracy.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:41 | 1667349 chinawholesaler
chinawholesaler's picture

China Wholesale
Wholesale Tag

Manicure Set
Safety Products
Wholesale Mirror

Wholesale Pen
Wholesale Whistle
China Wholesale

Audio Video Equipment
Wholesale Memory Card
Poncho Raincoat

Reflective Safety Vest
Gift Box
Tape Measure

Wholesale Golf Products
Book Light
Wholesale Bedding

Patient Care Products
Wholesale Calculator
Wholesale Pin

Wholesale Puzzle
Silicone Products
Wholesale Massager

Wholesale Swimming Products
Men Beauty Care
Book Light

Pen Holder
Outdoor Leisure Products
Coin Bank

Recorder Pen
Wholesale Flag
Wine Set

Wholesale Ruler
Wholesale Sticker
Wholesale Halloween Gift

Wholesale Lighter
Wholesale Scarf
Wholesale Lanyard

Wholesale Glass
Wholesale Thermometer
Wholesale Vuvuzela

Home Appliances
Wholesale Lighter
Wholesale Jewelry

Heating Products

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!