Aside from the ECB rate decision TBA imminently, the key economic data in this news heavy day will be Trade, jobless claims and the speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke, who received quite an earful by the GOP candidates yesterday.
8:30: The US trade balance (July): Higher exports. Goldman forecasts that the trade balance narrowed in July, to -$51.0bn from -$53.1bn previously. The improvement reflects an expected rebound in real goods exports following a cumulative decline of 4.6% over the previous two months. As the first month of the third quarter, the trade report could have an impact on our bean-count estimate of GDP growth.
GS: -$51.0bn, Consensus: -$51.0bn; Last -$53.1bn. MAP: 2
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of September 3): Steady? Except for a strike-related spike in the week of August 20, initial jobless claims have been steady at around 400-410k.
Consensus: 405,000; Last: 409,000. MAP: 2
11:00: Treasury will announce 3- and 6-month bills along with the 3-, 10-, and 30-year auction details. Sizes are project the sizes to be as follows: A combined $56.0 billion of 3- and 6-month bills, a $30.0 billion 3-year note, a $21.0 billion reopening of the 2 1/4% of 08/15/21 10-year note, and a $13.0 billion reopening of the 3 3/4% of 08/15/41 30-year bond. Upon full settlement of these next weekend, the debt transitory debt ceiling will be breached.
13:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on “The US Economic Outlook.” Compared to his remarks at Jackson Hole, Goldman expects that Bernanke’s speech today will add more detail on the outlook but send a similar message overall. His remarks may list the easing options currently under consideration by the FOMC (as discussed in the minutes).
15:00: Consumer credit (July): Another gain? Consumer credit growth surged in June to the highest level since 2007. Both non-revolving debt and revolving debt (mostly credit cards) rose significantly. The pickup in growth—if sustained—could be evidence that easier lending standards for consumers are starting to have an effect.
Consensus: +$6.0bn; Last +$15.5bn.
Source: GS, SMRA, ZH