Today's Economic Data - Second Estimate Of Q3 GDP And FOMC Minutes
We expect a very low volume day, in which even headlines become even more sparse (assuming Commerzbank does not file or do something stupid) and the key economic events, Q3 GDP revision and the FOMC minutes, have an outsized impact on stocks due to abysmally low liquidity.
Here is what to expect:
8:30: GDP (Q3-second est.): Downward revision. Based on data released since the advance estimate, Goldman expects that Q3 GDP growth will be revised down to 2.1% (annualized) from 2.5% originally reported. The revision mostly reflects weaker inventories: growth in final sales (GDP ex-inventories) should be revised up to 3.9% from 3.6% previously. Growth in consumer spending will be unchanged at 2.4%, and growth in business fixed investment will be revised down slightly (to 14% from 16%). The revised estimates should show a larger boost to GDP growth from net exports.
GDP: GS: +2.1%; Consensus: +2.5%; Last (Q3-advance est.) +2.5%.
10:00: Richmond Fed survey (November): Improving? Regional manufacturing surveys released for November so far—the Philadelphia Fed index and the Empire State index—showed mixed results, but in general look consistent with low positive growth in the sector.
Consensus: -2; Last -6. MAP: 1
13:00: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota gives speech titled “Looking Back at Three Years of Federal Reserve Action.”
14:00: FOMC minutes (November 1-2 meeting): Communication options. Minutes from the 1-2 November FOMC meeting will likely include a detailed discussion of possible changes in Fed communication. Fed officials are expected to have discussed nominal GDP targeting, inflation targeting, policy rules such as the one advocated by President Evans, and the prospect of publishing a forecasted path for the federal funds rate. Of these options, we think the committee is most likely to implement a funds rate forecast. The minutes may also mention the prospect of additional asset purchases, which have been discussed recently by New York Fed President Dudley and other Fed officials.
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