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Today's Economic Data - Second Estimate Of Q3 GDP And FOMC Minutes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We expect a very low volume day, in which even headlines become even more sparse (assuming Commerzbank does not file or do something stupid) and the key economic events, Q3 GDP revision and the FOMC minutes, have an outsized impact on stocks due to abysmally low liquidity.

Here is what to expect:

8:30: GDP (Q3-second est.): Downward revision.  Based on data released since the advance estimate, Goldman expects that Q3 GDP growth will be revised down to 2.1% (annualized) from 2.5% originally reported. The revision mostly reflects weaker inventories: growth in final sales (GDP ex-inventories) should be revised up to 3.9% from 3.6% previously. Growth in consumer spending will be unchanged at 2.4%, and growth in business fixed investment will be revised down slightly (to 14% from 16%). The revised estimates should show a larger boost to GDP growth from net exports.

GDP: GS: +2.1%; Consensus: +2.5%; Last (Q3-advance est.) +2.5%.

 
10:00: Richmond Fed survey (November): Improving? Regional manufacturing surveys released for November so far—the Philadelphia Fed index and the Empire State index—showed mixed results, but in general look consistent with low positive growth in the sector.
Consensus: -2; Last -6. MAP: 1
 
13:00: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota gives speech titled “Looking Back at Three Years of Federal Reserve Action.”
 
14:00: FOMC minutes (November 1-2 meeting): Communication options. Minutes from the 1-2 November FOMC meeting will likely include a detailed discussion of possible changes in Fed communication. Fed officials are expected to have discussed nominal GDP targeting, inflation targeting, policy rules such as the one advocated by President Evans, and the prospect of publishing a forecasted path for the federal funds rate. Of these options, we think the committee is most likely to implement a funds rate forecast. The minutes may also mention the prospect of additional asset purchases, which have been discussed recently by New York Fed President Dudley and other Fed officials.

 

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Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:12 | 1901976 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

US dillusional reports continue.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:24 | 1902012 michaelsmith_9
michaelsmith_9's picture

Equities may remain heavy as we head into the Holiday.  Here is a look at the ES, DX, EURUSD, and the AUDUSD.    http://bit.ly/uYY4ZY

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:25 | 1902016 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture
Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:33 | 1902042 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

2.0%!  Even Goldman was too conservative!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:43 | 1902083 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

A more interesting question would be: What are these so-called "Experts" paid (salary/bonuses) to make smart decisions like investing in MF Global? A handsome penny I'm sure.

Greece's Government Bond Yield for 10 Year Notes averaged 5.42 percent reaching an historical high of 28.65 percent in November of 2011 ...
Gee, almost too good to be true? Oh wait!
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:48 | 1902106 imsaul0968
imsaul0968's picture

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