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Today's Economic Docket: All Eyes On The NFP
Everyone will focus on the Non Farm Payrolls report, which even Goldman expects will be just a shade higher than negative. We, for what it's worth, are confident that when all the revisions are said and done, and when removing the birth/death adjustment, both the headline, and the private jobs number will be negative.
Goldman summarizes:
8:30: Employment Report (August): Slow growth. Yesterday we cut our forecast for nonfarm payroll employment to +25k from +50k previously. The forecast change reflected: 1) the decline in the ISM employment index; 2) more pessimistic sentiment about the job market in recent consumer surveys; 3) fewer online job postings; and 4) a relatively soft ADP report. In our view, these results point to a reduced pace of hiring activity during the month. A decline in tax receipts in recent weeks also potentially signals job market distress. There are a few special factors to look for in the report. First, the strike at Verizon should hold back private payroll gains. According to the BLS’s Strike Report, the impact is expected to be a reduction of 45k in the “information services” category (excluding this effect, our forecast for total nonfarm payroll employment would therefore be 70k). Second, the conclusion of the government shutdown in Minnesota should add 20-25k workers to state government payrolls.
Despite limited job gains, we expect the unemployment rate to remain flat at 9.1% due to weak labor force growth. The labor force participation rate—the share of the working-age population working or looking for work—has continued its decline this year, hitting the lowest point since January 1984 at 63.9% in July. A few weeks ago we showed that the "structural" drivers of participation should continue to push down the aggregate participation rate going forward.
Payrolls: GS: +25k; Consensus: +68k; Last +117k. MAP: 5
Unemployment: GS 9.1%; Consensus: 9.1%; Last 9.1%. MAP: 5
Earnings: GS +0.1%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last: +0.4%.
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"weak labor force growth..." Code for he post 99-ers dropping off the rolls at a robust rate.
At least the WH declaration of "9% 4eva" gives the manipulators the month off from overly bastardizing the birth/death adjustment.
Put me down for 2 packs o' smokes at a print of -8K.
Like this pig casino cares...
Taking into consideration that some of the Verizon workers
are back to work, I place my bet on 90k+ NFP.
Goldman always wrong, intentionally or not, this is
the other story.
Place your bets.
Here's something I don't understand.
1. If you pay somebody on a monthly basis a fixed sum of money. Isn't that the same as having somebody on your payroll?
2. Money = paper.
3. Foodstamps = paper
4. So if somebody receives foodstamps and a monthly basis, isn't that the same as having somebody on your payroll?
DOESN'T THAT MEAN NOBODY IS UNEMPLOYED?!!!
ALL HEIL OBAMA!!!
SD, you are on to something (yet again)! Let's do some math...
U.S. labor borce of 139 million - "official" unemployed of 14 Million = 125 million employed
ADD: 45 million food stamp recipients = 170 million employed
And VOILA! The employment rate is 122%
Stocks are way undervalued, n'est-ce pas?
Here's what they said on Bllomberg this morning: " If the jobs number is bad, it will actually be good because then Bernake will be able to implement QE3 and it will be more likely that Obama will be able to implement his jobs program to revive the economy".
In other words, if the economy is getting worse, it will be good because Bernake and Obama will then be able to revive the economy.
That sounds about right ... we'll print some more money to create a handful of jobs to be paid for later by the few that still have jobs.
the problem is that Obufu is running out of green companies to hand money to, as they are bankrupting after taking the last "green shoots" money.
And what happened to all of the money allocated to the "shovel ready jobs", now we need more money to put in a "infrastructure bank" to fund more not "shovel ready jobs?"
I feel like I'm watching an episode of Monty Python!
Surf:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p4-vPrcDBo
"Shovel ready wasn't as 'shovel ready' as we expected."
But I'm sure they'll get it right THIS time.
- Ned
Yesterday I received a cheque in the mail for overpaid income tax - £744.92.
That is all being blown on some physical silver just as soon as it clears into my bank account.
WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO.
Buy scotch and beer instead, it's cheaper. :))) Silver at 42?
Ones it cut in half, I'd considering a buying opp.
from market standpoint and real time fin data analysis labor report WILL BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED AND
PROBAbLY 100+ ths..
alx
Get ready for a NFP number of 111K (Including a Birth/Death number of 256K) This will send the markets up 321 points at the open.
or not....
the report will say whatever they want it to say.
and the markets will close green again....
The show must go on!
I propose tracking another economic metric, UGB (Useless Government Bureaucrat). This would directly correspond to the legislative bloat index and would track government inefficiency...
August NFP ... U N C H A N G E D ?????!!!!!!
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD !!!!!!!!!!!
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