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Today's Economic Docket: ISM, Claims, Labor Costs, Mini POMO
Today's economic data: the much anticipated ISM, claims (ex striking Verizonites collecting benefits), and C-grade data like construction outlays and productiviity and costs. Car makers announce August sales: look for repeat indications of dealer channel stuffing by you know how.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of August 27): Strike impact fades. According to the Department of Labor, last week’s initial claims figures were boosted by “at least 8,500” (reported by Bloomberg) due to a strike at Verizon. Claims could fall this week as the effects of the strike fade.
Consensus: 410,000; Last: 417,000. MAP: 2
8:30: Productivity and costs (Q2-Final): Downward revisions. A downward revision in real gross value added in the nonfarm business sector implies a likely downward revision to Q2 productivity, and an upward revision to unit labor costs.
Productivity: GS: -0.7%; Consensus: -0.5%; Last (Q2-pre) -0.3%.
Unit labor costs: GS +2.6%; Consensus: +2.4%; Last (Q2-pre) +2.2%.
10:00: Construction outlays (July): Small gain. Goldman's forecast calls for a small increase in nominal construction expenditures on a gain in nonresidential building. Residential construction likely remained stable at low levels.
GS: +0.5%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.2%. MAP: 1
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (August): Upside risks? Regional manufacturing surveys available for August point to a likely decline in the national ISM. Goldmanforecast a drop to 48.5 from 50.9, in line with consensus. Yesterday’s better-than-expected Chicago purchasing managers’ index suggests some upside risk to the forecast.
GS: 48.5; Consensus: 48.5; Last: 50.9. MAP: 5
11:00: QE Lite POMO. The Open Market Desk will buy nominal Treasury coupons in the 03/15/2014 - 08/31/2015 maturity range.
12:00: Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke on “Rebalancing the Housing Market”.
Afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (August). Stable. Manufacturer comments during the month were consistent with total vehicle sales stable at around 12.0 million units (saar). This would be up from May and April, but still below Q1 levels.
Total: GS: 12.0m; Consensus: 12.1m; Last: 12.2m.
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Amazing how the sell side who were so bullish a month ago are rapidly downgrading "consensus" to ensure that numbers come in above expectations. I heard one analyst say the numbers don't have to be good, just better than expected. What a circus!
So long as productivity and manufacturing are going down(as stated in the post), the financial situation is going to get worse and worse long-term.
I don't see how anyone can lipstick that pig and not be lying scum.
Ah, I just learned something from cnbs. Lower productivity is a good thing now since it leads to higher wages. It's all good.
The Soviets used to use the same line.....production is beatin expectations...the comrads are doing well...lol
Are the "comrades" spending too much time checking their portfolios?
Grab a fucking oar!
I just received a cheque in the mail for overpaid income tax - £744.92.
That is all being blown on some physical silver just as soon as it clears into my bank account.
WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO, WOOHOO.
S&P500 big picture remains bearish and this will ALWAYS exert the most influence. The only thing GUARANTEED is that the bearish medium/long term cycle will have the upper hand.
FX medium to long term outlook continues: Euro bearish and USD bullish.
As mentioned many times - bring on the OVERDUE USD rally.
IMPORTANT CHART HERE.
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