While the deranged, schizophrenic market could not care less about actual facts and data, and continues to trade purely on month end liquidations, and the now traditional bailout rumors, here is what to expect in terms of scheduled releases today: Personal income and spending, Chicago NAPM and consumer sentiment indexes. Also today the Fed will announce the first Operation Twist schedule which will consists of 13 bond purchases in October, as well as 6 sales.
8:30: Personal income and outlays (August): Weak growth. Both average hourly earnings and total hours worked (private payrolls times the average workweek) declined during August, suggesting limited growth in nominal incomes. In addition, relatively soft retail sales suggest only a moderate gain in consumer spending—and probably a drop in real terms.
Income: GS +0.1%; Consensus: +0.1%; Last +0.3%.
Spending: GS: +0.1%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.8%. MAP: 1
Core PCE prices: GS: +0.1%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.2%.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index (September). Another decline? The Chicago purchasing managers’ index is still elevated compared to other regional manufacturing surveys (e.g. the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed indexes). Goldman has forecast another decline this month—to 54.5 from 56.5 previously. The large drop in the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) points to possible downside risks.
GS: 54.5; Consensus: 55.0; Last: 56.5. MAP: 4
9:55: Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (September-final): Steady? Consensus forecasts expect an unchanged result for the final Consumer Sentiment reading for September. The Rasmussen daily confidence index deteriorated late in the month, suggesting possible downside risks to the consensus forecast.
Consensus: 57.8; Last: 57.8 (September-prelim).
11:00: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard scheduled to speak (topic TBD). Q&A expected.