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Today's Economic Events: CPI, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

CPI, housing starts, jobless claims - last week will almost certainly to be revised to over 400k for the first time in months, and the Philadelphia Fed index.

8:30: Consumer Price Index (December): Low core inflation. Goldman forecasts that the overall CPI increased by 0.2% (month-over-month) in December, up from a flat reading in November. Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected PPI may suggest downside risk to headline CPI forecast. Goldman forecasts that the core CPI increased by just 0.10%, down from +0.17% last month. Relative to November the firm expects lower inflation in apparel prices, partially offset by an acceleration in rent inflation (including owners’ equivalent rent).
CPI: GS: +0.18%; Consensus: +0.1%; Last -0.02 %.
Core CPI: GS: +0.10%; Consensus: +0.1%; last +0.17%. MAP: 4

8:30: Housing starts (December): Improving. Several housing-related indicators have shown encouraging signs of improvement in recent months. Most recently, the NAHB reported yesterday that its measure of homebuilder confidence increased to a post-recession high of 25 in January. The consensus forecasts a small decline in housing starts, which likely reflects an expected payback in multi-family building after a 25% surge in November.
Starts: GS: +5.0%; Consensus: -0.7%; Last +9.3%. MAP: 1
Permits: Consensus: -0.2%; Last +5.6%.

8:30: Jobless claims (Week of January 14): Declining again? Initial jobless claims have backed up in recent weeks, rising to 399k last week from a low of 366k in mid-December. Today’s and next week’s claims reports will clarify if the job market is in fact slowing.
Consensus:  384,000; Last: 399,000.

10:00: Philadelphia Fed index (January): Unchanged. Goldman forecasts that the Philadelphia Fed’s business activity index was about unchanged at +7.0 in January. The improvement in the Empire State index for January—reported earlier this week—may suggest upside risks to this forecast.
GS: +7.0; Consensus: +10.3; Last +6.8. 

Source: Goldman

 

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Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:23 | 2077434 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

this is easy to front run...

manipulated data as to support the coordinated (see: regulators, govt, sell-side, MSM, CB's) foundational plan to sucker retail back into the money harvesting meat grinder.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:25 | 2077439 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Today's script is already written.

Massive futures contract purchases by the Fed, gap up about 10 handles, then violently defend against any selling all day long.

I would think this would get old.  But, evidently not.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:25 | 2077443 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I predict the core CPI to be lollipop dragons.

If i get that one right then Housing starts will be a pixie dancing on the head of a pin.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:29 | 2077451 kralizec
kralizec's picture

We love bullshit numbers!  Hey, give these clowns some credit, it's not easy juggling jello!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:34 | 2077454 silver500
silver500's picture

US Core CPI 0.1%

(energy and food are non core of course as real people dont use them)

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:33 | 2077460 james larson
james larson's picture

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 521,613 in the week ending January 14, a decrease of 124,606 from the previous week. There were 549,688 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent during the week ending January 7, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,076,626, a decrease of 84,257 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.7 percent and the volume was 4,652,805.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending December 31 was 7,826,665, an increase of 493,566 from the previous week.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:35 | 2077465 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Wow look at jobless claims. Where is David Tepper the Obama reelection put is in.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:45 | 2077477 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Wow, just fantabulous numbers, let the bulls charge!

At least until the next revision...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:45 | 2077478 james larson
james larson's picture

Actual numbers leave me with "blah" but at CNN via seasonal adjustment "magic" things are really better.

 

Breaking News

Jobless claims plunge to 352,000 in latest week, lowest in nearly 4 years. Consumer prices rise at 3% annual rate after flat December

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 09:47 | 2077482 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

CPI flat, housing starts worse than expected, jobless claims better than expected.  Call it a draw?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:01 | 2077518 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Why the fuck would I care about the psychological state of unemployed home builders?

Do I really need to know if they feel the need to pretend things are improving, when asked?

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:30 | 2077547 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

The great contrarian sees S&P kick off the Euro endgame with downgrades  and says quite rationally, "short this pig".

WTF is wrong with me?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:30 | 2077606 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Sorry, the jobless claims fell by less than any 2nd week since 2009. But the media will report a wonderful jobless claims number! Look at the charts. 

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/initial-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected-housing-starts-fall-4-1/

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:58 | 2077706 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Nice link - thanks

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:55 | 2077699 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

From MarketWatch:

 

About 7.83 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week ended Dec. 31, up 493,566 from the prior week.

 

That sums things up nicely.

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