Today's Economic Events: CPI, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed
CPI, housing starts, jobless claims - last week will almost certainly to be revised to over 400k for the first time in months, and the Philadelphia Fed index.
8:30: Consumer Price Index (December): Low core inflation. Goldman forecasts that the overall CPI increased by 0.2% (month-over-month) in December, up from a flat reading in November. Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected PPI may suggest downside risk to headline CPI forecast. Goldman forecasts that the core CPI increased by just 0.10%, down from +0.17% last month. Relative to November the firm expects lower inflation in apparel prices, partially offset by an acceleration in rent inflation (including owners’ equivalent rent).
CPI: GS: +0.18%; Consensus: +0.1%; Last -0.02 %.
Core CPI: GS: +0.10%; Consensus: +0.1%; last +0.17%. MAP: 4
8:30: Housing starts (December): Improving. Several housing-related indicators have shown encouraging signs of improvement in recent months. Most recently, the NAHB reported yesterday that its measure of homebuilder confidence increased to a post-recession high of 25 in January. The consensus forecasts a small decline in housing starts, which likely reflects an expected payback in multi-family building after a 25% surge in November.
Starts: GS: +5.0%; Consensus: -0.7%; Last +9.3%. MAP: 1
Permits: Consensus: -0.2%; Last +5.6%.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of January 14): Declining again? Initial jobless claims have backed up in recent weeks, rising to 399k last week from a low of 366k in mid-December. Today’s and next week’s claims reports will clarify if the job market is in fact slowing.
Consensus: 384,000; Last: 399,000.
10:00: Philadelphia Fed index (January): Unchanged. Goldman forecasts that the Philadelphia Fed’s business activity index was about unchanged at +7.0 in January. The improvement in the Empire State index for January—reported earlier this week—may suggest upside risks to this forecast.
GS: +7.0; Consensus: +10.3; Last +6.8.
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