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Today's Events: ADP, ISM And Auto Sales
Following the Chicago PMI miss, will today's important ISM, which is forecast to grow substantially, be the next disappointment as the "economy" aligns even further with the chairman's vision of more easing, which however has to be justified by the "data"? Find out at 10am. Elsewhere, the ADP will continue to be its utterly worthless indicator self.
8:15: ADP employment report (January): A cleaner number. The seasonal distortions which boosted the ADP report in December should be absent from the January report (these were related to year-end purging of electronic payroll records). Prior to December, the ADP and BLS measures were tracking each other closely on a three- or six-month average basis. Therefore, our below-consensus forecast for nonfarm payroll employment growth (+125k) likely implies a below-consensus reading on the ADP survey as well.
Consensus: +182k; Last +325k.
8:30: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on the economy. Q&A expected.
10:00: Construction outlays (December): Large increase. Goldman forecasts that construction spending increased by 1.4% (month-over-month) in December. The report could have implications for revisions to Q4 GDP growth (which was originally reported at +2.8% annualized).
GS: +1.4%; Consensus: +0.5%; Last +1.2%.
10:00: ISM manufacturing index (January): Forecast revision. Yesterday the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published revised seasonal factors for its business conditions indexes. For the manufacturing ISM, the revisions show less recent momentum in activity. Therefore GS has revised down its forecast for today’s report to 53.5 from 54.0 previously. After the revisions to seasonal factors, in the future the inclination will be to attribute any surprises to "real" news rather than seasonal distortions.
GS: 53.5; Consensus: 54.5; Last: 53.1.
Afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales (January). Flat. Manufacturer comments during the month were consistent with total vehicle sales about unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 13.5m units (saar), in our view.
Total: GS: 13.5m; Consensus: 13.5m; last: 13.5m.
Domestic: GS: 10.4m; Consensus: 10.5m; Last 10.5m.
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Oh Tyler 'dissapointment ' noooo ! no way. After Chicago PMI those data sets will be glamourous (read BS) , and everything will turn into bulls excursion .
have faith
/ sarc mode never off these days
When the Data is made up as you go then the Data no longer matters.
As a matter of fact the Data is "secret code" for the HFT machines to buy or sell for the day...get with the program!
And don't forget this breaking news headline over at Bloomberg:
Yawn, I think i wil go back to bed.
While I still have faith on what is really happening, I am somehow intrigued with this 'data'. Will it be justified by the information they have or is it just a front? Oh well, I guess it's time for me to look for discount car parts just in case.