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Today's Events: Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, PPI And Philly Fed

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2012 09:04 -0400

Busy day in the economic headlines arena, with Housing Start, Claims PPI and Philly Fed all on deck. Goldman summarizes the expectations and the upwardly biased consensus.

8:30: Housing starts (January): Rebound. Housing starts likely rebounded in January for two reasons. First, single-family building activity has been steadily improving, and that seems likely to have continued. The better-than-expected homebuilder sentiment index yesterday may suggest upside risks to our forecasts for this component. Second, multi-family housing starts declined by 20% in December, and this sharp drop should at least partially reverse.

Starts: GS: +7.0%; Consensus: +2.7%; Last -4.1%.
Permits: Consensus: +1.3%; Last -1.3%.

8:30: Jobless claims (Week of February 11): Small backup. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits have steadily improved over the last several months. The four-week moving average reached a new recovery low of 366k last week. For this week’s report, the consensus expects a small backup to 365k from 358k previously.
Consensus: 365,000; Last: 358,000.

8:30: Producer Price Index (January): Moderate growth. Goldman forecasts that the January Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% (month-over-month), with moderate gains in both the core and non-core (food and energy) components.
PPI: GS: +0.2%; Consensus: +0.4%; Last -0.1%.
Core PPI: GS: +0.1%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last +0.3%.

9:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on community banking. Q&A unlikely.

10:00: Philadelphia Fed index (February): Steady. GS forecasts that the Philadelphia Fed index was about unchanged in February, holding at a level consistent with about 2.5-3.0% GDP growth. The better-than-expected Empire State manufacturing index reported earlier in the week may point to upside risks.
GS: +7.5; Consensus: +9.0; Last +7.3.

Source: GS

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Thu, 02/16/2012 - 09:06 | 2165353 battle axe

Housing starts, what a joke, how about those Foreclosure Numbers? That shit show is now only going to get worse.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 09:26 | 2165402 economics1996

The hopium and dopium is the economic equivalent of the battle of the bulge. This is a last ditch effort by the Keynesians to convince the animals that all is well and spending should resume.

The end result will be the same; it will speed up the end of the war/economic myths.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 09:29 | 2165422 trav7777

they can't make people borrow at 0%

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 09:41 | 2165453 Badabing

Ye-ha more fake numbers!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 09:15 | 2165377 adr

Let me guess the data fudge is going to be in full effect once again. CAN'T STOP NOW!!!

I predict:

House Starts - +12.7%

Jobless Claims - 318k

PPI - -.5%

Philly Fed - +26.3

Let's see if reality comes back into play, or if the US decouple myth will continue to take center stage.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 09:35 | 2165438 Manthong

5 more opportunities for the government spin masters to fudge pack the numbers to justify their manipulation of the market.

Sun, 02/19/2012 - 21:06 | 2176344 q5251355

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