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Today's Events: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods And New Home Sales

Tyler Durden's picture




 

8:30: Durable goods orders (December): Surge in aircraft orders. Goldman forecasts that durable goods orders increased by 4.0% (month-over-month) in December on a surge in civilian aircraft orders. Boeing booked 287 new aircraft orders during the month, up from 96 in November. This will very likely support growth in the headline figure. Softer growth in the main underlying components (ex-transport and “core” orders) is expected. Core durable goods shipments and durable manufacturing inventories could have implications for Q4 GDP, to be released Friday.

Total: GS: +4.0%; Consensus: +2.0%; Last: +3.7%.
Ex-transport: Consensus: +0.9%; Last: +0.3%. MAP: 4

8:30: Jobless claims (Week of January 21): Jobless claims declined sharply last week, reversing a worrying increase in mid-December. The 4 week moving average has continued to decline gradually since late November. The consensus expects a small backup in claims this week following the large drop last week.

Consensus:  370,000; Last: 352,000. MAP: 2

10:00: New home sales (December): Small gain. With many investors focused on a possible pickup in housing activity, today’s new home sales report may see extra attention. At present, new home sales remain well-below their post-recession high of 420k. Goldman forecasts a moderate increase of 2.5% (month-over-month) for December.

GS: +2.5%; Consensus: +1.9%; Last +1.6%. MAP: 2

10:00: Index of leading indicators (December): The conference board will revise the methodology underlying its index of leading indicators in today’s report. The changes include: (1) replacing M2 with a measure of credit growth, (2) replacing the ISM supplier delivery time index with the ISM new orders index, and (3) changing the way consumer expectations are measured in the report. Partly because of these periodic revisions we put low value on this indicator.

Consensus: +0.7%; Last +0.5%.

 

Source: GS

 

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Thu, 01/26/2012 - 09:14 | 2099197 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

Just another week of huge "beats" several mean average divergences above reality, followed by huge revisions down long after the ramp-job is complete.

Again...to think I used to be a technical chartist.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 09:33 | 2099234 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Yup. SSDD!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 09:15 | 2099200 syzygy_g
syzygy_g's picture

"replacing M2 with a measure of credit growth"

Won't this make the indicators look better!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 09:33 | 2099232 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Green Shootz, Bitchz!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 10:54 | 2099402 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

"8:30: Jobless claims (Week of January 21): Jobless claims declined sharply last week, reversing a worrying increase in mid-December. The 4 week moving average has continued to decline gradually since late November. The consensus expects a small backup in claims this week following the large drop last week.

Consensus:  370,000; Last: 352,000. MAP: 2"

 

I call BS. Our last Un Enjoyment orientation class was the largest I have ever seen in 4 months. I am afraid to take a job at a lower pay rate or one that won't last over 6 month's because if you took a "seasonal job" like in the Holiday employment surge and get laid off afterwards, you forfeit all your months accrued and you have nothing to fall back on.

Your for all intent and purpose bounced out of the system and are not counted anymore as being unemployed.. You just don't exist to them anymore if your laid off under 6 months of temp employment. Real nice Huh?

The system is broken and the numbers are being fudged. Look at U6 index for a more accurate BLS stat.

And.. In other news, were are at the beginning of another Constitutional crisis in the making.

 http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/01/25/obama-ignore-order-atlanta-court/

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 11:05 | 2099517 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Huge miss on new home sales!

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