Today's Mad World Of Markets

Tyler Durden's picture

Yes, volumes are low; yes, liquidity is very thin (just look at the gaps in European Government Bond - moves); and yes, US equity market ranges remain narrow; but the somewhat paradoxical movements in the last 30 minutes are worth noting for their total schizophrenia. After being generally well-correlated (for hours/days), the relationship between EURUSD, 10Y Treasuries, US equities, and European Sovereign bond risk has broken down this morning. GDP data saw a 'risk-on' style move (EUR up, TSY yields up, Stocks up, and EGB risk lower). But from the US day-session open we now have EUR weakness with USD strength weakening the bid under US equities but at the same time Treasuries are selling off and EGBs are rallying (rather notably). It is indeed a mad world.

European Government Bond (EGB) risk (black - inverted), EURUSD (blue), 10Y TSY yield (pink), and S&P 500 futures (green)


but this looks like a QE-off trade...


Charts: Bloomberg

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mrktwtch2's picture

a ball of confusion..

Xibalba's picture

and metals are getting CB'd

Nothing To See Here's picture

I smell a cartel carnage in the PMs right before Spain explodes and implodes into the void at the same time...

Xibalba's picture

modus operandi 


Hedge with paper and buy phyzz

malikai's picture

Today's world might be mad, but I'm seeing near perfect correlations on my models. Time to update expectations, folks.

flacon's picture

What do your models say? Are we going to get QE or not? If not, then do you suppose the metals will be crushed or will rally? The central planners really did a mind-job on all of us - dithering this way and that, up and down, left and right, now you see it - now you don't. I think everyone is confused at this point - and that's their goal, a thick fog of uncertainty is their goal.

flacon's picture

Yeah, it's the interest on credit created out of nothing that is the killer. 

malikai's picture

They don't necessarily say anything, other than the expected price of their target instruments at the current moment in time. I don't bother or believe in predicting the future. I simply look for dislocations in the current time and exploit them. Today in 4X, we saw almost every dislocation from last night close. And for me, that was a cool couple grand in returns. Yesterday was even better. Metals are a different story, as gold continues to be swinging around wildly (probably like you say, because of J-hole), while silver went right back to near zero divergence, and platinum is still all over the place probably because of the supply issue and J-hole.

I think your fog notion is spot on. That fog is making people do stupid things, particularly in spot metals, but also in energy. That's why I don't trust my feelings of things and instead look for the closest thing to truth: math.

slaughterer's picture

Small, sharp movements on the ES futures like yesterday.  

battle axe's picture

Wait for Israel to make its move, then we will see some volume.

resurger's picture

Israel Central Bank will dump first, then the Wall Street lapdogs, btw can you track their equity holdings? Do they publish their stock holding, i guess so

Tradable Securities 248 (NIS Million) i dont know how much is that, i guess what would be 248bn in Foreign Currency Asset Based

I hope the Sell orders will get Filled

partimer1's picture

If we can keep the market like this till Nov., we will get Obama elected.  would that be something?

The Axe's picture

Of course....I am short PINK  and long BLUE   lol

Itch's picture

That means youre homosexual, no?

intric8's picture

Numbers are just a human construct, man! Here, smoke this bowl, man! Groovy

LawsofPhysics's picture

Looks like U.S. paper needs some more attention.  paging Mr. Bernanke... 

Lohn Jocke's picture

If you need him, they'll shine a  spotlight in the sky over the fed... it's in the shape of a giant cock.

A82EBA's picture

did he sell US and buy EGB?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The fiat junkies are getting restless.

Looks like someone just sat on Gold and Silver as well. All in prep for Ass hole hat at Jackson Hole.

ThisIsBob's picture

Of course volumes are low.  In the US any trades of consequence are taking place in pools, because the real money doesn't want to do business on the exchanges, who have chosen to sleep with the pantywaist front running HFT trechno-parasites.

In search of volume the exchanges have been hoist on their own petards.  Fuckem.

"Fairness" to the exchanges means giving everybody the same length cable, no matter where the incoming plug.  And that is all.

A82EBA's picture

What is EGB?


credittrader's picture

EGB = European Government Bond

A82EBA's picture

can FRB sell US 10 yrs and buy EGBs?

LawsofPhysics's picture

dollar swaps - bitchez.  U.S. taxpayer on the hook for the entire western world - "winning".

A82EBA's picture

maybe US is buying some of that Spain 10yr at 6.43%

slaughterer's picture

Every time BB opens his mouth lately, silver/gold gets raided.  

GetZeeGold's picture



Greetings from Jackson Hole.....nothing to see here!


dingoj's picture

Indecision => fear => panic => volatility++

magpie's picture

They have a duty to ramp into the European close

Squid Vicious's picture

perfect day for a flash crash, machines running the show while banksters are in the Hampsteins...

FRBNYrCROOKS's picture

I thought they were all conspiring at Jackson Hole?

Where is a Tourrest when you need one?

sardonical1's picture

I think Zerohedge readers tend to overanalyze the markets.  Why not just follow the trend?  The trend, at the moment, is up.  Why complicate things with a focus on fundamentals when obviously no one makes money by being a 'genius' with their complicated analysis?  

adr's picture

Because following a trend makes you a fool. You were later to get in and you will be later to get out. Wall Street parasites can only live on the back of the host fool.

Honey Apple is up another 3% today. By the end of the year our shares will be worth at least 40% more than what I paid. Let's go buy a really nice car.

Fast forward to a few months later:

Honey we have to sell the house, find all the jewelry you can. I don't know what happened, I woke up today and Apple's share price fell $250. I don't have the cash to pay our bills and our savings is gone now. Man I should have listened, I SHOULD HAVE LISTENED!!!!

sardonical1's picture

Bad analysis.  There are rules on when to sell a stock.  Read Bill O'Neil's book, "How to Make Money in Stock."  One can time the market by determining market distribution, and selling stock as distribution starts to hit the market.  Your analysis--the market *should* go down because I believe it is, and being upset when it doesn't, is like a faith-based investment (or non-investment) strategy.  I do not care which way the market moves--up or down.  I just follow the trend.  I don't care to make things more complicated than it should.  

Itch's picture

Could i have permission from the author of this comment to post it on ?

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Ok genius, make a call then.  I'm waiting.

adr's picture

Did you follow the trend and buy Netflix at $250?

sardonical1's picture

No, but some did.  I am newer to this.  I'm presently long Visa, Google, DHI, and NSM, and TQQQ.

Conman's picture

Psss.. heres  a secret. This isnt a stock advice site.

GetZeeGold's picture



I can tune into CNBC to hear that crack advise.


ParkAveFlasher's picture

"crack advise" lmao, I just choked on a peppermint.

MSM MOPE, if boiled down, is a 24-7 hi-def close up of bartilomomo's painted lips mouthing words like "profit" and "cash flow" and "high revenue" and "close in the green" in super slo-motion. 

It is an outlet for sexual repression, you insert your coin into her lips because for many many practical and ethical reasons you can not insert your pecker. 

resurger's picture


Rainman's picture

correct......simply overanalyze the time and aggravation.

Bold Eagle's picture

When I read a comment like this I regret that ZH is no longer using math captcha questions.