As Europeans sell-the-news of EuroTARP's beginnings, we cast our eye to the macro data likely to spew forth this morning in the US. While markets have typically been ignoring much of the ECO data recently in favor of rumor and rumor-of-rumor and denial, there are some prints that may trigger human activity today.
8:30: GDP (Q2-third est.): Low growth. The consensus expects a small upward revision to second quarter GDP growth. We forecast an unchanged reading, but will be looking for any changes to inventory figures, which could have a direct impact on our Q3 GDP estimate.
GDP: GS: +1.0%; Consensus: +1.2%; Last (Q2-second est.) +1.0%.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of September 24): Steady? Jobless claims have moved up a little in recent weeks—the four-week moving average stands at 421k, up from a low of 404k in mid-August. A further increase from current levels would be a worrying sign for the near-term employment growth outlook.
Consensus: 420,000; Last: 423,000. MAP: 2
8:45: Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on the economic outlook. Q&A expected.
10:00: Pending home sales (August): Upside risks. The pending home sales index – which tracks signed home sales contracts, and leads the official count of existing home sales by 1-2 months – has been choppy but little changed overall this year. The consensus expects a small setback (-2%) in this month’s report, but we see some upside risks.
Consensus: -2.0%; Last -1.3%. MAP: 2
13:00: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart gives welcome remarks at Fed “Employment and Education” conference.