From Mark Grant, author of Financial Commentary "Out of the Box"
Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow
"Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow
creeps in this petty pace from day to day
to the last syllable of recorded time.
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
the way to dusty death.
Out, out brief candle.
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
that struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
and then is heard no more.
It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
-Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 5
Today, as I look at the markets, is a day signified by foolishness. Today the Euro is up, equity futures are up and the markets believe that a sustainable debt solution for Greece has been found and will be agreed upon later today. Such silliness, such idiocy; as investors believe the mockery dribbled out of Brussels and Berlin. Yet I smile, I have waited for over two years now and tomorrow I shall certainly smile because what will be decided will not be what anyone expects and because there is no choice now except to make the decisions that must be made with the looming reality of the Greek debt pay-out on March 20. Today is marked by misguided hope but tomorrow will be marked by quite a different reality.
It is not that I can predict today’s outcome any better than anyone else. When Finance Ministers convene and when politics is brought to bear the burdens and prejudices of their home countries will be brought to the table along with their ambitions and their desires to be re-elected. Grand designs give way to grim realities and exaggerated hopes and prayers will no longer suffice; of this I am quite certain. The road has run its course and now a direction must be taken, a choice made, and the rambling at a shuffled pace going nowhere is no longer sufficient. Today, finally, choices will be made and laid on the table to be examined in the sun of a different day and what was has ended; and tomorrow will mark a new beginning that cannot be controverted by political rhetoric or washed over by grand assurances signifying nothing except to lead the sheep into the next pasture. Today will be one thing; tomorrow will be another.
“Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift, that's why we call it the present.”
-Winnie the Pooh
Once we see what Europe is really going to do, not what they have told us they might do, the real show gets underway. Everything up till now was just a preamble, a mincemeat of words flowing like a unsubstantiated river from mouths full of fluff, orated by the deceptors and laid out on a table where cheese was pointed to as Prime Rib and where radishes were sworn to be asparagus but these days end tomorrow and as sure as the sun rises in the East; tomorrow will arrive.
There is the collateral for Finland, the CDS trigger, the “Collective Action Clause, who is really represented by the IIF, the $20Bn budget shortfall, the contribution of the IMF, the methodology for handing Greece the money, possible further notions that Greece has not met its commitments, law suits on the way for the ECB’s subordination of private bond holders and for the “haircut” coercion where different classes of investors have been retroactively applied and for the retroactive implementation of some “CAC”. All of these things are forthcoming regardless of what we find in Europe’s pronouncements so that the lens laid over today’s sun will tomorrow be removed and the glare of the light will be startling in its clarity and reflection.
Tomorrow the bond investors not manipulated by the European authorities return to the playing field and the reaction begins to the ECB swapping their Greek bonds for new ones to the detriment of everyone else. It may be that with the new day that there will be a brief rally as some deal is done but it will be short-lived if it occurs I predict. I can report with certain knowledge that a good number of bond investors are angry and they have realized, like I have, that if the ECB can do this with a “Collective Action Clause” that they can do this with any other clause and if they can do this with Greece they can do it with any other country. Tomorrow marks the day when the hidden cards are turned over and the bluff is revealed. Tomorrow will be a defining moment and the definition will spark a reaction that can only be guessed at presently and my guess is retribution and vengeance and the furies unleashed. What has been promised will not be what is delivered as the unraveled flag of reality is finally shown to one and all.
Gird for Battle.
“I've developed a new philosophy... I only dread one day at a time.”