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Tomorrow's "Other" Event - A Sub-1% GDP Report

Tyler Durden's picture


In addition to tomorrow's 10am headline event, which most likely will not tell us anything we don't already know, a just as important data release will occur at 8:30 am, when the BEA releases its second Q2 GDP estimate. Wall Street, which is now proven to be beyond incompetent when predicting GDP data (just recall the first Q2 GDP number fiasco), anticipates a number of 1.1%, down from the preliminary 1.3% announced last month. What is disturbing is that the far more credible analysts at Stone McCarthy, a firm that does not sell bonds or stocks, and just so happens is far more accurate than most sellsiders, now predicts a stunning 0.7% first revision to GDP. And remember: this number comes 90 minutes before Bernanke comes off embargo. What will happen to the market if the algos suddenly realize that the economy is currently experiencing its first sub-0% growth GDP quarter (the first condition of a recession), and there is no help coming from Bernanke. Furthermore, Wall Street has already started revising down its August NFP data, due out the first week of September. So with the next FOMC meeting on September 20 (followed by the November 1-2 two day meeting, during whicha week ago the Fed formally announced QE2), how will the market react knowing there is no help in sight for at least 4 weeks? We doubt it will be favorable.

From Stone McCarthy:

We look for the 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP (Friday 8:30am) to be revised downward to only +0.7% from the Advance estimate of +1.3%.


Our forecast compares to the +1.1% median estimate from the Bloomberg survey of 80 economists. That said, we are not alone in our expectations as about 8 of the 80 economists from the survey are in the +0.7%/+0.8% range.

About 1/2 of the anticipated downward GDP revision appears to be attributable to inventories, especially at the Wholesale level.


Final Sales are projected to be revised lower to 1.0% from 1.1% per the Advance release.


Exports should be revised downward, while imports are likely to be revised upward, a combination that should render a material downward revision to Aq Net Exports.


If there is good news to be included in this revision it is that PCE is likely to be revised upward, stemming from an upward revision to the retail control grouping.


Thus, household demand should look better than earlier, while inventories will look leaner. Typically, this is a combination that would be associated with an upward nudging of the next quarters GDP forecast.

Typically yes, except in this case when the stock market crashed and burned in the middle of Q3, which will lead to what we believe is the first negative growth quarter since the last recession/depression formally ended, at least according to the NBER.


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Thu, 08/25/2011 - 19:55 | 1602131 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Correction:  tomorrow's ONLY event....bitchez.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:01 | 1602156 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Don't forget the hourly updates on Irene.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:04 | 1602167 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

As a libertarian, I'm hoping that the S&P and Nasdaq crash soon, so that my favorite presidential candidate (Ron Paul) can make a killing off his leveraged Nasdaq and S&P short bets. (RYVYX, RYURX, BEARX).  Talk about playing with paper! 

That's exactly what I want:  I want a future president to bet against the US economy and profit from its demise. Maybe that's why he's so anxious for the US to default.....?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:09 | 1602181 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

the mayham will come when the -650 NFP hits the wires, then its time to evacute the dance floor

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:48 | 1602497 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Lets not forget the Hurricane???

all those jobs created.. from the destruction..

and then!

add in New York going down for a few days.. they are Thanking God they dont have to open after Germany Tanked today! WOW!! they will be believing that God really is on thier side now!

so, markets down? algo will churn but retail (Not that day traders are a large segment any more) will be closed..

I really wonder if this Hurrincane doesnt provide some real cover for the fucking scum bag Banksters to get things worked out?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:00 | 1602547 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Bankrupt Fruit of the Loom, buy physical cotton!

Equally absurd. 


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:10 | 1602578 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, Fruit of the Loom is long physical cotton, not massively short cotton.

You might be able to bankrupt some massively short bank by cornering the market in cotton.  But unlike silver, each and every cotton contract that stands for delivery is *GASP* actually delivered to someone, rather than, you know, being paid off with cash.

But you are too stupid to understand that, I believe.  Perhaps you should go jack off to some concentration camp footage, instead?

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 01:33 | 1603053 Marlon Brando
Marlon Brando's picture

HAHA well said Mosly.


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:10 | 1602186 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

This is disgustingly dishonest and manipulative. I don't love or hate RP. But Jeezuz. If you think it is going in the toilet, you are what, NOT SUPPOSED TO PREPARE?

What do you see to be optimistic about in this economy?

What do you suggest Ron Paul, as a patriot, should be doing with his money?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:02 | 1602329 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Exactly what he has been doing all along:


Dr. Paul's portfolio


  • Agnico Eagle Mines
  • Alumina Common
  • Anglo Gold Ashanti Ltd.
  • BrigusGold Corp. Com (formerly Apollo Gold Corp)
  • Barrick Gold Corp.
  • Claude Research Inc
  • Coeur D'Alene Minds Corp.
  • Gold Corp Inc
  • El Dorado Gold Corp.
  • IAM Gold Corp.
  • Kinross
  • Lexam Explorations Inc.
  • Mag Silver Corp.
  • Metalline Mining Co.
  • Mutual Securities Inc.
  • Newmont Mining Corp.
  • Pan American Silver
  • Petrol Oil and Gas
  • Silver Wheaton Corp
  • Virginia Mines Inc.
  • Vista Gold Corp.
  • Viterra Inc
  • Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
  • Allied Nevada Gold Corp.
  • Hecla Mining Co.
Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:38 | 1602451 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Dumb shit doesn't have Great Panther.  What a moron!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:54 | 1602527 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture



It's not dishonest, at all.  If you don't believe it, look it up for yourself. 

As far as disgust goes, I think it's disgusting how libertarians take such delight in watching the world burn.  It's like you guys have some perverse political form of Munchausen by Proxy, where you embellish the problems of this country, try to make them worse, and want nothing more than for it all to implode.  And, yes, I said "make it worse" because all the "solutions" the libertarians propose would transform our society into a cruel, survival-of-the-fittest, anarchist jungle.    

Hyperinflation tomorrow!  Hindenburg Omens! Depression!  Food confiscation!  Stock market crash!  Death crosses! Death Panels! Czars!  Default! Politicians assassinated! Hang Bernanke from a light pole!  Death of fiat currencies!  Death to the EuroZone!  Hams in the backyard!

Seriously...  it's a political form of Munchausen by Proxy, a mental disorder prevalent in Tea Partiers and Libertarians - and it's fucking disgusting.  

Just because I disrupt your echo chamber doesn't mean I'm dishonest.  I'm just putting a mirror in front of you guys.  It's not my fault you don't like what you see. 



Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:14 | 1602592 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Aww, you don't have any proof, so you tell your debate opponent to do your work for you.

Proves you don't have shit.  Get the fuck out, you lazy, lying sack of shit.

Also funny that you blame the results of the parties in power, whom you implicitly support, on the policies that have been out of favor for more than a hundred years, the same policies which converted scum soaked fiefdoms into modern economies in perhaps a couple hundred years.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:29 | 1602632 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

No.  I'm just tired of doing your homework for you.

It's at Open Secrets, too.  I'm surprised how fanatical you are about RP and the COMEX, yet how little you really know about both.  Not a day goes by where I'm not teaching you something about RP or the silver market, or whatever.  

It's growing tiresome. 




Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:15 | 1602596 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Few quick thoughts after reading your posts: 

If the current vocabulary term is, "Munchausen by Proxy", perhaps next week's should be, "Normalcy Bias".

Why is it that you equate a desire for smaller government with anarchy and chaos?

Do you think we are actually on a sustainable path? 

What exactly, are you so afraid of? 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:17 | 1602599 Ironmaan
Ironmaan's picture

We're the ones holding the mirror, dumb ass.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:56 | 1602533 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

MsCreant, I hope all is getting better for you and you house.

I gave you No. 8 and Libtertard above No. -36.  Ron Paul is an honorable man and can do what he wants with his money.  Troll above doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.

Nice to be back from vacation.  We went to Alaska, I hope you did not have your house there...  Brr...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:32 | 1602253 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Your schtick is getting really old, sir. Don't you have something better to do than troll?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:45 | 1602286 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Being short is a bet against fools like Bernanke. The thing you need to understand is that someone who is short is not creating the outcome but rather predicting the potential outcome. There is always the chance the short loses his money because he is proven wrong by the market. As long as we still have free markets the outcome is not known.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:59 | 1602319 the PTB
the PTB's picture

Um, we do not have free markets when the price, character, velocity etc of money is determined by the few for the many.  But I do get your point.  I think.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:15 | 1602364 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Show me where Ron Paul has such positions.

Then show me you blowing it out of your fannie, you butthurt little bitch.

Edit: also funny that your dumb ass still thinks the stock market IS the economy.  You've been posting here under different names for more than a year, and you still don't understand the difference between stock prices and economic conditions.  Talk about a troglodyte. 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:57 | 1602536 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ahh, one of the great pleasures of coming back from vacation is reading Mr. Mosley picking apart ugly trolls.

A green for you!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:13 | 1602587 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Excellent observations TMosley...

"You've been posting here under different names for more than a year, and you still don't understand the difference between stock prices and economic conditions."

The azz hat is afflicted with the same illness that effects all bankers and most pols...

But are they in for a shock when the bond mkt rears up and strikes them like a lightning bolt someday soon...

Ben and his experimental economy are about at the end of their road...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:15 | 1602579 fuu
fuu's picture

I was expecting you to blame tmosley for the sub 1% GDP print but I was pleasantly surprised that you didn't.


Speaking of freedom I was hoping you would be able to expand on something you said earlier this year. You stated that "Our quest for freedom from oppression is more important than any tragedy that might arise from it." Do you still agree that any of Ron Paul's actions that people may find calamitous, grievous, or dreadful are immaterial when contrasted to his tireless quest for freedom.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 04:22 | 1602995 oldman
oldman's picture


Fri, 08/26/2011 - 00:57 | 1602997 oldman
oldman's picture

Go away, please    politic somewhere else         thanks,    om

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:54 | 1602525 kito
kito's picture

just started receiving zh tweets on my cell. lots of updates on irene. good stuff. thank you tyler.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:08 | 1602175 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Unwinding of unmet expectations is an event.

How effective will those Au margin hikes be in funneling fiat away from metals and offsetting the Bernank curling up in the fetal position tomorrow?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:15 | 1602193 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I can tell you from personal experience...that in the short run, those margin hikes will be PLENTY effective.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:00 | 1602548 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

In the short run yes.  It does make it seem that we have bought our metals high, no?  Patience here, and we will win.

Those who have the most ounces will win.  Just keep buying and buying when you have some extyra fiats, like I have for decades...

Who says there is no such thing as a happy rolling bearing?  Even one getting older...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:27 | 1602629 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Maybe Ben is going to announce this tid bit... and spin it as a boost to US Economy...

" Astronomers have spotted an exotic planet that seems to be made of diamond racing around a tiny star in our galactic backyard.

The new planet is far denser than any other known so far and consists largely of carbon. Because it is so dense, scientists calculate the carbon must be crystalline, so a large part of this strange world will effectively be diamond."

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 19:58 | 1602139 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Alas Poor Bernanke... For I knew him well! 

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:01 | 1602150 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Come on Bernanke, give us 2.5 trillion in QE.


Bring on the Hyperinflation Train!!!!!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:36 | 1602264 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Can you please spare us from your endless promotion of your shit blog?  It is quite obvious you attempt to post "red meat" for whatever is overheard amongst the noise of the commenters and frankly those who get it can see through your masquerade.  Buy some click through advertising if you just cannot get over your hard on for the tin foilers.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 19:58 | 1602140 William Murderface
William Murderface's picture

Did somebody say market rally!?!?!   Woohoo!

No such thing as bad news.  The 'new new fundamentals' and all.  


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 19:59 | 1602145 Belrev
Belrev's picture

The founding fathers are turning in their graves. Oh wait, they already did and caused the "earthquake" in Virgina.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 19:59 | 1602147 freethinker4now
freethinker4now's picture

Oh mama mia Beno Beno mucho cashio monopolio

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:00 | 1602148 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Everything has been worse than Q1, how did they come up with the 1.3% in the first place?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:01 | 1602151 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

GDP should be positive (above 1%) and previous number will be

revise upwards.

How about that? Watch and see.

"now predicts a stunning 0.7% first revision to GDP."

Nothing is staining, To justify BS recession talk scenario we should

see 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP numbers. Got It???

Ain't happening,

Doomster boys... Keep quite..

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:24 | 1602230 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Extra dumb tw@t!  Fuck off, asshole!  Go blow a banker or something.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:46 | 1602287 tbone654
tbone654's picture

fools are kind of blind...  Train is coming...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:02 | 1602554 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hey, did we finally pick up another troll while I was I gone?  Just like the old days!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:34 | 1602258 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Your handle belies your true nature: foolish.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:41 | 1602668 takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

He just forgot to add the "sarc" tag to his username...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:41 | 1602273 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I give your analysis a greater than 50% chance of ringing true.  What better way than to provide positive data to wean the momos off of the QE teat.  I applaud your contrarian take.  Try the spellcheck too.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:18 | 1602602 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

I'm going with English as a fifth language.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:01 | 1602155 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Please, tomorrow I want to see a -900 points in the DOW... and +5% in silver. Thanks much.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:19 | 1602206 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I want Gold scream higher despite the margin manipulations.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:34 | 1602256 Cdad
Cdad's picture

My guess is that 99% of the board wants that, too.  However, what's underneath is the truth about the paper gold guys, the leverage bid they put into the market, which you saw in spades over the last couple weeks.  Those are the weak longs...and they get washed out by the liquidators...the sellers of paper gold who must reduce leverage and take profits as their costs rise.

If you have gold in your lock box, you get my hat tip.  However, if you are a GLD guy who bought at the close, well...............shit in one hand and wish in the other.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:44 | 1602285 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I don't play with paper. I only do physical metals. I just want the same thing to happen to Gold that happened to Silver. All they did was put a strong $40 floor under Silver about 25% higher than the upper limit they wanted. Silver continues to build for another rise. Mostly I just want this margin game to fail and blow up in their faces.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:20 | 1602397 tmosley
tmosley's picture

As a buyer of silver, I will take the opposite, thank you very much.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:05 | 1602562 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I'll take both!  Throw in some platinum, and yep, I am well diversified.

Disclosure, as my ally Mr. Mosley knows, I am more of a gold fan.  Don't like that sir?  Then please write an article for my blog, now that I am back from vacation!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:02 | 1602158 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Going to sleep now, although any tearful news out of Europe is suspended until next week after your regularly scheduled stream of appearances right here in the US of A. ECB and IMF will have their "carefully" planned words of choice over the weekend.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:03 | 1602161 --Freedom--
--Freedom--'s picture

Which will have a bigger effect on he market, a low GDP number or no qe? If we get both, couldn't we see a major decline across the board tomorrow?
Although it seems like both of these could lead to a big rally the way the "market" behaves these days.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:04 | 1602163 Trump2012
Trump2012's picture

After GDP numbers come out, market rallies 350 points on QE anticipation, then after JHole speech market drops 600+ points on no QE reality! Lots of $ to be made on the the rollercoaster tomarrow!


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:07 | 1602174 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Dude, drop that BS, nobody expecting QE3, It's just a typical

Friday.. Sill not sure why you maniacs so happy that your papa and mama

losing their 401k.. Guess what, karma always going to hit you back,

keep cheering about East Coast wipe out.. F*ckers..

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:16 | 1602198 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

papa and mama 401k is already gone they just don't know it yet. the sooner the crash the less money they keep giving to wall street maggots.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:43 | 1602278 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

You're being sarcastic right?

A wipe-out of New York and DC would be a miracle from God.  The oppression of the bankers and politicians would be gone.  It would be a real economic stimulus for middle America.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:09 | 1602363 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Idiots come out at night.......

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:41 | 1602466 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I know.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:08 | 1602574 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, maybe I don't like MoneyWise, but:

DOES have the S&P up 5.75 at 10:08 ET.

I still will take my gold though.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:05 | 1602169 ComeAndTakeIt
ComeAndTakeIt's picture

I'd love to see the Bernank just lose his shit on camera tomorrow...Just have him come clean in a nervous breakdown and start crying until the network has to cut the feed.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:07 | 1602171 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

If anyone wondered what it would be like to see an insane asylum operate in real time.

You got it.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:07 | 1602173 mynhair
mynhair's picture

No worries.  Trading will be suspended because of Irene.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:11 | 1602183 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Idiot, it's coming Sunday while market is closed..

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:15 | 1602194 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Oh contrare, it's the expected hit on the Outer Banks that counts.  Insurance cos, and all that.

Who gives a fuk about reality?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:33 | 1602254 Mongrel
Mongrel's picture

Learn French or don't try and use it.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:51 | 1602301 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Here's one, how about douche.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:00 | 1602321 knukles
knukles's picture


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:10 | 1602576 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ another one.

Would that be "fuque'?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:13 | 1602372 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Try the frog legs in the lounge.

Then go stuff your head in the bidet.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:43 | 1602475 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I tried to learn French, but the tutor threw down the book, and ran away.

I was highly disappointed.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:45 | 1602487's picture

Learn French or don't try and use it.


Learn French or don't try to use it.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 01:46 | 1603073 knukles
knukles's picture

I once took France then lost it.
             -Kaiser Wilhelm II

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 01:51 | 1603080 knukles
knukles's picture

Or try to learn English before using French.

Who the fuk wants to learn or use French, anyway?
Kinda like taking Paul Krugman serious.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:10 | 1602177 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I'm not convinced the market will tank on a lower GDP figure. When the market is looking for QE, and it certainly is at this juncture,

good news becomes bad news and bad news becomes good news. So if investors feel a bad  GPD # enhances our odds of QE, then the

reaction could be positive. What a screwed up environment we are in.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:22 | 1602219 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nice status quo.  Do me a favor...should the market open up, load up on Netflix and Apple.  Okay?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:37 | 1602265 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

did a bug crawl up your butt and die?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:08 | 1602178 pleseus
pleseus's picture

QE3 ain't coming tomorrow.  End of 2011 maybe.  2012 you bet.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:03 | 1602555 agNau
agNau's picture

Irene will 'become' quite the diversion.
QE will take a radical new form. It will not happen tomorrow.
The bullets are not gone. It will just take many more.
The problems rise exponentially, they require exponential doses of medicine. Continue to convert to real money. Accept the gift of time.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:09 | 1602180 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

don't worry, we will blame Irene.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:21 | 1602612 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Don't forget the East Coast Quake.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:13 | 1602189 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

If Wall Street expects 1.1% then the GDP report will yield a 1.2% GDP growth so that all the MSM will blare with ecstacy that the GDP has exceeded street numbers. Bank on it.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:15 | 1602192 ben_bernanke
ben_bernanke's picture

Since when is 0.7% a negative number? Oh right, in the land where there is no math or logic. Zero Hedge.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:20 | 1602208 --Freedom--
--Freedom--'s picture

Are you referring to the "sub 0%" growth reference in the article above? I was wondering about that, too. Why is .7% percent referred to as "sub 0%"?
typo, or is this some economic thing I don't know about?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:23 | 1602224 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

It's a typo, as the title of this thread clearly states "Tomorrow's "Other" Event - A Sub-1% GDP Report"

Ben never was a good reader, even when he quivers.


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:05 | 1602343 knukles
knukles's picture

Parkinsons, ADHD and dyslexia is an honorable combination in our diverse society.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:21 | 1602211 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Listen dipshit...if you wait for the absolute negative GDP to position yourself, you are the sheep baaaaaaing in the barn.  Your problem, primarily, is that you have no imagination...or ability to think two steps in front of you.

Might I suggest that you simply zip it until you at least SOME LEVEL of independent thinking ability?


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:19 | 1602395 JohnG
JohnG's picture

May I get you a Martini Sir?

Bombay Sapphire, very dry, shaken not stirred, wth a twist.

Here, try the quadruple, drink it, fast, you'll feel better.


It's what I'm drinkin'  !!!!!


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:13 | 1602588 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You just put me in the mood for my "Death After Midnight:"

4 parts berry flavored vodka

1 part absinthe

all straight out of the freezer!

The best glide path to a smooth bedtime landing...

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:25 | 1602620 Cdad
Cdad's picture

If gin, then I prefer Tanqueray. However, I am a vodka martini guy.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:31 | 1602252 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Hello Ben. As always, you don't understand.

0.7% GDP growth.

0.7%+ inflation = Negative GDP growth in real terms.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:42 | 1602276 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Um, the massaged "inflation" number is subtracted before you get to GDP. Besides, it's the Gross Private Product (GPP) that really counts.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:43 | 1602280 tomreagan
tomreagan's picture

"What will happen to the market if the algos suddenly realize that the economy is currently experiencing its first sub-0% growth GDP quarter (the first condition of a recession), and there is no help coming from Bernanke".

This is because the release tomorrow is for 2Q (sub 1%). We are CURRENTLY in 3Q (which will be trending sub 0%).

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:58 | 1602312 Kayman
Kayman's picture


Let's see, nominal GDP is x, real inflation is y and y is greater than x.  You do the math.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:36 | 1602655 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

He can't.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:18 | 1602201 Cdad
Cdad's picture

For God's sake, Tyler...can you please put Sacrilege to work on the Chinese Moron Filter [CMF]?  It is getting harder by the day, and exponentially so, to tolerate these morons in the comment block.


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:46 | 1602288 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I know you better Cdad, cmon there are plenty better places to find an echo chamber.  Just sayin, u have my respect from your posts.  All gold silver rah rah gets old IMO.  I appreciate critical thought and contrarian views.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:01 | 1602328 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Echo chamber?  What are you talking about.  My comment was pretty simple...straightforward, and unequivocal.  

I have no problem with contrarian views, either.

What the fuck are you talking about?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:15 | 1602378 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Re-read your posts on the thread and tell me you still don't see where I am coming from.  You are like a f'n attack dog tonight mang


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:38 | 1602454 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Correct...attacking stupidity tonight.  Sorry if it offends you.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 07:50 | 1603328 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I agree there is a large contingent of intelligence challenged, groupthink cheerleading individuals here, and I too am sometimes tempted to inform them of their ignorance. Your current attacks and definition of 'stupid' is apparantley anyone with an opinion differing from your own though.  

Its seems like maybe you lost some coin today or the wife won't put out. But I digress.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:18 | 1602202 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:59 | 1602317 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Is that all you got?

Ya gots ta makes them gets down on their knees and begs, "Please, Master Blaster, oh please with the quantitative ease!"

Drop that bitch -1000, ya gots ta dress to impress, set some records, boyz. Fly that freak flag. Gold +1900 (fuck, $2000), silver +50. Burn motherfucker, burn.

Then Ben steps out and sez, "Who run Barter town?"

ZH crew says, "Fuck you Ben."

Ben sez, "Who run Barter Town, Bitchez?"

ZH crew says, "Fuck you Ben."

Ben sez, "Printing embargo, Bitchez!"

ZH crew says, "Bring the pain you worthless ---t!"

And he does. And the purifying truth of the free market, for a split second, gives us hope and courage and unites us in the task that comes next-- setting things right. The joy is supreme, a suspended animation of the "one perfect moment." Peak truth, peak love.

And when it hurts too scary, too bad, the rest of the world will beg for it (Please with the quantitative ease), even as we sing the praises of the purifying fire. And he will "concede" and print and kick the can down the road for that little while longer, breathlessly waiting for the next strategy, high on the adrenaline rush he gets from escaping collapse, for one more hour, day, week, month, whatever can be managed for now.

And we will wail in despair, gnash our teeth, and remember what was lost.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:23 | 1602404 JohnG
JohnG's picture

...tears in eyes.... 

That was beautiful.



Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:18 | 1602600 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture


Mon, 04/16/2012 - 10:40 | 2348464 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture



Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:20 | 1602610 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Although finviz has S&P futures up 6 and our Au only up a buck, I do not see that kind of Black Friday yet...

Remind me to eat Humble Crow Pie this weekend though, Seasmoke, if I am wrong!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:21 | 1602210 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

It's getting to the point where I trust U.S. official numbers as much as I trust Chinese official numbers. " 0 "

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:33 | 1602255 SilverDosed
SilverDosed's picture

Took you this long?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:21 | 1602213 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Third event.....who is going to want to be long going into the weekend with Irene on the way over the weekend? Three strikes and you are OUT!!!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:21 | 1602216 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

I am golfing and vacationing and cannot be bothered. I am ready for another vacation.

Obama- Raping Tax Payers one at a time


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:28 | 1602243 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Please! He's raping millions of tax payers, all at the same time.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:40 | 1602271 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I  am Jobe, @20:21,


Why not?, Michelles already spent 10 mil of the taxpayers fiat  on Vay Kays,and its not even go Gurlllll!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:25 | 1602408 JohnG
JohnG's picture

And that's just for the grub!

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:22 | 1602220 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Here is Irene now at the full power, ain't that bad considering

that Dude is in the middle of the "EYE"

When (IF) it gets to NY area, it will be just ordinary Tropical


Ones Hurricane hits the ground (NC) it will lose strenght very fast

and how many miles from Bahamas to NY? You count..

My bet, Irene will not even reach NY but will be lost somewhere in

the Atlantic 100 miles of the coast.. It's like hitting Tennis ball

against the board.. Ones it hits the Ground, it should turn into the

sea, fallowing less resistance... Watch it..

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:08 | 1602359 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Is that the same "fallowing" that Obama has going for him?  No wonder we are going down the shitter.....

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:23 | 1602221 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Recessions will only be acknowledged when we are OUT of them. I expect nothing less than more hopium, to be revised down later. Much, much later.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:25 | 1602236 Cdad
Cdad's picture


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:23 | 1602228 Dan Watie
Dan Watie's picture

<-- Krusty the Klown

<--Rick Perry

who would be a better POTUS?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:26 | 1602238 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Answer:  not you, dumbass.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:36 | 1602262 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

harsh -1

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:39 | 1602267 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Really?  You think the question is probing?  I don't like Perry, but I am grown enough to separate te his candidacy from that of a fictional cartoon character.

Or maybe we should launch a write in movement for Krusty?

Good grief.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:43 | 1602282 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Ron Paul.

Or someone else / even Krusty.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:49 | 1602294 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

but I am grown enough to separate te his candidacy from that of a fictional cartoon character






1. How old are you?

2. What's the difference between Krusty the Clown and Rick Perry?

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:56 | 1602309 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Obviously, I am older than you.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:58 | 1602314 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"but I am grown enough to separate his candidacy from that of a fictional cartoon character"

Krusty wants to force everyone to eat peas. Not just any ole peas, but his peas.

Ohhh, I thought you meant the current fictional cartoon clown...well, never mind ;-)

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:59 | 1602318 Cdad
Cdad's picture

For clarification...nope...I was referring to ACTUAL cartoon characters.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:08 | 1602361 nmewn
nmewn's picture


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:18 | 1602389 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It's not my fault, I voted for Kodos.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:53 | 1602306 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

take a valium and try to loosen up.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:58 | 1602315 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Martinis...two taken.  But what happens when I loosen up is that I no longer have patience for morons.  And these boards are absolutely polluted with morons these days.  It is getting harder and harder to give a rats ass about the comments block.

And I suspect you know that to be true, buzz.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:30 | 1602418 JohnG
JohnG's picture

I see.  May I offer you one of my special "Xanax Martini's."  Trust me, I'm a doctor (of Computer Science...)

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:45 | 1602461 JohnG
JohnG's picture

OK, my Rx for you (professional opinion):

50mg oxazepam chased with a Xanax Martini, folllowed by

10mg clonazepam chased with an entire liter of water.

Go to bed.  You'll wake up sometime Saturday nice and refreshed, and can skip all these morons that lurk in the night.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:26 | 1602627 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I hate both doctors and their pills.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:59 | 1602540 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

...I suspect you know that to be true, buzz.


:sigh: I try not to think about it. It isn't just the newbs who don't know shit from shinola. it isn't just the fascist on the dole disinfo trolls. it isn't just the lowering of the IQ or the yahooification. it's everything. I try to wade through it and let my little light shine but it ain't easy these days.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:17 | 1602387 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

no problem with the "who is that guy" thing:

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:43 | 1602279 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Dan @ 20:23,


who would be a better POTUS?


ANYONE except what we have.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:50 | 1602298 ComeAndTakeIt
ComeAndTakeIt's picture

I don't know...I didn't really like Krusty the Klown when she was the last democratic speaker of the house.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:40 | 1602272 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Yeah, Jackson A-Hole

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:44 | 1602283 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

By the way. They didn't catch Daffy.


He promised vengeance on Europe.


What if he already had sleepers in place?


France and England would look like targets.


Germany and Italy stood back.


And Daffy is not Saddam.


Daffy already has form in Europe.




IRA arms shipments?


What else?


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:50 | 1602300 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The Rebels have a $1.2 million Dead or Alive bounty on his head. Someone close to him is seriously thinking about that right now.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 22:36 | 1602649 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Let's see, 1.2 million fiat toilet papers to turn in a guy who can give you solid gold bricks?


Fri, 08/26/2011 - 04:31 | 1603176 magpie
magpie's picture

i think the bounty is even 1 Million Pounds

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 23:28 | 1602823 Manthong
Manthong's picture

And we/NATO are getting ready to "free up" over $1 billion to the rebels so that they can do God's.. er, Allah's work.

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:44 | 1602284 Koffieshop
Koffieshop's picture

Maybe a dumb question, but is the 0.7% number inflation and population growth adjusted?

If not then the real economic growth number should be well in the negative.....

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:57 | 1602311 David99
David99's picture
I have been trading in various world markets for +41 years, and have found ZH brings in true picture but Tyler is wrong in predicting FED AND IF TYLER NEEDS MY SERVICES, HE CAN EMAIL ME.   It is a very well known fact that FED does more than 50% of its dealings with its 20 PD's under the table / behind the scenes and no one knows how they manipulate everything since 1913. Everything is hidden and public will never know the actual facts / figures as they destroy it so that even staff of FED have no access. Whether Ben officially gives QE3 or not, he knows how to keep pumping the markets through its 20 PD's Moreover, FED is the biggest criminal organization on earth.
Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:01 | 1602324 rubyruffruff
rubyruffruff's picture

dam.....98 years of dealing from the bottom of the deck.......remind me not 2 play cards with any fed governor.......xoxoxoxo

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 20:58 | 1602313 Zer0henge
Zer0henge's picture


Thu, 08/25/2011 - 21:01 | 1602327 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

<--- Quadaffy for POTUS

<--- Obamma for POTUS


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