Tomorrow's "Other" Event - A Sub-1% GDP Report

Tyler Durden's picture

In addition to tomorrow's 10am headline event, which most likely will not tell us anything we don't already know, a just as important data release will occur at 8:30 am, when the BEA releases its second Q2 GDP estimate. Wall Street, which is now proven to be beyond incompetent when predicting GDP data (just recall the first Q2 GDP number fiasco), anticipates a number of 1.1%, down from the preliminary 1.3% announced last month. What is disturbing is that the far more credible analysts at Stone McCarthy, a firm that does not sell bonds or stocks, and just so happens is far more accurate than most sellsiders, now predicts a stunning 0.7% first revision to GDP. And remember: this number comes 90 minutes before Bernanke comes off embargo. What will happen to the market if the algos suddenly realize that the economy is currently experiencing its first sub-0% growth GDP quarter (the first condition of a recession), and there is no help coming from Bernanke. Furthermore, Wall Street has already started revising down its August NFP data, due out the first week of September. So with the next FOMC meeting on September 20 (followed by the November 1-2 two day meeting, during whicha week ago the Fed formally announced QE2), how will the market react knowing there is no help in sight for at least 4 weeks? We doubt it will be favorable.

From Stone McCarthy:

We look for the 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP (Friday 8:30am) to be revised downward to only +0.7% from the Advance estimate of +1.3%.


Our forecast compares to the +1.1% median estimate from the Bloomberg survey of 80 economists. That said, we are not alone in our expectations as about 8 of the 80 economists from the survey are in the +0.7%/+0.8% range.

About 1/2 of the anticipated downward GDP revision appears to be attributable to inventories, especially at the Wholesale level.


Final Sales are projected to be revised lower to 1.0% from 1.1% per the Advance release.


Exports should be revised downward, while imports are likely to be revised upward, a combination that should render a material downward revision to Aq Net Exports.


If there is good news to be included in this revision it is that PCE is likely to be revised upward, stemming from an upward revision to the retail control grouping.


Thus, household demand should look better than earlier, while inventories will look leaner. Typically, this is a combination that would be associated with an upward nudging of the next quarters GDP forecast.

Typically yes, except in this case when the stock market crashed and burned in the middle of Q3, which will lead to what we believe is the first negative growth quarter since the last recession/depression formally ended, at least according to the NBER.

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Cdad's picture

Correction:  tomorrow's ONLY event....bitchez.

DeadFred's picture

Don't forget the hourly updates on Irene.

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

As a libertarian, I'm hoping that the S&P and Nasdaq crash soon, so that my favorite presidential candidate (Ron Paul) can make a killing off his leveraged Nasdaq and S&P short bets. (RYVYX, RYURX, BEARX).  Talk about playing with paper! 

That's exactly what I want:  I want a future president to bet against the US economy and profit from its demise. Maybe that's why he's so anxious for the US to default.....?

bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

the mayham will come when the -650 NFP hits the wires, then its time to evacute the dance floor

JW n FL's picture

Lets not forget the Hurricane???

all those jobs created.. from the destruction..

and then!

add in New York going down for a few days.. they are Thanking God they dont have to open after Germany Tanked today! WOW!! they will be believing that God really is on thier side now!

so, markets down? algo will churn but retail (Not that day traders are a large segment any more) will be closed..

I really wonder if this Hurrincane doesnt provide some real cover for the fucking scum bag Banksters to get things worked out?

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Bankrupt Fruit of the Loom, buy physical cotton!

Equally absurd. 


tmosley's picture

No, Fruit of the Loom is long physical cotton, not massively short cotton.

You might be able to bankrupt some massively short bank by cornering the market in cotton.  But unlike silver, each and every cotton contract that stands for delivery is *GASP* actually delivered to someone, rather than, you know, being paid off with cash.

But you are too stupid to understand that, I believe.  Perhaps you should go jack off to some concentration camp footage, instead?

MsCreant's picture

This is disgustingly dishonest and manipulative. I don't love or hate RP. But Jeezuz. If you think it is going in the toilet, you are what, NOT SUPPOSED TO PREPARE?

What do you see to be optimistic about in this economy?

What do you suggest Ron Paul, as a patriot, should be doing with his money?

JohnG's picture

Exactly what he has been doing all along:


Dr. Paul's portfolio


  • Agnico Eagle Mines
  • Alumina Common
  • Anglo Gold Ashanti Ltd.
  • BrigusGold Corp. Com (formerly Apollo Gold Corp)
  • Barrick Gold Corp.
  • Claude Research Inc
  • Coeur D'Alene Minds Corp.
  • Gold Corp Inc
  • El Dorado Gold Corp.
  • IAM Gold Corp.
  • Kinross
  • Lexam Explorations Inc.
  • Mag Silver Corp.
  • Metalline Mining Co.
  • Mutual Securities Inc.
  • Newmont Mining Corp.
  • Pan American Silver
  • Petrol Oil and Gas
  • Silver Wheaton Corp
  • Virginia Mines Inc.
  • Vista Gold Corp.
  • Viterra Inc
  • Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
  • Allied Nevada Gold Corp.
  • Hecla Mining Co.
mynhair's picture

Dumb shit doesn't have Great Panther.  What a moron!

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture



It's not dishonest, at all.  If you don't believe it, look it up for yourself. 

As far as disgust goes, I think it's disgusting how libertarians take such delight in watching the world burn.  It's like you guys have some perverse political form of Munchausen by Proxy, where you embellish the problems of this country, try to make them worse, and want nothing more than for it all to implode.  And, yes, I said "make it worse" because all the "solutions" the libertarians propose would transform our society into a cruel, survival-of-the-fittest, anarchist jungle.    

Hyperinflation tomorrow!  Hindenburg Omens! Depression!  Food confiscation!  Stock market crash!  Death crosses! Death Panels! Czars!  Default! Politicians assassinated! Hang Bernanke from a light pole!  Death of fiat currencies!  Death to the EuroZone!  Hams in the backyard!

Seriously...  it's a political form of Munchausen by Proxy, a mental disorder prevalent in Tea Partiers and Libertarians - and it's fucking disgusting.  

Just because I disrupt your echo chamber doesn't mean I'm dishonest.  I'm just putting a mirror in front of you guys.  It's not my fault you don't like what you see. 



tmosley's picture

Aww, you don't have any proof, so you tell your debate opponent to do your work for you.

Proves you don't have shit.  Get the fuck out, you lazy, lying sack of shit.

Also funny that you blame the results of the parties in power, whom you implicitly support, on the policies that have been out of favor for more than a hundred years, the same policies which converted scum soaked fiefdoms into modern economies in perhaps a couple hundred years.

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

No.  I'm just tired of doing your homework for you.

It's at Open Secrets, too.  I'm surprised how fanatical you are about RP and the COMEX, yet how little you really know about both.  Not a day goes by where I'm not teaching you something about RP or the silver market, or whatever.  

It's growing tiresome. 




ColonelCooper's picture

Few quick thoughts after reading your posts: 

If the current vocabulary term is, "Munchausen by Proxy", perhaps next week's should be, "Normalcy Bias".

Why is it that you equate a desire for smaller government with anarchy and chaos?

Do you think we are actually on a sustainable path? 

What exactly, are you so afraid of? 

Ironmaan's picture

We're the ones holding the mirror, dumb ass.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

MsCreant, I hope all is getting better for you and you house.

I gave you No. 8 and Libtertard above No. -36.  Ron Paul is an honorable man and can do what he wants with his money.  Troll above doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.

Nice to be back from vacation.  We went to Alaska, I hope you did not have your house there...  Brr...

VisualCSharp's picture

Your schtick is getting really old, sir. Don't you have something better to do than troll?

Everybodys All American's picture

Being short is a bet against fools like Bernanke. The thing you need to understand is that someone who is short is not creating the outcome but rather predicting the potential outcome. There is always the chance the short loses his money because he is proven wrong by the market. As long as we still have free markets the outcome is not known.

the PTB's picture

Um, we do not have free markets when the price, character, velocity etc of money is determined by the few for the many.  But I do get your point.  I think.

tmosley's picture

Show me where Ron Paul has such positions.

Then show me you blowing it out of your fannie, you butthurt little bitch.

Edit: also funny that your dumb ass still thinks the stock market IS the economy.  You've been posting here under different names for more than a year, and you still don't understand the difference between stock prices and economic conditions.  Talk about a troglodyte. 

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ahh, one of the great pleasures of coming back from vacation is reading Mr. Mosley picking apart ugly trolls.

A green for you!

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Excellent observations TMosley...

"You've been posting here under different names for more than a year, and you still don't understand the difference between stock prices and economic conditions."

The azz hat is afflicted with the same illness that effects all bankers and most pols...

But are they in for a shock when the bond mkt rears up and strikes them like a lightning bolt someday soon...

Ben and his experimental economy are about at the end of their road...

fuu's picture

I was expecting you to blame tmosley for the sub 1% GDP print but I was pleasantly surprised that you didn't.


Speaking of freedom I was hoping you would be able to expand on something you said earlier this year. You stated that "Our quest for freedom from oppression is more important than any tragedy that might arise from it." Do you still agree that any of Ron Paul's actions that people may find calamitous, grievous, or dreadful are immaterial when contrasted to his tireless quest for freedom.

oldman's picture

Go away, please    politic somewhere else         thanks,    om

kito's picture

just started receiving zh tweets on my cell. lots of updates on irene. good stuff. thank you tyler.

mayhem_korner's picture

Unwinding of unmet expectations is an event.

How effective will those Au margin hikes be in funneling fiat away from metals and offsetting the Bernank curling up in the fetal position tomorrow?

Cdad's picture

I can tell you from personal experience...that in the short run, those margin hikes will be PLENTY effective.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

In the short run yes.  It does make it seem that we have bought our metals high, no?  Patience here, and we will win.

Those who have the most ounces will win.  Just keep buying and buying when you have some extyra fiats, like I have for decades...

Who says there is no such thing as a happy rolling bearing?  Even one getting older...

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Maybe Ben is going to announce this tid bit... and spin it as a boost to US Economy...

" Astronomers have spotted an exotic planet that seems to be made of diamond racing around a tiny star in our galactic backyard.

The new planet is far denser than any other known so far and consists largely of carbon. Because it is so dense, scientists calculate the carbon must be crystalline, so a large part of this strange world will effectively be diamond."

Waffen's picture

Come on Bernanke, give us 2.5 trillion in QE.


Bring on the Hyperinflation Train!!!!!

Stax Edwards's picture

Can you please spare us from your endless promotion of your shit blog?  It is quite obvious you attempt to post "red meat" for whatever is overheard amongst the noise of the commenters and frankly those who get it can see through your masquerade.  Buy some click through advertising if you just cannot get over your hard on for the tin foilers.

William Murderface's picture

Did somebody say market rally!?!?!   Woohoo!

No such thing as bad news.  The 'new new fundamentals' and all.  


Belrev's picture

The founding fathers are turning in their graves. Oh wait, they already did and caused the "earthquake" in Virgina.

freethinker4now's picture

Oh mama mia Beno Beno mucho cashio monopolio

DeadFred's picture

Everything has been worse than Q1, how did they come up with the 1.3% in the first place?

MoneyWise's picture

GDP should be positive (above 1%) and previous number will be

revise upwards.

How about that? Watch and see.

"now predicts a stunning 0.7% first revision to GDP."

Nothing is staining, To justify BS recession talk scenario we should

see 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP numbers. Got It???

Ain't happening,

Doomster boys... Keep quite..

Cdad's picture

Extra dumb tw@t!  Fuck off, asshole!  Go blow a banker or something.

tbone654's picture

fools are kind of blind...  Train is coming...

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hey, did we finally pick up another troll while I was I gone?  Just like the old days!

VisualCSharp's picture

Your handle belies your true nature: foolish.

takinthehighway's picture

He just forgot to add the "sarc" tag to his username...

Stax Edwards's picture

I give your analysis a greater than 50% chance of ringing true.  What better way than to provide positive data to wean the momos off of the QE teat.  I applaud your contrarian take.  Try the spellcheck too.

ColonelCooper's picture

I'm going with English as a fifth language.

lolmao500's picture

Please, tomorrow I want to see a -900 points in the DOW... and +5% in silver. Thanks much.

Long-John-Silver's picture

I want Gold scream higher despite the margin manipulations.

Cdad's picture

My guess is that 99% of the board wants that, too.  However, what's underneath is the truth about the paper gold guys, the leverage bid they put into the market, which you saw in spades over the last couple weeks.  Those are the weak longs...and they get washed out by the liquidators...the sellers of paper gold who must reduce leverage and take profits as their costs rise.

If you have gold in your lock box, you get my hat tip.  However, if you are a GLD guy who bought at the close, well...............shit in one hand and wish in the other.

Long-John-Silver's picture

I don't play with paper. I only do physical metals. I just want the same thing to happen to Gold that happened to Silver. All they did was put a strong $40 floor under Silver about 25% higher than the upper limit they wanted. Silver continues to build for another rise. Mostly I just want this margin game to fail and blow up in their faces.