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Tomorrow's "Other" Event - A Sub-1% GDP Report
In addition to tomorrow's 10am headline event, which most likely will not tell us anything we don't already know, a just as important data release will occur at 8:30 am, when the BEA releases its second Q2 GDP estimate. Wall Street, which is now proven to be beyond incompetent when predicting GDP data (just recall the first Q2 GDP number fiasco), anticipates a number of 1.1%, down from the preliminary 1.3% announced last month. What is disturbing is that the far more credible analysts at Stone McCarthy, a firm that does not sell bonds or stocks, and just so happens is far more accurate than most sellsiders, now predicts a stunning 0.7% first revision to GDP. And remember: this number comes 90 minutes before Bernanke comes off embargo. What will happen to the market if the algos suddenly realize that the economy is currently experiencing its first sub-0% growth GDP quarter (the first condition of a recession), and there is no help coming from Bernanke. Furthermore, Wall Street has already started revising down its August NFP data, due out the first week of September. So with the next FOMC meeting on September 20 (followed by the November 1-2 two day meeting, during whicha week ago the Fed formally announced QE2), how will the market react knowing there is no help in sight for at least 4 weeks? We doubt it will be favorable.
From Stone McCarthy:
We look for the 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP (Friday 8:30am) to be revised downward to only +0.7% from the Advance estimate of +1.3%.
Our forecast compares to the +1.1% median estimate from the Bloomberg survey of 80 economists. That said, we are not alone in our expectations as about 8 of the 80 economists from the survey are in the +0.7%/+0.8% range.
About 1/2 of the anticipated downward GDP revision appears to be attributable to inventories, especially at the Wholesale level.
Final Sales are projected to be revised lower to 1.0% from 1.1% per the Advance release.
Exports should be revised downward, while imports are likely to be revised upward, a combination that should render a material downward revision to Aq Net Exports.
If there is good news to be included in this revision it is that PCE is likely to be revised upward, stemming from an upward revision to the retail control grouping.
Thus, household demand should look better than earlier, while inventories will look leaner. Typically, this is a combination that would be associated with an upward nudging of the next quarters GDP forecast.
Typically yes, except in this case when the stock market crashed and burned in the middle of Q3, which will lead to what we believe is the first negative growth quarter since the last recession/depression formally ended, at least according to the NBER.
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Correction: tomorrow's ONLY event....bitchez.
Don't forget the hourly updates on Irene.
As a libertarian, I'm hoping that the S&P and Nasdaq crash soon, so that my favorite presidential candidate (Ron Paul) can make a killing off his leveraged Nasdaq and S&P short bets. (RYVYX, RYURX, BEARX). Talk about playing with paper!
That's exactly what I want: I want a future president to bet against the US economy and profit from its demise. Maybe that's why he's so anxious for the US to default.....?
the mayham will come when the -650 NFP hits the wires, then its time to evacute the dance floor
Lets not forget the Hurricane???
all those jobs created.. from the destruction..
and then!
add in New York going down for a few days.. they are Thanking God they dont have to open after Germany Tanked today! WOW!! they will be believing that God really is on thier side now!
so, markets down? algo will churn but retail (Not that day traders are a large segment any more) will be closed..
I really wonder if this Hurrincane doesnt provide some real cover for the fucking scum bag Banksters to get things worked out?
Bankrupt Fruit of the Loom, buy physical cotton!
Equally absurd.
No, Fruit of the Loom is long physical cotton, not massively short cotton.
You might be able to bankrupt some massively short bank by cornering the market in cotton. But unlike silver, each and every cotton contract that stands for delivery is *GASP* actually delivered to someone, rather than, you know, being paid off with cash.
But you are too stupid to understand that, I believe. Perhaps you should go jack off to some concentration camp footage, instead?
HAHA well said Mosly.
This is disgustingly dishonest and manipulative. I don't love or hate RP. But Jeezuz. If you think it is going in the toilet, you are what, NOT SUPPOSED TO PREPARE?
What do you see to be optimistic about in this economy?
What do you suggest Ron Paul, as a patriot, should be doing with his money?
Exactly what he has been doing all along:
Dr. Paul's portfolio
Dumb shit doesn't have Great Panther. What a moron!
It's not dishonest, at all. If you don't believe it, look it up for yourself.
As far as disgust goes, I think it's disgusting how libertarians take such delight in watching the world burn. It's like you guys have some perverse political form of Munchausen by Proxy, where you embellish the problems of this country, try to make them worse, and want nothing more than for it all to implode. And, yes, I said "make it worse" because all the "solutions" the libertarians propose would transform our society into a cruel, survival-of-the-fittest, anarchist jungle.
Hyperinflation tomorrow! Hindenburg Omens! Depression! Food confiscation! Stock market crash! Death crosses! Death Panels! Czars! Default! Politicians assassinated! Hang Bernanke from a light pole! Death of fiat currencies! Death to the EuroZone! Hams in the backyard!
Seriously... it's a political form of Munchausen by Proxy, a mental disorder prevalent in Tea Partiers and Libertarians - and it's fucking disgusting.
Just because I disrupt your echo chamber doesn't mean I'm dishonest. I'm just putting a mirror in front of you guys. It's not my fault you don't like what you see.
Aww, you don't have any proof, so you tell your debate opponent to do your work for you.
Proves you don't have shit. Get the fuck out, you lazy, lying sack of shit.
Also funny that you blame the results of the parties in power, whom you implicitly support, on the policies that have been out of favor for more than a hundred years, the same policies which converted scum soaked fiefdoms into modern economies in perhaps a couple hundred years.
No. I'm just tired of doing your homework for you.
http://clerk.house.gov/public_disc/financial-pdfs/2011/8202687.pdf
It's at Open Secrets, too. I'm surprised how fanatical you are about RP and the COMEX, yet how little you really know about both. Not a day goes by where I'm not teaching you something about RP or the silver market, or whatever.
It's growing tiresome.
Few quick thoughts after reading your posts:
If the current vocabulary term is, "Munchausen by Proxy", perhaps next week's should be, "Normalcy Bias".
Why is it that you equate a desire for smaller government with anarchy and chaos?
Do you think we are actually on a sustainable path?
What exactly, are you so afraid of?
We're the ones holding the mirror, dumb ass.
MsCreant, I hope all is getting better for you and you house.
I gave you No. 8 and Libtertard above No. -36. Ron Paul is an honorable man and can do what he wants with his money. Troll above doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.
Nice to be back from vacation. We went to Alaska, I hope you did not have your house there... Brr...
Your schtick is getting really old, sir. Don't you have something better to do than troll?
Being short is a bet against fools like Bernanke. The thing you need to understand is that someone who is short is not creating the outcome but rather predicting the potential outcome. There is always the chance the short loses his money because he is proven wrong by the market. As long as we still have free markets the outcome is not known.
Um, we do not have free markets when the price, character, velocity etc of money is determined by the few for the many. But I do get your point. I think.
Show me where Ron Paul has such positions.
Then show me you blowing it out of your fannie, you butthurt little bitch.
Edit: also funny that your dumb ass still thinks the stock market IS the economy. You've been posting here under different names for more than a year, and you still don't understand the difference between stock prices and economic conditions. Talk about a troglodyte.
Ahh, one of the great pleasures of coming back from vacation is reading Mr. Mosley picking apart ugly trolls.
A green for you!
Excellent observations TMosley...
"You've been posting here under different names for more than a year, and you still don't understand the difference between stock prices and economic conditions."
The azz hat is afflicted with the same illness that effects all bankers and most pols...
But are they in for a shock when the bond mkt rears up and strikes them like a lightning bolt someday soon...
Ben and his experimental economy are about at the end of their road...
I was expecting you to blame tmosley for the sub 1% GDP print but I was pleasantly surprised that you didn't.
Speaking of freedom I was hoping you would be able to expand on something you said earlier this year. You stated that "Our quest for freedom from oppression is more important than any tragedy that might arise from it." Do you still agree that any of Ron Paul's actions that people may find calamitous, grievous, or dreadful are immaterial when contrasted to his tireless quest for freedom.
dooop
Go away, please politic somewhere else thanks, om
just started receiving zh tweets on my cell. lots of updates on irene. good stuff. thank you tyler.
Unwinding of unmet expectations is an event.
How effective will those Au margin hikes be in funneling fiat away from metals and offsetting the Bernank curling up in the fetal position tomorrow?
I can tell you from personal experience...that in the short run, those margin hikes will be PLENTY effective.
In the short run yes. It does make it seem that we have bought our metals high, no? Patience here, and we will win.
Those who have the most ounces will win. Just keep buying and buying when you have some extyra fiats, like I have for decades...
Who says there is no such thing as a happy rolling bearing? Even one getting older...
Maybe Ben is going to announce this tid bit... and spin it as a boost to US Economy...
" Astronomers have spotted an exotic planet that seems to be made of diamond racing around a tiny star in our galactic backyard.
The new planet is far denser than any other known so far and consists largely of carbon. Because it is so dense, scientists calculate the carbon must be crystalline, so a large part of this strange world will effectively be diamond."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/25/us-planet-diamond-idUSTRE77O69A20110825
Alas Poor Bernanke... For I knew him well!
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/25/to-qe-or-not-to-qe/
Come on Bernanke, give us 2.5 trillion in QE.
Bring on the Hyperinflation Train!!!!!
Can you please spare us from your endless promotion of your shit blog? It is quite obvious you attempt to post "red meat" for whatever is overheard amongst the noise of the commenters and frankly those who get it can see through your masquerade. Buy some click through advertising if you just cannot get over your hard on for the tin foilers.
Did somebody say market rally!?!?! Woohoo!
No such thing as bad news. The 'new new fundamentals' and all.
The founding fathers are turning in their graves. Oh wait, they already did and caused the "earthquake" in Virgina.
Oh mama mia Beno Beno mucho cashio monopolio
Everything has been worse than Q1, how did they come up with the 1.3% in the first place?
GDP should be positive (above 1%) and previous number will be
revise upwards.
How about that? Watch and see.
"now predicts a stunning 0.7% first revision to GDP."
Nothing is staining, To justify BS recession talk scenario we should
see 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP numbers. Got It???
Ain't happening,
Doomster boys... Keep quite..
Extra dumb tw@t! Fuck off, asshole! Go blow a banker or something.
fools are kind of blind... Train is coming...
Hey, did we finally pick up another troll while I was I gone? Just like the old days!
Your handle belies your true nature: foolish.
He just forgot to add the "sarc" tag to his username...
I give your analysis a greater than 50% chance of ringing true. What better way than to provide positive data to wean the momos off of the QE teat. I applaud your contrarian take. Try the spellcheck too.
I'm going with English as a fifth language.
Please, tomorrow I want to see a -900 points in the DOW... and +5% in silver. Thanks much.
I want Gold scream higher despite the margin manipulations.
My guess is that 99% of the board wants that, too. However, what's underneath is the truth about the paper gold guys, the leverage bid they put into the market, which you saw in spades over the last couple weeks. Those are the weak longs...and they get washed out by the liquidators...the sellers of paper gold who must reduce leverage and take profits as their costs rise.
If you have gold in your lock box, you get my hat tip. However, if you are a GLD guy who bought at the close, well...............shit in one hand and wish in the other.
I don't play with paper. I only do physical metals. I just want the same thing to happen to Gold that happened to Silver. All they did was put a strong $40 floor under Silver about 25% higher than the upper limit they wanted. Silver continues to build for another rise. Mostly I just want this margin game to fail and blow up in their faces.
As a buyer of silver, I will take the opposite, thank you very much.
I'll take both! Throw in some platinum, and yep, I am well diversified.
Disclosure, as my ally Mr. Mosley knows, I am more of a gold fan. Don't like that sir? Then please write an article for my blog, now that I am back from vacation!
Going to sleep now, although any tearful news out of Europe is suspended until next week after your regularly scheduled stream of appearances right here in the US of A. ECB and IMF will have their "carefully" planned words of choice over the weekend.
Which will have a bigger effect on he market, a low GDP number or no qe? If we get both, couldn't we see a major decline across the board tomorrow?
Although it seems like both of these could lead to a big rally the way the "market" behaves these days.
After GDP numbers come out, market rallies 350 points on QE anticipation, then after JHole speech market drops 600+ points on no QE reality! Lots of $ to be made on the the rollercoaster tomarrow!
Dude, drop that BS, nobody expecting QE3, It's just a typical
Friday.. Sill not sure why you maniacs so happy that your papa and mama
losing their 401k.. Guess what, karma always going to hit you back,
keep cheering about East Coast wipe out.. F*ckers..
papa and mama 401k is already gone they just don't know it yet. the sooner the crash the less money they keep giving to wall street maggots.
You're being sarcastic right?
A wipe-out of New York and DC would be a miracle from God. The oppression of the bankers and politicians would be gone. It would be a real economic stimulus for middle America.
Idiots come out at night.......
I know.
Well, maybe I don't like MoneyWise, but:
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
DOES have the S&P up 5.75 at 10:08 ET.
I still will take my gold though.
I'd love to see the Bernank just lose his shit on camera tomorrow...Just have him come clean in a nervous breakdown and start crying until the network has to cut the feed.
If anyone wondered what it would be like to see an insane asylum operate in real time.
You got it.
No worries. Trading will be suspended because of Irene.
Idiot, it's coming Sunday while market is closed..
Oh contrare, it's the expected hit on the Outer Banks that counts. Insurance cos, and all that.
Who gives a fuk about reality?
Learn French or don't try and use it.
Here's one, how about douche.
fuk?
+ another one.
Would that be "fuque'?
Try the frog legs in the lounge.
Then go stuff your head in the bidet.
I tried to learn French, but the tutor threw down the book, and ran away.
I was highly disappointed.
Learn French or don't try to use it.
I once took France then lost it.
-Kaiser Wilhelm II
Or try to learn English before using French.
Who the fuk wants to learn or use French, anyway?
Kinda like taking Paul Krugman serious.
I'm not convinced the market will tank on a lower GDP figure. When the market is looking for QE, and it certainly is at this juncture,
good news becomes bad news and bad news becomes good news. So if investors feel a bad GPD # enhances our odds of QE, then the
reaction could be positive. What a screwed up environment we are in.
Nice status quo. Do me a favor...should the market open up, load up on Netflix and Apple. Okay?
did a bug crawl up your butt and die?
QE3 ain't coming tomorrow. End of 2011 maybe. 2012 you bet.
Irene will 'become' quite the diversion.
QE will take a radical new form. It will not happen tomorrow.
The bullets are not gone. It will just take many more.
The problems rise exponentially, they require exponential doses of medicine. Continue to convert to real money. Accept the gift of time.
don't worry, we will blame Irene.
Don't forget the East Coast Quake.
If Wall Street expects 1.1% then the GDP report will yield a 1.2% GDP growth so that all the MSM will blare with ecstacy that the GDP has exceeded street numbers. Bank on it.
Since when is 0.7% a negative number? Oh right, in the land where there is no math or logic. Zero Hedge.
Are you referring to the "sub 0%" growth reference in the article above? I was wondering about that, too. Why is .7% percent referred to as "sub 0%"?
typo, or is this some economic thing I don't know about?
It's a typo, as the title of this thread clearly states "Tomorrow's "Other" Event - A Sub-1% GDP Report"
Ben never was a good reader, even when he quivers.
Parkinsons, ADHD and dyslexia is an honorable combination in our diverse society.
Listen dipshit...if you wait for the absolute negative GDP to position yourself, you are the sheep baaaaaaing in the barn. Your problem, primarily, is that you have no imagination...or ability to think two steps in front of you.
Might I suggest that you simply zip it until you at least SOME LEVEL of independent thinking ability?
Tw@t!
May I get you a Martini Sir?
Bombay Sapphire, very dry, shaken not stirred, wth a twist.
Here, try the quadruple, drink it, fast, you'll feel better.
It's what I'm drinkin' !!!!!
Smiles!
You just put me in the mood for my "Death After Midnight:"
4 parts berry flavored vodka
1 part absinthe
all straight out of the freezer!
The best glide path to a smooth bedtime landing...
If gin, then I prefer Tanqueray. However, I am a vodka martini guy.
Hello Ben. As always, you don't understand.
0.7% GDP growth.
0.7%+ inflation = Negative GDP growth in real terms.
Um, the massaged "inflation" number is subtracted before you get to GDP. Besides, it's the Gross Private Product (GPP) that really counts.
"What will happen to the market if the algos suddenly realize that the economy is currently experiencing its first sub-0% growth GDP quarter (the first condition of a recession), and there is no help coming from Bernanke".
This is because the release tomorrow is for 2Q (sub 1%). We are CURRENTLY in 3Q (which will be trending sub 0%).
ben_bernanke
Let's see, nominal GDP is x, real inflation is y and y is greater than x. You do the math.
He can't.
For God's sake, Tyler...can you please put Sacrilege to work on the Chinese Moron Filter [CMF]? It is getting harder by the day, and exponentially so, to tolerate these morons in the comment block.
F!
I know you better Cdad, cmon there are plenty better places to find an echo chamber. Just sayin, u have my respect from your posts. All gold silver rah rah gets old IMO. I appreciate critical thought and contrarian views.
Echo chamber? What are you talking about. My comment was pretty simple...straightforward, and unequivocal.
I have no problem with contrarian views, either.
What the fuck are you talking about?
Re-read your posts on the thread and tell me you still don't see where I am coming from. You are like a f'n attack dog tonight mang
Correct...attacking stupidity tonight. Sorry if it offends you.
I agree there is a large contingent of intelligence challenged, groupthink cheerleading individuals here, and I too am sometimes tempted to inform them of their ignorance. Your current attacks and definition of 'stupid' is apparantley anyone with an opinion differing from your own though.
Its seems like maybe you lost some coin today or the wife won't put out. But I digress.
BLACK FRIDAY -700
Is that all you got?
Ya gots ta makes them gets down on their knees and begs, "Please, Master Blaster, oh please with the quantitative ease!"
Drop that bitch -1000, ya gots ta dress to impress, set some records, boyz. Fly that freak flag. Gold +1900 (fuck, $2000), silver +50. Burn motherfucker, burn.
Then Ben steps out and sez, "Who run Barter town?"
ZH crew says, "Fuck you Ben."
Ben sez, "Who run Barter Town, Bitchez?"
ZH crew says, "Fuck you Ben."
Ben sez, "Printing embargo, Bitchez!"
ZH crew says, "Bring the pain you worthless ---t!"
And he does. And the purifying truth of the free market, for a split second, gives us hope and courage and unites us in the task that comes next-- setting things right. The joy is supreme, a suspended animation of the "one perfect moment." Peak truth, peak love.
And when it hurts too scary, too bad, the rest of the world will beg for it (Please with the quantitative ease), even as we sing the praises of the purifying fire. And he will "concede" and print and kick the can down the road for that little while longer, breathlessly waiting for the next strategy, high on the adrenaline rush he gets from escaping collapse, for one more hour, day, week, month, whatever can be managed for now.
And we will wail in despair, gnash our teeth, and remember what was lost.
...tears in eyes....
That was beautiful.
Sniff.
+++++
+10000
Although finviz has S&P futures up 6 and our Au only up a buck, I do not see that kind of Black Friday yet...
Remind me to eat Humble Crow Pie this weekend though, Seasmoke, if I am wrong!
It's getting to the point where I trust U.S. official numbers as much as I trust Chinese official numbers. " 0 "
Took you this long?
Third event.....who is going to want to be long going into the weekend with Irene on the way over the weekend? Three strikes and you are OUT!!!
I am golfing and vacationing and cannot be bothered. I am ready for another vacation.
Obama- Raping Tax Payers one at a time
Please! He's raping millions of tax payers, all at the same time.
I am Jobe, @20:21,
Why not?, Michelles already spent 10 mil of the taxpayers fiat on Vay Kays,and its not even Sept...........you go Gurlllll!!!!!!!!!!!!
And that's just for the grub!
Here is Irene now at the full power, ain't that bad considering
that Dude is in the middle of the "EYE"
http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/firsthand-...
When (IF) it gets to NY area, it will be just ordinary Tropical
storm.
Ones Hurricane hits the ground (NC) it will lose strenght very fast
and how many miles from Bahamas to NY? You count..
My bet, Irene will not even reach NY but will be lost somewhere in
the Atlantic 100 miles of the coast.. It's like hitting Tennis ball
against the board.. Ones it hits the Ground, it should turn into the
sea, fallowing less resistance... Watch it..
Is that the same "fallowing" that Obama has going for him? No wonder we are going down the shitter.....
Recessions will only be acknowledged when we are OUT of them. I expect nothing less than more hopium, to be revised down later. Much, much later.
+
<-- Krusty the Klown
<--Rick Perry
who would be a better POTUS?
Answer: not you, dumbass.
harsh -1
Really? You think the question is probing? I don't like Perry, but I am grown enough to separate te his candidacy from that of a fictional cartoon character.
Or maybe we should launch a write in movement for Krusty?
Good grief.
Ron Paul.
Or someone else / even Krusty.
Really?
1. How old are you?
2. What's the difference between Krusty the Clown and Rick Perry?
Obviously, I am older than you.
"but I am grown enough to separate his candidacy from that of a fictional cartoon character"
Krusty wants to force everyone to eat peas. Not just any ole peas, but his peas.
Ohhh, I thought you meant the current fictional cartoon clown...well, never mind ;-)
For clarification...nope...I was referring to ACTUAL cartoon characters.
Point taken...lol.
It's not my fault, I voted for Kodos.
take a valium and try to loosen up.
Martinis...two taken. But what happens when I loosen up is that I no longer have patience for morons. And these boards are absolutely polluted with morons these days. It is getting harder and harder to give a rats ass about the comments block.
And I suspect you know that to be true, buzz.
I see. May I offer you one of my special "Xanax Martini's." Trust me, I'm a doctor (of Computer Science...)
OK, my Rx for you (professional opinion):
50mg oxazepam chased with a Xanax Martini, folllowed by
10mg clonazepam chased with an entire liter of water.
Go to bed. You'll wake up sometime Saturday nice and refreshed, and can skip all these morons that lurk in the night.
I hate both doctors and their pills.
...I suspect you know that to be true, buzz.
:sigh: I try not to think about it. It isn't just the newbs who don't know shit from shinola. it isn't just the fascist on the dole disinfo trolls. it isn't just the lowering of the IQ or the yahooification. it's everything. I try to wade through it and let my little light shine but it ain't easy these days.
no problem with the "who is that guy" thing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhcGjsMEahU&feature=player_detailpage
Dan @ 20:23,
<
who would be a better POTUS?
>
ANYONE except what we have.
I don't know...I didn't really like Krusty the Klown when she was the last democratic speaker of the house.
Yeah, Jackson A-Hole
By the way. They didn't catch Daffy.
He promised vengeance on Europe.
What if he already had sleepers in place?
France and England would look like targets.
Germany and Italy stood back.
And Daffy is not Saddam.
Daffy already has form in Europe.
Lockerbie?
IRA arms shipments?
What else?
The Rebels have a $1.2 million Dead or Alive bounty on his head. Someone close to him is seriously thinking about that right now.
Let's see, 1.2 million fiat toilet papers to turn in a guy who can give you solid gold bricks?
i think the bounty is even 1 Million Pounds
And we/NATO are getting ready to "free up" over $1 billion to the rebels so that they can do God's.. er, Allah's work.
Maybe a dumb question, but is the 0.7% number inflation and population growth adjusted?
If not then the real economic growth number should be well in the negative.....
dam.....98 years of dealing from the bottom of the deck.......remind me not 2 play cards with any fed governor.......xoxoxoxo
Second!
<--- Quadaffy for POTUS
<--- Obamma for POTUS