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Tomorrow's "Other" Event - A Sub-1% GDP Report
In addition to tomorrow's 10am headline event, which most likely will not tell us anything we don't already know, a just as important data release will occur at 8:30 am, when the BEA releases its second Q2 GDP estimate. Wall Street, which is now proven to be beyond incompetent when predicting GDP data (just recall the first Q2 GDP number fiasco), anticipates a number of 1.1%, down from the preliminary 1.3% announced last month. What is disturbing is that the far more credible analysts at Stone McCarthy, a firm that does not sell bonds or stocks, and just so happens is far more accurate than most sellsiders, now predicts a stunning 0.7% first revision to GDP. And remember: this number comes 90 minutes before Bernanke comes off embargo. What will happen to the market if the algos suddenly realize that the economy is currently experiencing its first sub-0% growth GDP quarter (the first condition of a recession), and there is no help coming from Bernanke. Furthermore, Wall Street has already started revising down its August NFP data, due out the first week of September. So with the next FOMC meeting on September 20 (followed by the November 1-2 two day meeting, during whicha week ago the Fed formally announced QE2), how will the market react knowing there is no help in sight for at least 4 weeks? We doubt it will be favorable.
From Stone McCarthy:
We look for the 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP (Friday 8:30am) to be revised downward to only +0.7% from the Advance estimate of +1.3%.
Our forecast compares to the +1.1% median estimate from the Bloomberg survey of 80 economists. That said, we are not alone in our expectations as about 8 of the 80 economists from the survey are in the +0.7%/+0.8% range.
About 1/2 of the anticipated downward GDP revision appears to be attributable to inventories, especially at the Wholesale level.
Final Sales are projected to be revised lower to 1.0% from 1.1% per the Advance release.
Exports should be revised downward, while imports are likely to be revised upward, a combination that should render a material downward revision to Aq Net Exports.
If there is good news to be included in this revision it is that PCE is likely to be revised upward, stemming from an upward revision to the retail control grouping.
Thus, household demand should look better than earlier, while inventories will look leaner. Typically, this is a combination that would be associated with an upward nudging of the next quarters GDP forecast.
Typically yes, except in this case when the stock market crashed and burned in the middle of Q3, which will lead to what we believe is the first negative growth quarter since the last recession/depression formally ended, at least according to the NBER.
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Go-Daffy is soooooooooooooooooooo much more than we in America could hope for in a leader.. he is an Honest Asshole.. he doesnt lie about being all about self! or corporate (oil) owned and he doesnt pretend to care about anyone but himself.
"We need a Job Bank!" - Thus sayeth the teleprompter. "Like *nron's Gas Bank."
...
"No wait, that didn't end well either."
...
"What time does the Narwhal bacon?"
<-- Yes
<--No
On Laura Ingraham's radio show, Rick Perry recently commented:
"I am not an establishment figure, I dislike Washington; I think it's a seedy place."
Do you believe him?
So, you have a raging hard on for Perry or Ingraham?
Need a little time to think this one through? ;-)
Who has spent the most time in DC?
Perry or Paul?
Eat that.
Brevity bitchez ;-)
Bernanke will be taken ill suddenly. Recuperation will last thru gold and silver options expiration.
Ummmmmm, that was today, at 13:30.
That's what I thought but Harvey Organ said it was tomorrow. I should've known, he gets it wrong a lot.
http://www.harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
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If we cannot increase US revenues thru taxation and high unemployment.. time to attack other countries to steal gold, oil and other Silk Road forced planning.
The current system is unwinding rapidly.
What Is The Definition Of “Corruption”?
Everyday is viewed as their last moment. HFT & quote stuffing is about collecting the last penny.
Big Black - Bad Penny
The joke is on the architects promoting this "New Normal Market Phenomena". They are about to get there ass handed to them. The above song about getting FUCKED will ring with despair/panic.
touché
In regards to the non-farm payrolls report next week, notice that both Obama and Romney have scheduled speeches after Labor Day to spell out their jobs programs. Do you think they got advance warning from their non-public, private sources that the NFP will be bad? It sure looks like it!
Noooooooooooo, it can't be!!!! Noooooooooooo. Ya think? Nooooooooooo.
my favorite part about the fed announcement tomorrow is that i believe they do not know if they are going to announce qe3, and that if the market is down over 400 points on the dow in the first half our...they will announce it, and if not, they won't.
so you see the banks have some real incentive to create a selloff.
if they know qe3 is going to be announced, buy low and sell after the announcement.
if they don't, create a panic and wait and see, maybe the fed will make up their mind at 10. :)
Anybody for the Apple trade suggested here:
http://capital3x.com/?p=243
Seems perfect contra trade?