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A "Too Small To Matter" Greece Once Again Requests More Money

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By now it should be painfully clear to involved that the Greek economy is nothing but a zombie, whose funding shortfalls and other deficit needs are sustained each month only courtesy of constantly new and improved "financial engineering" ponzi creations out of the ECB, the ELA, and other interlinked funding mechanisms which are merely a transfer of German cash into empty peripheral coffers. And while the attention of the world has moved on, at least for the time being, from the small country which has been left for dead with the assumption that Europe will do the bare minimum to keep it alive, but not more, Greece once again reminds us that not only does it still pretend to be alive, but that the zombie is getting hungry, and want to eat.

The latest news out of Athens is that ahead of the Samaras’ meeting with Juncker tomorrow and Merkel on Friday, the Troika is said to have found that Greece’s funding shortfall could be as high as EUR14bn, or 20% more than previously "agreed upon."

Spiegel reports:

Athens has not been having an easy time coming up with the €11.5 billion in cost cutting measures over the next two years it has promised Europe. Indeed, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is reportedly set to request an additional two years to make those cuts during meetings later this week with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday and French President François Hollande on Saturday.

 

But according to information obtained by SPIEGEL, the financing gap his country faces could be even greater. During its recent fact-finding trip to Athens, the so-called troika -- made up of representatives from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund -- found that Greece will have to come up with as much as €14 billion to meet the terms for international aid.

 

According to a preliminary troika report, the additional shortfalls are the result of lower than expected tax revenues due to the country's ongoing recession as well as a privatization program which has not lived up to expectations. The troika plans to calculate the exact size of the shortfall when it returns to Athens at the beginning of next month.

 

The news of the potentially greater financing needs comes at a sensitive time for the country. Many in Europe, particularly in Germany, are losing their patience and there has been increased talk of the country leaving the common currency zone. Over the weekend, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reiterated his skepticism of additional aid to Greece. "We can't put together yet another program," he said on Saturday, adding that it was irresponsible to "throw money into a bottomless pit."

This was confirmed by Kathimerini which said that Greece is preparing a plan for €13.5bn cut instead of the €11.5 billion demanded by the troika. This is because the Finance Ministry has calculated that once the pension and salary cuts are implemented along with the reductions to spending, tax revenues and social security contributions will fall by about 2 billion euros, leading to a new shortfall said the article DB summarizes. Elsewhere Germany's foreign minister Guido Westerwelle said that the German government is convinced "no substantial softening of the agreement" with Greece is possible.

So will Europe continue on its merry way, pretending Greece does not exit, as evey month the insolvent country takes out of a few extra billion from the piggybank (thank you Dzyrmany), or will Europe finally admit reality, and sever ties with the Greek monetary black hole, as so many Germans now openly want? Citi's Stephen Englander explains under what conditions the latter might happen.

Linking ECB bond buying to Greek exit

An article in Der Spiegel over the weekend discussed a potential ECB intervention to cap peripheral bond yields. A more recent report sent out overnight shifted gears in addressing how the Eurozone prevents contagion in the event of a Greek exit. Dealing with Greek exit could be the more pressing Eurozone issue, because contagion has to be stopped on the spot if Greece leaves, or tremendous damage will be done.  A couple of months of excess financing costs are not pleasant, but are not fatal either, as German policymakers have been at pains to point out. Several clients have suggested as well that the ECB bond buying discussion may be more motivated by Greece than by Spain, even if it could be justified by either.

The article raises three possibilities for dealing with Greek exit: 1) unlimited ECB buying, 2) an ESM banking license, and 3) Eurobonds.  The argument is that if Greece is exiting you need an unbeatable policy recipe to prevent contagion or else you end up with the kind of financial market panic that the US did when Lehman’s went bankrupt without adequate policy preparation for dealing with the aftermath. Nevertheless, as the article notes, each policy has side effects and can affect incentives in an undesirable way. The big bazooka metaphor is wrong – the battle is not won by the biggest bazooka, but by the one that has unlimited ammunition.

The open questions are:

  1. Would the Europeans let Greece exit without the type of safety net discussed above?
  2. Is there a way they can keep Greece in without other countries lining up for similar treatment, leaving Stability and Growth Pact –II where SGP-I ended?
  3. If they had to choose between the ECB, ESM and Eurobonds, which would allow the most conditionality and least distortion of incentives?
  4. How would the euro react?

It seems to me that i) would be unambiguously and harshly negative for the euro, because the risk of contagion is enormous if depositors in other peripheral countries feel that official reassurances are not adequate in the absence of an impregnable safety net, and if investors feel there is any ambiguity in the ring-fencing of all other Eurozone countries. Letting Greece exit without a certain ring fence is imprudent, so probability has to be concentrated around keeping Greece in or letting it go but having a ring fence, although the possibility that there is a policy miscalculation and  Greek exit without an adequate ring fence cannot be ignored .

The realistic answer may be that Greece should be financed because it is too small to matter. However, it is too easy to say the EUR does well if they eliminate the Greek tail risk and, by inference, the tail risk pertaining to more deserving peripherals. Convincing other countries that have complied much more seriously with austerity demands, and who face the political and social downside of austerity, that they will not be granted the same indulgence as Greece, may be more difficult. So we may end up with a euro zone that is perpetually on the brink with perpetual threats that one country or another will be tossed or leave for noncompliance on fiscal matters. This situation would seem to merit a more than modest risk premium on the currency.

 

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Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:02 | 2723038 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Yup. Even the mainstream economists aren't feeling this rally.

MS sees 18% market decline: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/08/20/morgan-stanleys-parker-sees-18-...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:20 | 2723061 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Please Sir.....may I have more?

 

Oliver.....never before has a boy wanted more. This is uncharted territory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlJugdk4OGc

 

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:35 | 2723084 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

"I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a gyro today." - Wimpy the Greek

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:33 | 2723191 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Make that "pay you next month". *BOOT* ... the can soars another 30 yards! It's nearly to the endzone.

"The troika plans to calculate the exact size of the shortfall when it returns to Athens at the beginning of next month".

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:50 | 2723260 Dalago
Dalago's picture

Blackmail money.  Would there be a war if Greece doesn't pay?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:23 | 2723173 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

GetZeeGOLD

This was my first thought. The Greeks must cry a little and hold the ZBowl higher if you want to soften the Germans hearts.

MORE BOY... YOU WANT MORE.

Please Sir.... sniffle Sniffle Fucken Sniffle

So Fucked it is already Past history

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:04 | 2723040 TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

But where is Manos? Or was it Panos? That guys "funny" remarks about the Germans and spitting into their food just before serving made me cancel my family's trip to Greece - although we are not German. Too easy to "mistaken" us Northern Europeans.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:12 | 2723052 JackT
JackT's picture

Panos is the reason? Really?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:30 | 2723075 Nassim
Nassim's picture

Many years ago - probably before you were born - in 1963, I lived in Athens with my parents. We once went to a fish restaurant at Piraeus - the port of Athens. There was a big party of Germans at a neighbouring table. I saw the Greeks at another table whisper something to their boys. The boys smiled and went directly next to the table with Germans and pissed into the sea - perhaps 20 feet below. The Germans were thunderstruck and their table went silent. The boys went back to their parents and were patted on the back.

Not much has changed.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:09 | 2723121 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I guess the Deepwater Horizon Oil spill is less confronting for some people than a young child urinating in the ocean. In any case there is a possibility that the children wanted to relieve themselves and that the parents simply told them to pee in the sea.

Or is the sight of some butt naked middle aged sagging German nudists on Greek beaches more palatable?

Not much has changed? Perhaps you need to visit Detroit and other places where the changes are a lot more ugly than a couple of kids urinating in the sea.

In any case your comment was as relevant to the discussion as dandruff is to a bald guy.

Greeks will at the end of the day pay dearly for their idiotic and crooked politicians and for their desire to sell their votes in return for government jobs and contracts. But so will the world for its idiotic bankers who lent money and for idiotic Euro bueaucrats who gave subsidies with no strings or follow up.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:16 | 2723156 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Greeks will at the end of the day pay dearly for their idiotic and crooked politicians and for their desire to sell their votes in return for government jobs and contracts.

Actually, they wont.  For the same reason you cant squeeze blood out of a stone.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:35 | 2723203 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

With all due respect they already are paying for their mistakes, unless you believe that 23% unemployment, halving of pensions and halving the basic wage are irrelevant. This suffering will continue for quite awhile even if they are successful in defaulting.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 10:20 | 2723624 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

i think that what you wrote was exactly what the guy meant.

 

greece will default and they will not really pay for they mistake

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:28 | 2723186 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Don't mention Z war. and please don't mention Repatriations unpaid for the shit they went through. At that time I was 9 years old and I would have pissed "gladly" into their Chowder

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 20:27 | 2725813 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"Many years ago - probably before you were born - in 1963, I lived in Athens with my parents. We once went to a fish restaurant at Piraeus - the port of Athens. There was a big party of Germans at a neighbouring table. I saw the Greeks at another table whisper something to their boys. The boys smiled and went directly next to the table with Germans and pissed into the sea - perhaps 20 feet below. The Germans were thunderstruck and their table went silent. The boys went back to their parents and were patted on the back.

Not much has changed."

 

That'll teach those damn Germans not to spend their money in our country!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:11 | 2723046 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Re Greece, John Ward's 'The Slog' details a current tug-of-war between EU and the Americans, and why the Greeks have another offer ... given they have lots of oil reserves offshore, and rare earth minerals, and a geo-political strategic location ...

Either the EU prints and bribes and bails to keep Greece in the euro-zone, or the Americans and Israel come in with Ben Bernanke's printed bux to make Greece the new super-duper American 'ally' ...

So, according to Ward, the Greek gov't is getting cocky with two 'offers', and Merkel has to make the decision re weakening the EU and losing the Greek oil and mineral rights to the Americans, in addition to the euro-zone contagion factors mentioned above

Interesting reporting on Greece by John Ward, as here:

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/08/16/greek-crisis-why-antonis-samaras-...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:32 | 2723078 Nassim
Nassim's picture

There is no oil offshore. All such talk is empty nonsense.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:46 | 2723093 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

John Ward is imagining imperialist thoughts into the German political process and in the eurozone in general - France excluded. Sorry, that's "typical British". The correct models are industrialist, federalist and mercantilist (insert a statist if you want to disparage it). Of the kind leading to "if we lack something, we'll exchange something we produce to get it".

There are limits to what Uncle Sam can push the eurozone to - as we are witnessing since a few years. And Greece was always Britain's project.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:52 | 2723106 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

OK.....so now we're really gonna blame America for Euroland's trouble.

 

I just want to make sure I heard that right.

 

Uncle Sam.....you rat freakin bastard!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:51 | 2723473 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Actually, Uncle Sam started fuckin' with Europe when it reneged on delivering up gold for it's dollars, screwing Europe dollar holders.

So yeah, some of Euroland's troubles are definitely because of the US.

Thus the whole reason for the euro to begin with...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 10:23 | 2723641 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

i would say that Europe screwed herself cause they should not accept countries like greece and spain in the monetary union. that was the biggest idiotic thing they made

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 11:54 | 2723996 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

what is true today might change tomorrow. the sugar plantations of the Caribbean were more valuable than the entire North American continent, for a while. The territory of French Louisiana was less important than Canada and Canada less important than Martinique, at a certain point.

btw, it's Dear Oncle Sam. a bit of respect for senior family members. and then you can begin the rant

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:13 | 2723051 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Damn. This early in a thread. And I can't think of a thing to say. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:13 | 2723054 JackT
JackT's picture

Sux don't it

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:55 | 2723112 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's not a total loss......everyone gets a participation trophy.

 

If you just sit back and be quite......someone might even hand you a Nobel Prize.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:19 | 2723060 Colonel
Colonel's picture

How about the classic zombie line?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:56 | 2723115 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

ARRRGHHHUUUHHHH <-----that one?

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:59 | 2723122 Colonel
Colonel's picture

The other one, it has to do with brains.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:13 | 2723149 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I'll take what zombies like to eat for $1000 Alex.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:28 | 2723184 Colonel
Colonel's picture

In the horror movie genre, zombies are known to have a craving for this part of the human anatomy?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:35 | 2723199 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

The Brains, lightly braised and washed down with a light Chianti.

Do i win a prize ..... I hope it is a good one

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:28 | 2723072 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

I think your challenge stems from the news cycle being stuck on repeat for the last two years. All the old chestnuts (gold, bitchez, etc.) seem relatively stale. But you should revel in the fact that you still have the energy to read these headlines, and the financial means to remain connected. When those are gone, being early to a thread will seem... irrelevant.

How's this: Greece is as a building on fire, and like any fire, you can douse it in water in hopes of extinguishing the flames. The water does not suddenly make the building whole again, but merely quenches reaction, or failing that, prevents the flames from reaching the adjacent structures. The ECB may direct another hose or two at the fire that is Greece, but the longer it burns, the greater the risk of collapse or spread or both.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:34 | 2723080 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

huh?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:57 | 2723116 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yes.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:37 | 2723081 Colonel
Colonel's picture

Greece on fire is a good metaphor. But it seems the idiots that be grabbed whatever container they could find to put out said fire that had "liquidity" sloshing around in it and didn't read the label and it turns out it was floor wax.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:13 | 2723151 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

"Damn. This early in a thread. And I can't think of a thing to say. "

You are probably the smartest out of the lot of us. In any case this crisis could still be with us in 10 years so why rush.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:20 | 2723063 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

As soon as Draghi gets his ink and paper delivery for his blanc cheques it's covered!

If only that greek supplier dilivers the ink and paper for that German printing press...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:23 | 2723064 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Since the only solution is break up of the eurozone, they will destroy everyone in it before they do the right thing.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:39 | 2723216 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

A Winston Churchill quote (slighty Murdered) but whats good for the USA is good for every fucking Muppet.

Greece is not the Muppet... Z Germans are

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:42 | 2723225 i-dog
i-dog's picture

The same  applies to the States of the Union.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:23 | 2723067 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

The obsession over Greece/Eurozone funding/bailout/affairs is rapidly becoming "Yesterday's Trade" - the big artillery is slowly moving in a 180-degree arc toward the bonds/currency/equity of the planet's LARGEST (broke) DEBTOR NATION - yup you got it - THE U. S. of A.

The U.K./U.S. love-in is going to be targeted by the mega-wealthy Eastern oligarch/mandarin class as illustrated by the recent China-instigated Libor Scandal. The Sino-Soviet machine does not like Washington nor London very much and they are going to begin to "flex" very shortly.

Canadian bonds, gold/silver/ag ETF's are TOMORROW's TRADE.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:29 | 2723073 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The American Federal Reserve Empire will not go down easy.  But it is going down.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:22 | 2723171 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

Ber-holy fuck batman-ankes plan - in technicolor.........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzV1nj3EVIs 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:18 | 2723160 wesayukcom
wesayukcom's picture

You're right on that score, however it's likely the US ain't going to take the passing of its world dominace sitting down and will start a protectionist trade war of epic proportions as Richard Duncan alludes to toward the ends.

http://rt.com/programs/capital-account/richard-duncan-deflationary-debt/

Long live the good ole U S of A !!!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:27 | 2723069 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Obama should cut them a check.

Greece's debt is only $380 billion or so. That's what... not even 3 months of US deficits? No big deal.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:30 | 2723074 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

This is about sadism.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:14 | 2723152 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Some people pay good money for that.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:46 | 2723096 Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

"So wey may end up with a euro zone that is perpetually on the brink with perpetual threats that one country or another will be tossed or leave for noncompliance on fiscal matters."

Change may to September, and everything fits. 

 


Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:22 | 2723170 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Yes, and apparently that's quite bullish.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:22 | 2723169 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Greece's main source of financial growth is the German people. Until the German people decide Greece is not wothy of their toil, status quo bitchez.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:29 | 2723189 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Ben Dover to your new eternal masters Germany and France, Greece needs your money more than you need a cold shower.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:43 | 2723224 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Well written article, as usual.  The financial solutions are like a well-worn road map.  Everybody knows everything about Greece at this point, including the potential for dreaded contagion even though I question its likelihood.  The collapse of Lehman was unexpected to say the least.  The collapse of Greece is expected to say the least.

In my view, the danger posed by Greece is not the mathematical certainty of its continuation as a zombie country and the costs to Europe.  Instead, the danger is primarily cultural.  Europe has "evolved" into a conglomeration of nanny states whose people count on the sociailization of failure across national boundaries.  This desire for regional socialism is the real reason for creation of the EU.  Collectivism always sings the siren's song, and Europeans fell for it yet again just a few decades after the demise of communism on its own continent.

Socialism is not reconcilable with economic failure.  The Soviet Union disintegrated because the culture of collectivism could not survive its economic downfall.  The United States survived despite the Great Depression because it did not contradict the value of self-reliance at the core of capitalism.  Greece cannot be cast out of the EU, period.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:56 | 2723274 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Who is going to say... Greece is broke and more loans at ANY interest rate won't change the outcome.The coffers are empty in the Greek treasury. sure another loan will help.. for a while.... but a country can go broke.. like any man who finds expenditure is more than income wakes up after it is too late to change any outcome. It will be the Germans who say to the wayward cousin.. enough, sink or swim we wipe our hands of your ways.

It was good while it lasted but stick a fork in it, this things been cooking long enough to attract a Carbon tax

FUBAR.. got it 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:36 | 2723406 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

Greece is not going anywhere. The various heavies are jawboning to provide political cover for the 3rd Greek bailout. When push comes to shove, the ECB will print some more money to cover Greece's €14bn a year deficit over the next two years. It is the cheapest option to deal with the problem. Much cheaper than an official 3rd bailout or a Grexit.

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/08/19/no-grexit/

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 10:40 | 2723729 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

for those of us who have not yet mastered the art of avoiding making mistakes, the next best thing is to recognize and admit them, and correct them as soon as possible.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 12:44 | 2724182 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

A few points:

Nobody here has mentioned the negative financial impact of Greece hosting the Olympics,which may have gotten them involved in some shady finance deals to kick the can for a few years.

A small country could find itself with large bills for defense equipment,out of proportion to any real or imagined threat.

I think we are at the pre-Lehman moment (Credit-Anstalt?) where a large European bank will go under,spreading fear and contagion.I vote for Spain or Italy on this.

Can you say counterparty risk,boys and girls?  I knew you could..... 

 

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