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Toscafund: "Greece Exit Would Provoke European Social Unrest, Hyperinflation, And A Military Coup"
And here we are thinking we were bearish. As it turns out, compared to London hedge fund Toscafund we are rank amateurs. Reuters reports: "A Greek exit from the euro zone would be worse than catastrophic and could provoke greater social unrest, Zimbabwe-style inflation and a military coup, said London-based hedge fund firm Toscafund. In a stark note to clients, chief economist Savvas Savouri said introducing a new currency instantaneously in the wake of a euro exit would be impossible and the delay would lead to "a run on banks and evacuation of capital that would make what has already been seen as nothing by comparison". "The word catastrophic would not do it justice enough," said Savouri, who comes from a Greek Cypriot background. "Those who imagine some post-euro-exit stability would be restored ... quite simply fail to understand the magnitude -- social, economic and political -- of such an eventuality."" Well, at least he is objective... and tells us how he really feels.
More on what the end of the world will look like:
Savouri said he would expect the euro to remain the currency of choice in Greece even if it left the euro and for the official exchange rate with the euro to be quickly undercut on the black market.
He predicted a range of problems for the country, from hyperinflation, extreme difficulty for the government in raising money on bond markets and an evacuation of people able to leave the country, taking as much wealth as they can with them.
"Inflation in Greece would quite frankly spiral in a way resembling Zimbabwe's experience," said Savouri, who also predicted severe poverty amongst the elderly.
"The social unrest seen up until now in Greece would be nothing compared with what would be seen in the dawn of a new drachma.
"It would not be hyperbole to argue that the denouement of a Greek exit from the euro would be at worst the rise of poisonous political extremists and at best a military coup."
Last year Savouri produced research notes saying that reunification between North and South Korea was "certain" and that South Africa was flawed and set to "blow up" within the next 15 years.
Well, if the guy is right, it's been fun.
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LOL. Greece exit would cause social unrest and a coup.
But the status quo is waaaay better? LOL. Die already EUR.
He means inside greece, if they do crazy things they will be bombed away, that corner of europe has been bombed before
There's an obscure hedgefund calle LongPIIGSDebt4Ever Partners, LLP, that just told TheStreet that if Greece isn't saved by Draghi (and implicity, Merkel), China & Russia will launch unprovoked nuclear attacks on major American Cities, which will necessitate a similar response, and so forth.
They'd better get busy bailing out Greek bond holders (especially nouveau deemed ones), because that sounds ominous.
The party is over.
Under design now is the secretive means by which $1+ trillion will pass from the U.S. middle class to eurobank (and hedge fund) Greek bondholders. On deck is Italy's junk.
London based. All you need to know. Tosca is nobody.
No problem!
THe radical islamic muzzies are moving in anyway.
In fact I heard a name change is coming,
Swedenistan.
What a stupid and irrelevant comment
If they drove out the radical zionists it might be a good thing.
No doubt Ahmed! Asalam Alekem.
The radical zionistas blew shit up in Asia, Africa, Northern and Western Europe and North America all in the last 20yrs.
Oh wait that was the radical islamic muzzies?
No way!
UK up next with Mohammed being the number one baby name in 2010.
All hail the radical islamic muzzies as the overrun the globe!
Bout time to go post 1000times somewhere about misinterpretations isn't it?
Not going to make your daily quota and get enough to buy a pebble sandwich.
...The radical zionistas blew shit up in Asia, Africa, Northern and Western Europe and North America all in the last 20yrs.
Oh! You mean like, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Afganistan, Iran...
Last time I checked, our bodycount is in the millions. Don't think 'the radical muzzies' can compete, frankly.
Is it true??? Is Mr. Durden building an Army?
Billy... Don't be a GYRO...
Obscure (but funny!) comment -- not everyone's gonna figure it out. :>D
And that's a pita.
they and most of Europe have had one foot on a banana peel and the other n the grave for waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too long...
i'm with u...kill these fucking Zombies already...let the collapse begin...
Gold and Silver on deck please.........
Not until September. I have late Sept in the ZH global-financial-collapse pool.
"well, tosca's not for everybody."
I can't remember - is there a fat lady in Tosca? Has she sung yet?
only one thing is sure "there will be blood" this spring
ah well.....
yea but can they make a reality show around it
He must have some significant positions at risk. If his fund goes under he can always run for president. A former hedge fund manager with a dubious birth certificate seems like a winner to me.
Greeks with money have already walked. Greek banks supported with bad checks from the ECB to replace real deposits. Drachma can be issued in 5 minutes in electronic form.
Remember Lietuva, Latvia, Eestimaa.
There is no End of the World.
My great-grandmother was from Lietuva.
The Lithuanians were to first to successfully revolt against their Soviet masters circa 1991
Today is 21st anniversary when Lithuanian unarmed people withstood Russian tanks. 14 were killed.
Lithuania January 13th 1991
I propose some massive stimulus ie Printing of 10 Trillion Euros to stabalize the Greek economy.
This is the only sane solution to save the Euro.
"The only cure for the debt crisis, is more debt"
P. Krugman
Keynesian and Nobel Prize winner
Give every household a printing press and fuck it. Better.
The big suprise will be that England gets down graded as well.
Please, do tell, precisely when will this happen?
my God, I'm like totally in suspense (really, no sarcasm intended). I hope something happens soon, so I can go eat dinner without constantly refreshing the headlines in my browser.
For anyone who wonders "when", expect the news on default around march 9-15
And your reasoning is...?
Ouzo anyone?
malaka
Nessum dorma indeed
Er-errr wrong opera but right sentiment
Fear mongering again??? Greece will do what it must, and the sun will continue to rise in the east and set in the west. There will be no distruction. Bankers may not like it but life goes on. OPA!
Will someone please think of the banksters? :>D
Greece will survive EZ exit / default and see a new day. Countless others have. They didn't become Zimbabwe.
I've noticed that the overblown talk of the Euro dieing has been replaced with the talk of Greek exit, as it should have been all along.
This isn't only a tactical issue, it is a philosphic one as well. If a State such as Greece leaves the euro it will show the fallacy of a united financial front for Europe. It will leave Italy, Spain, Portugal, and others vulnerable to their people to question if the euro is really in their best interest. It will be a slow burn at first, but like all things in Europe, once the party gets started, it will get intense before the the sun comes up.
Well....Zimbabwe did.
Argentina got rocked, but still exists. It would be messy, but eventually better for everyone, if they did.
Yea, Iceland was supposted to be living in the stone age by now. Now they're laughing.
"Renew on Carrousel"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSUAAKFLoL0&feature=related
+1 for good sci-fi
if only all paper money had a blinking light on it, showing its approaching death, so that we the people could prepare accordingly.
(Paper Money would have started blinking like crazy in 2000, when gold was cheap. )
But no, let the people suffer.... tell them lies, obscure the truth... and simultaneously blame the people for all the mess ...
They could call the movie "Logan's Fund".
Logan's Rotund Bund Fund, Shunned
Argentina inflation back up to 25%. Could become hyperinflation again. They seem a bit masochistic there.
It takes a long time to beat socialism out of the public mind.
And Sambaland is also going down the drain. Sambaland president -and former marxist combatant- Dilma Rousseff has ORDERED that all costs relating to breast implants in the ongoing French defective fake boob scandal be placed upon taxpayers. Even if those taxpayers do not have tits themselves:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-rt-breast-implantsbrazil-pixl1e8cc23t-...
I suppose you could argue that the nation's breasts are a public good.
largely a barter economy now for the ordinary citizen and with diminishing supplies of essential commodities all we are missing is the hyperinflation which is being gratuitously provided by the ECB with US$ swaps. that should be the cherry on the parfait. thanks Goldman and JP Morgue. you rule.
It's just more threats.
Americans went through this when Hank Paulson theatened martial law.
I need a drink. My ass hurts.
Give us your money, or we'll burn the house down.
Bunch of suicide bankers.
Fuck 'em all.
Burn the house down.
And what about present conditions in Greece, where poverty stricken mothers are leaving their child @ Churches, and the country has run out of Asprin? It will only get worse.
src: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2085163/Children-dumped-streets-Greek-parents-afford-them.html
creative destruction.
If anything, Savouri's comments help convince me that Greece would emerge just fine.
SO WHAT?????? Its called payback.....come on..... a run on the banks....if they haven´t already...they deserve to lose it....This is going to be a long weekend.....more suprises to come....and how about those "folks" that bought all the bonds this week at such great rates.....lol...and the ESFS sells more next week....with the Guarantors all going down down down....lol...popcorn my butt...I am going straight to Everclear for this buzzz
Purple Drank!
at this point it is not just about bank runs which already occurred, there will be a bigger physical payback....someone will snap and i talk about governments not just people who don't matta
Threats to not dismantle Socialism and crony capitalism.
Those Greek people who have gold and silver can transact using them during the transition.
As many Greeks as possible need to get as much gold and silver as they can right f**king now.
I don't think london has produced anything good research wise since they came out with a whole bunch of children's tales of how to identify psychopaths and sociopaths after the dark ages.
This Toscafuck guy should sing his odd opinions.
Maxbe then someone would listen.
Maybe if you try singing it ....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNOIOqlOrLE
Fear mongering at its best...Tocasfund must be in deep shit if Greece is not bailed out.
and that's the other side of the coin, who else blows up w/o a Greece bailout?
So doing what they have been doing creates more unstable sovereigns and that's a better solution? What a bunch of dumb beaurocrats.
Yup...and gravity will cease to function and we will all fly off the earth and drift away in space to be picked off by Paul Krugman's alians. /snarc
that's why God invented velcro
I think a good, fast sprinting bank run would be good for us all. Get those bloated, sclerotic banks out, in their velour track suits, and make 'em fucking pick up their feet! Then , after three days of 'round the corner lines to withdraw cash, see which ones are NOT experiencing some sort of infarction. Yeah! that's the ticket, a real stress-test!
Big prob is that a 'new' drachma will be unacceptable to the Saudis. (Nigerians, Iranians, Kuwaitis, etc.) No more gas for you!
Inflation: Greeks will trade whatever amounts of drachmas to gain euros (or dollars), these would be used to buy fuel (for the precious cars). More drachmas every day, more and more. What will the 500 quadrillion drachma bill look like?
What will the 'new-new drachma' look like?
What about the 'New-new-new-replacement draccchma!' Greece and friends become dollarized. Greece will be for sale at yard-sale prices in dollars just because some car manufacturer in France or Germany needs to make another million euros (which they don't anyway.)
What will a gallon of gas cost in Greece (Portugal, Ireland, Spain, France?) $50. Maybe $75. Oil will be repriced so that the idea of wasting it ... will instantly vanish. (The price that oil should have been all along.)
The real solution to the euro problems is to get rid of the goddamned cars, all of them.
Nobody wants to do that, always choosing 'door number 2' and the outcome is going to be worse than being impaled on a stake.
"The real solution to the euro problems is to get rid of the goddamned cars"
uhm .... what?
It would be an interesting dress rehearsal for peak oil in the US.
Neo-drachmas would need to be backed up by something, or adoption won't occur. Hyperinflation occurs when there is no trust in the government. There is no trust in the Greek government right now. Too bad they sold all that gold to pay down debts.
Greece should be a cautionary tale to all countries. Give in to the banks and speculators, and you will be living in the stone age. No bombing necessary. Hold on to your gold, default, tell the banks to get the hell out, and issue a currency against that gold (possibly with high interest rates) and you go through a couple of years of hard time but emerge stronger. Of course, the IMF does not want the people of these countries to realize this.
BTW, Greece has been under military dictatorships before. They survived.
Did they sell "all that gold"? The figures I've seen say they have 112 tonnes.
What they should do is sell off some national assets, buy gold with the proceeds, and back their currency with it.
Of course, at that point NATO will shift their attention from Iran to the Dodecanese and tell the Turks they can take back what is 'historically' theirs.
Oil will be repriced so that the idea of wasting it ... will instantly vanish. (The price that oil should have been all along.)
This needs to happen in the USA also (and pretty much everywhere else!) So long, NASCAR!
It's safe to say that what they're doing now isn't working. Let's give Chaos and calamity a try. Papademos is a fucking-tard who the people didn't elect or have any loyality towards. Bankers lie. Why can't people wrap their feeble brains around that? Are we that stupid?
Ever see how penguins act at the edge of the ice floe? All hesitate to jump in the water (because they know a leopard seal, or two is waiting for them), until the first one finally gets hungry enough to risk a painful death...
Watching paint dry is faster than watching this Tragicomedy playout........get on with it already!
THE WORLD WILL END IF YOU DO NOT DO WHAT WE SAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
......zzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Talking his souvlaki...He needs
Dude, you are too flucking funny! Thank you. Again.
is that a naked Swinegela Merdekel??
I prefer this one of Sparticus, Banzai:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0f/Spartacus1.jpg
ICELAND
This is what the bankers always say to stay in control.
amazon buying NFLX Nestle buying GMCR etc etc now Q3 rumors get long fucking rumors....crazy world.....
Tanks in the streets blah blah blah. That line only works once. These guys are running out of tricks.
And there is nothing that says Greece staying in the EU and suffering through a decade of depression, so senior bond holders and EU banks get made half whole, doesn't result in exactly the same THING.
These fuckers can invoke MAD all they want, but they can't seriously say, the alternative will mean less MAD. Only that the status quo doesn't get mad.
"President Barack Obama will ask Congress on Friday for greater power to shrink the federal government"
To him alone?
Oh yeah, 'cause the Decepticrats are so good at cutting spending! Pathetic!
Look at volume. We close green today. Everyone bought the dip(s), right? Blah Blah Blah.
Thanks a lot Mr. George Papandreou
Yeah sure, just like Iceland fell into civil war! Bring it on the Greek default and Greek exit already -- all of it, bitches! Why not? The coup has already occurred! The current leaders were appointed by the banks, not elected by the people. A military coup would just be banker Plan B.
I'm watching what the Greek people do and wish they'd boycott the currencies and banks more and faster where possible. They're fucked either way. Time to dig in for a protracted passive resistance against the bankers and develop a strong underground economy to kill the banker sovereignty over them -- There can only be one. Boycott the currency and the banks. Maybe it will spread. The alternative is decades of suffering with emergence of a more powerful global fiat system.
Here's some more encouraging news:
:o)
what happens to the euro futures at the cme if the euro breaks up???
So print more money, buy more wothless bank assets, and appoint more unelected autocrats to rule the world then? Will that make it better? Anything you say.
Utter nonsense
It would rather help the economy and the people of Greece
but would devastate the unhedged hedge funds
Aye... follow the money
Spartacus (Greek: ?????????, Spártakos; Latin: Spartacus[1]) (c. 109–71 BCE) was a famous leader of the slaves in the Third Servile War, a major slave uprising against the Roman Republic.
Spartacus's struggle, often interpreted as an example of oppressed people fighting for their freedom against a slave-owning oligarchy, has found new meaning since the 19th century.
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Spartacus
He's Greek and his surname, "savoura" means "junk" in our language. No need to pay much attention.
A military coup is not possible, the army officers are simple state employees these days. What might strike you is that I started hearing people wishing for a coup to save the country. Reminds of the prelude to the previous dictatorship that we had, the political chaos between 1965-1967.
Social unrest is there up to a point. Athens is home to almost half the population. What will the restless revolutionaries eat after a few days of riots and looting? They will probably sell themselves to anyone that offers food (Oh, in the birthplace of democracy!). So don't make so much out of the pictures you see on TV either.
Articles like this that induce FUD about the looming bankruptcy and euro exit, appear now every day in the Greek MSM. People still say that they believe them, but inside they know it won't work. It has never worked. And reality will set in sooner rather than later.
And for every other mass-socioeconomist opinion that you might hear about Greece, hear this as well: Greeks are much more individualistic in everything we do, the blindfolded mob mentality is only temporary and eventually we have proven that we always bite the bullet. When everybody realises that blaming each other doesn't produce anything, and that noone will give money for our dying welfare state, we will get our asses up and start working. We might even be ahead of the curve in 10 years' time, while the rest of the world struggles with the depression that's just starting.
Stay tuned.
Hyperbole, I agree. Greece will find financing elsewhere if you happen to somehow get rid of the ECB/IMF. Greece will rebound with three years one the pain is taken...
Things have to get worse, before they get better.
Now Skistroni sounds like he has had a taste of the reality burger and is ready to shit gold - give him room - this is righteous. if the rest of Greece can throw off the slugs, the Ponzi Pigs, the Fat Cats, the Greasy Guys, the Short Armed Cigar Smoking Fatties trying to hang on to the whole pot - well shit we might have a chance - NOT GUILTY, CASE DISMISSED. DRINKS ON THE COURT!!
Bring it on, bitchez. Default now!
A little Zimbaweism would do them good.
Perhaps in Turkey now that Erdogan has arrested all the generals and put 100 journalists in jail but I doubt the Greek military would get US permission to stage a coup unless Goldman is going to hire mercenaries. The old games no longer work - more likely Greeks with education will emigrate - as always - and the rest will have to lower charges and improve service on tavernas and hotel rooms and raise the prices they charge Italians for oilve oil when those expensive Itralian brands blend with Greek and Jordanian olive oil to fleece Northern Europeans
lets see, I'm a hedge and own geek debt, I don't w2ant to take a haircut, but want tax payer bailout. I guess I will scream to heal about the disaster that will happen if I don't get my bailout.
Hello, this should just be a vote in Greece, period. I also think all these finance and central bankers people should be lined up againsta wall and shot. Sorry to say it, and I'm sure it will get me in trouble in some way (terrorist watch list), but lets face it, society has to get rid of these people for the good of the world.
Things seem to be going pretty well in Iceland. It also seems pretty clear that the vast majority of Greeks would be elated to be out from under the tyranny of their Eurozone and IMF overlords. It occurs to me that the only Social Unrest that would befall Europe should Greece finally do what it should have done a year ago-- default and ditch the Euro-- would be in the social parlours of the Financial Elite.
bring it on
I would say to those with a rather crowing attitude - be careful, it might be coimg to a town near you too - probably sooner rather than later.
The Greeks are going to be more resilient than many think, alot of their economy is 'grey' & not particularly dependent upon official fiat or government channels.
Greece is generally warm & food grows abundantly & many have small-holdings. With a cheap currency their tourist industry will boom - just a it did before the euro. Much of the Greek's
money has already found safe passage out of banks (esp. businesses), much gold is held, together with a culture of strong familial bonds.
Tell you what, the country I'd least like to be in if anything like this sprread, would be the USA. A quick glance at the SHTF/Survivalist type websites/blogs paints a very grim picture of
society over there - a sort of shoot first & ask questions later community spirit, from what I read.
If Greece leaves the Euro -which it has to- I suspect that the locals will all want to be paid in dollars.
They will not want drachmas, and wont be able to afford deutcheuros.
the never ending story....
The Traveling Salesman Problem, To QE Infinity & Beyond
The distance between dimensional and linear is perception of perceptions, relativity. Once you understand the implications of addition to 0, enabling separation of charge through algebraic construction and deconstruction, across the dimensional looking glass multiplexer, the rest is a piece of cake. Your senses, driven by DNA feedback evolution, result in the integral false assumptions, which enable derivative switching for you, creating the event horizon channels.
A fusion/fission reactor is a complete circuit with no/all perception, that is no insulation between the proton and electron of dimensional protons and electrons. The empire does not die; it is rebranded through the flux into a new event horizon. You are no more limited by the empire assumption than the sun is limited by the planets surrounding it. Space time is a perception, the false assumption creating the event horizons, which are simply stepping stones.
The law herded non-proprietary income into govt. proxy RE price inflation, resulting in negative feedback quantum backlash where the end of the consumption cycle intersects with the end of the geographic proprietary cycle. The problem is parental failure to provide children with the skills necessary to find or build their own event horizons, where their strings fit. The empire solution after the last heart attack was legal illegal immigration to reignite the ponzi, crammed down the throat of the pacific by the atlantic, from across the sea.
Each event horizon has a unified field equation in the equation of equations, with its own time. If you recall the static/integrated business I/O model provided earlier, each product sub-process is a converging waveform, with amplitude, frequency, and TIME. Everything adds up to 0. Left to its own devices, algebraic reduction, legacy corporate may only implode.
The Fed controls prices (inflation AND employment) by controlling currency circulation through credit channels, creating increasing pressure and decreasing volume under geographic saturation conditions. Communities cut their own throats by subsidizing big boxes with eminent domain instead of growing purely municipal interest, favoring individual responsibility with a gate that uniquely filters out empire judgment, which may only be implemented through a self-sustaining economy with tradable surplus, connected to the planet. Intelligently grant the kids credit, beyond the knowledge of the empire, as they pass though. We all make mistakes.
Each corporation has a unique fear impulse control mechanism, or culture, and it lays off according to noncompliance. The suppressed signal in the conformers create magnified impulses across the glass in their private lives, upon which all corporations prey in the form of media controlled consumption, in a peer pressure positive feedback loop. They run from fear to comfort addiction.
A black hole seeks to hide from itself by traveling in broad daylight. Corporate shorts disorder, calling the result order. Any change in direction increases the already maximized anxiety in peer pleasing participants. The question is not how you escape the prison. The question is where do you want to go with the integral. The derivative has no choice but to follow, and it is choice, individual responsibility, that the conformers are so bred to fear, creating the prison. The market result is that you bet on ignorance in a game of last man standing.
Without equations to program, the empire operators are completely lost. Think about a protein and a galaxy. When you apply rotation/torque to the two dimensional wave, you get the three dimensional helix, which gives you a spring, storage and retrieval of activation energy cascade. When you add branches to the helix… Space travel then is a matter of increasing torque and decreasing friction. Your motor travels dimensionally. Skip your rock across the pond and into the sun. Build your instrument/meter and the motor will appear. The empire torques your spring for you.
Choose the integrals that store energy of activation like rungs on a ladder. Your destination depends upon order of execution. The clock has keys and locks. Always complete the circuit beyond the knowledge of the empire. Temporarily employ relativity to separate torque from friction. Energy is neither created nor destroyed. It is stored in relative dimensions. Learn to see the dimensions in your mind’s eye and the equations will appear.
You are either a person with an IQ of 220 from the year 2645, or else working off a particularly potent hit of mescaline --- I can't figure out which. Maybe both.
...The distance between dimensional and linear is perception of perceptions, relativity. Once you understand the implications of addition to 0,...
I guess I'm not there yet.
HAHAHA Yeah the whole world is gonna suffer because the Greeks can't get their shit together.
Ya know what?
If the world does suffer, it has only itself to blame for: believing the Greek lies, believing the Euro lies and just believing.
Military Coup? Now there is an idea worth considering.