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Toscafund: "Greece Exit Would Provoke European Social Unrest, Hyperinflation, And A Military Coup"

Tyler Durden's picture


And here we are thinking we were bearish. As it turns out, compared to London hedge fund Toscafund we are rank amateurs. Reuters reports: "A Greek exit from the euro zone would be worse than catastrophic and could provoke greater social unrest, Zimbabwe-style inflation and a military coup, said London-based hedge fund firm Toscafund. In a stark note to clients, chief economist Savvas Savouri said introducing a new currency instantaneously in the wake of a euro exit would be impossible and the delay would lead to "a run on banks and evacuation of capital that would make what has already been seen as nothing by comparison". "The word catastrophic would not do it justice enough," said Savouri, who comes from a Greek Cypriot background. "Those who imagine some post-euro-exit stability would be restored ... quite simply fail to understand the magnitude -- social, economic and political -- of such an eventuality."" Well, at least he is objective... and tells us how he really feels.

More on what the end of the world will look like:

Savouri said he would expect the euro to remain the currency of choice in Greece even if it left the euro and for the official exchange rate with the euro to be quickly undercut on the black market.


He predicted a range of problems for the country, from hyperinflation, extreme difficulty for the government in raising money on bond markets and an evacuation of people able to leave the country, taking as much wealth as they can with them.


"Inflation in Greece would quite frankly spiral in a way resembling Zimbabwe's experience," said Savouri, who also predicted severe poverty amongst the elderly.


"The social unrest seen up until now in Greece would be nothing compared with what would be seen in the dawn of a new drachma.


"It would not be hyperbole to argue that the denouement of a Greek exit from the euro would be at worst the rise of poisonous political extremists and at best a military coup."


Last year Savouri produced research notes saying that reunification between North and South Korea was "certain" and that South Africa was flawed and set to "blow up" within the next 15 years.

Well, if the guy is right, it's been fun.

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Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:52 | 2061605 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

LOL.  Greece exit would cause social unrest and a coup.

But the status quo is waaaay better?  LOL.  Die already EUR.


Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:53 | 2061612 zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

He means inside greece, if they do crazy things they will be bombed away, that corner of europe has been bombed before

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:12 | 2061656 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There's an obscure hedgefund calle LongPIIGSDebt4Ever Partners, LLP, that just told TheStreet that if Greece isn't saved by Draghi (and implicity, Merkel), China & Russia will launch unprovoked nuclear attacks on major American Cities, which will necessitate a similar response, and so forth.

They'd better get busy bailing out Greek bond holders (especially nouveau deemed ones), because that sounds ominous.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:17 | 2061744 economics1996
economics1996's picture

The party is over.  

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:52 | 2062272 Havana White
Havana White's picture

Under design now is the secretive means by which $1+ trillion will pass from the U.S. middle class to eurobank (and hedge fund) Greek bondholders.  On deck is Italy's junk.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:43 | 2061920 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

London based. All you need to know. Tosca is nobody.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:59 | 2062014 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

No problem!

THe radical islamic muzzies are moving in anyway.

In fact I heard a name change is coming,



Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:36 | 2062199 Jolly.Roger
Jolly.Roger's picture

What a stupid and irrelevant comment

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:06 | 2062335 BigJim
BigJim's picture

If they drove out the radical zionists it might be a good thing.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:14 | 2062365 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

No doubt Ahmed! Asalam Alekem.

The radical zionistas blew shit up in Asia, Africa, Northern and Western Europe and North America all in the last 20yrs.

Oh wait that was the radical islamic muzzies?

No way!

UK up next with Mohammed being the number one baby name in 2010.

All hail the radical islamic muzzies as the overrun the globe!

Bout time to go post 1000times somewhere about misinterpretations isn't it?

Not going to make your daily quota and get enough to buy a pebble sandwich.


Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:40 | 2062492 BigJim
BigJim's picture

...The radical zionistas blew shit up in Asia, Africa, Northern and Western Europe and North America all in the last 20yrs.

Oh! You mean like, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Afganistan, Iran...

Last time I checked, our bodycount is in the millions. Don't think 'the radical muzzies' can compete, frankly.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:00 | 2061658 American34
American34's picture

Is it true??? Is Mr. Durden building an Army?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:05 | 2061690 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Billy... Don't be a GYRO...

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 22:37 | 2063962 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Obscure (but funny!) comment -- not everyone's gonna figure it out. :>D

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 22:43 | 2063975 akak
akak's picture

not everyone's gonna figure it out

And that's a pita.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:11 | 2061713 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

they and most of Europe have had one foot on a banana peel and the other n the grave for waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too long...

i'm with u...kill these fucking Zombies already...let the collapse begin...

Gold and Silver on deck please.........

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:17 | 2061741 s2man
s2man's picture

Not until September.  I have late Sept in the ZH global-financial-collapse pool.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:16 | 2061735 jon
jon's picture

"well, tosca's not for everybody."

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:07 | 2062344 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I can't remember - is there a fat lady in Tosca? Has she sung yet?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:36 | 2062198 pkea
pkea's picture

only one thing is sure "there will be blood" this spring

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:53 | 2061609 laspeyres
laspeyres's picture

ah well.....

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:55 | 2061622 uno
uno's picture

yea but can they make a reality show around it

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:55 | 2061624 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

He must have some significant positions at risk. If his fund goes under he can always run for president. A former hedge fund manager with a dubious birth certificate seems like a winner to me.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:56 | 2061632 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Greeks with money have already walked. Greek banks supported with bad checks from the ECB to replace real deposits. Drachma can be issued in 5 minutes in electronic form.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:57 | 2061635 vitoox
vitoox's picture

Remember Lietuva, Latvia, Eestimaa.
There is no End of the World.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:59 | 2061651 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

My great-grandmother was from Lietuva.

The Lithuanians were to first to successfully revolt against their Soviet masters circa 1991

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:16 | 2061736 vitoox
vitoox's picture

Today is 21st anniversary when Lithuanian unarmed people withstood Russian tanks. 14 were killed.

Lithuania January 13th 1991

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:57 | 2061636 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

I propose some massive stimulus ie Printing of 10 Trillion Euros to stabalize the Greek economy.

This is the only sane solution to save the Euro.

"The only cure for the debt crisis, is more debt"

P. Krugman

Keynesian and Nobel Prize winner

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:04 | 2061688 agent default
agent default's picture

Give every household a printing press and fuck it.  Better.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:58 | 2061640 gianakt
gianakt's picture

The big suprise will be that England gets down graded as well.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:01 | 2061664 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please, do tell, precisely when will this happen?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:08 | 2061702 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

my God, I'm like totally in suspense (really, no sarcasm intended). I hope something happens soon, so I can go eat dinner without constantly refreshing the headlines in my browser.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:41 | 2062211 pkea
pkea's picture

For anyone who wonders "when", expect the news on default around march 9-15

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:09 | 2062357 BigJim
BigJim's picture

And your reasoning is...?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 11:58 | 2061644 ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

Ouzo anyone?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:56 | 2061993 constitutionalist
constitutionalist's picture


Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:02 | 2061648 moriarty
moriarty's picture

Nessum dorma indeed


Er-errr wrong opera but right sentiment

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:00 | 2061655 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Fear mongering again??? Greece will do what it must, and the sun will continue to rise in the east and set in the west. There will be no distruction. Bankers may not like it but life goes on. OPA!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 22:40 | 2063970 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Will someone please think of the banksters? :>D

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:00 | 2061657 bahaar
bahaar's picture

Greece will survive EZ exit / default and see a new day.    Countless others have.  They didn't become Zimbabwe.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:09 | 2061709 Yikes
Yikes's picture

I've noticed that the overblown talk of the Euro dieing has been replaced with the talk of Greek exit, as it should have been all along.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:22 | 2061773 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

This isn't only a tactical issue, it is a philosphic one as well.  If a State such as Greece leaves the euro it will show the fallacy of a united financial front for Europe.  It will leave Italy, Spain, Portugal, and others vulnerable to their people to question if the euro is really in their best interest.  It will be a slow burn at first, but like all things in Europe, once the party gets started, it will get intense before the the sun comes up.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:45 | 2062234 aardvarkk
aardvarkk's picture

Well....Zimbabwe did.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:02 | 2061669 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Argentina got rocked, but still exists. It would be messy, but eventually better for everyone, if they did.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:16 | 2061720 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

Yea, Iceland was supposted to be living in the stone age by now. Now they're laughing.

"Renew on Carrousel"


Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:33 | 2061834 margaris
margaris's picture

+1 for good sci-fi

if only all paper money had a blinking light on it, showing its approaching death, so that we the people could prepare accordingly.

(Paper Money would have started blinking like crazy in 2000, when gold was cheap. )

But no, let the people suffer.... tell them lies, obscure the truth... and simultaneously blame the people for all the mess ...



Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:43 | 2062220 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

They could call the movie "Logan's Fund".

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 15:21 | 2062675 akak
akak's picture

Logan's Rotund Bund Fund, Shunned

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:53 | 2062279 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Argentina inflation back up to 25%. Could become hyperinflation again. They seem a bit masochistic there.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:11 | 2062371 BigJim
BigJim's picture

It takes a long time to beat socialism out of the public mind.

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